2026.01. 01 盘和林认为，消费者如果想要投资黄金，需要有投资黄金的对应常识。"不需要你专业，但黄金定价 的基本认知还是要有的。金店中，大部分金价是追随国际金价的，店员的误导涉嫌虚假宣传，但法律 上很难去取证，消费者要自己明白。" 微信编辑 | 七三 本文字数：1050，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 宋婕 专家呼吁消费者理性看待短期金价波动和金饰营销话术。 1月1日，元旦假期首日，各大黄金珠宝品牌的克重金价在经历了12月30日的普跌之后，在假期期间 并未出现涨幅，金价还在下跌。 公开数据显示，12月30日，国内多家品牌的金饰克价集体大跌。其中，周大福、老凤祥、周六福和 老庙黄金均跌超40元/克，周生生更是跌超50元/克。次日，多家品牌金价止跌，部分品牌的足金克价 涨幅为几块钱的回升。 元旦假期首日，各大黄金珠宝品牌的足金金价又开始下跌。周大福报价1357/克（跌6），老凤祥报 价1360元/克（跌6），老庙黄金报价1354元/克（跌11），周生生报价1345元/克（跌10），六福珠 宝报价1361元/克（跌6）。部分品牌在1月1日的足金克价，比12月30日大跌之后的价格还要低。 知名经济学家 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market in Shanghai is experiencing a surge in activity, with significant enthusiasm from citizens and tourists for shopping during the New Year period [1] - The "1231 Year-End Carnival" at the Pudong First 800 Partner mall featured extended hours and strong promotional offers, leading to high foot traffic and sales [2][3] - The gold sales area in the mall was particularly busy, with brands implementing a ticketing system to manage customer flow, indicating high demand for gold jewelry [2] Group 2 - Various shopping centers in Shanghai organized diverse events and activities to attract consumers, particularly targeting younger demographics [4] - The West Bund and Jing'an Joy City saw significant participation in their New Year events, with many attendees engaging in shopping and social activities [4][5] - Reports indicate that several shopping districts extended their operating hours, resulting in increased foot traffic and sales, with notable growth in customer numbers and revenue across multiple venues [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable performance in FY26H1, with a slight decline in revenue but growth in operating and net profits, benefiting from improved consumer sentiment and a recovery in jewelry consumption in key markets [1]. Financial Performance - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 39 billion, down 1.1% year-on-year - Operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, up 0.2% year-on-year - Operating margin improved to 17.5%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin increased to 6.6%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Dividend Distribution - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. Segment Performance - Same-store sales turned positive across the board, with high-margin priced jewelry showing strong growth - Revenue breakdown: Mainland China revenue was HKD 32.2 billion, down 2.5% year-on-year (83% of total), while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was HKD 6.79 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year - Operating profit breakdown: Mainland China operating profit was HKD 5.71 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year (84% of total), while operating profit from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was HKD 1.11 billion, up 50.6% year-on-year [1]. Product Category Performance - Revenue from priced jewelry grew by 9.3% year-on-year, accounting for 29.6% of total sales - The contribution of priced jewelry to retail value in Mainland China increased from 27.4% to 31.8% year-on-year - Revenue from priced gold jewelry declined by 3.8% year-on-year, accounting for 65.2% of total sales, primarily due to store consolidation - Revenue from watches decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, accounting for 5.2% of total sales [2]. Same-Store Performance - Sales growth: Direct sales in Mainland China increased by 2.6%, franchise sales grew by 4.8%, and sales in Hong Kong and Macau rose by 4.4% - Sales volume decline: Direct sales in Mainland China fell by 9.7%, franchise sales dropped by 11.6%, and sales in Hong Kong and Macau decreased by 9.4% - Latest operational data (October 1 - November 18, 2025): Group retail value increased by 33.9% year-on-year, with Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets growing by 35.1% and 26.5% respectively - Same-store sales growth: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets increased by 38.8% and 18.3% respectively, with priced jewelry and priced gold jewelry same-store sales in Mainland China growing by 93.9% and 23.0% respectively [3]. Product Highlights - Key signature product lines, including the Chow Tai Fook Chuan Fu, Chuan Xi series, and Chow Tai Fook Palace Museum series, continued to perform strongly - Jewelry inlaid and gold-inlaid diamond products showed particularly bright performance - The Chow Tai Fook Chuan Xi series launched in April 2025 received a positive market response, contributing to a total sales of HKD 3.4 billion in FY26H1, up 48% year-on-year [3]. Channel Development - As of FY26H1, Chow Tai Fook had 5,663 retail outlets in Mainland China, with a net closure of 611 stores; 88 in Hong Kong and Macau, with a net opening of 1 store; and 63 in other markets, with a net opening of 1 store - The company continues to open new image stores to provide differentiated products and redefine the retail experience, with 8 new image stores established by the end of September 2025 [4]. Profitability - Gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to limited increases in gold prices affecting retail product margins; however, the increase in the proportion of priced jewelry and retail business positively impacted gross margin [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company has made positive progress in brand transformation and continues to optimize product strategies while improving operational efficiency - Adjusted profit forecasts for FY26-28 are HKD 8.63 billion, HKD 9.47 billion, and HKD 10.7 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trust of end consumers in the narrative of "gold as a store of value" is being tested due to recent fluctuations in gold prices and the pricing strategies of jewelry brands [2][4]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Consumer Behavior - On December 30, international gold prices closed at $4,340.13 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices saw significant declines, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang dropping over 40 yuan per gram [2]. - In mid-December, brands such as Chow Tai Fook announced price increases of around 15% for their products, indicating a trend of rising prices prior to the recent drop [2]. - The volatility in international gold prices is increasingly impacting the trading dynamics of the gold jewelry market, with sales personnel often not fully disclosing the risks associated with price fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Consumers exhibit irrational behavior characterized by "buying high and selling low," driven by narratives of inflation resistance and risk aversion during price surges, leading to increased purchasing intentions [4]. - When prices decline, consumer sentiment shifts to a wait-and-see approach, resulting in behaviors such as order cancellations and delays in product pickup [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold jewelry brands typically involves "raw material cost + processing fee + brand premium," leading to rapid price increases during gold price surges, while adjustments during price declines are more cautious due to inventory costs and consumer expectations [5]. Group 3: Trust Issues and Market Positioning - The price stickiness in the market can lead to consumers feeling "stuck" after purchasing at high prices, which undermines their trust in the narrative of gold as a reliable store of value [5]. - If brands continue to market gold jewelry as a value-preserving asset, a decline in gold prices could trigger a demand shrinkage and a crisis of trust among consumers [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the textile and apparel industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 12%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 4.1 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 first-level industries [4][10] - The apparel and home textile segment has seen an 11.3% increase, while the textile manufacturing segment rose by 9.6%, and the accessories segment outperformed with a 17.4% increase [4][10] - The report highlights a potential recovery in demand for textile manufacturing due to stable domestic consumption and a resilient export market, particularly in the U.S. [4][19] - The sleep economy is expanding rapidly, driven by increasing health awareness and consumer spending on sleep-related products [4][63] - The gold and jewelry sector faces short-term demand suppression due to rising gold prices, but consumer spending on gold jewelry remains strong [4][63] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.48, above the historical average since January 2020 [4][14] - The apparel and home textile segment has a TTM P/E ratio of 29.07, while the textile manufacturing segment stands at 23.9, and the accessories segment at 30.27, all above historical averages [4][14] Textile Manufacturing - Raw material prices are at historical lows, with cotton and synthetic fiber prices declining, while Australian wool prices have recently increased [4][19] - Domestic retail sales are showing steady growth, with apparel sales experiencing a slight recovery [4][30] - Export performance is affected by fluctuating tariffs and weak external demand, with a 4.4% year-on-year decline in apparel exports from January to November [4][43] Apparel and Home Textiles - The sleep economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased consumer awareness and spending on sleep health products [4][66] - The outdoor sports market is also expanding, with a trend towards specialization and segmentation, supported by rising consumer income levels [4][63] Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, temporarily suppressing demand for gold jewelry, but overall consumer budgets for gold jewelry are increasing [4][63] - The report notes that consumer preferences are shifting towards lighter and more innovative gold products, with a focus on craftsmanship and cultural connections [4][63] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong barriers in production capacity, technology, and customer relationships within the textile manufacturing sector, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [4][63] - For the apparel and home textile sector, it suggests focusing on high-growth segments related to the sleep economy and outdoor sports [4][63]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold jewelry prices among major domestic brands is attributed to a sharp decline in international gold prices, marking a rare and substantial correction after a year of rising prices. Price Movement - On December 30, major gold jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Lao Miao all saw price drops exceeding 40 yuan per gram, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a drop of over 50 yuan per gram [1] - The gold price for major brands on December 30 includes: - Chow Tai Fook: 1363 yuan/gram, down 42 yuan - Chow Sang Sang: 1353 yuan/gram, down 53 yuan - Lao Feng Xiang: 1363 yuan/gram, down 45 yuan - Six Fortune Jewelry: 1361 yuan/gram, down 42 yuan [2][3] Market Influences - The price adjustment in gold jewelry is primarily influenced by a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell over 200 USD in a single day on December 29, reaching a low of 4301.79 USD per ounce, a decline of 4.42% [3] - Other precious metals such as silver and platinum also experienced notable declines during this period [3] Trading Regulations - The rapid increase in precious and industrial metal futures prices has led to heightened volatility risks, prompting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to raise margin requirements for trading metals, effective after the close of trading on the following Monday. Gold futures margin will increase by 10%, silver by approximately 13.6%, and platinum by 23% [3] - This increase in margin requirements is expected to significantly raise the cost of speculative trading, leading some investors to liquidate positions before the new rules take effect, resulting in multiple rounds of price declines in international metal futures on December 29 [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the recent price correction is driven by technical and liquidity factors rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term outlook for precious metals. Despite the short-term market sentiment being under pressure, the bullish drivers for gold remain intact [4] - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to 5000 USD per ounce, with an expectation that prices will retreat to 4800 USD per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than previous forecasts [4]

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4,340.8 per ounce, while international palladium is at $1,608.4 per ounce, and international silver is at $72.28 per ounce. The domestic gold price is at ¥992.9 per gram [1] - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Lao Feng Xiang at the highest price of ¥1,408 per gram and China Gold at the lowest price of ¥1,312 per gram. Other notable prices include Chow Tai Fook at ¥1,405, Chow Sang Sang at ¥1,406, and Liufuk Jewelry at ¥1,405 per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in domestic gold jewelry prices and analyzes the potential for a continued bull market in gold for 2026, influenced by various economic factors and investor behavior [1][3]. Price Comparison - As of December 30, 2025, several gold jewelry brands reported a notable price drop for domestic 24K gold jewelry, with Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook both priced at 1363 CNY per gram, while Lao Miao Gold was at 1359 CNY per gram, and Chow Sang Sang at 1353 CNY per gram. Liufu Jewelry maintained a price of 1403 CNY per gram [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The international gold price has seen fluctuations, dropping from a previous high of 4550 USD to around 4350 USD. The article raises the question of whether the gold bull market can continue into 2026 [2][3]. Support for Gold Market - Key factors supporting the gold market include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with three cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025 and an anticipated 2-3 cuts in 2026. Additionally, global central bank gold purchases are expanding beyond geopolitical nations, with the share of dollar assets in global reserves decreasing from 72% to 56%, while gold reserves have increased to 25% [3]. Investor Behavior - Gold investment returns and capital inflows are positively correlated, with significant demand for gold observed in 2025, totaling 551.5 tons, 477.5 tons, and 537.2 tons in the first three quarters, respectively. Gold ETF and derivatives investments also showed strong performance, with figures of 226.6 tons, 170.5 tons, and 221.7 tons, all higher than the previous year. Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption compared to the previous year, quarterly consumption remains high at nearly 400 tons [3]. Potential Risks - Possible negative factors for gold in 2026 include easing inflation pressures in the U.S., which historically led to declines in gold prices during periods of high inflation retreat. Additionally, liquidity pressures could prompt central banks to sell gold, as seen during the 1997 Asian financial crisis when global central banks sold gold, leading to significant price drops [4].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have shown a downward trend, with mainstream market prices falling to the range of 1403-1408 yuan per gram, a decrease from recent highs [1] - Major brands' gold prices are as follows: Lao Miao at 1403 yuan, Liu Fu at 1403 yuan, and Zhou Da Fu at 1405 yuan, all reflecting a decline [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have also decreased, with Zhou Da Fu's platinum price dropping by 29 yuan per gram to 950 yuan [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have increased, with the following reference prices: 1001.40 yuan per gram for gold, 977.50 yuan for Cai Zi gold, and 967.20 yuan for Zhou Sheng Sheng gold [2] - The price differences among various brands for gold recycling are significant [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - Last Friday, spot gold reached a record high of 4549.57 USD per ounce, closing at 4533.34 USD, up 1.19% [4] - Current spot gold shows a downward trend, reported at 4514.55 USD per ounce, down 0.39% [4] - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [4] - Market sentiments have slightly eased following a meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, impacting gold prices negatively [4] - Short-term gold prices may experience downward pressure due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions, although overall prices are expected to remain high [4]

短期来看，公司作为行业龙头，能够凭借规范的采购渠道和强大的品牌议价能力传导成本压力，减低黄 金增值税扰动；中长期看，国际化进程加速，公司计划继续拓展大洋洲、加拿大及中东等新市场，为公 司品牌转型打造第二增长曲线。该行预计周大福2026至2028年可分别实现归母净利润75.7亿、86.1亿、 97.3亿元，分别对应15.1倍、13.3倍、11.8倍市盈率，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 东北证券发表研报指，周大福2026财年上半年业绩展现稳健复苏，营业额达389.86亿港元，与去年同期 基本持平；受益于费用率的改善，经营溢利实现按年增长0.7%至68.23亿港元，经营溢利率达17.5%，创 近五年新高；计提黄金借贷合约亏损31.43亿港元后，归母净利润25.34亿港元，按年基本持平。 ...