Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearing cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Outlook - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [1] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading companies within specific sub-industries, particularly in areas such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearance cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Summary - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in specific sub-sectors [1] Investment Focus - Specific areas of interest include energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and leading integrated component manufacturers [1]

中国经济网北京11月27日讯中兰环保（300854）(300854.SZ)日前披露2025年三季度报告。 2025年1-9月，公司实现营业收入3.76亿元，同比下降9.01%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-2,063.11 万元，上年同期为1,354.92万元；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-3,127.52万元， 上年同期为616.36万元；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为-4,861.70万元，上年同期为-8,189.05万元。 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告期末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 増減 | | 年同期增减 | | 营业收入(元) | 84. 548. 886. 73 | -23.56% | 375, 563, 912. 75 | -9. 01% | | 归属于上市公司股东 | -26, 259, 111. 25 | -2, 652. 27% | -20,631,067.29 | -252. 27% | | 的净利润(元) | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东 的扣除非经常性损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes key industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, and embodied intelligence, presenting clear strategic opportunities for the machinery sector [1][3]. Investment Highlights - In November, the CITIC Machinery sector declined by 5.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2]. - Among the sub-industries, aerial work platforms, other transportation equipment, and shipbuilding saw positive growth, with increases of 2.22%, 1.35%, and 0.31% respectively, while lithium battery equipment, forklifts, and photovoltaic equipment experienced significant declines [2]. Policy and Growth Opportunities - The new emerging industries outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly aerospace, low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, and embodied intelligence, are highly relevant to the machinery industry, providing clear strategic guidance and new investment opportunities [3]. Market Adjustment and Defensive Value - The market experienced notable adjustments in November, with previously weak sectors like shipbuilding and aerial work platforms performing relatively well, while strong sectors such as solid-state battery equipment and humanoid robots faced significant pullbacks [4]. - The recommendation is to focus on domestic demand-driven sectors with stable fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment [4]. Growth Potential and Investment Opportunities - Despite recent adjustments in themes like humanoid robots and AIDC supporting equipment, the long-term growth logic remains intact, with continued investment opportunities as market sentiment improves and risk appetite increases [5]. - The company suggests maintaining focus on traditional engineering machinery leaders and shipbuilding leaders, as well as key players in humanoid robots and AIDC construction beneficiaries [5].

分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 投资要点： 第1页 / 共12页 河南研究：经济数据跟踪（2025 年 10 月） 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 全国经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，全国固定资产 投资（不含农户）累计同比下降 1.7%，房地产开发投资累计同比 下降 14.7%。总体来看，10 月份"反内卷"治理成效有所显现，高 技术制造业发展支撑经济韧性，但同时主要经济指标均有回落，内 需不足问题持续显现。往后看，主要经济指标回暖仍受到政策效应 退坡、前期需求透支、地产深度调整等系列因素阻力，但财政已通 过提前下达专项资金的方式进行托举，11 月人民日报文章《保持财 政政策取向不变力度不减》也指出"我国财政资源和举债空间仍然 充裕"。因此，预期四季度经济整体仍较具韧性。 河南省经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，河南省规模以上工业增加 值同比增 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Sifang New Materials (四方新材) fell to 13.48 yuan, a decrease of 3.65% [1] - Sifang New Materials was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 10, 2021, with an initial issuance of 30.90 million shares at a price of 42.88 yuan per share [1] - The highest price recorded since the listing was 61.75 yuan, indicating the stock is currently in a state of decline [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Sifang New Materials reported an operating revenue of 1.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.93% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -164 million yuan, compared to a profit of 12.96 million yuan in the previous year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 11.80 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 87.50% year-on-year [2]

Group 1: Copper - The supply-demand imbalance for copper is becoming evident, with the price center expected to rise due to tight copper concentrate supply and surging green demand [1] - Global copper mine grades are declining, and long-term insufficient capital expenditure has limited new mining projects, contributing to a tight copper concentrate market [1] - Demand for copper is supported by investments in electricity, new energy vehicles, and data center construction, driven by global monetary easing and green transition trends [1] - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), which have rich resource reserves and clear capacity planning [1] Group 2: Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is tight, with domestic capacity capped at 45 million tons and limited new capacity, while overseas production progress is slow [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum shows structural resilience, and prices are expected to rise due to rigid supply, low inventory, and cost support [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be around 22,000 yuan/ton by 2026, with increasing profitability leading companies to raise dividend ratios [2] - Key companies to watch include Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ), Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH), and Shenhuo Group (000933.SZ) [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - The value of gold as an investment is highlighted amid the Fed's policy shift and ongoing global macro uncertainties [3] - Silver, with both industrial and monetary properties, shows stronger price elasticity during liquidity easing cycles [3] - The gold-silver ratio is expected to decline from around 100 in May 2025 to about 80 by November 2025, indicating potential for downward correction [3] - Recommended investment opportunities include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Shengda Resources (000603.SZ) [3] Group 4: Superhard Materials - Traditional demand for superhard products is under pressure, leading the industry into a downturn [4] - However, breakthroughs in functional diamond technology are opening new growth opportunities, particularly in high-end chip cooling applications [4] - Companies to focus on include Guoji Precision (002046.SZ), which has made progress in functional diamonds, and Sifangda (300179.SZ), which has large-scale CVD diamond production lines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyuan Securities indicates that a series of AI industry catalytic events will occur in 2026, strengthening the leading position of top optical module manufacturers due to their technological, customer, and scale advantages. The current valuation of the communication industry index is below the ten-year average, and the industry maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating based on performance growth expectations and valuation levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - In early 2025, the DeepSeek large model boosted market sentiment, and the three major operators completed the deployment of DeepSeek computing power private networks, enhancing their cloud service capabilities. Domestic cloud manufacturers provided positive capital expenditure guidance, leading to an increase in industry valuations. However, from February to April, the industry index experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and future demand for optical modules. By mid-April, the easing of tariff policies and validation of AI computing power demand led to a gradual recovery in the industry index and valuations. In late July, North American cloud manufacturers raised their capital expenditure guidance, further catalyzing the industry. Since September, leading manufacturers faced short-term performance fatigue due to product iterations and customer structure adjustments, raising concerns about unclear downstream business models [2]. Outlook for 2026 - A series of AI industry catalytic events are expected, including the mass production of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin GPU, the release of Google's new large model Gemini, and clear capital expenditure guidance from cloud manufacturers. AI smartphones equipped with large models are anticipated to become personalized smart assistants, potentially driving the next wave of smartphone upgrades. The development of key 6G technologies by telecom operators is expected to accelerate revenue growth from AI computing power. The report is optimistic about the high industry prosperity and strong growth potential of optical modules, optical devices, optical chips, and the increasing penetration of AI smartphones, as well as the stable operations of quality dividend assets in telecom operators [3][4]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for Leading Cloud Manufacturers - The demand for 800G is increasing, and the industry is transitioning from 800G to 1.6T technology. Leading optical module manufacturers are expected to further highlight their advantages due to technological leadership, stable customer relationships, and scalable delivery capabilities. The development of AI is driving the construction of large data centers, benefiting optical device manufacturers. The long R&D and expansion cycles for optical chips create high barriers in technology, talent, customer validation, and capital, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap for certain optical chips. The increasing demand for domestic controllable solutions is expected to translate into performance for domestic computing power. Recommended companies to watch include: NewEase, Huagong Technology, Guangxun Technology, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, and Taicheng Light [4]. AI Smartphones and Market Trends - Generative AI smartphones are set to provide users with new interactive experiences, multimodal content generation capabilities, personalized services, and innovative application ecosystems. The continuous improvement of edge AI computing power and large model capabilities is expected to further increase the market penetration of AI smartphones. Innovations and upgrades in AI smartphones are likely to lead to higher average selling prices and improved profit margins. The growth in edge AI shipments will drive sustained growth in core product lines of consumer electronics components [5]. Telecom Operators' Performance - The three major telecom operators are considered quality dividend assets with high dividend yield potential, offering cash dividends twice a year. The quality of traditional business revenue is improving, and a decrease in capital expenditure is expected to lower future depreciation and amortization costs, maintaining stable operations. Additionally, telecom operators are likely to leverage their advantages in data centers, big data, and network infrastructure to reconstruct business models with the help of AI. Investment recommendations include focusing on the optical module, optical device, and optical chip sectors, as well as AI smartphone and telecom operator sectors [6].

Market Overview - On November 24, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3816 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12585.08 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,406 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day but above the three-year average[3] Sector Performance - Industries such as shipbuilding, cultural media, aerospace, and software development showed strong performance, while energy metals, insurance, and fertilizer sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with significant inflows into shipbuilding, aerospace, and internet services[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.77 times and 46.14 times, respectively, indicating they are above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market conditions suggest a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid excessive trading, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact the recovery process[4]

National Economic Data - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[12] - Tax revenue accounted for CNY 15,336 billion, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to CNY 33,126 billion[12] - General public budget expenditure totaled CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 6.3% to CNY 34,727 billion[12] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue for the same period was CNY 34,473 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year[14] - Expenditure from the government fund budget surged by 15.4% to CNY 80,892 billion[14] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years as of November 20, 2025[22] - The average interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement stood at 1.4%[47] Energy Consumption - In October 2025, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[26] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to October was 86,246 billion kWh, up 5.1% year-on-year[27] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.13% this week, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 5.09%[66] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.90%, reflecting a broader market downturn[69] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed the least decline at -0.89%, while the electric equipment sector faced the largest drop at -10.54%[75] - The basic chemical sector also experienced significant losses, declining by 7.47%[75] Financing and Debt Issuance - As of November 21, 2025, cumulative issuance of government bonds increased by 19% compared to the same period in 2024, while local government bonds rose by 27%[54] - Corporate bonds saw a significant decline of 60% year-on-year in issuance[54] Institutional Fund Flow - This week, institutional funds saw a net outflow from the medical biology sector amounting to CNY 32.15 billion, while the electronic sector experienced a net outflow of CNY 50.32 billion[78] - The banking sector was the only one to see a net inflow of CNY 0.6 billion[78]