Core Insights - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased due to fluctuations in international gold prices, with notable price hikes reported on November 3rd [1] Price Changes - Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price is reported at 1259 CNY per gram, an increase of 61 CNY per gram from the previous day [1][2] - Cai Bai Jewelry's price is at 1238 CNY per gram, rising by 70 CNY per gram [1][3] - A Yi Gold Store's price stands at 1256 CNY per gram, up by 63 CNY per gram [1][2] Ranking of Gold Jewelry Prices - The ranking of gold jewelry prices shows Chow Tai Fook leading at 1259 CNY per gram, followed by Lao Feng Xiang at 1256 CNY per gram, and A Yi Gold Store also at 1256 CNY per gram [2][3] - Other notable prices include: - Zhou Da Sheng at 1198 CNY per gram with no change - Liu Fu Jewelry at 1198 CNY per gram with no change - Cai Bai Jewelry at 1238 CNY per gram, up by 70 CNY per gram [2][3]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 周大福珠寶集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01929 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | HKD | | | 1 HKD | | 50,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | HKD | | | 1 HKD | | 50,000,000,000 | 本月底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of new tax policies regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration has led to a significant decline in the stock prices of gold jewelry companies in Hong Kong, indicating market concerns over the impact of these policies on the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold jewelry stocks collectively fell, with notable declines: Luk Fook Holdings down 7.96%, Chow Tai Fook down 7.49%, and Lao Poo Gold down 7.30% [3]. - The overall market sentiment reflects apprehension regarding the new tax regulations and their implications for gold consumption and investment [1]. Group 2: Tax Policy Implications - The new tax policy aims to differentiate between investment and non-investment uses of gold, reducing double taxation and lowering transaction costs [1]. - Analysts suggest that the policy primarily targets investment gold transactions, while the direct impact on consumer purchases of gold jewelry is expected to be minimal [2]. - However, if demand for investment gold shifts towards exchanges, the supply of non-exchange gold may decrease, potentially increasing production costs for gold jewelry and affecting retail prices [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - The market capitalization of affected companies is as follows: Luk Fook Holdings at 13.445 billion, Chow Tai Fook at 138.898 billion, Lao Poo Gold at 111.919 billion, and Chow Sang Sang at 8.773 billion [3]. - The price changes reflect a broader concern about the sustainability of profit margins in the gold jewelry sector under the new tax regime [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold retail brands experienced a significant decline in stock prices, with major players like Lao Pu Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Luk Fook Group dropping over 7% as of the morning of November 3rd [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Lao Pu Gold saw a decrease of 7.52%, trading at HKD 633.000 [2] - Chow Tai Fook's stock fell by 7.23%, with a current price of HKD 14.120 [2] - Luk Fook Group's shares dropped by 7.15%, now priced at HKD 23.100 [2] - Chow Sang Sang experienced a decline of 6.89%, trading at HKD 12.970 [2] - In the A-share market, the precious metals sector also faced declines, with Hunan Gold down over 4% [3]. Group 2: Tax Policy Announcement - On November 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy regarding gold transactions [3]. - The announcement states that members or clients trading standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax when selling standard gold [4]. - For transactions that do not involve physical delivery, the exchange will exempt value-added tax; for those that do involve physical delivery, the applicable value-added tax policy will be followed [4].

Group 1 - Gold mining and jewelry stocks experienced significant declines, with notable drops including Lao Pu Gold down 8.04% to 629.5 HKD, Chow Tai Fook down 6.18% to 14.28 HKD, and Shandong Gold down 4.53% to 31.22 HKD [1][1][1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced new tax policies regarding gold, aiming to clarify previous ambiguities in gold trading taxes and reduce speculative activities in the market [1][1][1] - A report from Huatai Futures suggests that while the new policy may pressure physical demand for gold in the short term, it could enhance the financial attributes of gold investments in the long term, making them more appealing to institutional investors [1][1][1] Group 2 - The new regulations categorize gold based on "purity + function," which is intended to suppress speculative arbitrage in the gold market and lower compliance costs for investors [1][1][1] - The potential increase in holding costs for gold may lead to a shift of household wealth towards the real economy or stock market, which could further stimulate economic activity [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in tax rates for gold and diamonds are expected to directly impact the pricing of jewelry products promoted by leading brands, with a notable increase in consumer costs anticipated due to these changes [1][3]. Tax Policy Changes - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies was released on October 29, effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027, replacing previous tax regulations [1]. - The new tax policy categorizes gold usage into investment and non-investment types, with more significant tax adjustments for non-investment purposes [3]. Impact on Retail and Consumer Behavior - Retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, have already adjusted prices multiple times this year, and the uncertainty surrounding further price changes due to the new tax policies adds pressure on brands [4]. - The introduction of a 7% tax on processed gold products, including jewelry, is expected to increase costs for consumers, although immediate price changes were not observed on the first day of the new policy [3][6]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Trends - The trend towards fixed-price gold products, particularly those featuring diamond inlays, has shown strong revenue potential, as evidenced by Chow Tai Fook's recent financial performance [4]. - The adjustment in tax policies may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, with potential growth in "goldsmith" shops that offer processing services for investment-grade gold purchased directly from banks [8]. Industry Implications - The new tax structure is likely to affect various segments of the gold supply chain, particularly wholesalers and retail stores, as they may be compelled to raise prices in response to increased costs [6][8]. - The retention of tax incentives for investment-grade gold at trading exchanges is expected to keep domestic gold prices aligned with international rates, minimizing extreme price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of gold and diamond tax rates is expected to increase the cost of purchasing jewelry, impacting leading brands' pricing strategies in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The announcement regarding the adjustment of gold tax rates was made on October 29, effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027, which has led to the cancellation of previous tax policies [1]. - The diamond tax rate adjustment was announced earlier, allowing the market to prepare, while the gold tax policy change was more sudden [1]. Group 2: Impact on Jewelry Brands - Leading jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold have been pushing fixed-price gold products, which are not directly tied to fluctuating gold prices, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [2]. - The recent tax adjustments have created pressure on brands, although it remains unclear if they will raise prices in response to the new tax policies [2]. Group 3: Industry Chain Effects - The impact of the new gold tax policy is anticipated to be most significant on the B-end of the gold industry chain, including suppliers, wholesalers, and retail stores [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in tax policies for gold and diamonds are expected to increase the cost of jewelry for consumers, impacting major brands that have been promoting diamond-studded gold products. The announcement of these changes has created pressure on retailers, although immediate price adjustments have not yet been observed in stores [1][4][10]. Tax Policy Changes - On October 29, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced changes to gold tax policies, effective from November 1, 2023, until December 31, 2027. This includes the cancellation of previous tax exemptions for diamonds, which will now be subject to a 13% VAT [1][4]. - The new gold tax policy categorizes gold usage into investment and non-investment types, with more significant tax adjustments for non-investment purposes. Non-investment gold transactions will be exempt from VAT, allowing buyers to deduct 6% of the invoice amount as input tax [4][18]. Market Impact - Retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, have reported feeling pressure from the new tax policies, although they have not yet raised prices in response to the changes. Store employees indicated uncertainty about future price adjustments due to the recent tax changes [9][10]. - The adjustments are expected to affect the entire gold industry supply chain, particularly impacting wholesalers and retail stores. The new tax structure may force retailers to increase prices to maintain margins as they face higher costs for raw materials [13][16]. Consumer Behavior - Observations from retail locations indicate a significant consumer interest in gold products, particularly those that have undergone multiple price increases this year. However, many customers are hesitant to make immediate purchases, reflecting uncertainty in the market [13][10]. - The introduction of the new tax policies has led to a temporary halt in price adjustments by retailers, as many are choosing to observe market reactions before making changes [16][10]. Future Trends - The new tax policies may lead to a rise in the popularity of gold processing shops, as consumers might seek to purchase investment-grade gold directly and process it themselves to avoid higher retail prices. This shift could challenge the traditional pricing models of established jewelry brands [16][18]. - The tax policy retains certain benefits for investment-grade gold, which may help stabilize prices in the market and prevent extreme fluctuations compared to international gold prices [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policy for gold aims to clarify the usage of gold raw materials and implement differentiated tax management, guiding market participants to reduce speculative behavior and promote healthy competition within the industry [2] - The policy changes are expected to benefit leading companies with strong brand and product capabilities, such as Cai Bai Co. and China Gold, while potentially impacting the procurement and liquidity of physical gold for certain enterprises [2][3] - The tax policy adjustments are likely to enhance the competitive edge of leading enterprises, ensuring stable profit margins through differentiated products and service levels [3][16] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, with specific tax implications for each category [4][10] - For investment purposes, the core change is that member units can only issue ordinary invoices to buyers, which cannot be used to deduct input tax, potentially increasing tax costs for businesses [4][7] - For non-investment purposes, the tax treatment shifts from "immediate tax refund" to "tax exemption," which reduces the financial burden on companies but increases the actual VAT payable due to a lower deduction rate [10][11] Impact on Companies - Listed gold jewelry companies, primarily engaged in jewelry retail, may face increased tax costs under the new regulations, but their core competitiveness will still rely on product and service quality [14][16] - The new tax regulations may lead to a shift in consumer purchasing behavior, encouraging purchases from member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [7][15] Recommendations - It is recommended to continue monitoring companies that engage in both investment gold and jewelry sales, such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, and traditional leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, as they are expected to maintain stable profit margins due to their strong market positions and product differentiation [16]

Core Insights - The gold prices in China have shown significant discrepancies among different brands, with prices ranging from 920.8 yuan per gram for investment gold bars at Cai Bai to 1198 yuan per gram at high-end brands like Chow Tai Fook [1][3][5]. Price Discrepancies - On November 1, 2025, the price of gold at Chow Tai Fook was 1198 yuan per gram, while Lao Miao Gold was at 1193 yuan, and China Gold was at 1118 yuan, indicating a price difference of up to 80 yuan per gram among brands [1][5]. - Investment gold bars at Cai Bai were priced at 920.8 yuan per gram, closely matching the Shanghai gold spot price of 920.7 yuan per gram, while other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang priced their investment gold at 1058 yuan per gram [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The price variations are attributed to recent fluctuations in international gold prices, which peaked at 4381.21 USD per ounce on October 20, 2025, before dropping below 4000 USD by October 28 [5][11]. - High-end brands maintain higher price points to preserve brand value, while mid-range brands are reducing price gaps to attract price-sensitive consumers [7][13]. Consumer Behavior - Young consumers prioritize style and brand over price differences, while middle-aged consumers are more price-conscious, often comparing prices across multiple stores [13][15]. - The gold recovery market is also active, with buyback prices ranging from 900 to 910 yuan per gram, indicating a profit margin for those who purchased gold earlier in the year [8][10]. Sales Trends - Despite high gold prices, sales have increased by 15% compared to the previous year, as consumers are concerned about potential future price increases [10][15]. - The market is witnessing a clear segmentation, with high-end customers opting for premium brands and middle-income consumers gravitating towards more affordable options [13][15].