智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)2025上半年啤酒销量增长优于行业，预期增长趋 势在下半年持续，尽管白酒复苏可能需要时间。该行亦预期下半年利润率继续扩张，并将2025年净利预 测上调7%，反映更好的毛利率趋势及一次性土地处置收益。里昂将润啤目标价从30.4港元上调至33.2港 元，采用啤酒业务9倍12个月远期EV/EBITDA及白酒业务10倍市盈率估值(倍数不变);维持跑赢大市评 级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)上半年业绩胜预期。次高档及以上啤酒销量 以中高单位数增长，带动平均售价提升。在十五五规划中，润啤将继续以喜力为核心，同时强化次高档 市场作为另一增长动力。该行预期白酒业务在下半年的调整阶段不会进一步恶化，但任何潜在减值仍须 视乎业务营运而定。维持对其"买入"评级;目标价由35港元降至33.8港元，以反映白酒业务疲弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais reports that China Resources Beer (00291) is expected to outperform the industry in beer sales growth in the first half of 2025, with a continued upward trend anticipated in the second half, despite the recovery of the liquor market taking time [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - The firm anticipates continued expansion of profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 7%, reflecting better gross margin trends and one-time land disposal gains [1] Group 2: Valuation and Ratings - Credit Lyonnais has increased the target price for China Resources Beer from HKD 30.4 to HKD 33.2, using a 9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA for the beer business and a 10x P/E for the liquor business, with multiples remaining unchanged [1] - The firm maintains an "outperform" rating for the stock [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Beer (00291) has exceeded expectations in its first half performance, driven by sales growth in mid-to-high-end beer segments, which has led to an increase in average selling prices [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on Heineken as its core brand while also strengthening its mid-to-high-end market as another growth driver during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The brokerage expects that the adjustment phase of the liquor business in the second half of the year will not worsen further, but any potential impairment will depend on business operations [1] Group 2 - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 35 to HKD 33.8 to reflect the weakness in the liquor business [1]

Core Insights - China Resources Beer reported growth in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with strong performance in its beer business, but a decline in its liquor business due to overall industry pressure [1][7]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of the year was 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2]. - Shareholder profit reached 5.789 billion yuan, reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 48.9%, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - Beer business revenue was 23.161 billion yuan, with a 2.6% year-on-year growth, and shareholder profit from beer increased by 17.3% [2]. - Beer product sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of beer rose by 0.4% due to ongoing premiumization efforts [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully implemented a premiumization strategy, with significant growth in high-end beer sales [3]. - Sales of premium and above beer products grew by over 10%, with Heineken and Snow beer brands showing strong performance [3]. - The company has developed various specialty beers to meet diverse consumer preferences [2]. Channel Development - Online and instant retail channels have seen rapid growth, with overall GMV increasing by nearly 40% and instant retail by 50% year-on-year [6]. - The company is exploring new business models, including customization and contract manufacturing [6]. Liquor Business Performance - The liquor business revenue fell to 781 million yuan, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major products [7]. - The management anticipates a potential recovery in the liquor market, particularly during peak seasons [7]. - The company plans to introduce products in the 100 yuan price range to align with market demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the beer business will continue to see growth in both premium and mass-market products in the second half of the year, leading to a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [1] - Focus on price recovery in the liquor segment and promoting the reuse of beer channels for light bottle liquor is expected to improve operations [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Three Precision" strategy (cost/expense/investment simplification, refinement, and lean management) and cost advantages, which may lead to sustained profit release [1] Group 3: Investment Forecast - The company is adjusting its profit forecast upwards, expecting earnings per share of 1.85 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 1.93 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for the company's stock has been raised from 37.41 HKD to 38.59 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

报告期内，华润啤酒实现啤酒销量约648.7万千升，同比上升2.2%，高端啤酒产品持续发力，次高及以 上啤酒销量同比中至高单位数增长，普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超过10%。 其中，"喜力"在去年高基数的情况下销量仍突破两成增长，"老雪"销量同比增长超过70%，"红爵"销量 比去年同期实现翻倍增长。 销量高增传导至业绩端。截至6月末，华润啤酒的啤酒业务营业额同比增长2.6%，对应231.61亿元。同 时，高端化战略带动平均销售价格同比上升0.4%，以及原材料采购成本的节约推动啤酒业务毛利率同 比上升2.5个百分点至48.3%。 财报沟通会上，华润啤酒执行董事及总裁赵春武称，啤酒行业的高端化空间依旧巨大，将继续坚持高端 化作为首要战略。 近期，在白酒消费疲软的大环境下，五粮液、珍酒等白酒企业纷纷推出啤酒产品。对此赵春武表示，越 来越多的新"玩家"进入啤酒赛道说明这个行业仍然具有吸引力，竞争中各个企业能发挥所长。 带动业绩向上的依旧是啤酒业务。 禁酒令也是会上被提及的重点问题。 魏强称，当前公司在重塑摘要的价格体系，其中非常关键的一点就是终端零售价要随着市场行情波动， 保证终端出货和经销商的获利，这一点公司还在不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in its beer business, particularly in premium and mass-market products, which is expected to sustain a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [1] - Focus on price recovery in the liquor segment and promoting the reuse of beer channels for light bottle liquor is expected to improve operations [1] - The company aims for high-quality development in the second half of the year, leveraging new consumption trends, ongoing cost benefits, and the implementation of a "three precision" strategy (cost/expense/investment simplification, refinement, and lean management) [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting earnings per share of 1.85 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 1.93 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price has been raised from 37.41 HKD to 38.59 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 0.8% and 23.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 239.4 billion and RMB 57.9 billion respectively [6][15]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the upgrade of the beer business structure, the release of raw material cost benefits, and effective cost control under the "Three Precision" strategy [6]. - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 35.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 38,932 million in 2023, RMB 38,635 million in 2024, and estimated growth to RMB 39,239 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% [5][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 5,807 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [5][9]. - The beer business showed a revenue increase of 2.6% to RMB 231.6 billion, driven by sales volume growth of 2.2% and a slight price increase of 0.4% [6][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment's gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 3.4 percentage points to 35.1% [6][8]. - The white liquor segment faced challenges, with a significant revenue decline of 33.7% to RMB 7.8 billion, attributed to ongoing difficulties in the business banquet scene [6][8]. - The company plans to focus on developing mass-market and light bottle liquor products to reshape its pricing structure and expand coverage in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [6]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, with revenue estimates reduced by 1-5%, while EBITDA and net profit margins are expected to improve by 0.9-1.8 and 0-1.5 percentage points respectively [6][9].

Summary of China Resources Beer (0291.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beer (0291.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$91.7 billion / $11.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$90.3 billion / $11.6 billion - **Current Price**: HK$28.28 - **Target Price**: HK$37.00 - **Upside Potential**: 30.8% [1][3] Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Results**: Better-than-expected core EBIT driven by cost tailwinds and operational efficiency - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: Rmb39,222.3 million - 2026E: Rmb40,255.4 million - 2027E: Rmb40,940.2 million [3][12] - **EBITDA Growth**: - 2025E: Rmb10,309.9 million - 2026E: Rmb10,599.3 million - 2027E: Rmb11,128.0 million [3][12] - **EPS Growth**: - 2025E: Rmb1.70 - 2026E: Rmb1.90 - 2027E: Rmb2.05 [3][12] Strategic Insights - **Market Conditions**: The macro situation remains fluid with deflation risks, but the company is optimistic about its execution in premiumization and market share gains - **Beer Segment**: Expected mild acceleration in 2H25 with normalizing policy impacts; management emphasizes Heineken as a key driver for premiumization [1][14] - **Spirits Segment**: Potential overhang into 2H25; management plans to expand mid-range products and enhance channel profitability [1][14] Management Strategies 1. **Policy Normalization**: Signs of normalizing anti-extravagance policy observed in August, with improved run-rates for both beer and spirits [1][14] 2. **Premiumization Focus**: Continued prioritization of Heineken and enhancement of brand equity to drive high-quality growth [1][14] 3. **New Channels Growth**: Rapid growth in new channels (instant delivery, Sam's Club) expected to drive volume and mix with minimal margin challenges [1][14] 4. **Cost Control**: Focus on margin improvement and efficiency gains, including streamlining factories and reducing headcount [1][14] Financial Projections and Changes - **Recurring EPS Forecast**: Revised up by 5-6% for 2025-2027E due to improved beer sales estimates and better gross profit margin outlook [1][15] - **Sales Growth**: Expected 3.2% sales growth and 11.9% recurring EBIT growth in 2025E [1][15] - **Free Cash Flow**: Projected at Rmb5.7 billion in 1H25, with a net cash position of Rmb7 billion [1][14] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: - 2025E: 15.2x - 2026E: 13.6x - 2027E: 12.6x [3][8] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 2.8% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2027 [3][8] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$37.00, reflecting strong execution in premiumization and operational efficiency despite macroeconomic challenges [1][15]