Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant short-selling activity and potential investor sentiment towards these companies. Group 1: Top Short-Selling Ratios - JD Health (86618) has the highest short-selling ratio at 100.00% [1][2] - Hang Seng Bank (80011) follows with a short-selling ratio of 88.44% [1][2] - SenseTime (80020) has a short-selling ratio of 76.25% [1][2] Group 2: Top Short-Selling Amounts - Xiaomi Group (01810) leads in short-selling amount with 2.209 billion [1][2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) has a short-selling amount of 0.955 billion [1][2] - WuXi AppTec (02359) reports a short-selling amount of 0.698 billion [1][2] Group 3: Top Short-Selling Deviations - Hang Seng Bank (80011) has the highest deviation value at 48.82% [1][2] - JD Health (86618) follows with a deviation value of 45.78% [1][2] - Uni-President China (00220) has a deviation value of 33.70% [1][2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,271.92, down by 252.53 points or 0.99% on July 29 [1] - The index reached a high of 25,554.41 and a low of 25,232.19 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 66.91 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 102.137, up by 1.33% compared to the Hong Kong market close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 550.482, down by 0.81% compared to the Hong Kong market close [2] ADR Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: ADR price at HKD 550.482, down by HKD 4.518 or 0.81% [3] - Alibaba Group: ADR price at HKD 117.114, down by HKD 3.586 or 2.97% [3] - HSBC Holdings: ADR price at HKD 102.137, up by HKD 1.337 or 1.33% [3] - Xiaomi Group: ADR price at HKD 54.601, down by HKD 0.699 or 1.26% [3] - Meituan: ADR price at HKD 126.886, down by HKD 1.714 or 1.33% [3] - AIA Group: ADR price at HKD 74.746, down by HKD 0.054 or 0.07% [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges: ADR price at HKD 435.801, down by HKD 4.999 or 1.13% [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: ADR price at HKD 6.024, down by HKD 0.046 or 0.75% [3] - BYD Company: ADR price at HKD 126.396, down by HKD 1.904 or 1.48% [3] - Ping An Insurance: ADR price at HKD 56.163, down by HKD 0.237 or 0.42% [3]

"一人失能，全家失衡"，正成为全国3500万个家庭无法回避的沉重现实。当社会加速步入深度老龄化，如何为失能人员家庭筑起护理保 障防线成为重要课题。在政策性保险"保基本"与高品质护理需求之间，商业长期护理保险（以下简称"长护险"）恰似一场及时雨，为破 解困局提供了创新方案。如友邦人寿推出了《友邦友相护终身护理保险》1（以下简称"友相护"），借"广、优、宽、易"四大名片，为 破解"一人失能，全家失衡"的困局提供了新解法。 长期护理保险被称为继养老、医疗、工伤、失业、生育五大险种之后的第六险。与基本医保不同，长护险主要用于保障基本生活照料 和相关医疗护理所支付的费用。在业内人士看来，保险公司创新长护险产品不仅承载着政策性长护险的补充使命，更标志着商业长护 险从"基础保障"向"品质服务"的跨越，重新定义了护理保障的价值内涵。 银发浪潮下的护理保障缺口 家在山东的75岁老人照顾瘫痪母亲20年，妻子又突发脑梗半身不遂，为维持两位病人营养及理疗设备，退休金不堪重负；台州温岭此 前发生一起车祸，事故造成多车受损，其中导致一位骑电瓶车女子部分肢体截肢，护理机构协调、康复设备采购、心理疏导等需求如 潮水般涌来…… 常见于报端的类 ...

Group 1 - The adjustment of pricing interest rates may signal the end of the golden era for traditional increasing amount whole life insurance (IWLP), which, despite being favored by consumers, poses high interest rate risks for insurance companies [1] - The attractiveness of participating products is increasing, benefiting from a projected return rate of 6% to 6.5% in the Hong Kong market and similar benefits in the mainland market [1] - UBS estimates that the actual internal rate of return (IRR) for policyholders under the traditional product's 2.0% pricing interest rate is only 1.6% to 1.9%, indicating limited appeal for long-term holding (e.g., over 10 years) [1] Group 2 - In the transition to participating products, AIA China (01299) holds an advantage due to strong investment capabilities, with an average comprehensive investment return rate of 4.8% from 2021 to 2024, surpassing the industry average of 4% [2] - AIA China's new business value from long-term savings through agent channels exceeded 80% in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - China Ping An (601318) and China Life (601628) also performed better than their peers in the transition to participating products [2] Group 3 - The China Insurance Industry Association recently lowered the pricing interest rate (PIR) benchmark by 14 basis points to 1.99%, which is 51 basis points lower than the current traditional product's 2.5% [3] - This adjustment aligns with market expectations and reflects a downward trend in market interest rates anticipated for the second quarter of 2025 [3] - Major insurance companies have reduced the pricing interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal products to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0%, respectively, indicating a regulatory push towards participating products to mitigate interest spread risk [3]

Group 1 - The China Insurance Industry Association has lowered the pricing interest rate (PIR) benchmark by 14 basis points to 1.99%, which is 51 basis points lower than the current traditional product rate of 2.5% [1] - This adjustment aligns with market expectations and reflects a downward trend in market interest rates anticipated by the second quarter of 2025 [1] - Major insurance companies have adjusted the pricing interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal products to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% respectively, indicating a regulatory push towards participating products to mitigate interest spread risk [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in pricing interest rates may signal the end of the golden era for traditional increasing death benefit whole life insurance (IWLP), which, despite consumer popularity, poses significant interest rate risks for insurance companies [1] - Participating products are becoming more attractive, with the Hong Kong market showing projected returns of 6% to 6.5%, benefiting both the Hong Kong and mainland markets [1] - UBS estimates that the actual internal rate of return (IRR) for policyholders with a 2.0% pricing interest rate on traditional products is only between 1.6% and 1.9%, making long-term holding (over 10 years) less appealing [1] Group 3 - As insurance companies accelerate the transition to participating products, the interest rate sensitivity of new business value is expected to decline significantly in the first half of 2025 [2] - The increased proportion of participating products may lead to a higher allocation of equity assets (such as stocks) due to their higher risk tolerance in investment accounts [2] - AIA China (01299) is positioned advantageously in the transition to participating products, with a strong investment capability and a higher average comprehensive investment return rate of 4.8% from 2021 to 2024, surpassing the industry average of 4% [2]

AIA Group (1299.HK) 1H25 Preview Summary Company Overview - AIA Group is set to report its 2Q/1H25 results on August 21, 2025, before market opening [1] Key Financial Metrics - **Value of New Business (VONB)**: Expected to grow by 14% year-over-year (yoy) to US$2,809 million in 1H25, with a faster growth rate of 16% yoy in 2Q25 compared to 13% in 1Q25 [7][12] - **Net Free Surplus Generation (NFSG)**: Anticipated to increase by 9% yoy to US$2.442 billion in 1H25, up from a 2% increase in FY24 [9][12] - **Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT)**: Expected to rise by 3% yoy to US$3.49 billion in 1H25, slower than the 6% growth in FY24 [8][12] - **Embedded Value (EV)**: Projected to increase by 2% to US$70.1 billion in 1H25 [10][12] Market Performance Insights - **Hong Kong**: Anticipated to be the main driver of VONB growth, with a projected increase of 23% yoy in 1H25 [6][11] - **Mainland China**: Expected to see a decline of 6% yoy in VONB for 1H25, primarily due to negative impacts from economic assumption changes [6][11] - **Thailand**: Forecasted to show a decline in VONB in 2Q25 due to demand being pulled forward ahead of regulatory changes [6][11] Strategic Focus Areas - Emphasis on underlying growth drivers such as: 1. Growth in mainland China and newly established regions 2. Sales momentum in Hong Kong 3. Factors contributing to NFSG growth, including operational variances and capital efficiency improvements [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HK$83 from HK$90, based on a 1.4X FY26E P/EV, implying an 18% upside [3] - The medium-term Return on Embedded Value (ROEV) is estimated at 14.7%, with a Cost of Equity (COE) of 11.2% and a long-term growth rate of 2% [3][24] Additional Insights - The company does not expect any additional buybacks for FY25, suggesting a focus on growth rather than capital return strategies [2] - The anticipated increase in interim dividends per share (DPS) is 8% yoy to US$0.062 [10][12] - AIA's valuation methodology has shifted from a discounted model-based valuation to a P/EV multiple approach, reflecting a greater emphasis on capital generation capabilities [18][23] Conclusion - AIA Group is positioned for growth in 1H25, with strong performance expected in Hong Kong, while facing challenges in mainland China. The strategic focus on underlying growth drivers and adjustments in valuation methodology indicate a proactive approach to navigating market dynamics.

Core Insights - The report indicates that housing rental companies are showing significant development in scale expansion and operational efficiency under the backdrop of continuous policy support [6][8]. Group 1: Market Expansion - In the recent report, 22 new rental projects were opened by sample companies, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous reporting period, indicating a vibrant supply side in the housing rental market [2]. - The sample companies are strategically focusing on cities with high market demand and population density, primarily in economically active regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and central core cities [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Vanke's rental division, Vanke Boyu, has achieved a management scale of 262,000 rooms, with a rental rate of 95.6% and a customer satisfaction rate exceeding 95% [8]. - The company has also reported a significant reduction in customer acquisition costs, with self-owned channels accounting for 88.5% of customer acquisition [8]. Group 3: Diverse Product Offerings - The new projects launched include a variety of product types such as white-collar apartments, talent apartments, hotel apartments, large rental communities, and guaranteed rental housing, catering to different residential needs [5]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The long-term rental apartment investment market is experiencing diverse participation, with entities like AIA Insurance and local state-owned enterprises actively engaging in asset acquisitions [12][14]. - AIA Insurance's acquisition of the Yumi Community in Shanghai, which offers 2,252 guaranteed rental units, exemplifies the growing interest in long-term rental assets [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuous encouragement of policies is enhancing the market's recognition of the value of long-term rental apartment assets, attracting diverse capital, including insurance and state-owned enterprise funds [14][15]. - The improvement of exit mechanisms such as REITs is expected to invigorate the long-term rental apartment investment market, potentially attracting more capital and driving industry scale expansion and operational upgrades [15].

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 life insurance industry has seen a decline in employee compensation and a historical low in the salary-to-premium ratio, indicating potential challenges in operational efficiency and profitability [2][14]. Group 1: Salary and Premium Ratio Analysis - In 2024, the total employee compensation in the life insurance industry was 108.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, with a salary-to-premium ratio of 3.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, marking a 15-year low [2][14]. - The "TOP7+1" companies (including major players like China Life and Ping An) had a salary-to-premium ratio of 3.3%, which is significantly lower than that of small and medium-sized insurance companies, which stood at 3.7% [17][18]. - The average salary-to-premium ratio for 70 life insurance companies over the past five years was 4.0%, with a median of 4.9%, and 11 companies exceeding 10% [5][28]. Group 2: Impact on Return on Equity (ROE) - The salary-to-premium ratio has a significant negative impact on a company's ROE, with each 1 percentage point increase in the ratio leading to a 0.37 percentage point decrease in ROE [24][25]. - The empirical model constructed to analyze this relationship included variables such as company size and channel type, confirming the negative correlation between salary-to-premium ratio and ROE [24][25]. Group 3: Historical Trends - The salary-to-premium ratio has shown a declining trend since 2018, with a notable acceleration in the decline for small and medium-sized insurance companies since 2019 [16][18]. - The ratio increased from 4.2% in 2010 to a peak of 5.3% in 2015, followed by a steady decline to the current levels [16][18]. Group 4: Employee Compensation Insights - The life insurance industry employed approximately 345,000 individuals in 2023, with an average compensation and benefits level of 330,000 yuan [10][22]. - The fluctuation in employee numbers has shown a slight decline, while average compensation has seen minor increases over recent years [10][22].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations around 3600 points, closing up 0.12% at 3597.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to 11217.58 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.96% to 2362.6 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 176.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 52 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector saw significant gains, with New China Life Insurance rising nearly 5% to reach a historical high, and China Life, China Ping An increasing by approximately 3% [3][4] - The China Insurance Industry Association announced a reduction in the guaranteed interest rates for traditional life insurance products, which is expected to improve the liability costs and net investment returns for life insurance companies [4][5] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector showed strong performance, with companies like Guangsheng Pharmaceutical rising nearly 14%, and Heng Rui Medicine, Hai Si Ke, and Lian Huan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [7] - Heng Rui Medicine's total market capitalization exceeded 400 billion yuan, indicating robust investor interest [7] PCB Sector - The PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sector was active, with companies such as Fangbang Co., and Chipbond Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and Shenghong Technology rising over 17% to reach a historical high [11][12] - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to grow rapidly due to AI computing needs, with a projected supply-demand ratio for global AI PCBs in 2026 ranging from 80% to 103%, indicating a tight supply situation [13]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.68% to 25,562.13 points, while the Tech Index fell by 0.24% to 5,664.02 points, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.29% to 9,177.15 points [2][3]. Hang Seng Index Movement - The Hang Seng Index reached a high of 25,660.54 points in the morning but maintained a volatile pattern before closing slightly higher [4]. Sector Performance - Insurance, pharmaceuticals, and brokerage stocks saw collective strength, while coal, shipping, and photovoltaic stocks experienced adjustments [5]. Insurance Sector Strength - Major insurance stocks like AIA Group (up 4.96%), China Pacific Insurance (up 3.91%), and Ping An Insurance (up 3.49%) saw significant gains due to a favorable assessment of life insurance reserve interest rates, which are expected to lower the new business liability costs for insurers [6][7]. Pharmaceutical Sector Boost - Pharmaceutical stocks surged, with companies like Fonda Holdings (up 10.39%), Zhaoyan New Drug (up 6.76%), and Via Biotechnology (up 5.45%) benefiting from overseas licensing deals, including a notable $12.5 billion collaboration between Hengrui Medicine and GlaxoSmithKline [8][9]. Brokerage Sector Gains - Brokerage stocks such as Guotai Junan International (up 9.45%), Shenwan Hongyuan Hong Kong (up 7.32%), and Xingzheng International (up 5.08%) experienced strong performance, likely influenced by the upcoming implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong [11][13]. Weakness in Cyclical Stocks - Coal, shipping, and photovoltaic stocks faced declines, with companies like Feishang Non-Ferrous Coal (down 15.28%) and COSCO Shipping Ports (down 10.99%) leading the downturn due to falling commodity prices in the futures market [14][18]. Individual Stock Movements - Xuanwu Cloud saw a significant increase of 28% following a strategic partnership with LG Uplus, while Zhejiang United Investment surged by 116.67% on expectations of turning a profit by April 2025 [23][24].