Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities projects Longfor Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 6.22 billion, 7.64 billion, and 8.94 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.09, and 1.28 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating due to the stable development of the company's asset operation and property management segments [1] Group 1 - As of June 2025, the company operates 89 shopping malls (including 75 heavy-asset and 14 light-asset), with a total opened mall area of 12.56 million square meters (including parking spaces) and an overall occupancy rate of 96.8%, with total sales increasing by 17% [1] - The long-term rental apartments have opened 127,000 units, achieving an overall occupancy rate of 95.6% [1] - The property management segment includes approximately 2,200 projects, managing an area of about 400 million square meters [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the property investment segment reported revenue of 7.01 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 2.5%), with a gross margin of approximately 77.7% (compared to 74.6% in the same period of 2024) [1] - The property service segment generated revenue of 6.26 billion yuan, with a gross margin of approximately 30%, remaining stable compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a rally on September 12, with notable increases in share prices [1] - China Overseas Land & Investment (远洋集团) surged over 10%, Country Garden (碧桂园) rose more than 6%, and Sunac China (融创中国) increased by over 4% [1] - Other companies such as New World Development (新城发展), Vanke (万科企业), and Longfor Group (龙湖集团) also saw their stock prices rise [1]

Sales Performance Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Changsha achieved a total sales revenue of 26.456 billion yuan, with a total sales area of 1.8016 million square meters [2][3] - The sales threshold for the top 10 companies was 1.12 billion yuan and 77,600 square meters, while for the top 20 it was 465 million yuan and 37,400 square meters [2] Top Companies by Sales Revenue - China Resources Land ranked first in sales revenue with 3.071 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 2.845 billion yuan, and China State Construction with 2.765 billion yuan [3][4] - In terms of sales area, China State Construction led with 203,400 square meters, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 199,400 square meters, and China Resources Land with 172,200 square meters [3] Project Sales Rankings - The top 10 projects in Changsha for sales revenue totaled 10.716 billion yuan, with the threshold for the top 10 set at 752 million yuan [6] - The project "Changsha Ruifu" topped the sales revenue chart with 1.943 billion yuan, followed by "Changsha Jianfa Guanyun" at 1.200 billion yuan, and "Yunda Conference Bay" at 1.077 billion yuan [6] - For sales area, "Changsha Ruifu" also led with 94,800 square meters, followed by "Zhongjian Taoli Jiu Zhang" with 79,500 square meters, and "Changsha Runfu" with 75,900 square meters [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. The real estate industry faces challenges from weakened household balance sheets and policy constraints requiring high-quality development without overall leverage [4][5][6]. - The "Good House" policy is seen as a potential breakthrough strategy that could lead to a fivefold positive resonance in core cities, gradually achieving a recovery driven by structural improvements [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Challenges in Real Estate Fundamentals and Policy Constraints - Broad housing demand is estimated to have bottomed out, with total transactions stabilizing around 1.4 billion square meters [15][22]. - New home sales have decreased from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 0.81 billion square meters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 48%, while second-hand home sales have increased by 64% during the same period [15][22]. - The key issue in the real estate sector is not demand but purchasing power, with a trend of consumption downgrade evident in the market [22][31]. 2. Breakthrough Strategy: "Good House" Policy Leading to Fivefold Positive Resonance - The "Good House" policy aims to create new products and markets, enhancing the price system under conditions of supply scarcity and relatively abundant demand [4][6]. - The report identifies five positive resonances: policy strength of "Good House," urban renewal, housing consumption upgrade, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength [4][6]. - Potential benefits include expected further reductions in mortgage rates and loosening of purchase restrictions, which could drive improvements in core cities [4][6]. 3. Core Cities: Hong Kong Has Reversed, Shanghai and Other Core Cities Nearing Bottom - Hong Kong's real estate market has experienced a turnaround due to four positive factors, including talent policies and stock market gains [4][6]. - Other core cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also showing signs of improvement, with Shanghai expected to be the next city to see a bottoming out [4][6]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion: "Good House" as a Breakthrough Strategy - The report emphasizes that the "Good House" policy could lead to a structural recovery in the real estate market, benefiting quality real estate companies positioned in core cities [4][5][6]. - Recommended companies include those with strong product capabilities and undervalued recovery potential, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with many companies facing increased profit pressure, while a few, like Longfor and China Resources, are successfully navigating this shift by focusing on operational business models and achieving positive profitability [2][9]. Industry Trends - The market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing assets, as indicated by recent government meetings [2]. - Companies are exploring new operational models to adapt to this systemic change, emphasizing the need for a shift from incremental to stock market strategies [2][8]. Company Strategies - Real estate firms are concentrating on three main transformation paths: enhancing stable income through property holdings, developing light asset businesses, and expanding into new business areas beyond traditional real estate development [2]. - Longfor's operational business revenue reached a historical high of 13.27 billion yuan, while China Resources achieved a core net profit of 6.02 billion yuan, contributing over 60% of its profits [5][6]. Operational Models - Longfor's operational business includes commercial investment, asset management, property management, and smart construction, with a focus on maintaining high occupancy rates and rental income growth [5]. - China Resources is adopting a large asset management model as a core strategy during the industry's transition, achieving regular income of 20.56 billion yuan [6]. Market Adaptation - The industry is encouraged to shift from investment-driven growth to service-driven revenue, focusing on operational and service enhancements [8]. - Companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are actively pursuing new growth lines in commercial and property management [8]. Financial Stability - Moody's report highlights that increasing regular income enhances developers' profitability stability and financial resilience, with Longfor and China Resources showing higher operational income and profitability compared to peers [9].

此外，2025年8月，龙湖集团新增一块土地储备，总建筑面积2.47万平方米，权益建筑面积1.06万平方 米，权益地价1.58亿元。 新京报贝壳财经讯9月9日晚，龙湖集团控股有限公司(简称"龙湖集团")披露，2025年8月，龙湖集团实 现合同销售金额47.3亿元，其中，归属公司股东权益的合同销售金额33.9亿元，归属公司股东权益的合 同销售面积31万平方米。 公告显示，2025年1-8月，龙湖集团累计实现总合同销售金额457.4亿元，合同销售面积349.6万平方米。 ...

Core Insights - Longfor Group reported total contract sales of 45.74 billion yuan and a sales area of 3.496 million square meters from January to August 2025, with operational revenue of 18.86 billion yuan, including approximately 10.05 billion yuan from operational business and about 8.81 billion yuan from service business [1] Group 1 - In August, the real estate market continued to experience a downturn, with the top 100 real estate companies seeing a 13.1% year-on-year decline in sales, marking a historical low [1] - Longfor Group's real estate development sales in August reached 4.73 billion yuan, maintaining a stable ranking at 12th in the industry [1] - Beijing and Shanghai have lifted some restrictions in non-core areas, which is expected to boost market expectations and gradually increase transaction volumes in the upcoming months [1] Group 2 - Longfor Group plans to accelerate its project launches in September, aligning with the "good housing" policy, focusing on high-volume cities like Chengdu, Chongqing, and Suzhou [2] - The company aims to open five new commercial projects in September, including four new shopping malls in Wuhan and Chongqing, which will enhance its operational income [2] - Longfor Group's management emphasized that operational income will be a key support for the company to navigate through economic cycles and optimize its debt structure [2]

Core Insights - Longfor Group reported its operational data and new land reserves for the period ending August 2025, indicating a total contract sales amount of RMB 45.74 billion and a contract sales area of 3.496 million square meters from January to August 2025 [1] - In August 2025 alone, Longfor Group achieved total contract sales of RMB 4.73 billion with a sales area of 414,000 square meters [1] - The company acquired a new land reserve in Chengdu in August 2025, with a total construction area of 24,700 square meters and an equity construction area of 10,600 square meters, at an equity land price of RMB 158 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported its unaudited operating brief for August, indicating a total contract sales amount of 3.39 billion yuan and a contract sales area of 310,000 square meters in August [1] Group Summary - In August, Longfor Group and its subsidiaries achieved total contract sales of 3.39 billion yuan [1] - The total contract sales area for the same period was 310,000 square meters [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group achieved a total contract sales amount of RMB 4.73 billion in August, with a contract sales area of 414,000 square meters. The cumulative total contract sales amount for the first eight months reached RMB 45.74 billion, covering an area of 3.496 million square meters [1] Summary by Category - **Monthly Performance** - In August, Longfor Group's total contract sales amounted to RMB 4.73 billion [1] - The contract sales area for August was 414,000 square meters [1] - **Year-to-Date Performance** - For the first eight months of the year, the cumulative total contract sales reached RMB 45.74 billion [1] - The total contract sales area for the first eight months was 3.496 million square meters [1]