Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group has maintained growth and profitability amidst a deep adjustment in the real estate industry, achieving a revenue of 58.75 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Among 135 real estate companies that disclosed semi-annual performance data, only 53 reported revenue growth, with Longfor being one of the three companies with revenue exceeding 50 billion yuan that experienced growth [1] - The operating business, including commercial investment and asset management, achieved a gross profit margin of 77.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating resilience [1][4] - Longfor's real estate development business generated revenue of 45.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with a delivery satisfaction rate of 90% for nearly 40,000 quality housing units [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Position - Longfor achieved a contract sales amount of 35.01 billion yuan, with a sales area of 2.614 million square meters, ranking in the first tier of the CRIC list [2] - The company has shifted focus from sales scale to quality of development, with 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities and a collection rate exceeding 100% [2] - Longfor's land reserve totals 28.4 million square meters, with an average cost of 4,207 yuan per square meter, ensuring future development [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The operating business and service business maintained steady growth, with operating business revenue reaching 13.27 billion yuan, accounting for 22.6% of total revenue [3] - Longfor operates 89 commercial properties, with a high occupancy rate of 97% and a sales growth of approximately 17% [3] - The smart construction business achieved sales of 8.4 billion yuan, with a delivery area of 1.22 million square meters [4] Group 4: Debt Management - Longfor has actively reduced its debt, with interest-bearing debt decreasing by 6.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and the average financing cost dropping to a historical low of 3.58% [6] - As of June 30, the net debt ratio was 51.2%, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.14 times, maintaining a "green file" status [6] - The company plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by over 30 billion yuan by 2025, stabilizing total interest-bearing debt around 100 billion yuan [6][7] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the resilience of the Chinese real estate market, particularly in core locations of first- and second-tier cities [3] - Longfor's strategy of "low leverage + strong operations" has demonstrated strong cyclical resilience, positioning the company well for future growth [7]

约1KM翡翠湖，龙湖·泊萃约94-155㎡全新旗舰作品，奢定样板间即将开放！ 当"高门槛"成为大政务圈改善的普遍焦虑时，龙湖・泊萃以颠覆性价格打破僵局——总价125万起，即 可抢驻大政务圈惟一新规2.0低密住区。 转自：推广 总价125万起，大政务圈新规2.0惟一选！ 意境创想图 【超级底盘】大政务圈【产-城-湖-宅】范本已成，极萃鼎配资源 大政务"产-城-湖-宅"范本，超级价值底盘 这不仅是"豪宅平权"的兑现，更是"稀贵恒产"的珍藏。以低总价共享千万级豪宅鼎配资源，约1KM直达 国家4A级景区翡翠湖，低门槛圆湖居度假梦。 龙湖·泊萃以区域首个新规2.0洋房、至高115%实用率的"颠覆革新"的产品力，成为合肥改善市场的"必 选项"。 【品牌赋能】品牌实力背书，物业护航生活 豪宅大师深耕，定调大政务改善标准。32载龙湖品质，世界500强，深耕合肥8载26盘，布局大政务圈3 年4盘，持续引领。2025年，龙湖龙智造凭借多年的高端产品营造经验，为央企中林生态控股有限公司 提供代建代销服务，双强联袂，于大政务圈打造区域首座新规2.0"新萃系"旗舰龙湖・泊萃，重新定义 改善标准。 合肥龙湖亚伦央璟颂实拍图 龙湖智创生活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is still undergoing deep adjustments, with many industry players feeling confused about the ongoing decline despite government efforts to stabilize the market [1] Market Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing "three changes and three constants": policy direction has shifted from deleveraging to risk prevention, demand has diversified, and competition has moved from scale expansion to quality comparison, while urbanization and the pursuit of a better life remain unchanged [4][5] - The market has shown signs of weakness again in April and May, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the industry [3] Investment Strategies - Major real estate companies are adopting cautious land acquisition strategies, focusing on first and second-tier cities to ensure certainty in investments [8] - Green City has actively acquired land with a total value exceeding 90 billion, with 88% in first and second-tier cities, but plans to slow down in the second half of the year [9] - Yuexiu emphasizes a strategy of selecting small plots for quick turnover and low risk, with 92% of investments concentrated in core areas [10] - Longhu has prioritized debt safety and project delivery over new investments, acquiring only four plots in key cities this year [10] Product Development - The emphasis on product quality has become crucial for navigating market cycles, with companies recognizing that strong product capabilities are essential [11] - The concept of "product equality" is emerging, where high-quality features previously exclusive to luxury projects are now becoming standard across various market segments [11][12] Profitability Trends - Many real estate companies are facing profit declines, with over 60% of listed firms expecting losses, primarily due to reduced sales and asset impairment losses [16][17] - Some companies, like China Overseas and China Resources Land, are still reporting strong profits due to strategic investments in core urban areas and effective cost management [18][19] - China Overseas reported a net profit of 9.53 billion, maintaining a high profit margin despite a slight year-on-year decline [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks are generally declining, with major companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices amid ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [1] Industry Summary - The real estate market in August continued its adjustment trend, with the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreasing month-on-month. The decline in sales narrowed due to a low base from the previous year, but the cumulative year-on-year decline further expanded [1] - From January to August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 20,708.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The equity sales amount was 16,197 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - In August, the top 100 real estate companies recorded a sales amount of 2,069.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [1] Company Summary - There is a clear differentiation among real estate companies, with leading firms showing strong performance. In August, 48% of the top 40 companies achieved positive month-on-month growth, and eight out of the top ten companies reported positive growth [1] - Notable companies with significant month-on-month growth include China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and Huafa Group [1] - In terms of monthly sales amount for August, Greentown China led with 19.5 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. However, the core and attributable net profits were 1.4 billion and 3.2 billion RMB, showing a decline of 71% and 45% respectively, which aligns with the earnings forecast. The profit drop is attributed to the ongoing adjustment phase in the development business, but operational business has become a crucial support for core profits, demonstrating strong resilience [1][2] - The company’s development business is still in a bottoming phase, focusing on digesting existing assets. The revenue from project handovers increased by 35% year-on-year to 45.5 billion RMB, but the gross margin decreased by 7.2 percentage points to 0.2%, indicating low profitability levels. The sales amount dropped by 30% to 24.5 billion RMB, and the land acquisition amount fell by 71% to 1.5 billion RMB, reflecting a decline in both sales and land acquisition activities [3][4] - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with interest-bearing liabilities decreasing by 9% to 169.8 billion RMB. The short-term debt ratio also decreased, and the cash-to-short-debt ratio improved to 1.74 times. The average financing cost dropped by 42 basis points to 3.58%, indicating an optimization in financing structure [4] Summary by Sections Operational Performance - The operational business maintained stable growth with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of total revenue by the end of 2024. The commercial segment saw a same-store sales growth of 3%, and rental income increased by 5% to 5.5 billion RMB. The company plans to open 10 new shopping malls in the second half of 2025, which is expected to further drive growth [2] Development Business - The development business is primarily focused on liquidating existing assets, with a significant amount of unsold land reserves valued over 200 billion RMB. The company anticipates a saleable value of 120 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [3] Financial Outlook - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.93, and 1.06 RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 14%, 5%, and 2%. The target price is set at 13.86 HKD, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.53 times [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group has successfully navigated the challenges of the real estate industry by implementing proactive debt optimization strategies, reducing interest-bearing liabilities by over 40 billion yuan in three years, and establishing a benchmark for high-quality transformation in the sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Longfor Group achieved a revenue of 58.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4%, with a profit attributable to shareholders of 3.22 billion yuan [1]. - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 6.53 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, bringing the net debt ratio down to 51.2%, maintaining a green status on the three red lines indicators [1][2]. Debt Management Strategy - Longfor Group initiated a debt reduction strategy in mid-2022, anticipating market changes and focusing on operational cash flow to reduce liabilities [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt from 212.4 billion yuan to 169.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative reduction of over 40 billion yuan in three years [3][2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of the reporting period, Longfor Group had cash on hand amounting to 44.67 billion yuan, with a net inflow of over 2 billion yuan in operational cash flow [3]. - The company emphasizes a debt repayment strategy based on positive operational cash flow, moving away from reliance on increased debt and financing for growth [4][3]. Financing Cost and Structure - Longfor Group's average financing cost has decreased to 3.58%, a reduction of 42 basis points from the previous year, marking a historical low [6]. - The average loan term has been extended to 10.95 years, effectively reducing short-term repayment pressure [6]. Debt Repayment Capability - In 2025, Longfor Group has already repaid approximately 14.5 billion yuan in bond principal and interest, demonstrating strong financial strength and commitment to timely repayment [8]. - The company has a clear repayment schedule, having prepaid various bonds and loans throughout the year, maintaining a policy of no extensions or defaults [8]. Future Debt Management Plans - Longfor Group plans to reduce its interest-bearing debt to approximately 145 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a focus on maintaining a stable debt scale [9]. - The company aims to further optimize its financing structure by increasing long-term debt and gradually reducing short-term debt, while also minimizing foreign currency debt [9]. Industry Context - Longfor Group's approach serves as a sustainable debt management model amidst widespread financial pressures in the real estate sector, showcasing that prudent financial management and cautious operational strategies can lead to stable growth even in downturns [10].

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with leading companies actively seeking investment opportunities in core cities [1][2][5] - Top 10 real estate companies accounted for 70% of the new value added in the first eight months, indicating a concentration of resources among leading firms [1][5] - Companies are focusing on high liquidity and high certainty land parcels to drive profitability recovery [1][6] Investment Trends - In the first eight months of 2023, the top 100 real estate companies invested a total of 605.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28% [2][5] - Leading state-owned enterprises dominate land acquisition, with eight out of the top ten land acquirers being state-owned [5] - Green Town China, Poly Development, and China Overseas Property led in new value added, with 114.4 billion yuan, 99.6 billion yuan, and 92.3 billion yuan respectively [5][6] Strategic Focus - Companies are shifting their investment strategies to focus on first and second-tier cities, moving away from lower-tier markets [6][9] - The strategy includes a focus on high-quality land parcels to improve financial performance and reduce historical burdens from previous high-cost land acquisitions [6][9] - Companies like China Jinmao and China Overseas Property emphasize maintaining investment intensity while balancing risk [9][10] Market Outlook - Despite a seasonal decline in investment in August, the overall sentiment remains positive, with companies planning to maintain investment levels in core cities [8][9] - The market is expected to see further differentiation between cities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to stabilize first [9][10] - Companies are adopting a "宁缺毋滥" (prefer quality over quantity) approach, focusing on core cities and high-quality land [10]

花旗研究报告指出，龙湖集团通过构建可持续模式，今年新增10个购物中心，带动租金增长10%。上半 年，公司同店销售和客流量分别增长3%和8%。此外，各业务产生正现金流，负债及成本持续降低，信 贷贷款多被资产支持营运贷款取代。报告预测，龙湖利润规模将于今年因去库存而触底，将其目标价由 11.7港元上调至15.8港元，并维持"买入"评级。 ...

下调盈利预测，维持买入评级。由于开发业务结算利润率承压，我们下调对公司2025-2027 年EPS 的预 测至0.60/0.60/0.62 元（原预测为0.94/1.00/1.08 元）。公司财务安全稳固，我们看好运营及服务业务未 来的增长空间和对公司估值的支撑作用，维持买入评级和14.15 港元的目标价不变。 2025 年上半年公司实现营收587.5 亿元，同比增长25.4%，营收增长主要由于开发业务结算收入的增 加。上半年核心净利润为13.8 亿元，同比下降70.9%，增收不增利主因上半年综合毛利率较上年同期下 降8.0 个百分点至12.6%，这主要由于结算毛利率的下降。运营及服务业务发展稳健，分别实现营收 70、63 亿元，分别同比增长2.5%、0.02%。商业运营保持良好发展势头，上半年商场营业额402 亿元， 同比增长17%，同店同比增长3%；商场租金收入55.0 亿元，同比增长4.9%。上半年末公司有息负债余 额为1698 亿元，较去年年末下降65 亿元；平均融资成本为3.58%，较去年年底下降0.42 个百分点，财 务安全性进一步提升。 风险提示：1）业绩方面，房地产市场目前仍处于底部区间，公司 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，龙湖集团构建可持续模式，今年新增10个购物中心，为公司带来10%的租金增 长，上半年同店销售及客流量分别按年增长3%和8%，加上各业务产生正现金流，并持续降低负债及成 本，而大部分信贷贷款亦被资产支持的营运贷款取代。该行预计，今年龙湖的利润规模将因去库存而触 底，并在明年回升。该行认为龙湖的利润具可持续性，料值得更高的估值倍数，目标价由11.7港元上调 至15.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...