行业框架：黄金珠宝研究框架 20250822 摘要 2023 年中国黄金珠宝市场规模达 8,413 亿元，黄金首饰占比最高约为 5,000 亿元，钻石类市场规模约 600 多亿元，但呈现快速萎缩趋势，玉 石珠宝类占比约 18%即 1,500 亿元左右，线下渠道仍为主导，占比约 90%。 黄金珠宝行业与经济发展密切相关，中国人均珠宝消费额相较美国仍有 提升空间，长期来看，中国黄金珠宝行业仍具发展潜力，本土品牌在高 端市场表现提升，反映中国民族设计和国潮设计崛起。 珠宝产业链下游渠道端毛利率最高，内资企业在下沉市场和高端市场均 表现强劲，市场可按品牌资本属性（内资、外资、港资）和产品品类 （黄金、K 金、钻石）划分，黄金首饰属低毛利高周转品类，K 金和钻 石毛利率较高。 直营店模式多用于高端市场，加盟店模式面向大众市场，2023 年全球 黄金实际消费量约为 1,089 吨，首饰金需求占比在 60%至 65%之间， 婚庆需求约占三分之一，悦己型需求占比更大。 Q&A 金价稳步上涨利于稳定需求，急跌时易引发抢购潮，急涨则短期抑制消 费，持续阴跌不利于销量，但品牌溢价高的公司受金价波动影响较小， 中国黄金首饰工艺创新显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a shift from traditional value preservation to cultural and emotional significance, driven by younger consumers seeking social currency in their purchases [2][5][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, gold prices are high, leading to intense competition among brands, with top brands innovating while smaller brands struggle under high prices and homogenization [2][3]. - The consumer base is experiencing a "K-shaped" differentiation, where high-end customization and light luxury dominate the market, driven by younger demographics [2][8]. - The shift in consumer motivation is evident, with over 60% of consumers under 35 purchasing gold for personal enjoyment rather than traditional purposes [5][6]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Chow Tai Fook has reported a 9.8% increase in operating profit for the fiscal year 2025, reaching HKD 14.746 billion, despite high gold prices [3][12]. - The company has seen a 105.5% increase in revenue from priced gold products, with significant contributions from its "Chuanfu" and "Chow Tai Fook Palace" series, each generating approximately HKD 4 billion in sales [3][4]. - Chow Tai Fook is implementing a comprehensive brand transformation strategy, collaborating with popular IPs and launching innovative products to engage Gen Z consumers [3][4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly valuing the cultural and social attributes of gold jewelry, leading to a transformation in purchasing behavior from traditional needs to emotional expression [4][10]. - The rise of digital channels, including live e-commerce and social media, has become crucial for brands to reach younger consumers, with live sales in the jewelry category accounting for 35% of total sales in 2025 [6][8]. - The concept of gold as a "social currency" is gaining traction, with consumers sharing their purchases on social media, reflecting a shift in how gold is perceived and valued [6][10]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing increased polarization, with leading brands leveraging innovation to maintain growth while smaller brands face significant operational challenges [7][9]. - The new consumer formula for gold value incorporates design premium and cultural significance, which are becoming essential for brand differentiation [7][9]. - The market is seeing a clear segmentation, with high-end custom markets attracting affluent consumers, while fast fashion and light luxury segments cater to younger buyers [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of gold brands hinges on their ability to become cultural symbols rather than mere commodity processors, emphasizing the need for innovation in cultural, technological, and experiential dimensions [11][14]. - Companies are encouraged to expand their brand matrices and optimize channel strategies to meet diverse consumer needs, while smaller brands should focus on niche markets and quality improvements [9][14].

Group 1 - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on brand upgrades and consumer preferences shifting towards innovative and differentiated products [1][4] - Young consumers are increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, moving from a singular focus on value preservation to a multi-faceted approach that includes cultural recognition and emotional value [1][2] - The rise of IP collaborations in gold jewelry, particularly appealing to younger demographics, is becoming a significant growth engine for the industry [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are enhancing their product offerings by integrating cultural and emotional values, aiming to create unique products that resonate with younger consumers [3][4] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on store expansion to prioritizing product quality and brand differentiation, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations [4] - The emergence of brands like Laopu Gold is leading the industry towards a more brand-centric and high-end development model, which is expected to increase customer loyalty and profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - Lao Pu Gold (06181) has seen a significant stock increase of over 5%, attributed to the opening of a new store in Shanghai and a positive earnings forecast for the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Lao Pu Gold's new store in Shanghai New World opened on August 2, attracting hundreds of consumers and offering a limited-time discount [1] - The company expects to achieve revenue between 12 billion to 12.5 billion RMB for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255% [1] - Net profit is projected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 279% to 288% [1] Group 2: Market Position and Future Outlook - Dongwu Securities reports that Lao Pu Gold is a leading player in the ancient gold product category in China, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients [1] - The company is expected to continue its impressive sales performance into the first half of 2025, with ongoing brand momentum and expansion through new store openings [1] - The expansion of overseas stores is anticipated to enhance the company's long-term brand strength and market presence [1]

Core Insights - The rise of domestic original design brands is driven by popular cultural products like "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Nezha 2," with the ancient gold jewelry sector experiencing significant growth due to personalized demand and emotional value [2][22] - The brand "Hua Pu" is emerging in the ancient gold market, closely resembling the established brand "Lao Pu" in terms of store design and product presentation, leading to potential consumer confusion [5][6] Company Overview - Hua Pu Gold Jewelry Culture Co., Ltd. was established in 2019 with a registered capital of 5 million RMB and operates as a small micro-enterprise with no employees reported for 2024 [6] - The company has opened several physical stores in major cities like Zhengzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an, primarily located in high-end commercial centers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The ancient gold jewelry market has seen explosive growth, with its market size increasing from 13 billion RMB in 2018 to 157.3 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 35.3% of annual gold jewelry consumption [22] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in China grew by 6.1% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating a rising consumer demand for luxury goods [21] Competitive Landscape - Lao Pu, recognized as a leading brand in the ancient gold sector, opened its first overseas store in Singapore, achieving significant revenue growth of 168% year-on-year in 2024 [14] - The market is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants like Junpei and Baolan targeting younger consumers with lower-priced products [16] Consumer Behavior - The ancient gold jewelry sector is appealing to mid-to-high-end consumers due to its unique marketing strategies that emphasize cultural and emotional narratives rather than just weight-based pricing [13][22] - The success of brands like Lin Chao Jewelry, which utilizes a "non-heritage handmade customization" strategy, highlights the importance of innovative marketing and consumer engagement through social media [11][13]

Summary of Conference Call on Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the gold and jewelry retail sector, highlighting significant growth in the industry, particularly among innovative and high-end brands leading the new consumer trend in gold jewelry [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Consumer Demand Shift**: There is a notable migration in the consumer demographic towards high-value, well-designed gold jewelry products, moving away from traditional offerings. This shift is driven by younger consumers who are increasingly valuing design and brand differentiation [2][5][6]. - **Valuation Changes**: The industry has seen a shift in valuation metrics, with brands now trading at 20 to 30 times earnings, compared to the previous range of 10 to 20 times. This reflects a fundamental change in the investment logic of the sector [2][11]. - **Sales Performance**: The sales return on investment for jewelry stores is strong, with a payback period of 1 to 2 years, encouraging retailers to expand their store presence [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is experiencing a bifurcation where brands with strong design capabilities and innovative products are outperforming those relying on traditional sales models. This has led to a significant increase in the market share of brands like Lao Pu and Tang Wen Bin, which are now valued at around 30 times earnings [11][16]. Important Trends - **Product Differentiation**: There is a growing preference for products with unique designs and brand identities. Companies with a high proportion of innovative products, such as Lao Pu, are seeing substantial sales growth [5][10]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The younger generation is shifting towards jewelry that reflects personal style and cultural significance, moving away from purely investment-driven purchases [8][9][17]. - **Retail Expansion**: Major brands are expanding their retail footprint, with Lao Pu and others planning to open numerous new stores in key urban areas, indicating confidence in future demand [15][25]. Additional Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlighted potential investment opportunities in companies that are adapting to the new consumer landscape by enhancing their product design and brand positioning [2][10][29]. - **Challenges**: Some brands are facing challenges due to rising costs and changing consumer preferences, necessitating a reevaluation of their product offerings and marketing strategies [27][28]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in the gold and jewelry sector, driven by innovation and a deeper understanding of consumer needs [20][24][36]. Conclusion - The gold and jewelry industry is undergoing a transformative phase characterized by a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, well-designed products. Companies that can adapt to these changes are likely to thrive, while those that do not may struggle to maintain market share. The conference provided valuable insights into the current state and future prospects of the industry, emphasizing the importance of design and brand differentiation in driving growth.

Global Gold Market Overview - The international gold price surged to $3,335 per ounce on July 9, 2025, with domestic prices also rising, reflecting a strong correlation with global trends [1] - Over 90% of central banks surveyed, a record 73 banks, expect to increase their gold reserves in the next year, marking a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - Nearly half of the central banks indicated a clear intention to augment their gold holdings, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid rising global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has persisted for 15 years, driven by gold's long-term value retention, diversification needs, and stability during economic crises [1] - 73% of surveyed central banks predict a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [1] - As of June 30, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, reflecting a 0.98% increase, which aligns with the growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Domestic Gold Retail Market Price Analysis - Domestic gold retail prices are showing a steady upward trend, in line with international gold price movements [2] - The domestic gold base price was reported at 772.40 yuan per gram, up 0.60% from the previous closing price of 767.82 yuan per gram [4] - Prices for various gold products, including 9999 gold, increased by 0.55%, while some futures prices saw significant rises of 9.99% and 6.26%, indicating a surge in investment demand [4] Shenzhen Shui Bei Wholesale Market Prices - The Shui Bei market, a key center for China's gold and jewelry industry, reported prices for various gold types ranging from 782 to 783 yuan per gram, with platinum priced at 352 yuan per gram [5] Summary - The overall trend in the gold market as of July 9, 2025, is upward, driven by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [6] - Domestic gold prices are also rising, as reflected in both brand jewelry store prices and wholesale market prices [6] - Future gold market trends will depend on international economic conditions, geopolitical changes, and investor confidence [6]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The rise of emotional consumption is driving the development of related industries, as China transitions from "consumption upgrade" to "consumption stratification" [1][12][23] - Consumers are increasingly seeking cost-effectiveness in traditional products while being willing to pay a premium for innovative and emotionally valuable products [12][23] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and sports and entertainment products have shown positive growth, with gold and jewelry retail sales up by 12.3% and cosmetics by 4.1% in early 2025 [12][19] Group 2: Trend in Emotional Consumption - Emotional consumption is gaining traction due to fast-paced lifestyles and information overload, leading to increased demand for products that provide emotional comfort [23][25] - Young consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are the main drivers of emotional consumption, accounting for 78% of the market [25][29] - Female consumers represent a larger share of emotional consumption, with preferences differing from male consumers in product categories [25][30] Group 3: Trend in Toy Industry - The Chinese toy market is rapidly expanding, with the market size projected to grow from 229 billion to 763 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 35.11% [2][31] - Factors driving this growth include rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional value in purchases, and the popularity of quality IPs [31][32] - The market remains fragmented, with significant room for consolidation as the top three companies hold only 23.7% of the market share [2][39] Group 4: Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from channel-driven to product-driven, with high dividend yields providing defensive attributes [3][19] - Despite a slowdown in store expansion due to rising gold prices, some companies are achieving rapid growth through superior craftsmanship and marketing [3][19] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3][19] Group 5: Cosmetics Industry - The domestic cosmetics market is witnessing a rise of local brands, with strong performance during promotional events like "618" [4][19] - Local brands are focusing on R&D and marketing to differentiate themselves, capturing market share from international brands [4][19] - The acceptance of domestic beauty brands among younger consumers is increasing, indicating potential for further market penetration [4][19]

Core Insights - The sixth "Shanghai Shopping Festival" is taking place from late April to late June, focusing on exploring new highlights and trends in Shanghai's physical consumption [1] - There is a noticeable increase in young consumers purchasing gold, with brands adapting their product designs to cater to this demographic [1][7] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Young consumers aged 18 to 34 contribute over one-third of gold jewelry sales, showing a shift in purchasing power towards younger demographics [7] - The trend of buying gold has become a frequent topic in social interactions, indicating a cultural shift in consumer behavior [1] - Traditional jewelry brands are innovating to meet changing consumer demands, with younger buyers favoring smaller, culturally significant designs over traditional heavy gold pieces [7][8] Group 2: Promotional Activities - The "Five-Five Shopping Festival" saw significant promotional activities, including high-value consumer vouchers that led to long queues at gold stores [3] - The first round of exclusive consumer vouchers for the "Endless Trend Huaihai Road" was fully claimed within 8 seconds, demonstrating high consumer interest [5] - Stores have increased staffing and implemented strategies to manage the influx of customers due to promotional activities [5][10] Group 3: Industry Developments - Shanghai is positioning itself as an international jewelry fashion hub, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through a three-year development plan [12][13] - The establishment of the Shanghai International Jewelry Fashion Functional Zone aims to attract investment and promote innovation within the industry [12] - The local government is actively supporting the development of the jewelry sector to enhance Shanghai's status as a global consumption center [13]

Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $3301 per ounce before rebounding to $3333 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting a drop of 7 yuan per gram, bringing the price to 978 yuan per gram [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to recent instability and urged members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [3] Group 2 - There has been a notable shift in consumer preferences towards smaller weight gold jewelry to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5][6] - The popularity of traditional gold, enamel, and intricately carved products has increased among consumers [6] - The "old for new" and recycling business for gold items is thriving, with many consumers opting to exchange old gold for new pieces or cash in on high prices [6] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, accumulating 1.03 million ounces over the past seven months, although the pace of purchases has slowed [8] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical and economic changes may lead to a prolonged period of rising gold prices, reducing the necessity to pause gold purchases for cost control [8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 69% of central banks expect the share of gold in global reserves to increase over the next five years, contrasting with a decline in the share of US dollar reserves [8][9] Group 4 - The World Gold Council believes that gold prices still have potential for growth, as global trade tensions and rising tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation [9] - Economic slowdowns may pressure stock markets and cyclical commodities, positioning gold as one of the few resilient assets in a stagflation environment [9]