期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 短期尚未企稳，单边继续观望，多 IF 空 IM 继续持有 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 报告内容摘要: 1) 国家统计局公布数据显示，3 月份，我国制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和 综合 PMI 分别为 50.5%、50.8%和 51.4%，比上月上升 0.3、0.4 和 0.3 个百分点，均连续两个月上升。 2) 美国总统特朗普将于周三公布对等关税政策。据悉，特朗普正在考虑对 所有进口产品征收 20%的特别关税。 1) 盘面追踪：上个交易日，A股震荡下跌。四大指数中，上证50收跌0.53%， 沪深 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, but weather changes still need attention. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, widening the supply - demand gap [2] - For cotton, domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the textile industry's market outlook is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Sugar - **Production and Sales**: As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, up 1.77 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sales were 4.75 million tons, up 0.97 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than last year [2] - **Weather Impact**: In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth, but subsequent weather changes need to be monitored [2] - **International Market**: Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, leading to a wider international supply - demand gap [2] - **Price and Spread**: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.10%, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and the price in Kunming remained unchanged. Some sugar spreads and basis showed significant changes, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 11.57% and the sugar 01 basis increasing by 19.63% [4] - **Import and Profit**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [4] - **Options and Warehouse Receipts**: The implied volatility of some sugar options was provided, and the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025 [4] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating [2] - **International Market**: The cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [2] - **Sowing Outlook**: The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] - **Price and Spread**: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US cotton decreased by 0.03%, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged. Some cotton spreads and basis showed changes, such as CF01 - 05 decreasing by 7.14% and the cotton 01 basis increasing by 7.67% [4] - **Import and Warehouse Receipts**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.27% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility of some cotton options was provided [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Bearish [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "trade-in" policy promotes automobile consumption, but the demand for nickel and zinc remains insufficient [1] - The seasonal tightness of nickel ore will improve after April, and the overall supply of pure nickel remains high. The profit of stainless steel has been repaired, but the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. It is recommended to roll short [2] - The supply side of zinc has fully loosened. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - As of March 28, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile "trade - in" has exceeded 1.769 million. The cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars this year have exceeded 2.05 million, a year - on - year increase of about 34% [1] 2. Nickel & Stainless Steel - The price of nickel ore has a small seasonal increase due to the rainy season in the Philippines, but there is no continuous upward momentum. The overall supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [2] - The production cost of electrowinning nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before [2] - The profit of stainless steel has been significantly repaired, but the repair has slowed down since the second half of March, and the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The operation suggestion is to roll short [2] 3. Zinc - In terms of TC changes, the supply of the ore end has fully loosened. After March, the rebound of TC prices has stagnated. The smelting profit has been rapidly repaired, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting enterprises' production is expected to be high [2] - Galvanized sheet manufacturers have resumed production, and the weekly output has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. The operation suggestion is to short [2] 4. Charts and Data (Not Detailed in Text, Only Mentioned) - There are charts about macro indicators (exchange rate, Dow Jones Index), spot premiums and discounts (for nickel, zinc, lead, stainless steel), spread analysis, inventory analysis, profit, and import profit and loss [4][6][24][33][45][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and slightly bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are at a historical low, with weak fundamentals but potential improvement in the photovoltaic industry, currently in a multi - empty game phase; polysilicon prices are likely to rise, with production at the bottom stabilizing and downstream demand showing signs of improvement [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Xinjiang sample silicon factories have a weekly output of 38,585 tons and a weekly operating rate of 80%, with a slight increase compared to last week due to the release of resumed production capacity. An Xinjiang leading enterprise plans to conduct large - scale production cuts on March 31 [1] - In February, industrial silicon production dropped to 289,500 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from January. Sichuan and Yunnan's production has reached historical lows. Although some production capacity in the northwest has resumed, the cost support for silicon prices is limited as the price has fallen below the cost line [2] Downstream Demand Side - Polysilicon production decreased in February, and the demand for industrial silicon is on a downward trend but may stabilize marginally; some organic silicon DMC manufacturers may cut production, reducing the demand for industrial silicon; the demand for industrial silicon from alloy silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory decreased by 5,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is 594,000 tons [2] Trading Logic - Industrial silicon production remains high, downstream polysilicon production stabilizes, organic silicon consumption of industrial silicon weakens, and silicon - aluminum alloy consumption of industrial silicon remains stable. High inventory suppresses industrial silicon prices. The price is in a multi - empty game phase [4] Operation Suggestion - Wait and see [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - Polysilicon spot prices are stable. In February, production decreased to 90,000 tons. Under industry self - discipline, production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization and recovery, prices have increased slightly, and inventory is in a destocking cycle. The production schedule of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which supports polysilicon prices [3] Inventory - Although polysilicon inventory has slightly increased due to the Spring Festival, it is still in the destocking cycle [3] Trading Logic - Polysilicon production stabilizes at the bottom, downstream demand is expected to improve, and inventory is in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for an increase, showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4] Operation Suggestion - Buy on dips [4]

报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-03-28 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 棉市观望情绪较浓，郑棉短期震荡观望 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 交割压力或减轻，钢材去库幅度加大，煤焦震荡 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 28 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.央行表示，中国将根据国内外经济金融形势，择机降准降息。 2.1-2 月，全国规上工业企业 利润同比下降 0.3%，降幅较 2024 年全年收窄 3 哥百分点。 3.大商所优化焦炭期货合约，增加平衡水指标，平衡水≤1%的焦炭视为干熄焦，将 干熄焦定为标 准品，平衡水>1%的作为替代品 ，设置贴水 110 元/吨。该调整自 J2604 合约之后执行。 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - The 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end, with northern beet sugar mills shut down and southern cane sugar mills entering the crushing stage. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but weather changes still need to be monitored. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production also fell short of expectations, widening the international supply-demand gap [1] - In the domestic cotton market, commercial inventories are at a five-year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From March 25 to March 26, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.92%, from $19.55 to $19.37; the price of US cotton increased by 0.94%, from $65.13 to $65.74 [3] - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,150 yuan, while in Kunming it increased by 0.08%, from 6,000 yuan to 6,005 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01%, from 3,281 to 3,280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.68%, from 14,650 yuan to 14,550 yuan [3] - The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 1.59%, SR05 - 09 decreasing by 11.21%, etc. [3] Basis and Import Price - The basis of sugar and cotton futures contracts also changed, for example, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 17.35%, and the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 3.86% [3] - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.75 from March 25 to March 26, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 864 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of sugar and cotton options contracts is different, such as SR505C6100 with an implied volatility of 0.1102 and CF505C13600 with an implied volatility of 0.0767 [3] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,950, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.26%, from 9,141 to 9,117 [3]

期货研究报告 商品研究/金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 原油早报 走势评级： 原油——震荡 张秀峰—化工研究员 从业资格证号：Z0011152 投资咨询证号：F0289189 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 王诗朦—原油研究员 从业资格证号：F03121031 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：wangshimeng@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 隔夜维持反弹 但动能略有衰减 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 27 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 收盘数据： 至 3 月 26 日收盘，2025 年 5 月 WTI 涨 0.65 报 69.65 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%；2025 年 5 月布伦特原油涨 0.77 报 73.79 美元/桶，涨幅 1.05%。中国 原油期货 SC 主力 2505 收涨 2.1 元/桶，至 539.4 元/桶。 市场逻辑： ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 成交量下降，观望情绪再起，短期仍是调整阶段 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 03 月 26 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 核心逻辑小结： 近期指数回调，程度上基本回吐了 3 月 14 日涨幅，交易情绪再次出现降温。 一方面， 3 月以来指数连续震荡，板块热点扩散，多空分歧强化的背景下， 本次回踩符合我们的预期。另一方面，短期恐慌情绪释放有限，体现在成交 缩量，期权隐含波动率回落等方面，预计资金还会在这个位置附近博弈一段 时间，对应走势偏弱震荡。我们认为，当前恰逢两会后的政策空窗期，叠加 上市公司财报披露在即，股指继续处于调整阶段。此外，考虑到估值水平仍 处于 2024 ...

商品研究 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 多空要素再平衡，郑棉短期震荡观望 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-03-26 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：在国内市场，棉花商业库存仍然处于近五年来的最高水平，供给相 对充足。 ...