Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have continued to rise, exceeding 830 CNY/ton, but a short-term peak may be reached [1] - The core reason for the recent coal price increase is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics since May [1] - The coal production for October was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with production from July to October showing a continuous decline [1] - The total electricity consumption in August and September increased by 4.6%, a significant recovery from the 2.5% growth in Q1, indicating strong demand [1] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season, demand has remained unexpectedly high, particularly in East China [1] Group 3: Market Insights - As of November 14, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 837 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous week [2] - The focus on domestic supply stability and reduced imports is expected to maintain a steady decline in total supply for the year [2] - The operating rate of major coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating a slight increase [2] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [3] - Other recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [3]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks continue to decline, with notable drops in major companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, indicating a bearish trend in the coal sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, China Coal Energy (01898) fell by 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) decreased by 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (01088) dropped by 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) declined by 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have risen above RMB 830 per ton, but a short-term peak in coal prices may have been reached. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, suggesting a long-term upward trend in coal prices remains intact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongwu Securities, coal companies are expected to see their earnings bottom out starting from the third quarter, with coal prices projected to stabilize as they are anticipated to reach a low point in Q2 2025. This stability is expected to benefit leading companies, ensuring consistent profitability [1] - The expected decline in insurance capital costs may lead to a decrease in dividend yields for major players like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to decline, with China Coal Energy (601898) down 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) down 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) down 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, but the short-term surge may be coming to an end. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the current price increase, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that high dividend logic indicates coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, with coal companies' performance starting to recover from Q3. Future stability in coal prices is anticipated to support sustained profitability for leading companies [1] - It is projected that as insurance capital costs continue to decline, high dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) may see their dividend yield decrease from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (72.30%), Power Assets Holdings (69.38%), and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (69.31%) [1] - Alibaba, Xiaomi, and Tencent saw the largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days, with increases of HKD 56.17 billion, HKD 15.10 billion, and HKD 13.17 billion respectively [1] - The largest decreases in holdings were observed in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-HKD 20.12 billion), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (-HKD 15.76 billion), and China Shenhua Energy (-HKD 6.46 billion) [2] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728): 100.34 million shares, 72.30% holding ratio [1] - Power Assets Holdings (01635): 37 million shares, 69.38% holding ratio [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (01330): 28 million shares, 69.31% holding ratio [1] - Other notable companies include: - Hengtong International Investment (01341): 74.62 million shares, 68.79% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138): 88.9 million shares, 68.62% [1] Recent Increases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Alibaba (09988): +HKD 56.17 billion, +35.92 million shares [1] - Xiaomi (01810): +HKD 15.10 billion, +38.91 million shares [1] - Tencent (00700): +HKD 13.17 billion, +2.12 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include: - China Construction Bank (00939): +HKD 9.83 billion, +120.94 million shares [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398): +HKD 8.70 billion, +134.90 million shares [1] Recent Decreases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -HKD 20.12 billion, -77.44 million shares [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (02828): -HKD 15.76 billion, -16.85 million shares [2] - China Shenhua Energy (01088): -HKD 6.46 billion, -15.76 million shares [2] - Other companies with notable decreases include: - Agricultural Bank of China (01288): -HKD 5.89 billion, -99.68 million shares [2] - China Hongqiao Group (01378): -HKD 3.47 billion, -11.31 million shares [2]

Core Insights - The coal industry in China is experiencing a recovery in profitability despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices and corporate earnings [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The total electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in Q3 reached 1.76 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1% [2]. - Coal production and sales for 23 listed companies in the first three quarters were 940 million tons and 1.11 billion tons, respectively, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 [3]. - The average price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port rose from 641.7 yuan/ton to 679 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port increased from 1315.3 yuan/ton to 1566.7 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - The total profit for the coal industry in Q3 reached 75.5 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% [2]. - Among 37 listed coal companies, the net profit for Q3 was 29.942 billion yuan, up 22.83% from the previous quarter [3]. - Leading companies like China Shenhua reported a Q3 net profit of 14.7 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, driven by strong performance in the power sector [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As of November 12, the spot price for 5500 kcal coal in the Bohai Rim region reached 828 yuan/ton, exceeding the price at the beginning of the year [5]. - The coal market sentiment is currently high, with coastal power plant inventories down 5%-6% year-on-year due to slow replenishment during the off-season [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Wanjiac ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159333) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets year-to-date [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of November 19, 2024, the ETF closed up by 0.47% with a trading volume of 16.38 million yuan [1]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50% annually, and the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The ETF's performance benchmark is the ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index return (adjusted for valuation exchange rate) [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of November 18, 2024, the ETF has 328 million shares outstanding and a total size of 485 million yuan [1]. - Compared to December 31, 2024, the ETF's shares have decreased by 23.90% and its total size has decreased by 5.48% year-to-date [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 441 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 22.07 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has recorded a total trading volume of 8.108 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 38.06 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Holdings - The current fund manager is Yang Kun, who has managed the ETF since August 21, 2024, achieving a return of 52.34% during his tenure [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, China Nonferrous Mining, China Ocean Shipping, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, China Shenhua Energy, People's Insurance Group of China, CNOOC, and Agricultural Bank of China, with respective holding percentages [2].

Key Points - On November 14, significant net inflows were observed for Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981), with net inflows of 2.247 billion, 2.160 billion, and 798 million respectively [1][2] - The top three companies with the highest net outflows were China Shenhua (01088), China Life (02628), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -259 million, -248 million, and -213 million respectively [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, ICBC South China (03167), Southern Hong Kong Technology (03442), and Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) led the market with ratios of 100.00%, 83.79%, and 78.17% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios included Kunlun Energy (00135), Tongrentang (03613), and Modern Dairy (01117), with ratios of -56.35%, -48.89%, and -48.07% respectively [1][2] Top 10 Net Inflows - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 2.247 billion, representing a 14.18% increase, closing at 154.900 with a decrease of 4.38% [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 2.160 billion, with a 16.74% increase, closing at 641.000 with a decrease of 2.29% [2] - SMIC (00981) recorded a net inflow of 798 million, with an 11.40% increase, closing at 73.500 with a decrease of 2.78% [2] - Other notable inflows included Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 611 million and a 10.30% increase, and China Construction Bank (00939) with 559 million and a 36.81% increase [2] Top 10 Net Outflows - China Shenhua (01088) experienced a net outflow of -259 million, with a -46.43% decrease, closing at 41.640 with a decrease of 2.21% [2] - China Life (02628) had a net outflow of -248 million, representing an -8.70% decrease, closing at 27.380 with a decrease of 3.25% [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) saw a net outflow of -213 million, with a -9.27% decrease, closing at 67.100 with a decrease of 2.89% [2] - Other significant outflows included Agricultural Bank (01288) with -188 million and a -27.08% decrease, and Sanofi (01530) with -176 million and a -9.38% decrease [2] Net Inflow Ratios - ICBC South China (03167) achieved a net inflow ratio of 100.00% with a net inflow of 28,900 [3] - Southern Hong Kong Technology (03442) had a net inflow ratio of 83.79% with a net inflow of 20,525,100 [3] - Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432) recorded a net inflow ratio of 78.17% with a net inflow of 203,000 [3] - Other notable ratios included China Everbright Bank (06818) with 75.72% and a net inflow of 1.07 billion [3]

Core Insights - Insurance capital continues to increase its allocation to equity assets, with the proportion of equity assets reaching near historical highs in Q3 2025 [1] - The allocation structure shows a significant increase in technology and a reduction in high-end manufacturing sectors [5][6] - Insurance capital has accelerated its stake acquisitions in listed companies, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, with a notable increase in the number of acquisitions compared to previous years [9] Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation of insurance capital to various asset classes is as follows: bank deposits (7.9%), bonds (50.3%), stocks (10.0%), funds (5.5%), long-term equity investments (7.9%), and other assets (18.4%) [1] - The investment proportions in bank deposits and bonds decreased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, while the investment in stocks and funds surged to 15.5%, approaching the historical peak of 16.1% in H1 2015 [1] Sector and Stock Preferences - Insurance capital has significantly increased its allocation to banks, steel, and textile sectors, while reducing holdings in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy and military [5] - Key stocks that saw increased investment include Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Hikvision, while reductions were noted in stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aviation Industry Corporation of China [6][8] Shareholding Activities - In 2025, insurance capital has made 30 stake acquisitions in listed companies, surpassing the total for the entire years of 2020 and 2024, with 25 of these acquisitions in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The trend indicates a shift towards acquiring dividend-yielding assets in Hong Kong due to declining bond yields and rising traditional dividend assets [9]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) has dropped 3.42%, trading at HKD 27.64 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) is down 2.73%, currently at HKD 40.6 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) has decreased by 2.47%, with a price of HKD 11.46 [1]