风雨之后彩虹更美，游戏和中概互联继续坚定看好 20251013 摘要 多家游戏公司上半年收入表现亮眼，如凯英业绩增速快，ST 华通海外市 场表现优异，预计 2026 年利润将持续增长，游戏行业展现稳定性和长 期增长潜力。 中概互联板块及 AR 应用领域前景广阔，腾讯通过游戏业务支撑新业务， AI 应用成为新增长点。阅文集团利用 Sora two 生成视频或动漫，提升 IP 资产价值。美图在欧洲市场 AR 技术应用广泛。 中国游戏公司在全球范围内具备显著优势，吉比特、巨人网络等公司业 绩增速远超 Take-Two 和 Roblox 等国际同行，中国游戏公司应获得更 高溢价。 腾讯在 AI 应用方面潜力巨大，包括 Agent、腾讯会议 AR 功能，以及阅 文集团通过 Sora two 生成内容。这些创新提升用户体验，增加商业价 值，可能带来 IP 资产重估收益。 对汇量、美图、阅文等公司未来四季度持乐观态度，这些公司在 AR 应 用方面有显著进展，心动网络表现稳定，预计传媒板块数据良好，且不 受贸易战影响。 Q&A 如何看待当前游戏板块的表现及未来发展前景？ 当前游戏板块整体表现强劲，尽管经历了一些调整，但仍处于 ...

Core Viewpoint - On October 13, Kingsoft Software made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 19.32 billion HKD and a net buy of 2.86 billion HKD, closing up 13.82% [2][3]. Group 1: Trading Activity - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect on October 13 was 1080.35 billion HKD, accounting for 47.59% of the day's total trading amount [2]. - Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume at 322.98 billion HKD, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W with trading volumes of 177.21 billion HKD and 153.23 billion HKD, respectively [2]. - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month were Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings, each appearing 15 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kingsoft Software's trading volume was 19.32 billion HKD, with a net buy of 2.86 billion HKD, marking its first appearance on the active list in a month [2][3]. - The stock closed at 36.56 HKD, reflecting a daily increase of 13.82% [3]. - Other notable stocks included Tencent Holdings with a trading volume of 136.00 billion HKD and a net sell of 24.45 billion HKD, and SMIC with a trading volume of 177.21 billion HKD and a net sell of 5.24 billion HKD [2].

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% on October 13, closing at 25,889.48 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 19.804 billion [1] - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on October 13 was HKD 227.017 billion, with a net buy of HKD 19.804 billion [1] - Active stocks in the Shanghai Stock Connect included Alibaba-W, which had the highest trading volume at HKD 22.610 billion, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group with HKD 12.670 billion and HKD 9.133 billion respectively [1] - The top net buy stock was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, with a net inflow of HKD 5.208 billion, despite its closing price dropping by 1.56% [1] - Tencent Holdings had the highest net sell amount at HKD 3.308 billion, with a closing price decrease of 1.92% [1] Trading Activity Summary - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W led with a trading volume of HKD 9.688 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group and SMIC at HKD 6.189 billion and HKD 5.050 billion respectively [2] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong recorded a net buy of HKD 2.075 billion, while the highest net sell was for Innovent Biologics at HKD 0.515 billion, with a closing price drop of 4.20% [2] - The trading data for the top active stocks included significant fluctuations in net buy and sell amounts, indicating varied investor sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% on October 13, with a total southbound trading volume of HKD 227.017 billion, including HKD 123.411 billion in buying and HKD 103.606 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 19.804 billion [1] - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading volume of HKD 78.738 billion, with net buying of HKD 12.206 billion, while the trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total volume of HKD 148.279 billion and net buying of HKD 7.598 billion [1] - Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume among southbound stocks, totaling HKD 32.298 billion, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W with HKD 17.721 billion and HKD 15.323 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - Among the active stocks, the top net buying stock was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong with a net buying amount of HKD 7.282 billion, despite a closing price drop of 1.56% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W and ZTE Corporation had the longest consecutive net buying days, with 6 and 3 days respectively, and the highest net buying amounts of HKD 4.709 billion and HKD 1.673 billion [2] - The stocks with the highest net selling amounts included Tencent Holdings with HKD 2.445 billion, Alibaba-W with HKD 1.624 billion, and SMIC with HKD 0.524 billion [2]

Core Insights - On October 13, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 22.61 billion, 12.67 billion, and 9.13 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 9.69 billion, 6.19 billion, and 5.05 billion respectively [1] Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 22.61 billion with a net buy of -2.18 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) recorded a trading amount of 12.67 billion with a net buy of -1.81 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 9.13 billion with a net buy of +0.13 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 9.13 billion with a net buy of -3.31 billion [1] - The Yingfu Fund (02800) saw a trading amount of 5.42 billion with a net buy of +5.21 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 5.17 billion with a net buy of +0.79 billion [1] - Other notable companies included Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), ZTE Corporation (00763), Meituan-W (03690), and Kingsoft Corporation (03888) with varying trading amounts and net buys [1] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 9.69 billion with a net buy of +0.55 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 6.19 billion with a net buy of +0.76 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 5.05 billion with a net buy of +1.29 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 4.47 billion with a net buy of +0.86 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a trading amount of 3.04 billion with a net buy of +0.56 billion [1] - Other companies such as Yingfu Fund (02800), Meituan-W (03690), ZTE Corporation (00763), WuXi Biologics (02269), and Innovent Biologics (01801) also participated with varying trading amounts and net buys [1]

Core Insights - The report by TrendForce indicates a significant increase in capital expenditure (CapEx) among major cloud service providers (CSPs) driven by the rapid expansion of AI server demand, with a projected total CapEx exceeding $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-over-year increase compared to 2023 and 2024 combined [1] - By 2026, the total CapEx for these CSPs is expected to reach over $520 billion, marking a 24% year-over-year growth, as the spending structure shifts towards assets like servers and GPUs to strengthen long-term competitiveness [1] Group 1: CSPs and AI Solutions - The GB200/GB300 Rack is identified as a key AI solution for CSPs, with demand expected to exceed initial forecasts, particularly from North America's top four CSPs and Oracle, as well as companies like Tesla/xAI and Coreweave [2] - CSPs are anticipated to increase their self-developed chip shipments annually, with North American CSPs focusing on AI ASICs to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [2] Group 2: Specific CSP Developments - AWS is set to deploy Trainium v2, with a liquid-cooled version expected by the end of 2025, and Trainium v3 projected to begin mass production in Q1 2026, with a forecasted shipment increase of over 100% in 2025 [3] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, expecting to mass-produce MTIA v2 by Q4 2025, with significant growth anticipated in shipments [3] - Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, although its self-developed chip shipments are expected to lag behind competitors in the short term [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Tencent's capital expenditure saw a year-over-year increase of 119% in Q2, reaching 19.107 billion RMB, with total investments exceeding 83.1 billion RMB over the last three quarters [3] - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached a record high of 38.6 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a commitment to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [4]

Core Insights - The competition among major tech companies in the AI model space is shifting towards open-source strategies, with companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu releasing their models simultaneously, indicating a consensus on the necessity of open-source approaches [1][2][10] - Open-source is no longer an optional strategy but a critical requirement for companies to gain a competitive edge in the evolving market [2][10] - The focus is now on the breadth and depth of ecosystems rather than just the technical superiority of individual models, as companies aim to create comprehensive platforms for developers [11][16] Group 1: Open-Source Strategy - Major companies are increasingly adopting open-source models to leverage collective developer intelligence and enhance model capabilities [1][2][5] - Tencent's recent releases, including the "Hunyuan Image 3.0" model, highlight its strategy to engage external developers and accelerate advancements in complex tasks like 3D modeling [2][3] - Alibaba has released multiple models, including the flagship Qwen3-Max, and has opened over 300 models with significant download numbers, aiming to become the preferred choice for developers [3][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The open-source movement is seen as a response to diverse industry needs, with companies like Baidu optimizing their models for specific applications such as OCR and education [5][10] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies needing to demonstrate not just technical capabilities but also the ability to integrate their models into broader industry applications [11][14] - The shift towards open-source is expected to lower barriers for enterprises, allowing them to adopt advanced AI technologies at a reduced cost [5][10] Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Companies are focusing on building extensive ecosystems around their open-source models, which will drive dependency on their cloud infrastructure and services [7][10] - The competition is not just about releasing models but also about how effectively companies can convert these open-source capabilities into industry applications and developer loyalty [10][16] - Baidu's strategy involves integrating its models with proprietary hardware, enhancing the overall ecosystem and making it more appealing for enterprise clients [13][16]

每经AI快讯，10月13日，南向资金净买入约198.04亿港元，为8月16日以来单日新高。盈富基金、恒生 中国企业分别获净买入约73.82亿港元、21.35亿港元；腾讯控股遭净卖出24.45亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 198.04 billion HKD from northbound trading on October 13, with 75.98 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 122.06 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] - The most sold stocks were Tencent (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and SMIC (00981) [1] - Alibaba-W had a buy amount of 102.16 billion HKD and a sell amount of 123.94 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 21.78 billion HKD [2] - SMIC had a buy amount of 54.30 billion HKD and a sell amount of 72.40 billion HKD, leading to a net outflow of 18.10 billion HKD [2] - Tencent had a buy amount of 29.11 billion HKD and a sell amount of 62.19 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 33.08 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market is experiencing a decline in investor risk appetite due to escalating US-China trade tensions, which has led to a valuation correction in Hong Kong stocks [4] - Despite the current market challenges, there are expectations for stabilization in investor sentiment due to domestic growth-supporting policies and long-term measures to stabilize the stock market [4] - The semiconductor sector is showing divergence, with Hua Hong Semiconductor receiving a net inflow of 13.47 billion HKD, while SMIC faced a net outflow of 5.23 billion HKD [5] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 8.88 billion HKD despite a nearly 9% drop in its stock price due to safety concerns following a fire incident involving one of its vehicles [5] - Kingsoft (03888) received a net inflow of 2.86 billion HKD amid discussions on export controls related to rare earth materials [5] - Northbound trading sold off tech stocks, with Alibaba-W and Tencent facing significant net outflows of 24.45 billion HKD and 16.23 billion HKD, respectively [6]

该行预期市场在腾讯第三季业绩中，关注AI应用与资本支出展望、基础与多模态AI模型能力的升级。 该行预测腾讯第三季收入及每股盈利同比升13%及18%，受高毛利收入来源及营运杠杆驱动。高盛上调 对腾讯今年至2027年资本支出预测至3,500亿元人民币，并上调云端收入增长预测。 高盛发布研报称，腾讯控股(00700)AI赋能其全体业务线，得益于其独特微信生态及全球游戏资产。该 行维持对腾讯"买入"评级，基本情境的目标价由701港元上调至770港元，此按综合方式作估值。而该行 对腾讯"牛市"情境的目标价846港元，对其"熊市"情境的目标价541港元。 腾讯今年以来股价累升56%，对比恒生科技指数44%，尽管投资者对美国关税及地缘政治风险的担忧再 度升温，高盛仍对腾讯持正面看法。虽然该股年内重新定价至2026年预期非国际财务报告准则市盈率19 倍，其估值仍相对全球同业折让，且拥相对低度变现化资产，具多项人工智能(AI)驱动变现化杠杆，以 及稳定股东回馈政策。 ...