Market Overview - On October 23, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.72%, closing at 25,967.98 points, with a net inflow of HKD 5.345 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading on the same day was HKD 120.193 billion, with a net buy of HKD 5.345 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 75.581 billion, with a net buy of HKD 4.770 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading recorded a transaction amount of HKD 44.612 billion, with a net buy of HKD 0.575 billion [1] Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W had the highest transaction amount at HKD 49.75 billion, followed by Pop Mart and SMIC with HKD 46.66 billion and HKD 35.22 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net buy amounts, Pop Mart led with a net buy of HKD 5.38 billion, despite its closing price dropping by 9.36% [1] - The stock with the highest net sell amount was Hua Hong Semiconductor, with a net sell of HKD 3.56 billion, and its closing price decreased by 4.61% [1] Shenzhen Stock Exchange Active Stocks - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W also topped the transaction amount at HKD 32.77 billion, followed by SMIC and Pop Mart with HKD 25.85 billion and HKD 23.60 billion respectively [2] - The stock with the highest net buy was Meituan-W, with a net buy of HKD 0.487 billion, and it closed up by 4.06% [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor again had the highest net sell amount at HKD 6.59 billion, with a closing price drop of 4.61% [2]

Market Overview - On October 23, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.72%, with total southbound trading amounting to HKD 120.19 billion, including buy transactions of HKD 62.77 billion and sell transactions of HKD 57.42 billion, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 5.34 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading amount of HKD 44.61 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 22.59 billion and sell transactions of HKD 22.02 billion, leading to a net buying amount of HKD 0.57 billion [1] - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total trading amount of HKD 75.58 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 40.18 billion and sell transactions of HKD 35.40 billion, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 4.77 billion [1] Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock by southbound funds was Alibaba-W, with a total trading amount of HKD 82.52 billion, followed by Pop Mart and SMIC with trading amounts of HKD 70.27 billion and HKD 61.07 billion, respectively [1] - In terms of net buying, China National Offshore Oil Corporation led with a net buying amount of HKD 9.80 billion, with a closing price increase of 2.15%. Pop Mart and Meituan-W followed with net buying amounts of HKD 7.93 billion and HKD 5.24 billion, respectively [1] Net Selling Stocks - The stock with the highest net selling amount was Hua Hong Semiconductor, with a net selling of HKD 10.14 billion and a closing price decrease of 4.61%. Other notable net selling stocks included Innovent Biologics and Xiaomi Group-W, with net selling amounts of HKD 1.40 billion and HKD 0.57 billion, respectively [1] Continuous Net Buying - Two stocks experienced continuous net buying from southbound funds for more than three days: SMIC and Pop Mart, with net buying days of three each. Pop Mart had the highest net buying amount during this period at HKD 21.54 billion, followed by SMIC with HKD 11.96 billion [2]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical aims to develop cancer treatment drugs, with a total deal value of $11.4 billion, marking the highest record for a biopharmaceutical licensing deal from China [2][4] - The partnership focuses on two late-stage therapies and one early-stage project, leveraging Innovent's innovative immune-oncology and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapies [2][5] Group 1: Deal Structure and Strategic Importance - The deal involves a co-development model where both companies will share development costs and commercial rights, with a 40/60 cost-sharing ratio for IBI363 [9] - Takeda's leadership sees this collaboration as a way to enhance its oncology pipeline, balancing developments in hematologic and solid tumors [4][22] - Takeda has made significant investments in China over the past three years, with disclosed transaction amounts exceeding 100 billion RMB [4][23] Group 2: Product Details and Clinical Status - IBI363 is a dual-antibody product that targets PD-1/PD-L1 pathways and activates IL-2 pathways, showing promise in treating lung and colorectal cancers [5][8] - IBI343, an ADC, has demonstrated significant efficacy against advanced gastric cancer and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [5][8] - Both products have entered Phase III clinical trials, indicating advanced stages of development [8] Group 3: Takeda's Global Strategy and Market Focus - Takeda's CEO, Christophe Weber, emphasizes the importance of bringing Chinese innovations to the global market, aligning with the company's "Takuvi China" strategy to make China its second-largest market by 2030 [15][22] - The company has shifted focus to oncology, neuroscience, and gastrointestinal diseases, prioritizing innovative biotherapeutics and ADCs [14][22] - Takeda's global presence spans over 80 countries, with a strong emphasis on research and development, investing over $5 billion annually [27][28] Group 4: Leadership and Future Outlook - Christophe Weber, the first non-Japanese CEO of Takeda, has been pivotal in the company's global expansion and innovation strategy [29][30] - The upcoming leadership transition to Julie Kim is expected to continue the momentum in commercializing rare disease and oncology products [32][33] - The collaboration with Innovent is viewed as a significant asset for Takeda's future growth, particularly in the context of increasing competition and innovation in the biopharmaceutical sector [11][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China with a target price of HKD 22.5, indicating a potential upside of 22% [1][6]. Core Insights - The gaming industry shows resilience, with Sands China's market share in the mass gaming segment increasing in Q3 2025. The company reported net revenue of USD 1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1][6]. - The overall gaming gross revenue in Macau grew by 13% year-on-year in Q3, recovering to 88% of 2019 levels, driven by limited supply and high-end customer demand [1][6]. Summary by Sections Sands China Q3 2025 Performance - Sands China achieved net revenue of USD 1.9 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of USD 600 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7%. The performance is 79% of the 2019 levels, aligning with expectations [1][6]. - The company maintains earnings per share forecasts of USD 0.13 for 2025, USD 0.16 for 2026, and USD 0.19 for 2027 [1][6]. Market Share and Revenue Growth - Sands China's mass gaming revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, with high-end and regular mass gaming segments growing by 6% and 19%, respectively, recovering to 111% and 99% of 2019 levels [2][7]. - The company's market share in the mass gaming segment rose by 1.4 percentage points to 25.4%, attributed to aggressive customer reinvestment initiatives since mid-Q2 [2][7]. Industry Overview - The gaming industry's gross revenue in Macau is showing resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in Q3, primarily driven by VIP and high-end mass market customers [1][6]. - The report highlights that the recovery in gaming revenue is supported by limited supply and the resurgence of events such as concerts [1][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the acceleration of Chinese innovative drug companies' international expansion, marked by significant business development (BD) transactions, including a record $11.4 billion deal between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical [1][3] - Innovent Biologics announced a global strategic collaboration with Takeda, integrating their strengths in immuno-oncology and antibody-drug conjugates to expedite the global development of two late-stage drugs, with an upfront payment of $1.2 billion and potential milestone payments [1] - Other Chinese pharmaceutical companies, such as Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Beijing Ausun Pharmaceutical, have also reported significant BD agreements, indicating sustained market interest and high premium recognition for domestic innovative drugs [2] Group 2 - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies have significantly improved their R&D capabilities, becoming one of the most active forces in global BD, with a notable increase in overseas licensing transactions in 2023 [3] - The current trend of "going global" for innovative drugs primarily involves two models: self-driven internationalization and BD partnerships, with the latter being favored due to lower costs and risks [3] - The surge in BD activities in October is seen as a reflection of Chinese innovative drug companies entering the global mainstream, as multinational pharmaceutical companies seek to fill revenue gaps from patent expirations by collaborating with Chinese firms [4]

（来源：深蓝观） 吴妮 | 撰文 又一 | 编辑 如果放在几个月前，114亿美金总额、12亿美金首付的BD交易，无论如何也会点燃一波市场情绪。 10月22日，武田和信达宣布了这笔总额114亿美元的合作：涵盖三款处于不同阶段的药物：PD-1/IL-2双 抗 IBI363 由信达与武田共同开发，并计划在美国共同商业化，现处于全球Ⅲ期临床；CLDN18.2 ADC IBI343 在中国和日本进行Ⅲ期注册试验，武田拥有大中华区以外的独家权益；EGFR/B7H3 ADC IBI3001 处于Ⅰ期临床，武田持有大中华区以外的独家选择权。 但信达和武田的BD交易宣布之后，信达的股价连续两个交易日下跌。 二级市场早已习惯于用首付金额丈量价值，2025年前三季度中国创新药出海交易总金额达1029.96亿美 元(首付款49.76亿美元），不时涌现首付和交易总额齐高的案例，比如三生与辉瑞一笔交易首付便高达 12.5亿美元等案例，不断推高着市场对"天花板"的想象。 来源：市场资讯 信达与武田的交易涉及三个管线，市场以传统眼光看待12亿美元的首付，难免会认为三个管线被低估。 而且这笔钱并非单纯的"预付款"，而是投入一个共同"资金池"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda to co-develop three therapies, including IBI363 and IBI343, with a total potential deal value of up to $11.4 billion [5] - IBI363 is a next-generation immune checkpoint inhibitor that has shown promising results in clinical trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) [5] - IBI343 targets CLDN18.2 and is being developed for pancreatic and gastric cancers, with ongoing clinical trials showing encouraging results [5] - The company aims to become a leading global biopharmaceutical enterprise, leveraging its expertise in IO and ADC fields alongside Takeda's commercialization capabilities [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.4 billion, 149.7 billion, and 201.1 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 21.4%, 30.9%, and 34.3% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 864.68 million, 1,643.79 million, and 2,749.81 million CNY for the same years, reflecting significant growth [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2024 to 1.60 CNY by 2027 [7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the oncology pipeline is projected to grow from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 133.1 billion CNY in 2027, with a stable gross margin of around 85% [9] - Non-oncology pipeline revenues are expected to increase significantly, from 2 billion CNY in 2024 to 60 billion CNY in 2027, with a gross margin of 78% [9] - Licensing income is forecasted to stabilize at around 7 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2027 [9]

Core Insights - Chinese innovative drugs are experiencing a surge in international expansion, with significant achievements at global conferences highlighting their growing influence in the oncology field [1][4][10] Group 1: International Recognition and Achievements - At the recent ESMO annual meeting, Chinese researchers led 23 studies selected for "breakthrough abstracts," marking a historical high, along with 3 major results presented at the "presidential forum" [1] - The first self-developed anti-cancer drug from China was approved for sale in the U.S. in 2019, marking a pivotal moment for Chinese innovative drugs in the global market [4] - Over 20 domestic innovative drugs have been launched overseas, with notable approvals such as Diligent Pharma's drug, Shuwozhe, receiving accelerated approval from the FDA [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The number of authorized transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has surged, with total authorization amounts exceeding $100 billion in 2023, a historic first for a single year [7][9] - The clinical trial landscape in China is rapidly evolving, with new drug trials accounting for 30% of the global total, up from just 1% a decade ago, and China leading in oncology trial initiations [8] Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the progress, many Chinese companies are still in the "borrow a boat to go to sea" phase, lacking experience in conducting international clinical trials [10] - The path to true internationalization remains challenging, with companies needing to strengthen their domestic market presence while exploring opportunities beyond the U.S. market [11]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical marks a significant milestone in the global pharmaceutical landscape, setting a new record for the transaction amount in the innovative drug sector [1][2] - The partnership focuses on deep collaboration in the fields of tumor immunology (IO) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), aiming to accelerate global development and commercialization of multiple investigational drugs [1] Transaction Details - Takeda will pay Innovent a total of $1.2 billion upfront, which includes a strategic equity investment of $100 million at a subscription price of HKD 112.56 per share, representing a 20% premium over the weighted average share price over the past 30 trading days [1] - Innovent is also entitled to receive up to approximately $10.2 billion in milestone payments related to research and sales, along with potential sales revenue sharing outside Greater China [1] Market Context - The total value of biopharmaceutical business development (BD) transactions in China reached $63.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a 22.59% increase from 2023, with a notable rise in high-value transactions [2] - The collaboration between Innovent and Takeda is seen as a strategic move towards building global capabilities, aligning with Innovent's long-term goal of establishing a global R&D and commercialization network by 2030 [2] Industry Trends - As of October 21, 2025, the total amount of external licensing for Chinese innovative drugs has surpassed $100 billion, marking a historic high for a single year [3] - Companies like Innovent are reshaping the landscape of BD transactions, introducing new transaction amounts and methods that present more opportunities and possibilities in the market [3]

Core Insights - Sinda Biopharma (01801) has entered a global strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical, involving two late-stage therapies IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2α-bias) and IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC), as well as an early-stage project IBI3001 (EGFR/B7H3 ADC) [1] - The collaboration includes an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, which consists of a $100 million strategic equity investment, with potential milestone payments reaching up to $10.2 billion and potential sales sharing [1] - IBI363 is viewed as a next-generation cornerstone therapy for tumors, with a significant market potential, targeting a global immune-oncology (IO) responder population of approximately 1.5 million, corresponding to a $50 billion hot tumor market [1] Group 1 - IBI363 has accumulated over 1,200 patient clinical data, with plans to advance its global development in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC), including first-line indications [2] - The first global Phase 3 clinical study (MarsLight-11) for IBI363 has received FDA approval, focusing on IO-resistant squamous NSCLC patients, comparing IBI363 at a 3 mg/kg dose to docetaxel [2] - The collaboration model is expected to enhance Sinda Biopharma's experience in building global clinical and commercialization teams, leveraging Sinda's domestic development efficiency and Takeda's international capabilities [2] Group 2 - Takeda invests approximately $5 billion annually in R&D and has a clinical team of 4,500, possessing extensive experience in oncology and immunotherapy [2] - This partnership is anticipated to help Sinda Biopharma expand its global footprint and gradually establish R&D and commercialization capabilities in key international markets, maximizing long-term sustainable value [2]