证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 雅迪控股(1585.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525010002 邮 箱： dengjianquan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 雅迪控股：发力中高端，三大旗舰系列可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年度业绩公告。2024 年公司实现收入 282.36 亿元 （-18.8%），归母净利润 12.72 亿元（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 18.84 per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 20x for 2025 [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.24 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%, and a net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, down 51.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of CNY 13.82 billion, down 22.0%, and a net profit of CNY 240 million, down 83.6% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to an accelerated inventory clearance strategy [1][2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and market share growth due to the effects of trade-in subsidies and new national standards [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company accelerated inventory clearance, leading to a decline in sales volume to 6.64 million units in the second half, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with an average selling price of CNY 2,082, down 2.3% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 was 1.7%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 4.7 percentage points due to lower selling prices [3]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding into overseas markets, with investments in core components like batteries and controllers. It plans to launch its first mass-produced sodium battery electric bicycle in January 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its production scale in Southeast Asia and deepening its retail network, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam and flagship stores in Thailand and Indonesia [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.56 billion, CNY 40.91 billion, and CNY 46.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of CNY 2.70 billion, CNY 2.93 billion, and CNY 3.38 billion for the same years [8][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 0.87, CNY 0.94, and CNY 1.08 respectively [8].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. 雅迪集團控股有限公司 （股份代號：1585） （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） 截至2024年12月31日止年度 年度業績公告 雅迪集團控股有限公司（「本公司」或「雅迪」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）謹此提呈本公司 及其附屬公司（統稱「本集團」或「我們」）截至2024年12月31日止年度（「報告期」）的經審核 綜合年度業績，連同截至2023年12月31日止年度的比較數字如下： 財務摘要 於報告期內： – 1 – • 與截至2023年12月31日止年度相比，收入減少約18.8%至人民幣28,236.2百萬元。 • 與截至2023年12月31日止年度相比，本公司擁有人應佔利潤減少約51.8%至人民幣 1,272.4百萬元。 • 與截至2023年12月31日止年度相比，每股基本盈利減少約52.3%至人民幣42.2分。 • 本公司擬派2024年末期股息每股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.3 per share, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 12.8 [1][5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face revenue and profit pressure in 2024 due to a product inventory cycle, with total sales of electric scooters and bicycles projected to decrease from 8,210,700 units in the first half of 2023 to 6,382,600 units in the first half of 2024, resulting in a revenue drop of approximately 15.4% [3][9]. - The release of the new "Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specification" is anticipated to boost industry demand in 2025, as consumers who were previously hesitant are expected to convert their intent into purchases [4][10][15]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 278.5 billion in 2024 (down 20%), RMB 342.5 billion in 2025 (up 23%), and RMB 393.9 billion in 2026 (up 15%), with net profits expected to be RMB 13.1 billion (down 50.5%), RMB 25.8 billion (up 97.5%), and RMB 34 billion (up 31.6%) respectively [5][15][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 34,800.7 million in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 16.8%. However, a decline to RMB 27,851.9 million is expected in 2024, representing a 20% decrease [6][19]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 2,640.2 million, with a projected drop to RMB 1,307.9 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 2,583.6 million in 2025 and RMB 3,401.3 million in 2026 [6][19]. Market Dynamics - The new safety standards are expected to enhance the overall safety and performance of electric bicycles, which may lead to increased consumer confidence and demand in the market [10][12]. - The company is well-positioned in the domestic market due to its strong R&D, marketing, and channel management capabilities, while also expanding its overseas business [15].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses a company involved in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, specifically focusing on electric motorcycles and related technologies. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cost Management and Efficiency** The company emphasizes the importance of matching contributions with expenses, indicating that future costs will not pose significant issues. The focus is on improving operational efficiency and managing expenses effectively [1][2][3]. 2. **Product Development and Market Stability** The introduction of new products and technologies is contingent upon a stable market environment. The company plans to make significant adjustments in product design and user experience in the coming year [1][2][3]. 3. **Digital Transformation** The company is investing in digitalizing management systems and marketing strategies, which may impact short-term costs but is expected to yield long-term benefits [1][2][3]. 4. **Youth Engagement and Team Development** The company is focusing on cultivating a younger workforce, which may incur initial costs but is aimed at enhancing digital operations in the future [1][2][3]. 5. **Research and Development Adjustments** The company has dissolved a research institute focused on electric control systems, indicating a shift in R&D strategy. Future adjustments in R&D and management expenses are anticipated [1][2][3]. 6. **High-End Product Strategy** The company clarifies its definition of "high-end" products, which includes a phased approach rather than a complete shift to premium pricing. Multiple product series are being developed to cater to different market segments [2][3][4]. 7. **Policy Impact on Market Dynamics** The company discusses the impact of government policies on the electric vehicle market, particularly regarding the replacement of old vehicles. There is optimism about future policies enhancing market conditions [5][6][7]. 8. **Inventory Management and Market Readiness** Concerns about inventory disruptions due to regulatory changes are addressed. The company believes that upcoming policies will lead to a smoother transition compared to previous years [7][8][9]. 9. **Sales and Market Share Goals** The company aims to achieve significant sales targets, with projections of reaching 1.6 million units sold in the upcoming year. There is a focus on quality growth rather than just volume [10][11][12]. 10. **Product Differentiation and Innovation** The company is committed to enhancing product quality and user experience, with plans to introduce innovative products that meet new regulatory standards. This includes reducing battery weight while maintaining performance [18][19]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company acknowledges the challenges faced in the past years due to regulatory changes and market dynamics, emphasizing the need for a unified strategic approach moving forward [19]. - There is a recognition of the importance of maintaining a balance between market share growth and profitability, with a focus on sustainable practices [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and strategic directions outlined in the conference call, highlighting the company's focus on efficiency, product development, and market adaptation in the electric vehicle sector.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yadea Holdings (01585 HK) with a target price of HK$17 14 [1] Core Views - Yadea is the leader in the electric two wheeler industry with over 16 million units sold in 2023 and revenue of RMB34 8 billion [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies in the short term while long term demand still has room for growth both domestically and overseas [2] - Yadea has significant competitive advantages and leading overseas expansion with short term performance expected to recover and long term leadership likely to expand [2] - The company is forecasted to achieve net profit growth of -0 1% 21 7% and 15 2% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Company Overview - Yadea is a global leader in electric two wheelers with over 20 years of experience in the industry [41] - The company has eight R&D and production bases with an annual production capacity exceeding 20 million units and over 40 000 exclusive retail stores globally [41] - Revenue and net profit have grown steadily with a CAGR of 22 9% and 25 5% respectively from 2016 to 2023 [42] Industry Analysis - Short term growth is driven by new regulations and subsidies with the 2024 revision of the "New National Standard" expected to accelerate replacement demand [2][50] - Long term growth potential exists in both domestic C end and B end markets while overseas markets remain a blue ocean opportunity [2][57] - The industry is expected to see further consolidation with stricter regulations and higher entry barriers [63] Competitive Advantages - Yadea has leading advantages in cost supply chain channels and brand positioning [2] - The company has established scale advantages with production capacity significantly higher than competitors [66] - Yadea has made strategic upstream investments in key components like batteries and motors [67][72] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit grew to RMB34 76 billion and RMB2 64 billion respectively in 2023 [42] - 2024H1 revenue declined 15 4% YoY to RMB14 41 billion due to industry slowdown and dealer inventory adjustments [82] - Gross margin improved to 18 0% in 2024H1 driven by product mix optimization and higher battery prices [88] Outlook and Forecast - Yadea is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies with performance recovery anticipated in 2024H2 [90] - The company is forecasted to achieve revenue of RMB40 38 billion and RMB46 21 billion in 2025 and 2026 respectively [94] - Net profit is projected to grow 21 7% and 15 2% in 2025 and 2026 driven by market share gains and overseas expansion [93]

Revenue and Sales Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 14,413.8 million, a decrease of 15.4% compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties and temporary weak market demand[8] - Total sales of electric two-wheelers decreased from 8,210,700 units in the first half of 2023 to 6,382,600 units in the first half of 2024, with a gradual recovery in sales observed in May and June 2024[8] - Sales of electric bicycles accounted for 43.3% of total revenue, generating RMB 6,239.4 million, while electric scooters contributed 24.6% with RMB 3,546.6 million in revenue[10] - Battery and charger sales contributed 28.2% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 4,065.3 million, with battery sales alone reaching RMB 6,714.6 million[10] - Total segment revenue for electric two-wheelers and related accessories decreased from RMB 17,041.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 14,413.8 million in H1 2024, a decline of 15.4%[12] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 14,413.8 million, a decrease of 15.4% compared to RMB 17,041.1 million in the same period of 2023[53] - Revenue from electric bicycles decreased to RMB 6,239,374 thousand in H1 2024 from RMB 7,639,514 thousand in H1 2023, a decline of 18.3%[71] - Revenue from electric scooters decreased to RMB 3,546,576 thousand in H1 2024 from RMB 4,577,196 thousand in H1 2023, a decline of 22.5%[71] - Revenue from batteries and chargers decreased to RMB 4,065,296 thousand in H1 2024 from RMB 4,498,171 thousand in H1 2023, a decline of 9.6%[71] - Revenue from electric two-wheeler parts increased to RMB 562,556 thousand in H1 2024 from RMB 326,211 thousand in H1 2023, an increase of 72.5%[71] - Total segment revenue for electric two-wheelers and related accessories was RMB 14,205,169 thousand in H1 2024, down from RMB 16,988,740 thousand in H1 2023[74] - Total segment revenue for batteries and electric drives was RMB 2,526,456 thousand in H1 2024, up from RMB 1,928,281 thousand in H1 2023[74] Gross Profit and Margin - Gross margin improved from 16.9% in the first half of 2023 to 18.0% in the first half of 2024, driven by an optimized product mix and premium pricing for battery and electric drive products[8] - Gross profit decreased by 9.8% from RMB 2,874.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 2,593.8 million in H1 2024, with gross margin improving slightly from 16.9% to 18.0% due to product mix optimization and price increases for batteries and electric drive products[14] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,593.8 million, down 9.8% from RMB 2,874.1 million in the first half of 2023[53] - Gross profit for electric two-wheelers and related accessories was RMB 2,264,028 thousand in H1 2024, down from RMB 2,687,793 thousand in H1 2023[74] - Gross profit for batteries and electric drives was RMB 374,470 thousand in H1 2024, up from RMB 192,883 thousand in H1 2023[74] Net Profit and Earnings - Net profit decreased by 12.9% from RMB 1,186.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,033.9 million in H1 2024[16] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners for the first half of 2024 was RMB 1,033.9 million, a decrease of 12.9% compared to RMB 1,187.6 million in the same period of 2023[53] - Basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were RMB 34.5 cents, down from RMB 39.9 cents in the first half of 2023[53] - Net profit attributable to owners of the company was RMB 1,033,866 thousand in H1 2024, down from RMB 1,187,643 thousand in H1 2023[82] - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 34.5 cents in H1 2024 from RMB 39.9 cents in H1 2023[82] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners decreased to RMB 1,033,866 thousand in 2024 from RMB 1,187,643 thousand in 2023, representing a decline[85] - Diluted earnings per share decreased to 34.4 RMB cents per share in 2024 from 39.5 RMB cents per share in 2023[85] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 10.7% from RMB 7,913.8 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 7,067.6 million as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to net cash outflows from operating and investing activities[17] - Operating cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was a net outflow of RMB 696.503 million, compared to a net inflow of RMB 2.5728 billion in the same period in 2023[64] - Net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1.0867 billion, primarily due to the purchase of property, plant, and equipment amounting to RMB 815.315 million[64] - Net cash from financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 925.445 million, driven by proceeds from borrowings of RMB 1.3095 billion[64] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by RMB 857.78 million during the six months ended June 30, 2024, ending at RMB 7.0676 billion[64] - The company paid dividends of RMB 1.3161 billion during the six months ended June 30, 2024[61] - The company repurchased shares worth RMB 13.329 million under the share award plan during the six months ended June 30, 2024[61] - The company acquired a subsidiary, resulting in a payment of RMB 209.482 million, net of cash acquired, during the six months ended June 30, 2024[64] - Interest income from bank deposits for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 117.531 million[64] - The company repaid borrowings of RMB 268.095 million during the six months ended June 30, 2024[64] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 7,067,644 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 7,913,807 thousand as of December 31, 2023[105] Inventory and Asset Management - Inventory increased by 73.0% from RMB 955.4 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 1,652.6 million as of June 30, 2024, driven by increased battery inventory reserves and rising lead prices[20] - Total inventory as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,652,566 thousand, with raw materials accounting for RMB 950,156 thousand[87] - Accounts receivable increased to RMB 798,553 thousand in 2024 from RMB 545,941 thousand in 2023, with 94.2% of receivables aged within six months[88][89] - Total accounts payable and notes payable decreased to RMB 11,951,945 thousand in 2024 from RMB 13,672,198 thousand in 2023[90] - The company's trade and other receivables increased to RMB 798,553 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 545,941 thousand as of December 31, 2023[106] - The company's trade and other payables decreased to RMB 11,951,945 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 13,672,198 thousand as of December 31, 2023[108] Shareholder Equity and Share-Based Compensation - The company's total issued shares as of June 30, 2024, are 3,063,800,000 shares[26][28] - Dong Jingui holds 1,399,398,084 shares through Dawei Investment Limited, representing a significant portion of the company's equity[26] - Qian Jinghong holds 515,370,859 shares through Fangyuan Investment Limited, contributing to the company's equity structure[26] - The company granted 33,550,000 share options to 263 employees on January 17, 2023, under the 2016 Share Option Plan[35] - The share options granted have a vesting schedule tied to the company's financial performance, with 30% vesting after the 2023 annual results, 30% after the 2024 annual results, and 40% after the 2025 annual results[35] - The performance targets for the share options require a 20% growth in consolidated revenue and net profit for 2023, 44% for 2024, and 73% for 2025, compared to the 2022 baseline[35] - The company's five highest-paid individuals (excluding directors and senior management) each earned RMB 1,020,000 in 2023[31] - The company's share price at the time of the option grant on January 17, 2023, was HKD 16.14 per share[35] - The company's 2016 Share Option Plan was approved by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 18, 2016, allowing the issuance of shares upon the exercise of options[35] - The company has established a performance evaluation system for employees to determine the vesting of share options based on individual performance targets[36] - The maximum number of shares available for grant under the 2016 Share Option Plan was 266,450,000 shares as of January 1, 2024[37] - The 2016 Share Option Plan terminated on June 17, 2024, and no further options can be granted under this plan after termination[37] - The 2024 Share Option Plan was conditionally approved by shareholders on June 17, 2024, with a maximum of 153,190,000 shares available for grant, representing 5% of the total issued shares as of the approval date[37] - No options were granted, exercised, canceled, lapsed, or forfeited under the 2024 Share Option Plan from its adoption date to June 30, 2024[39] - The total number of options available for grant under the 2024 Share Option Plan as of June 30, 2024, was 153,190,000[39] - The First Share Award Plan was terminated on June 17, 2024, and no further awards can be granted under this plan after termination[40] - The second and third share incentive plans were adopted on June 6, 2019, and will terminate on June 17, 2024, after which no further awards can be granted under these plans[41] - The fourth share incentive plan was adopted on July 23, 2019, and was amended on June 17, 2024, to allow the purchase of existing shares at market price for employee awards[42] - As of January 1, 2024, 70,678,139 shares were available for issuance under the share incentive plans, with 4,764,539 shares under the first plan (0.16% of issued share capital) and 65,913,600 shares under the fourth plan (2.15% of issued share capital)[43] - As of June 30, 2024, 59,642,339 shares were available for issuance under the share incentive plans, with 3,614,539 shares under the first plan (0.12% of issued share capital) and 56,027,800 shares under the fourth plan (1.83% of issued share capital)[44] - The company repurchased 1,112,000 shares under the share award plan in 2024, compared to none in 2023[94] - Outstanding restricted share units decreased to 17,338,000 in 2024 from 31,863,000 in 2023, with a weighted average fair value of RMB 5.68 per unit[96] - The company's share-based payment expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB -46,847 thousand, compared to RMB 92,448 thousand in the same period in 2023, primarily due to the reversal of RMB 62,638 thousand in share-based compensation expenses as the performance conditions for the awards were not expected to be met[100] Regulatory and Market Challenges - The company remains the market leader in the electric two-wheeler industry by market share, despite regulatory changes and market challenges[8] - New regulations introduced in May 2024 focused on battery design and manufacturing, including aspects like overcharging, over-discharging, and thermal runaway, which temporarily disrupted product development[8] Research and Development and Overseas Expansion - The company plans to continue investing in R&D for new technologies in core components and expand its overseas market presence to promote the "Yadea" brand globally[8] - The net proceeds from the share placement in 2022 amounted to approximately HKD 857.6 million (equivalent to RMB 727.8 million), intended for overseas business expansion through R&D centers, factories, distribution networks, and potential acquisitions[47][48] - The company expects to fully utilize the net proceeds from the 2022 share placement by December 31, 2025[49] Subsidiary Acquisitions and Investments - The company's subsidiary acquired 100% equity of Wuxi Lingbo Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of approximately RMB 351.5 million on April 17, 2024[47] - The company's subsidiary, Zhejiang Huayu Sodium Battery New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., acquired 100% equity of Wuxi Lingbo Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of RMB 351,500 thousand on April 17, 2024[102] - The identifiable net assets acquired from Lingbo amounted to RMB 304,394 thousand, including intangible assets of RMB 114,833 thousand, primarily consisting of customer relationships valued at RMB 92,900 thousand and patents valued at RMB 20,820 thousand[103] Financial Assets and Liabilities - The fair value of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss decreased by 6.3% from RMB 2,789.8 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 2,613.9 million as of June 30, 2024, due to redemptions of wealth management products and structured deposits[18] - The company's financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss decreased to RMB 2,613,941 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 2,789,800 thousand as of December 31, 2023[104] - The company's financial liabilities measured at amortized cost increased to RMB 16,672,418 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 16,202,059 thousand as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to an increase in borrowings to RMB 1,274,770 thousand from RMB 267,257 thousand[108] - The company's total financial assets measured at fair value as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 2,626,927 thousand, including RMB 2,439,273 thousand in wealth management products and structured deposits and RMB 82,248 thousand in unlisted equity investments[110][111] Capital Expenditures and Commitments - The company acquired property, plant, and equipment worth RMB 679,077 thousand in 2024, a significant increase from RMB 363,763 thousand in 2023[86] - The company's capital commitments for property, plant, and equipment as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 758,645 thousand, a decrease from RMB 815,006 thousand as of December 31, 2023[101] Employee Costs and Compensation - Total employee costs decreased from RMB 1,426.0 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,074.8 million in H1 2024, with the number of employees decreasing from 12,338 to 12,008[22] - Employee share-based compensation expenses amounted to RMB 92.448 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[61] Related Party Transactions - No significant related party transactions or balances were reported for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and June 30, 2023, as well as for the periods ended June 30, 2024, and December 31, 2023[117] Asset and Liability Overview - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 25,707.6 million, a slight increase from RMB 25,660.1 million as of December 31, 2023[58] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 17,572.7 million, compared to RMB 17,258.9 million as of December 31, 2023[60] - The company's equity attributable to owners as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 8,134.7 million, down from RMB 8,401.0 million as of December 31, 2023[60] - The asset-liability ratio increased from 9.9% as of December 31, 2023, to 22.3% as of June 30, 2024, mainly due to increased borrowings[21] - The company's assets at the beginning of the period were RMB 80,924 thousand, an increase from RMB 66,444 thousand in the same period last year[116] - Additions to assets during the period amounted to RMB 1,677 thousand, slightly lower than the RMB 1,786 thousand added in the previous year[116] - The company's assets at the end of the

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in sales in the short term but is expected to have a strong long-term development potential. The revenue for the first half of 2024 was 14.414 billion yuan, down 15.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.034 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year. The electric two-wheeler segment saw a revenue drop of 19.9% year-on-year, while the components segment experienced a revenue increase of 72.5% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.17%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 18.00%, up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 4.20%, the management expense ratio was 2.91%, and the financial expense ratio was -0.84% [4]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024 is 33.069 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, with net profits expected to be 2.550 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% [5][6]. Business Segments - The electric two-wheeler segment is projected to generate sales of 22.153 billion yuan in 2024, down 9.9% year-on-year, while the battery and charger segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 5.0% year-on-year [6]. - The components segment is forecasted to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 1.203 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.0% year-on-year [6]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14-15 times for 2024, with a reasonable value range estimated between 11.47 and 12.29 yuan, which translates to 12.62 to 13.52 Hong Kong dollars [4][5]. - The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2.550 billion, 3.264 billion, and 3.792 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -3.4%, +28.0%, and +16.2% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) with a target price of HKD 13, while the current price is HKD 10.8 [1]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 (24H1) was HKD 14.41 billion, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.03 billion, down 13.0% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in sales is attributed to stricter industry regulations and weakened demand, leading to inventory destocking among distributors, resulting in a 22% year-on-year drop in sales volume to 6.38 million units [1]. - Despite the sales decline, the gross profit margin improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18%, driven by a shift towards higher-end products [1]. - The report anticipates that as regulatory policies stabilize, leading companies like Yadea will benefit from industry consolidation and improved sales performance [1]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in sales, with net profit forecasts adjusted to HKD 2.52 billion, HKD 3.02 billion, and HKD 3.60 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is HKD 31.16 billion, reflecting a 10% decrease, while the net profit is projected at HKD 2.52 billion, a 5% decrease [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 0.86, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.2 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach HKD 27.33 billion by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.7% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance for the first half of 2024 is generally in line with expectations, with improvements in gross margin on a sequential and year-over-year basis [3][4] - The company faced a decline in sales volume due to factors such as national inspections and inventory destocking by distributors, leading to a decrease in electric bicycle and scooter sales [3] - Despite the sales decline, the average revenue per unit improved, indicating a positive trend in pricing [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2024, Yadea achieved total revenue of 14.414 billion yuan, down 15.42% year-over-year and 18.67% sequentially [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.034 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.88% year-over-year and 28.86% sequentially [3] - The gross margin for H1 2024 improved to 18.00%, up 1.13 percentage points year-over-year and 1.00 percentage point sequentially [3] Sales Performance - Electric bicycle sales reached 4.48 million units, down 19.07% year-over-year and 25.56% sequentially [3] - Electric scooter sales totaled 1.90 million units, down 28.89% year-over-year and 16.97% sequentially [3] - The average revenue per unit for bicycles was 1,533 yuan, up 3.05% year-over-year and 3.00% sequentially [3] Cost and Expenses - The revenue from battery and charger business in H1 2024 was 4.065 billion yuan, down 9.62% year-over-year and 14.44% sequentially [3] - The overall expense ratio slightly decreased, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 4.20%, 2.92%, 3.41%, and 0.14% respectively [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been revised downwards, with net profits projected at 2.64 billion, 3.44 billion, and 4.00 billion yuan respectively [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 14, 11, and 9 times [4]