出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 业绩多年增长放缓后双双掉头向下 毛利率创下近五年来新低 尽管九号、小牛曾经为传统两轮电动车赛道打响高端化、智能化的新一轮竞争，但如今市场已经走向存量竞争阶段，增 量消费需求减弱，商品明显同质化。2024年电动两轮车国内总销量为4950万台，同比下滑11.6%，国内电动两轮车保有量 超4.2亿辆，渗透率几近饱和，新增需求减少而更多为替换需求。 实际上，上市以来到2020年，雅迪控股的业绩表现都相对稳健，营收、净利润均保持了较为持续的增长，而在2020年还 曾实现了89.64%、61.76%的高速增长。然而在这之后，从图中可以看出，在2024年营收净利润双双负增长之前，雅迪控 股的业绩增速已经连续多年明显放缓。 作者：坤 近日，传统两轮电动车厂商雅迪控股发布2024年财报，营收、净利润表现双双大幅下滑。2024年实现营业收入282.36亿 元，同比减少18.8%，而归母净利润正如之前的盈利预警所示，12.72亿元的净利润相比去年同期"腰斩"51.8%。需要注意 的是，这是雅迪控股自披露业绩以来除2016年以外为数不多的出现营收下滑、更是唯一一次出现净利润规模的缩水，过 去一年的业绩表 ...

(30%) (12%) 6% 24% 42% 60% 24/3/27 24/6/7 24/8/18 24/10/29 25/1/9 25/3/22 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 31.13/31.13 总市值/流通(亿港元) 467.52/467.52 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 17.28/9 2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 雅迪控股(01585) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 雅迪控股：2024H2 业绩短期承压，中高端+出海值得期待 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<收入利润双位数增长，优化产品结 构和终端有望持续增厚业绩>>-- 2024-03-20 <<雅迪控股 23H1 点评：拓展价格带 推升销量，盈利压力逐步释放>>-- 2023-08-30 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to several factors, including heightened public concern over battery safety following an incident in Nanjing, new national standards affecting the industry, and a de-stocking cycle among distributors [3] - The company’s electric two-wheeler sales decreased from approximately 16.5 million units in 2023 to about 13.0 million units in 2024 [3] - The company is expected to see a rebound in revenue, with projections of 38.17 billion yuan, 42.29 billion yuan, and 45.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.2%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points, primarily due to price reductions on existing models [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 4.51%, down 3.08 percentage points [4] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, consisting of a final dividend of 0.22 HKD and a special dividend of 0.23 HKD [2] Sales and Product Breakdown - Revenue from electric bicycles and electric scooters in 2024 was 12.24 billion yuan (down 23.2%) and 7.09 billion yuan (down 17.9%) respectively [3] - The average selling price (ASP) for electric bicycles decreased by 2.37% to 1,347 yuan, while the ASP for electric scooters increased by 3.61% to 1,804 yuan [3] Future Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.00 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are expected to be 13.76, 12.15, and 11.11 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, increasing to 160,000 units by 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, 80,000 in 2026, and 160,000 in 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 19.5% by 2027 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong market position and is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities in the second half of the year [7][9] - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance in 2025 and beyond, with net profits projected at 2.673 billion yuan in 2025, 3.248 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.002 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery from 2024 [7][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue of 34.763 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.640 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 28.236 billion yuan, Net profit of 1.272 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 38.182 billion yuan, Net profit of 2.673 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 44.369 billion yuan, Net profit of 3.248 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 51.370 billion yuan, Net profit of 4.002 billion yuan [7][9] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to sell 13.02 million electric two-wheelers, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, with total revenue from this segment at 19.335 billion yuan, also down 21.4% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to policy changes and high inventory levels [7][9] - The average selling price (ASP) of electric two-wheelers is projected to increase by 3.1% to 2,169 yuan per unit, despite a significant drop in unit profit by 38.8% to 98 yuan per unit due to issues with product pricing [7][9] Industry Outlook - The introduction of new national standards is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies like the one in focus. The company plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into international markets, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand [9][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's performance in 2025 and beyond, suggesting a potential "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on expected growth [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Yadea Holdings is expected to achieve significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with overall performance anticipated to surpass that of 2023. The company is likely to benefit from scale effects and increased sales of mid-to-high-end flagship models, which may lead to greater profit elasticity compared to sales growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance market share concentration among leading companies. Yadea's new models are anticipated to receive national inspection approval around mid-year, allowing for a timely transition to new standards [2]. - Yadea is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with three flagship series: Guan Neng, Mo Deng, and Fei Yue, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2025. The sales proportion of these flagship models is projected to increase significantly [3]. - The company is enhancing its retail capabilities and expanding its distribution network, which is expected to restore profitability in its channels. The global retail summit held in December 2024 is part of this strategy [3]. - Yadea is actively pursuing international expansion, having established research and production bases in Vietnam and Indonesia, and subsidiaries in Germany and the United States. This localization strategy is expected to support the company's growth in overseas markets [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Yadea Holdings reported revenues of 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8%. The net profit margin was 4.5%, a decline of 3.1 percentage points [1][6]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 39 billion yuan, 44.164 billion yuan, and 48.655 billion yuan, respectively, representing growth rates of 38%, 13%, and 10% [6][8]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.85 billion yuan, 3.368 billion yuan, and 3.836 billion yuan, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory with respective growth rates of 124%, 18%, and 14% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 0.92 yuan in 2025, 1.08 yuan in 2026, and 1.23 yuan in 2027 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's performance in 2025 and beyond, suggesting a potential "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on expected growth [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Yadea Holdings is expected to achieve significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with overall performance anticipated to surpass that of 2023. The company is likely to benefit from scale effects and increased sales of mid-to-high-end flagship models, which may lead to greater profit elasticity compared to sales growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance market share concentration among leading companies. Yadea's new models are anticipated to receive national inspection approval around mid-year, allowing for a smooth transition to new standards [2]. - Yadea is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with three flagship series: Guan Neng, Mo Deng, and Fei Yue, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2025. The sales proportion of these flagship models is projected to increase significantly [3]. - The company is enhancing its retail capabilities and expanding its distribution network, which is expected to restore profitability in its channels. The global retail summit held in December 2024 is part of this strategy [3]. - Yadea is actively pursuing international expansion, having established research and production bases in Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as subsidiaries in Germany and the United States. This localization strategy is expected to support the company's growth in overseas markets [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Yadea Holdings reported revenues of 28.236 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion CNY, down 51.8%. The net profit margin was 4.5%, a decline of 3.1 percentage points [1][6]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 39 billion CNY, representing a growth of 38%, and a net profit of 2.85 billion CNY, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 124% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.42 CNY in 2024 to 0.92 CNY in 2025, reflecting the anticipated improvement in profitability [6][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase significantly from 14.53% in 2024 to 24.55% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 18.84 per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 20x for 2025 [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.24 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%, and a net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, down 51.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of CNY 13.82 billion, down 22.0%, and a net profit of CNY 240 million, down 83.6% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to an accelerated inventory clearance strategy [1][2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and market share growth due to the effects of trade-in subsidies and new national standards [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company accelerated inventory clearance, leading to a decline in sales volume to 6.64 million units in the second half, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with an average selling price of CNY 2,082, down 2.3% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 was 1.7%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 4.7 percentage points due to lower selling prices [3]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding into overseas markets, with investments in core components like batteries and controllers. It plans to launch its first mass-produced sodium battery electric bicycle in January 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its production scale in Southeast Asia and deepening its retail network, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam and flagship stores in Thailand and Indonesia [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.56 billion, CNY 40.91 billion, and CNY 46.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of CNY 2.70 billion, CNY 2.93 billion, and CNY 3.38 billion for the same years [8][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 0.87, CNY 0.94, and CNY 1.08 respectively [8].

Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by approximately 18.8% to RMB 28,236.2 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2023[3] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by approximately 51.8% to RMB 1,272.4 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2023[3] - Basic earnings per share decreased by approximately 52.3% to RMB 42.2 cents compared to the year ended December 31, 2023[3] - Gross profit decreased to RMB 4,288.98 million from RMB 5,885.24 million, reflecting a decline in gross margin[4] - Operating profit decreased to RMB 1,665.30 million from RMB 3,132.08 million[4] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 28,236,246 thousand, a decrease of 18.9% from RMB 34,762,757 thousand in 2023[20] - Other income for the year was RMB 593,817 thousand, down 28.2% from RMB 826,208 thousand in 2023[28] - The company reported a net loss from foreign exchange of RMB 37,869 thousand compared to a gain of RMB 27,534 thousand in 2023[28] - Total expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased to RMB 27,213,872,000 from RMB 32,610,447,000 in 2023, representing a reduction of approximately 16.5%[30] - The company's profit attributable to owners for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 1,272,374,000, down from RMB 2,640,158,000 in 2023, indicating a decline of about 51.8%[36] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 42.2, compared to RMB 88.5 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 52.3%[36] - The total tax expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 311,021,000, down from RMB 379,794,000 in 2023, a reduction of about 18.1%[33] - The company reported a net profit for the year decreased by approximately 51.8% from RMB 2,640.2 million in 2023 to RMB 1,272.4 million in 2024[69] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from electric bicycles was RMB 12,244,215 thousand, down 23.5% from RMB 15,952,107 thousand in 2023[20] - Revenue from batteries and chargers decreased to RMB 7,995,475 thousand, a decline of 13.5% from RMB 9,249,600 thousand in 2023[20] - The gross profit for the electric two-wheeler and related parts segment was RMB 3,747,306 thousand, compared to RMB 5,264,580 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 29%[25] - The total segment revenue for electric two-wheelers and related parts was RMB 27,726,357 thousand, while the total segment revenue for battery and electric drive was RMB 5,009,952 thousand[25] - Sales volume of electric scooters decreased by about 20.7% from approximately 4,960,000 units in 2023 to about 3,931,000 units in 2024, while electric bicycles decreased by about 21.4% from approximately 11,561,000 units to about 9,089,000 units[57] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to RMB 24,618.89 million from RMB 25,660.10 million[9] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 15,860.82 million from RMB 17,258.89 million[9] - The company's inventory as of December 31, 2024, increased to RMB 1,279,385,000 from RMB 955,438,000 in 2023, representing an increase of approximately 33.9%[39] - Accounts receivable decreased to RMB 477,940,000 in 2024 from RMB 554,702,000 in 2023, a decline of about 13.8%[41] - The company's total financial assets at fair value through profit or loss decreased to RMB 2,471,164,000 in 2024 from RMB 2,789,800,000 in 2023, a decrease of approximately 11.4%[42] - The total amount of accounts payable decreased to RMB 11,871,433,000 in 2024 from RMB 13,672,198,000 in 2023, indicating a decline of about 13.2%[44] - The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 16.4% as of December 31, 2024, compared to 9.9% as of December 31, 2023[81] Dividends and Shareholder Information - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.22 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.23 per share for 2024[3] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 22.0 per share for 2024, down from HKD 48.0 per share in 2023, totaling approximately RMB 1,266,974,000[34] - The company has proposed a final dividend of HK$0.22 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to HK$0.48 for the year ending December 31, 2023, and a special dividend of HK$0.23 per share, which was not declared in the previous year[101] - The annual general meeting is scheduled for June 17, 2025, with a record date for shareholders on June 27, 2025[102] - The company will suspend the registration of shareholders from June 12 to June 17, 2025, to determine eligibility for voting at the annual general meeting[104] - The company will also suspend the registration of shareholders from June 24 to June 27, 2025, to determine eligibility for receiving the proposed dividends[104] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee, consisting of four independent non-executive directors and one non-executive director, has reviewed the annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024[105] - The company has fully complied with the corporate governance code throughout the year ending December 31, 2024[99] - The company has adopted the standard code for securities trading by directors and confirmed compliance for the entire year ending December 31, 2024[100] - There were no significant subsequent events related to the group's business or financial performance from the end of the reporting period until the announcement date[97] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on technological innovation, investing in R&D for core components like batteries and electronic control systems, and plans to launch a sodium-ion battery-powered electric bicycle in early 2025[51] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new factories in Indonesia and Vietnam, and opening flagship stores in Thailand and Indonesia[52] - The company anticipates that the implementation of new national standards for electric two-wheelers will stabilize the industry and drive new growth in 2025[53] - The company aims to enhance marketing efforts through digital platforms and social media to connect with younger consumers, appointing Wang Hedi as its global brand ambassador[53] Acquisitions and Investments - The company acquired 100% equity of Wuxi Lingbo Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of RMB 351,500,000, with RMB 24,279,000 classified as contingent payment[45] - The net identifiable assets acquired from Lingbo amounted to RMB 304,394,000, with goodwill recognized at RMB 22,827,000, bringing the total acquisition value to RMB 327,221,000[47][48] - The cash outflow for the acquisition, net of cash acquired, was RMB 185,247,000[48] - The company completed the acquisition of Wuxi Lingbo Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of approximately RMB 351.5 million on April 17, 2024[88] - The company did not conduct any significant investments, acquisitions, or disposals of subsidiaries and associates during the reporting period[89] Other Financial Information - Cash and cash equivalents remained relatively stable at RMB 7,868.88 million compared to RMB 7,913.81 million[8] - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were approximately RMB 7,868.9 million, a decrease of about 0.6% from RMB 7,913.8 million in 2023[71] - The total employee cost for 2024 was RMB 2,355.6 million, a decrease of approximately 13.0% from RMB 2,707.6 million in 2023, mainly due to reduced employee bonuses and a decrease in headcount[84] - The company has incurred approximately RMB 5,020,000 in post-merger service expenses, which have been deducted from general and administrative expenses[45] - Financial expenses decreased by approximately 18.7% from RMB 44.2 million in 2023 to RMB 36.0 million in 2024, mainly due to lower bank interest rates[67] - The total value of financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss decreased by approximately 11.4% from RMB 2,789.8 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 2,471.2 million as of December 31, 2024[77] - The breakdown of financial assets at fair value as of December 31, 2024, includes RMB 2,299.9 million in wealth management products and structured deposits, RMB 67.5 million in listed equity investments, RMB 82.2 million in unlisted equity investments, RMB 6.3 million in bond investments, and RMB 15.3 million in other financial assets[79] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had pledged assets amounting to RMB 3,599.3 million as collateral for notes payable, down from RMB 4,118.6 million in 2023[86] - The company had no significant contingent liabilities or guarantees as of December 31, 2024[85] - The annual results announcement will be published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and the company's website[108]