Core Viewpoint - Yadea Holdings has reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, marking one of the worst performances in its history, with revenue down 18.8% to 28.236 billion yuan and net profit halved by 51.8% to 1.272 billion yuan [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yadea's revenue for 2024 was 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, while net profit fell to 1.272 billion yuan, a drop of 51.8% compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company's performance in 2024 is described as the worst since its listing, with both revenue and net profit showing negative growth for the first time since 2016 [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Yadea reached a five-year low, with margins decreasing from 18.08% in 2022 to 15.19% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures despite reduced sales [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall market for electric two-wheelers in China saw a total sales volume of 49.5 million units in 2024, down 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting a saturated market with diminishing new demand [2][4] - Yadea's sales volume dropped to 13.0205 million units in 2024, a decrease of 350,000 units from 2023, with electric bicycle sales falling by approximately 21.4% [7][8] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with rivals like Aima Technology and Ninebot gaining market share, while Yadea struggles to maintain its position [1][4] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Yadea has implemented a price reduction strategy to clear existing inventory, with electric bicycles' average selling price dropping from 1,380 yuan in 2023 to 1,347 yuan in 2024 [6][7] - Despite these efforts, the company still faced a 20% decline in sales volume, indicating that price cuts alone were insufficient to stimulate demand [6][7] - Inventory levels remained high at 1.279 billion yuan by the end of 2024, an increase of 33.91% from the previous year, suggesting challenges in inventory management [9]

(30%) (12%) 6% 24% 42% 60% 24/3/27 24/6/7 24/8/18 24/10/29 25/1/9 25/3/22 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 31.13/31.13 总市值/流通(亿港元) 467.52/467.52 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 17.28/9 2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 雅迪控股(01585) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 雅迪控股：2024H2 业绩短期承压，中高端+出海值得期待 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<收入利润双位数增长，优化产品结 构和终端有望持续增厚业绩>>-- 2024-03-20 <<雅迪控股 23H1 点评：拓展价格带 推升销量，盈利压力逐步释放>>-- 2023-08-30 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to several factors, including heightened public concern over battery safety following an incident in Nanjing, new national standards affecting the industry, and a de-stocking cycle among distributors [3] - The company’s electric two-wheeler sales decreased from approximately 16.5 million units in 2023 to about 13.0 million units in 2024 [3] - The company is expected to see a rebound in revenue, with projections of 38.17 billion yuan, 42.29 billion yuan, and 45.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.2%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points, primarily due to price reductions on existing models [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 4.51%, down 3.08 percentage points [4] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, consisting of a final dividend of 0.22 HKD and a special dividend of 0.23 HKD [2] Sales and Product Breakdown - Revenue from electric bicycles and electric scooters in 2024 was 12.24 billion yuan (down 23.2%) and 7.09 billion yuan (down 17.9%) respectively [3] - The average selling price (ASP) for electric bicycles decreased by 2.37% to 1,347 yuan, while the ASP for electric scooters increased by 3.61% to 1,804 yuan [3] Future Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.00 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are expected to be 13.76, 12.15, and 11.11 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, increasing to 160,000 units by 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, 80,000 in 2026, and 160,000 in 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 19.5% by 2027 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong market position and is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities in the second half of the year [7][9] - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance in 2025 and beyond, with net profits projected at 2.673 billion yuan in 2025, 3.248 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.002 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery from 2024 [7][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of 34.763 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.640 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, Net profit of 1.272 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 38.182 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.673 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 44.369 billion yuan, Net profit of 3.248 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 51.370 billion yuan, Net profit of 4.002 billion yuan [7][9] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to sell 13.02 million electric two-wheelers, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, with total revenue from this segment at 19.335 billion yuan, also down 21.4% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to policy changes and high inventory levels [7][9] - The average selling price (ASP) of electric two-wheelers is projected to increase by 3.1% to 2,169 yuan per unit, despite a significant drop in unit profit by 38.8% to 98 yuan per unit due to issues with product pricing [7][9] Industry Outlook - The introduction of new national standards is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies like the one in focus. The company plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into international markets, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand [9][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's performance in 2025 and beyond, suggesting a potential "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on expected growth [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Yadea Holdings is expected to achieve significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with overall performance anticipated to surpass that of 2023. The company is likely to benefit from scale effects and increased sales of mid-to-high-end flagship models, which may lead to greater profit elasticity compared to sales growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance market share concentration among leading companies. Yadea's new models are anticipated to receive national inspection approval around mid-year, allowing for a timely transition to new standards [2]. - Yadea is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with three flagship series: Guan Neng, Mo Deng, and Fei Yue, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2025. The sales proportion of these flagship models is projected to increase significantly [3]. - The company is enhancing its retail capabilities and expanding its distribution network, which is expected to restore profitability in its channels. The global retail summit held in December 2024 is part of this strategy [3]. - Yadea is actively pursuing international expansion, having established research and production bases in Vietnam and Indonesia, and subsidiaries in Germany and the United States. This localization strategy is expected to support the company's growth in overseas markets [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Yadea Holdings reported revenues of 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8%. The net profit margin was 4.5%, a decline of 3.1 percentage points [1][6]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 39 billion yuan, 44.164 billion yuan, and 48.655 billion yuan, respectively, representing growth rates of 38%, 13%, and 10% [6][8]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.85 billion yuan, 3.368 billion yuan, and 3.836 billion yuan, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory with respective growth rates of 124%, 18%, and 14% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 0.92 yuan in 2025, 1.08 yuan in 2026, and 1.23 yuan in 2027 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's performance in 2025 and beyond, suggesting a potential "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on expected growth [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Yadea Holdings is expected to achieve significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with overall performance anticipated to surpass that of 2023. The company is likely to benefit from scale effects and increased sales of mid-to-high-end flagship models, which may lead to greater profit elasticity compared to sales growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance market share concentration among leading companies. Yadea's new models are anticipated to receive national inspection approval around mid-year, allowing for a smooth transition to new standards [2]. - Yadea is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with three flagship series: Guan Neng, Mo Deng, and Fei Yue, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2025. The sales proportion of these flagship models is projected to increase significantly [3]. - The company is enhancing its retail capabilities and expanding its distribution network, which is expected to restore profitability in its channels. The global retail summit held in December 2024 is part of this strategy [3]. - Yadea is actively pursuing international expansion, having established research and production bases in Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as subsidiaries in Germany and the United States. This localization strategy is expected to support the company's growth in overseas markets [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Yadea Holdings reported revenues of 28.236 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion CNY, down 51.8%. The net profit margin was 4.5%, a decline of 3.1 percentage points [1][6]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 39 billion CNY, representing a growth of 38%, and a net profit of 2.85 billion CNY, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 124% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.42 CNY in 2024 to 0.92 CNY in 2025, reflecting the anticipated improvement in profitability [6][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase significantly from 14.53% in 2024 to 24.55% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 18.84 per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 20x for 2025 [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.24 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%, and a net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, down 51.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of CNY 13.82 billion, down 22.0%, and a net profit of CNY 240 million, down 83.6% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to an accelerated inventory clearance strategy [1][2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and market share growth due to the effects of trade-in subsidies and new national standards [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company accelerated inventory clearance, leading to a decline in sales volume to 6.64 million units in the second half, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with an average selling price of CNY 2,082, down 2.3% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 was 1.7%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 4.7 percentage points due to lower selling prices [3]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding into overseas markets, with investments in core components like batteries and controllers. It plans to launch its first mass-produced sodium battery electric bicycle in January 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its production scale in Southeast Asia and deepening its retail network, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam and flagship stores in Thailand and Indonesia [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.56 billion, CNY 40.91 billion, and CNY 46.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of CNY 2.70 billion, CNY 2.93 billion, and CNY 3.38 billion for the same years [8][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 0.87, CNY 0.94, and CNY 1.08 respectively [8].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the trade-in and subsidy policies in 2025 has significantly boosted consumer spending and improved living standards, particularly in the electric two-wheeler industry, with companies like Yadea leading the response to these initiatives [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The new subsidy policies have expanded to include digital products and vehicles, enhancing consumer engagement and driving retail growth in various sectors, with significant increases in sales figures for communication equipment and furniture [2]. - The electric two-wheeler industry has seen a positive response to the trade-in policy, with over 204.4 million electric bicycles exchanged, generating sales of 5.61 billion yuan and benefiting over 200,000 consumers [2][4]. Group 2: Company Response - Yadea has actively participated in the national subsidy program, offering additional discounts to consumers, which has led to a surge in sales, particularly for their stylish and high-quality models [6][9]. - The company has introduced a "national subsidy quick check" feature to help users navigate local policies and store information, enhancing customer experience [9]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Yadea is recognized as a leader in R&D within the industry, focusing on innovative battery technologies and smart manufacturing to drive the transition towards a more sustainable electric vehicle market [11][13]. - The integration of technology, service, and subsidies has created a tangible sense of benefit for consumers, demonstrating how policy can effectively translate into productive outcomes [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The electric vehicle industry is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's dual carbon goals while contributing to economic growth, with Yadea positioned to leverage policy advantages for global competitiveness [13].