汇丰 银行在一份报告中称，美国大量积压的铜库存可能会被消耗，从而削弱美国对铜的需求。由于买 家预计美国的铜关税会比实际更宽泛，纽约商品交易所的库存攀升至 21 年来的最高水平。汇丰预测， 2025 年铜价平均为每磅 4.24 美元，2026 年为每磅 4.15 美元。该银行表示："近期铜市场的动态非常清 楚地表明了贸易政策的不确定性如何影响经济、市场和价格。""美国和海外铜价之间的巨大价差也创造 了大量的交易机会，并显著提高了 大宗商品市场的交易利润。"伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价上涨 0.3%，至每吨 9663 美元。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 汇丰银行在一份报告中说，美国积累的大量铜库存现在可能会减少，削弱美国对铜的需求。因买家预期 美国对铜征收更大关税，当前COMEX铜库存攀升至21年高位。汇丰银行预测，2025年铜价平均为每磅 4.24美元，2026年为每磅4.15美元。 ...

金十数据8月4日讯，汇丰银行在一份报告中说，美国积累的大量铜库存现在可能会减少，削弱美国对铜 的需求。纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存攀升至21年高位，因买家预期美国对铜征收更大关税。汇 丰银行预测，2025年铜价平均为每磅4.24美元，2026年为每磅4.15美元。该行表示："近期铜市场的发展 非常清楚地说明，贸易政策的不确定性会如何影响经济、市场和价格。""美国和海外铜价之间的价差大 幅扩大，也创造了大量的交易机会，并显著提高了大宗商品市场的交易利润。" 市场分析：美国铜需求疲软，库存减少 ...

智通财经APP获悉，7月30日,理想汽车-W（02015）、石药集团（01093）、比亚迪股份（01211）南向 资金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入20.80 亿、8.62 亿、6.43 亿 汇丰控股（00005）、安踏体育（02020）、中国移动（00941）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前三，分 别净流出-4.02 亿、-3.01 亿、-2.66 亿 在净流入比方面，天立国际控股（01773）、中国船舶租赁（03877）、郑州银行（06196）以55.55%、 51.95%、50.98%位列市场前三。 | 股票名称 | 净流出(元)↓ | 净流出比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇丰控股(00005) | -4.02 亿 | -7.26% | 96.950（-3.82%） | | 安踏体育(02020) | -3.01 亿 | -28.84% | 93.200（+1.14%） | | 中国移动(00941) | -2.66 亿 | -14.50% | 87.000（+0.58%） | | 康方生物(09926) | -2.20 亿 | -9.58% | 152.8 ...

Group 1 - The European banking sector is experiencing a significant turnaround, moving from being seen as a "market orphan" to a favored investment, driven by rising long-term interest rates and improved economic outlook [1][3] - Major European bank stocks have reached their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis, with HSBC, Barclays, Santander, and UniCredit hitting multi-year peaks [1][3] - The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has risen by 34% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. counterparts and poised for its best annual performance since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the recovery to higher interest rates, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and banks' efficiency measures, which have significantly boosted net interest income [3][4] - The yield curve in Germany and the UK has created an excellent profit environment for banks, with the 30-year bond yields exceeding 2-year yields by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively [4] Group 3 - Despite the stock price increases, many investors still view European bank stocks as undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10, lower than U.S. peers at over 13 [5] - Many European banks have recently returned to their book value, indicating potential for further valuation convergence compared to global counterparts [5][6] Group 4 - There are concerns about the sustainability of the current rally, with some market participants questioning whether the upward momentum can continue without further increases in long-term interest rates [6] - Political resistance has hindered potential industry consolidation, limiting growth prospects for the sector [6] - Despite these challenges, European banks still hold valuation discounts compared to global peers, suggesting potential for future appreciation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European banking sector, once considered a "market orphan," is experiencing a significant resurgence, driven by rising long-term interest rates and improved economic prospects [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major European bank stocks have reached their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis, with HSBC, Barclays, Santander, and UniCredit hitting multi-year peaks [2]. - The European Stoxx 600 Bank Index has risen 34% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. counterparts and poised for its best annual performance since 2009 [2]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The European banking industry is undergoing a transformation from being viewed as a "market orphan" to a favored sector, as noted by Schroders' analyst Justin Bisseker [4]. - After over a decade of being criticized for insufficient capital and facing regulatory pressures, European banks are now benefiting from higher interest rates and a favorable macroeconomic environment [4]. Group 3: Profitability Drivers - Central banks have raised interest rates to combat inflation, significantly increasing banks' net interest income, which is crucial for profitability [4]. - For instance, the yield on Germany's 30-year government bonds is currently 1.3 percentage points higher than that of 2-year bonds, while in the UK, the spread exceeds 1.5 percentage points, creating an excellent profit environment for banks [5]. Group 4: Valuation Appeal - Despite the substantial rise in stock prices, many investors still view European bank stocks as "cheap," with Pictet's chief strategist highlighting their low valuations and unique advantages in a recovering domestic demand environment [6]. - According to FactSet, many European banks' valuations have just returned to their book values, while U.S. counterparts like JPMorgan have a price-to-book ratio of about 2.4 times [6]. - Bloomberg data indicates that the expected price-to-earnings ratio for European banks is around 10 times, lower than the over 13 times for U.S. peers, with many European banks now achieving a tangible return on equity (ROTE) exceeding 10% [6]. Group 5: Future Challenges - There are uncertainties regarding the sustainability of the current rally in European banks without continued increases in long-term interest rates [7]. - Market sentiment is shifting, with some analysts suggesting that the best times for banks may be behind them, despite the current favorable conditions [7]. - Additionally, attempts at industry consolidation, such as BBVA's bid for Sabadell and UniCredit's interest in BPM, have faced political obstacles, limiting growth potential [7]. - However, Bisseker from Schroders notes that European banks still have valuation discounts compared to global peers, indicating potential for further valuation convergence in the future [7].

Core Insights - In July, Hong Kong listed companies actively engaged in share buybacks, with a total buyback amount exceeding 10 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Buyback Activity - A total of 73 Hong Kong listed companies conducted share buybacks in July, repurchasing 808 million shares [1] - The total buyback amount reached 10.035 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Leading Companies - The top five companies by buyback amount were Tencent Holdings (3.503 billion HKD), AIA Group (2.704 billion HKD), HSBC Holdings (2.221 billion HKD), WuXi Biologics (597 million HKD), and Yum China (138 million HKD) [1] - These five companies accounted for over 90% of the total buyback amount in July [1] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The share buybacks were primarily concentrated in the sectors of internet technology, finance, healthcare, and non-essential consumer goods [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,337.44, down by 170.37 points or 0.70% [1] - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 96.348, up by 1.15% compared to the Hong Kong close, while Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 533.076, down by 0.36% [2] Group 2 - The ADR performance of major companies showed mixed results, with Tencent Holdings down by 0.36% to HKD 533.076, and HSBC Holdings up by 1.15% to HKD 96.348 [3] - Other notable declines included BYD Company down by 3.74% to HKD 111.859, and Kuaishou Technology down by 5.30% to HKD 70.648 [3]

Core Viewpoints - After excluding the significant impact of the impairment from the Bank of Communications, HSBC's Q2 revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a robust underlying trend [1][2][17] - The impairment is a one-time disturbance and will not affect dividend amounts or capital [1][4][17] Financial Performance - HSBC's Q2 2025 revenue, after excluding significant items, was $17.657 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing market expectations [1][3] - The net profit after tax for Q2 2025 was $7.707 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, also exceeding market consensus [1][3][4] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 5 basis points to 2.41% in Q2 2025 [1] Income Breakdown - Net interest income was $10.714 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2%, but the decline is narrowing and exceeded market expectations [3][9] - Non-interest income continued to grow strongly, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, surpassing market expectations by 12 percentage points [3][8] - Wealth management and transaction banking non-interest income grew by 23% and 6% respectively [3][8] Cost Management - Credit costs slightly increased but remain manageable, with a guidance adjustment to 40 basis points due to pressures in Hong Kong's commercial real estate [4][13] - Operating costs were controlled effectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% after excluding significant items, which is lower than revenue growth [4][15] Future Outlook - HSBC maintains its guidance for 2025 net interest income at $42 billion, with expectations for stable loan growth and limited impact from Hibor fluctuations [5][9] - The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to remain around 15%, supported by strong non-interest income and effective cost management [6][17] - The bank plans to continue its strategy of divesting non-core businesses to enhance focus on global transaction banking and wealth management [15][17] Dividend and Share Buyback - HSBC declared a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q2 2025, with a total cash return of $0.22 per share [1][6] - The bank announced a $3 billion share buyback, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns [6][16] Strategic Positioning - HSBC is positioned as a key beneficiary of the restructuring of international supply chains and the global allocation of wealth by affluent Asian residents [1][18] - The bank's strong ROTE and high dividend yield present significant investment value [1][18]

机构：中金公司 研究员：严佳卉/吕松涛/张帅帅 2Q25 业绩小幅高于我们预期 汇丰控股发布2Q25 业绩，经调税前利润92 亿美元，同比增长1%，超出市场预期，主要由于经调非息 收入增速较快且净利息收入韧性较强。报告口径税前利润同比下降29%至63 亿美元，主要由于交行再 融资带来股权稀释及减值损失合计21 亿美元，其中11 亿美元的再融资稀释符合预期，10 亿美元的减值 计提未有预期。 HIBOR 低位维持时间超预期，香港本土地产资产质量下行，美国关税政策压力超预期。 经调净利息收入同比下降2%、季度环比上升1%，结构性对冲工具的受益以及负债成本下行对冲了资产 收益下行的影响，也受益于汇率计算。经调2Q25 净息差1.96%，季度环比下降6bp，主要由于Hibor 下 行。账面贷款和存款增长较快主要由于汇率波动，若按固定汇率基准计算，则存贷款规模环比基本持 平，贷款增长来自于英国市场，存款增长来自于中国香港市场。 资产减值损失同比大幅增加，主要来自香港商业地产和低基数。1）2Q25公司针对新增香港商业地产违 约敞口增加减值准备，也针对商业地产供给过剩导致租金及价格下行而增加减值准备。2）2Q24 低基 数 ...