Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,951.48, down by 171.42 points or 0.68% as of August 19, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 25,154.24 and a low of 24,938.43 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 39.6558 million [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 25,778.47, while the 52-week low is 17,034.99 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 99.581, up 0.54% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 588.764, down 0.63% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a price of HKD 592.500, an increase of HKD 5.500 or 0.94%, but its ADR price was HKD 588.764, down HKD 3.736 compared to the Hong Kong close [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) closed at HKD 118.300, down HKD 0.300 or 0.25%, with an ADR price of HKD 116.979, down HKD 1.321 [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) had a closing price of HKD 99.050, up HKD 0.600 or 0.61%, with an ADR price of HKD 99.581, up HKD 0.531 [3] - Xiaomi Group (01810) closed at HKD 52.400, down HKD 0.650 or 1.23%, with an ADR price of HKD 52.255, down HKD 0.145 [3] - AIA Group (01299) closed at HKD 74.200, down HKD 0.400 or 0.54%, with an ADR price of HKD 73.722, down HKD 0.478 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased aluminum prices and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Segment Performance - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Revenue reached 51.88 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [1]. - **Alumina**: Revenue was 20.66 billion yuan, a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Revenue reached 8.07 billion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5%. The average selling price was 20,615 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase [1]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion Hong Kong dollars on share buybacks in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars for buybacks in the future, indicating strong confidence in its development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a stable high dividend payout rate, with a dividend rate of 63.4% for 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [3]. - A decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance cost advantages and improve earnings elasticity [3]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [3]. - The company is also expanding into iron ore resources through its stake in the Guinea iron ore project, which may provide additional investment returns [3]. Investment Recommendations - The upward trend in aluminum prices and significant cost advantages are expected to enhance earnings elasticity, with projected net profits of 24.93 billion yuan, 25.89 billion yuan, and 27.24 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times [4].

机构：中金公司 研究员：Zheng WANG/Ding QI/Yan CHEN 1H25 results in line with our expectations The firm announced its 1H25 results: Revenue rose 10.1% YoY to about Rmb81.04bn; gross profit grew 16.9% YoY to about Rmb20.81bn; attributable net profit rose 35.0% YoY to over Rmb12.36bn. The 1H25 financials were in line with our expectations. The firm's earnings hit a historical high, driven by rising product sales volume and prices. The firm's sales volume of aluminum alloy rose 2.4% YoY to nearly 2.91mnt, with the ASP up ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) has seen significant stock performance, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization nearing HKD 228 billion, driven by strong financial results and positive analyst outlooks [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Hongqiao reported revenue of approximately HKD 81.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - The net profit for the same period was around HKD 12.36 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 35% [1] Analyst Revisions - Goldman Sachs raised its target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 12.5 to HKD 19.6, citing a 31% year-on-year increase in recurring net profit to HKD 14.5 billion, driven by better-than-expected alumina profits [1] - Jefferies also increased its target price from HKD 17.7 to HKD 26.9, highlighting a new share buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion and a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% [1] Future Projections - Goldman Sachs adjusted its recurring profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 13-39%, reflecting improved alumina profits and rising aluminum price differentials in China [1] - Jefferies included projected profits from the Simandou iron ore joint venture, expected to ship by the end of 2025, with a full production cycle of approximately two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a 66.50% increase year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the raw materials sector [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index reported a value of 2721.61 points [1]. - The index has increased by 16.75% over the past month and 41.99% over the last three months [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (25.69%), China Hongqiao (11.83%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.66%) [1]. - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1]. Group 3: Sector Breakdown - The index's sample composition shows that non-ferrous metals account for 79.48%, non-metallic materials for 14.17%, chemicals for 4.69%, and paper and packaging for 1.66% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant performance of the China Securities Hong Kong 100 Raw Materials Index, which has shown substantial increases over various time frames [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong 100 Raw Materials Index reported a 14.65% increase over the past month, a 41.71% increase over the past three months, and a 74.90% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is classified according to the China Securities industry classification standards, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The index is fully composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] - Within the holdings of the index, gold constitutes 68.47% and aluminum constitutes 31.53% [1] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's (01378) profit forecast for 2025 has been raised, and projections for 2026 and 2027 now include profits from the Simandou iron ore joint venture project, which is expected to ship by the end of 2025 with a full production cycle of approximately two years [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased from HKD 17.7 to HKD 26.9, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In the first half of the year, China Hongqiao's net profit increased by 35% year-on-year to RMB 12.4 billion, attributed to its vertically integrated model that stabilizes production costs [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of aluminum and alumina has risen, leading to an increase in unit gross profit to RMB 225 and RMB 185 per ton, respectively [1] - A significant highlight of the performance is the announcement of a new share buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion, along with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for the year, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's (01378) profit forecast for 2025 has been raised, and projections for 2026 and 2027 now include profits from the Simandou iron ore joint venture project, which is expected to ship by the end of 2025 with a full production cycle of approximately two years [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased from HKD 17.7 to HKD 26.9, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In the first half of the year, China Hongqiao's net profit increased by 35% year-on-year to RMB 12.4 billion, attributed to its vertically integrated model that stabilizes production costs [1] Group 2 - The average selling price increase led to a rise in unit gross margins for aluminum and alumina, reaching RMB 225 and RMB 185 per ton respectively [1] - A significant highlight of the performance is the announcement of a new share buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion, along with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for the year, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance [1]

2025年上半年氧化铝业务营收同比增长28%，毛利润同比增长44%。氧化铝平均销售价格为每吨3244元 人民币，同比增长10%。 花旗在报告中表示，中国宏桥计划回购不低于30亿港元的公司股份，表明公司对其发展前景和长期投资 价值充满信心。 按业务划分，2025年上半年铝业务营收同比增长5%，毛利润同比增长9%。铝平均销售价格为每吨 18178元人民币，同比增长3%。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报，维持对中国宏桥(01378)的"买入"评级，目标价为25.20港元，并继 续列为行业首选股。 数据显示，中国宏桥2025年上半年净利润为124亿元人民币，同比增长35%，符合预期。2025 年上半 年，该公司总营收同比增长10%;营业利润为181亿元人民币，同比增长21%。 ...

产能方面，3月18日，中国宏桥关停滨州宏诺72.3万吨原铝生产线项目C系列24.1万吨产能，置换启动宏 泰E 系列12.147万吨、D系列11.906万吨产能。7月1日，公司永久退出44.8万吨产能，置换启动公司控股 子公司云南宏泰D系列6.975 万吨产能、云南宏合B系列16.07万吨产能。 另外，中国宏桥对云南宏泰的持股比例提升至90.07%，云南宏泰拥有203万吨电解铝产能，中国宏桥将 受益股权比例的提升，电解铝权益产能增长45.7万吨。基于对公司未来前景及长远投资价值的坚定信 心，并考虑到公司的财务状况及营运表现，中国宏桥拟进行股份回购，计划购回总金额不低于30亿港 元。国盛证券认为，当前时点下产能兑现及降本增效为竞争关键，公司有望通过海外拓展与上下游深度 赋能实现跨越式增长。 国盛证券指出，从"量"来看，25H1中国宏桥电解铝销量290.6万吨，同比增长2.4%；氧化铝销量636.8万 吨，同比增长15.6%；铝加工产品销量39.2万吨，同比增长3.5%。从"价"来看，2025年上半年公司电解 铝售价（不含税）为1.79万元/吨，同比增长2.7%；氧化铝售价（不含税）为3243 元/吨，同比增长 1 ...