高盛发布研报称，快手-W(61,-1.40,-2.24%)（01024）旗下可灵AI的年化收入运行率于3月突破1亿美元， 其后4月和5月的月度付费金额亦超过1亿元人民币，相信运行率将超越公司指引及市场预期。该行预计，可灵 AI的2025财年的收入将超过1.2亿美元，其后仍将快速增长。该行予快手"买入"评级，目标价63港元。 快手-W(01024):可灵AI次季收入趋势胜预期,评级"买入" 美国高盛 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's Keling technology and commercialization are showing strong upward momentum, with significant user engagement and revenue growth projected for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Technology and User Engagement - Keling's technology is leading in the market, ranking alongside Google's Veo series in video generation capabilities [1]. - In April, Keling's access volume reached 20.2 million, reflecting an 18.7% month-over-month increase [1]. - The commercialization of Keling is accelerating, with expected monthly revenue of 60 to 70 million CNY in Q1 2025, and April and May 2025 monthly revenues exceeding 100 million CNY, marking a tenfold increase [1][2]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The launch of Keling version 2.1 is anticipated to enhance user acquisition and payment growth due to its competitive pricing compared to similar products [3]. - Keling's product capabilities are expanding into multiple scenarios, including partnerships with gaming companies and marketing agencies, showcasing its versatility [4]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Shareholder Returns - Kuaishou's fundamentals remain robust, with a total of 1.9 billion HKD repurchased in 2025, contributing to a shareholder return safety net [5].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of rural e-commerce in China, driven by the increasing penetration of short video platforms, which are becoming essential tools for promoting agricultural products and enhancing rural economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Rural E-commerce Growth - In 2023, China's rural online retail sales reached 2.49 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Projections suggest that this figure will rise to 2.73 trillion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - By the end of 2024, the number of rural audio-visual users is expected to reach 30.304 million, with a usage rate of 96.6%, indicating widespread adoption of short video platforms among farmers [2]. Group 2: Role of Short Video Platforms - Short video platforms are playing a crucial role in rural e-commerce development by facilitating the sale of agricultural products through live streaming and innovative marketing strategies [4][8]. - The number of creators in the "agriculture and rural areas" category on short video platforms has increased, with a 19.8% year-on-year growth in the number of creators with over 10,000 followers, reflecting the expanding monetization opportunities for content creators [6]. Group 3: Impact on Agricultural Sales - The volume of agricultural group buying orders surged by 125% year-on-year, while the number of agricultural merchants grew by 32%, demonstrating the effectiveness of short video platforms in expanding sales channels for agricultural products [8]. - The number of e-commerce orders from "agriculture and rural areas" creators increased by 10.2%, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rising by 19.4%, further confirming the platforms' positive impact on rural e-commerce [8]. Group 4: Cultural Promotion and Tourism - Short video platforms are effectively promoting rural culture and enhancing the development of the cultural tourism industry, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in the number of creators focused on rural lifestyle content [10]. - The monthly video release volume and playback volume for rural lifestyle content have also seen significant increases of 29.6% and 25.9% respectively, indicating a growing audience interest and consumption in rural cultural content [10].

Group 1 - Kuaishou's commercial private messaging daily consumption peak has exceeded 16 million [1] - The number of active customers for the private messaging product has increased 18 times over the past year [1] - The private messaging service is favored by businesses in long-cycle and medium-to-heavy decision-making industries such as franchise, automotive, and local life services [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kuaishou Technology with a 12-month price target of HK$63.00, indicating an upside potential of 15.6% from the current price of HK$54.50 [1][12]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Kling AI has surpassed expectations with an Annualized Revenue Run Rate (ARR) exceeding US$100 million as of March 2025, and monthly subscription bookings exceeding RMB100 million (approximately US$14 million) in April and May [1][3]. - The launch of Kling 2.1 has significantly reduced costs, making it more competitive in the market, with per video costs dropping to US$0.27-0.47, which is 60-80% lower than the previous version [2][32]. - The revenue outlook for FY25 has been raised to US$100 million, with potential for further upside due to expanding use cases and increased promotional budgets [3][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou Technology are as follows: - FY24: RMB 126.9 billion - FY25: RMB 140.7 billion - FY26: RMB 153.7 billion - FY27: RMB 165.8 billion [6][16]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 27.1 billion in FY24 to RMB 40.5 billion in FY27, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][16]. - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 4.02 in FY25 to RMB 5.87 in FY27, reflecting a positive earnings outlook [6][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Kling AI has captured approximately 30% of the video generation AI model market, outpacing competitors like Runway and Google's Veo 2 as of May 2025 [20][23]. - The revenue mix for Kling AI indicates that 70% comes from 2C/2P subscription revenue, primarily from professional content creators, while 30% is derived from 2B API calling revenue [26][32]. - The company is focusing on expanding its user base, particularly in overseas markets, leveraging its technological advantages and improving user experience [23][32]. Valuation and Comparison - Kuaishou is currently trading at a forward P/E of 10X, which reflects its core video platform and advertising/eCommerce business, while Kling AI is expected to justify a premium valuation due to its growth potential [18][19]. - Comparatively, leading AI startups have ARR and valuations that suggest significant growth potential, with Kling AI's estimated ARR for FY25 at US$124 million [21][19].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's stock price has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of over 23% in the past five trading days, outperforming the Hang Seng Index during the same period [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Reports - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and CITIC Securities, have released reports focusing on Kuaishou's accelerating advertising business and the commercialization breakthrough of its AI product, Keling [1] - JPMorgan has designated Kuaishou as a top pick in China's digital entertainment sector, setting a target price of HKD 71, and expects advertising revenue growth to accelerate from 8% in Q1 to 19% in Q4 [1] - Keling's annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed USD 100 million in March, with monthly subscription bookings exceeding RMB 100 million in April and May, 70% of which comes from overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keling AI's Market Potential - Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for Keling AI, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2025 revenue estimate to USD 120 million and JPMorgan raising its full-year revenue forecast from RMB 450 million to RMB 750 million [2] - CITIC Securities projects Keling's annual revenue could reach USD 868 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.7%, and estimates a conservative valuation range of USD 3.6 billion to USD 4.8 billion [2] - Keling is positioned as a new infrastructure for video creation in the AGI era, establishing a full workflow from generation to editing, and is expected to serve various content production sectors [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - As of the report date, Kuaishou's stock price reached HKD 63.4, the highest since April, with expectations that the synergy between its advertising and AI businesses will further manifest as the Q2 financial report approaches [2]

从连续性进行统计， 有1只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有美团-W，连续 净买入天数分别为16天。以其间净买入金额统计，净买入金额最多的是美团-W，合计净买入为175.27 亿港元。有3只股获连续净卖出，净卖出金额居前的有腾讯控股、小米集团-W、中芯国际等，合计净卖 出金额分别为80.54亿港元、56.31亿港元、6.27亿港元。（数据宝） 6月9日南向资金成交活跃股 | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01801 | 信达生物 | 271750.94 | 112494.78 | 8.00 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 470002.94 | 104634.04 | 4.73 | | 02015 | 理想汽车-W | 108280.18 | 45205.40 | 2.74 | | 01093 | 石药集团 | 224175.92 | 40844.52 | -0.45 | | 01530 | 三生制药 | 67163.91 | 26521.08 | 8.1 ...

传媒 2025 年 06 月 09 日 快手-W (01024) ——可灵商业化超预期，看好 AI 带来业绩和估值弹性 上 市 公 司 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 59.10 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8629.75 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 68.90/37.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,536.29 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,560.90 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0920 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -29% 21% 71% HSCEI 快手-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 74.58 HKD per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant progress in its commercial operations, particularly with its Kuaishou Keling product, which achieved monthly revenues exceeding 1 billion CNY in April and May [3][8]. - The Keling 2.1 version was launched at the end of May, offering a higher cost-performance ratio, which is expected to drive user growth and increase paid subscriptions [8]. - The company is experiencing a positive cycle of technology iteration, product refinement, user payment, and revenue growth, similar to the trajectory of overseas competitors [8]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 195 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth to 246 billion CNY by 2027 [4][9]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 113.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 164.14 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [9][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company's stock price performance has shown a 20% increase over the past month and an 18.97% increase over the past week [6]. - The company has repurchased shares worth 19 billion HKD since the beginning of 2025, providing a safety net for shareholder returns [8].

智通财经APP获悉，2025年6月9日当天，美团-W(03690)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团-W(01810)位 居沪港通（南向）成交额前3位，成交额分别为28.65 亿元、28.14 亿元、23.77 亿元；腾讯控股 (00700)、美团-W(03690)、小米集团-W(01810) 位居深港通（南向）成交额前3位，成交额分别为26.05 亿元、18.35 亿元、17.69 亿元。 沪港通（南向）十大活跃成交公司 | 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美团-W(03690) | 28.65 亿元 | +6.20 亿元 | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 28.14 亿元 | -9.16 亿元 | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 23.77 亿元 | -7.50 亿元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 22.40 亿元 | -8.15 亿元 | | 快手-W(01024) | 19.33 亿元 | -1.54 亿元 | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 17.48 亿元 | -2.16 亿元 | | 中国银行(03988) | 14.56 ...