Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer for its innovative PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which is expected to enhance its global presence and financial returns while retaining rights in mainland China [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement Details - The agreement grants Pfizer exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize SSGJ-707 globally, excluding mainland China [1]. - The company will receive an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion based on development, regulatory approval, and sales [1]. - Pfizer will also purchase $100 million worth of common stock from the company upon the agreement's effective date [1]. Group 2: Clinical and Financial Impact - SSGJ-707 has shown promising clinical results in treating NSCLC, with excellent overall response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR), indicating its potential as a best-in-class therapy [2]. - The drug has received breakthrough therapy designation from the CDE for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer [2]. - The collaboration is expected to significantly enhance the company's financial returns and support the upgrade of its R&D system, integrating it better into the global biopharmaceutical value chain [2]. Group 3: Growth and Innovation Pipeline - The company is focusing on expanding its mature product portfolio while driving growth through innovative pipelines, with significant product launches expected from 2025 onwards [3]. - The company has established a global strategy, with products sold in 16 countries and active collaborations to expand important pipelines like PD-1 [3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a steady increase in net profit from 2.362 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.976 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 13.0%, 12.3%, and 12.2% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has entered into a significant agreement with Pfizer regarding the global development, production, and commercialization rights for its innovative PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which highlights the company's innovative capabilities and potential for value realization [6] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts, with projected net profits of 2.328 billion, 2.612 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.09, and 1.23 yuan per share [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.3, 8.3, and 7.4 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 was 7.836 billion yuan, with projections of 9.108 billion yuan for 2024 and 10.078 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.1%, 16.2%, and 10.7% respectively [9] - Net profit for 2023 was 1.549 billion yuan, with projections of 2.090 billion yuan for 2024 and 2.328 billion yuan for 2025, showing a year-over-year growth of (19.1)%, 34.9%, and 11.4% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 84.2% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 26.6% in 2025 to 26.8% in 2027 [9] - The company’s ROE is projected to improve from 0.8% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2027 [9]

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The report analyzes the risk of a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, indicating that the scale of US Treasury holdings and daily trading volume is significantly larger than that of any other country, suggesting that no single nation can manipulate the US Treasury market [2] - Historical data shows that reductions in overseas holdings have less impact on US Treasury trends compared to fundamental variables, but a coordinated sell-off by multiple countries in response to tariffs could significantly disrupt the US Treasury market and global financial markets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income - In April, the broad fiscal revenue showed a slight positive change with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while fiscal expenditure grew by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in spending [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 7.2% [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Investment recommendations for the liquor sector emphasize strengthening core capabilities and highlight three main lines: leading brands with increasing market share, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [3] - For consumer products, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in beer and beverages, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from policy changes or recovery improvements, as well as those with high growth potential [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report discusses the collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion [6] - Sanofi retains rights for development and commercialization in mainland China, while Pfizer will have an option for commercialization in that region based on agreed financial terms [6]

Fixed Income - The new policy for "Science and Technology Innovation Bonds" (科创债) has led to banks, particularly state-owned banks, being the primary issuers, with a total issuance of 115 billion yuan from May 6 to May 16, 2025 [7][8] - The issuers of these bonds are predominantly high-rated central and state-owned enterprises, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 83.39% of the total issuance [8] - The new policy has relaxed restrictions on the use of funds raised through these bonds, allowing for a broader range of applications, including loans for technology innovation [9] New Consumption - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [11] - The growth in retail sales was driven by essential consumption, with food and daily necessities showing robust growth, while discretionary spending on jewelry and communication devices also increased significantly [12] - Furniture and home appliances saw particularly strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 26.9% and 38.8% respectively [12] Metals and New Materials - The profitability of the gold and copper-aluminum sectors has significantly increased due to rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector has seen a substantial decline in profitability [14] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 147.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.73% and 2.61% respectively [14] - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [15][19] Pharmaceuticals - Sanofi's licensing agreement for PD-1/VEGF dual antibody rights outside of China with Pfizer is valued at 1.25 billion USD upfront, with potential milestone payments of up to 4.8 billion USD [26][27] - The agreement is expected to enhance the company's valuation significantly, with a target market value of 59.5 billion yuan (approximately 64.5 billion HKD) [4][29] - Warner Pharmaceuticals is focusing on innovative antidepressants and the replacement of endangered medicinal materials, with a new antidepressant ZG001 showing promise as a fast-acting, non-addictive option [31][34]

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - Net buying of China Construction Bank reached 689 million, Meituan-W 655 million, China National Offshore Oil Corporation 586 million, and others [1] - Net selling of Tencent Holdings amounted to 1.327 billion, Alibaba-W 897 million, and Xiaomi Group-W 447 million [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net sold Tencent for 12 days, totaling 15.23301 billion HKD, and Xiaomi for 4 days, totaling 1.73224 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Individual Company Updates - China Construction Bank and other major banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, with several banks lowering rates by 15 basis points [5] - Meituan-W saw a decrease in BlackRock's shareholding from 6.15% to 5.92% as of May 15 [6] - Xiaomi Group celebrated a 15-year partnership with Qualcomm, announcing a new multi-year cooperation agreement for flagship smartphones [6] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Three-Six Pharmaceutical announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of 1.25 billion [4] - Zhaoke Ophthalmology reported that the National Medical Products Administration of China has accepted a new drug application for cyclosporine eye gel [4]

Core Insights - On May 20, 2023, 3SBio announced a significant agreement with Pfizer, granting exclusive global rights (excluding mainland China) for the development, production, and commercialization of its innovative PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 [2] - The deal includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, setting a record for upfront payments for domestic innovative drugs, and potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.8 billion, bringing the total potential deal value to $6.05 billion (approximately 43 billion RMB) [2] - Following the announcement, 3SBio's stock surged over 35% on May 20 and continued to rise by over 8% the next day [2] Company Developments - SSGJ-707 has shown excellent efficacy in treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with promising objective response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR) in clinical trials [3] - The drug has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC, and has also received IND approval from the FDA [3] - Clinical research for SSGJ-707 is also advancing in the treatment of colorectal cancer and gynecological tumors [3] Market Reactions - The capital market reacted strongly to the announcement, with 3SBio's stock price increasing significantly [2] - Other companies in the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody space, such as Kangfang Biologics, experienced stock fluctuations following the news, indicating a competitive landscape [5] Strategic Considerations - Pfizer's interest in the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody space is part of a broader strategy, as it has previously engaged in collaborations in this area [4] - The oncology segment of Pfizer is facing challenges with its small molecule drugs, prompting a shift towards ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) strategies, which are becoming a research focus [6] - The combination of ADCs with high-quality bispecific antibodies is seen as a potential avenue for enhancing treatment efficacy in oncology [6]

5月21日港股市场，北水成交净买入14.27亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入27.65亿港元，港股通(深) 成交净卖出13.38亿港元。 港股通(深)活跃成交股 北水净买入最多的个股是建设银行（601939）(00939)、美团-W(03690)、中海油(00883)。北水净卖出最 多的个股是腾讯(00700)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、盈富基金(02800)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 小米集团-W | 24.00亿 | 26.43亿 | 50.43 乙 | | HK 01810 | | | -2.43 Z | | 腾讯控股 | 12.18亿 | 17.53亿 | 29.70亿 | | HK 00700 | | | -5.35 乙 | | 建设银行 | 13.00 亿 | 6.10 亿 | 19.10亿 | | HK 00939 | | | +6.89亿 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 6.161Z | 11.59 亿 | 17.76亿 | | HK 09988 | | | -5.43 亿 | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that 3SBio has sold its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707 to Pfizer for a record upfront payment of $1.25 billion and has initiated a Phase III clinical trial for the drug targeting advanced PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [1][2] - The Phase III trial will enroll 420 patients and is expected to start in June 2023, with preliminary results anticipated by July 2026. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival (PFS) and the secondary endpoint is overall survival (OS) [1] - SSGJ-707 has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China, and its combination therapy indication is still in Phase II [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape shows that PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies are becoming a popular choice among pharmaceutical companies, with 3SBio's stock price rising over 9% following the announcement of the deal with Pfizer, leading to a market capitalization exceeding HKD 50 billion [2] - The global sales of the leading PD-1 drug, pembrolizumab (K drug), are projected to be around $25 billion in 2023 and $29 billion in 2024, making it a significant competitor for new entrants like SSGJ-707 [3] - The head-to-head clinical trial results of another PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, Ivosidenib, against pembrolizumab have shown a median PFS of 11.14 months compared to 5.82 months for pembrolizumab, indicating potential advantages for dual antibodies [3] Group 3 - The current treatment guidelines recommend pembrolizumab as a first-line therapy for advanced non-squamous NSCLC, particularly for patients with high PD-L1 expression [4] - The approval process for new drugs requires demonstrating superior efficacy compared to existing treatments, which poses a challenge for both 3SBio and other companies developing similar products [4][5] - The financial implications for companies like 3SBio and Akeso are significant, as they invest heavily in R&D, with Akeso's R&D expenses exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant overseas licensing deal for the PD1/VEGF dual antibody with Pfizer, exceeding market expectations with a transaction scale of over $1.25 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage sales share [7] - The company is expected to show substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues reaching RMB 19.1 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 109.7% [6][8] - The report anticipates a dramatic increase in net profit, forecasting RMB 9.8 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 368.2% [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with core products like Teibiao and Mandi showing robust growth, with Teibiao's sales projected at RMB 5.06 billion in 2024, a 20.4% increase [7] - The report suggests that the company's innovative products and partnerships with various pharmaceutical companies will provide additional revenue growth opportunities [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected operating income for 2025 is RMB 19,102 million, with a gross profit margin of 86.5% [8] - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 is RMB 4.08, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 4.37 [6][8] - The report estimates a target market value of approximately RMB 595 billion, equivalent to about HKD 645 billion, based on the company's stable growth and the high elasticity provided by innovative products [7]

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