Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][4][10] Core Insights - The decline in H1 2025 performance is primarily attributed to the decrease in gross margin from development business, while the revenue from operational and service segments continues to grow [2][9] - The company is expected to alleviate debt pressure by the end of 2025, with a marginal recovery in free cash flow, which may enhance investment cycles and boost valuations [1][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, total revenue was 588 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pre-tax profit and net profit decreased by 30% and 45% respectively [2][3] - The gross margin for the overall business fell by 8.0 percentage points to 12.6%, with the development business gross margin dropping by 6.2 percentage points to 0.2% [2][3] - The company reported a core net profit of 14 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 71% year-on-year [2] Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with total interest-bearing debt at 169.8 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [9] - By the end of 2025, the company is expected to have significantly eased its funding pressure, with a net debt ratio of 51% [9][10] Earnings Forecast - Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.71, 0.89, and 1.14 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 12.1, and 9.5 [1][10]

Group 1 - The Chengdu land market saw the transaction of two residential land plots on September 16, with a total area of 77,814.24 square meters and total revenue of 2.612 billion yuan [1][2] - Longfor Group acquired the Wannianchang plot of 19.2 acres at a floor price of 15,800 yuan per square meter, totaling 506 million yuan with a premium rate of 5.33% [1] - The second plot, located on Jianshe Road, was acquired by a consortium of Chenghua Old Renovation and Sichuan Huaxi at a floor price of 10,800 yuan per square meter, totaling 2.106 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The Wannianchang plot has a total land area of 12,813.04 square meters and a planned building area of 32,032 square meters, with a plot ratio of 2.5 [1] - The surrounding land projects have seen higher floor prices, with a recent transaction by China Travel Investment at 19,100 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 29.05% [1] - Another plot acquired by China Resources Land had a floor price of 20,400 yuan per square meter with a premium rate of 51.11% [1]

Group 1 - New housing prices in first-tier cities have seen a reduction in the rate of decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with overall new housing prices in 70 cities showing a year-on-year decline narrowing to 3.0% [1][10][24] - The number of cities with rising new housing prices month-on-month increased to 9 in August, compared to 6 in July, while the number of cities with year-on-year price increases remained at 5 [1][14][24] - In August, Shanghai led the new housing price increases with a month-on-month rise of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, making it the only first-tier city to achieve growth in both metrics [3][20][23] Group 2 - Second-hand housing prices in 70 cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [2][15][19] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices decreased by 5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, while first-tier cities showed mixed results in their year-on-year performance [2][15][19] - In August, only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, while all cities experienced year-on-year declines [2][19][20] Group 3 - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with expectations for continued small fluctuations in housing prices amid supportive fiscal and monetary policies [4][24] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, as well as firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery [4][24]

Core Points - The "China Top 500 Enterprises" list for 2024 was released by the China Enterprise Confederation and the China Enterprise Association, ranking companies based on their operating revenue [1] - Ten companies from Chongqing made the list, maintaining the same number as last year [1] Group 1: Chongqing Companies - The ten Chongqing companies listed are: - Seres Group Co., Ltd. (Ranked 190) - Longfor Group Holdings Limited (Ranked 212) - Chongqing Chemical Industry Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. (Ranked 273) - Chongqing Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. (Ranked 306) - Jinlong Precision Copper Tube Group Co., Ltd. (Ranked 391) - Chongqing Bosai Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. (Ranked 407) - Chongqing New Oupeng Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd. (Ranked 446) - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (Ranked 462) - Chongqing Mechanical and Electrical Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. (Ranked 463) - Zongshen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (Ranked 466) [1] Group 2: Top 10 Companies in China - The top 10 companies in the "China Top 500 Enterprises" list based on operating revenue are: 1. State Grid Corporation of China: 394,592,833 million yuan 2. China National Petroleum Corporation: 296,904,813 million yuan 3. China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation: 293,195,627 million yuan 4. China State Construction Engineering Corporation: 218,714,784 million yuan 5. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: 162,912,600 million yuan 6. Agricultural Bank of China: 141,994,100 million yuan 7. China Construction Bank: 141,483,800 million yuan 8. Bank of China: 126,469,200 million yuan 9. China Railway Engineering Corporation: 116,084,838 million yuan 10. JD.com, Inc.: 115,881,900 million yuan [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6%. The decline in second-hand home prices has expanded compared to July [6][9] - The number of cities with declining new home prices was 57, with an average decline of 0.41%, while 69 cities saw a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.59% [6][12] - First-tier cities experienced a narrowing decline in new home prices, down 0.1%, while second-hand home prices remained stable, with a decline of 1.0% [6][14] - The report emphasizes the need for the real estate market to stabilize and recover from the current downward pressure on prices, with a focus on policy adjustments in major cities to boost market sentiment [6][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% in August [6][14] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.3% and second-hand prices drop by 0.6% [6][14] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decline in new home prices, while second-hand prices remained stable [6][14] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current price declines are the largest since November 2024, indicating significant downward pressure on the market [6][18] - Policy adjustments in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen aim to improve market conditions, although the sustainability of these effects remains uncertain [6][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and China Vanke [6] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [36]. Core Insights - The real estate sector saw a 6.0% increase in the week of September 8-12, 2025, ranking second among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10]. - New housing transactions in 20 cities increased by 5% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 19% [21][26]. - The report highlights effective policy measures, including increased housing purchase subsidies and optimized housing provident fund policies, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [13][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,233.62 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1,183.33 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 1% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 8% year-on-year [21][22]. - The average daily transaction area for new homes was 23.7 million square meters, with total transactions reaching 166 million square meters for the week [20][21]. Policy News - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Henan, have implemented measures to support housing consumption, including subsidies for first and second home purchases and increased loan limits for housing provident funds [13][16]. Company Dynamics - Notable companies reported varying sales figures, with CIFI Holdings achieving approximately 9.6 billion yuan in contract sales for August 2025, while China Jinmao reported 9.08 billion yuan [17][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks continue to decline, with major companies experiencing significant drops, while some show slight gains. The overall market remains under pressure, and recovery will take time, although there may be a temporary increase in activity due to seasonal factors and favorable policies [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major Hong Kong real estate stocks such as China Overseas Land & Investment, Sunac China, and others have seen declines exceeding 6%, while some companies like Ronshine China have increased by nearly 5% [1]. - The latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that in August, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with second-tier cities down 0.3% and third-tier cities down 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - In August, second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 0.6% and third-tier cities a decrease of 0.5% [1]. - The decline in prices indicates ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market, necessitating a process for recovery [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term prospects may improve with the release of favorable policies and the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaching [1]. - The real estate industry is expected to transition from a model characterized by "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover" to a focus on high-quality development, emphasizing product quality, operational service, and sustainable development [1].

Core Insights - Two residential land parcels in Chengdu's Chenghua District were sold on September 16, with a total transaction amount of 2.612 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Land Transactions - The first parcel, located in Wanniancun, covers an area of 19.2 acres and was acquired by Longfor at a floor price of 15,800 yuan per square meter, totaling 506 million yuan with a premium rate of 5.33% [1] - The second parcel, located on Jianshe Road, spans 97.5 acres and was won by a consortium of Chenghua Old Renovation and Sichuan Huaxi at a floor price of 10,800 yuan per square meter, amounting to 2.106 billion yuan with a premium rate of 0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government reiterates the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need to release demand for improvement through various measures, with specific policies being implemented in cities like Suzhou [1] Group 1: Real Estate Performance in Jiangsu - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Jiangsu had a sales threshold of 3.439 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 14,220 square meters [2][5] - The top three companies by sales revenue were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 8.825 billion yuan 2. Huafa Group with 8.214 billion yuan 3. Greentown China with 7.739 billion yuan [2][3] - In terms of sales area, the top three were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 340,800 square meters 2. Poly Developments with 321,700 square meters 3. New Town Holdings with 290,700 square meters [2][3] Group 2: Local Real Estate Companies - Jiangsu's local real estate companies showed strong performance, with the top 20 local firms having a sales threshold of 1.770 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 7,440 square meters [5] - Jinji Real Estate led in sales revenue with 5.266 billion yuan, while New Town Holdings topped in sales area with 290,700 square meters [5][6] Group 3: Land Market Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu launched 442 residential land plots, with a total planned construction area of 26.071 million square meters, and successfully sold 425 plots with a total area of 26.257 million square meters [7] - The average floor price across the province was 6,484 yuan per square meter, with August seeing an increase to 6,517 yuan per square meter [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - With the goal of stabilizing the market, new supportive policies are expected to be introduced, and the market is anticipated to become more active during the traditional peak sales season of September and October [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]