Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB12,919.7 million (US$1,770.0 million), an increase of 21.7% from RMB10,619.4 million in Q4 2023[8] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 reached RMB2,733.3 million (US$374.5 million), a 23.4% increase from RMB2,214.4 million in Q4 2023[5] - Adjusted net income was RMB10,150.4 million (US$1,390.6 million), up from RMB9,005.9 million last year[40] - Net income rose by 1.5% to RMB8,887.6 million (US$1,217.6 million) compared to RMB8,754.5 million last year[38] - Adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB8,816,835, reflecting a 0.8% increase from RMB8,749,004 in 2023[62] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB8.89 billion, a slight increase of 1.5% from RMB8.75 billion in 2023[67] Revenue Growth - For the full year 2024, total revenues were RMB44,280.7 million (US$6,066.4 million), a 15.3% increase from RMB38,418.9 million in 2023[5] - Total revenues increased by 15.3% to RMB44,280.7 million (US$6,066.4 million) from RMB38,418.9 million last year[24] - Revenues for Q4 2024 reached RMB 12,919,702, representing a 21.7% increase from RMB 10,619,434 in Q4 2023[62] Parcel Volume - Parcel volume increased to 9,665 million in Q4 2024, representing an 11.0% growth from 8,705 million in Q4 2023[6] - The average daily retail parcel volume exceeded 7 million, nearly a 50% increase compared to the same quarter last year[7] - The company expects parcel volume for 2025 to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion, representing a 20% to 24% year-over-year increase[46] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was RMB4,615.3 million (US$632.3 million), up 26.4% from RMB3,651.8 million in Q4 2023[5] - EBITDA increased to RMB15,094.3 million (US$2,067.9 million) from RMB13,857.8 million last year[41] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB16,354.9 million (US$2,240.6 million), compared to RMB14,107.3 million last year[42] - Basic and diluted earnings per ADS attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB10.95 (US$1.50) and RMB10.70 (US$1.47), respectively[38] Costs and Expenses - Total cost of revenues increased by 14.2% to RMB30,563.6 million (US$4,187.2 million) from RMB26,756.4 million last year[25] - Total operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, were RMB1,940,233, an increase from RMB1,654,602 in 2023[62] Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow from operating activities for Q4 2024 was RMB2,806.3 million (US$384.5 million), compared to RMB3,923.3 million in Q4 2023[5] - Cash and cash equivalents rose from RMB 12.33 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.47 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.2%[66] - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased from RMB 13.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.43 billion in 2024, a decline of 14.4%[66] - Total assets increased from RMB 88.47 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.34 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 4.4%[64] Shareholder Returns and Equity - The company announced a semi-annual dividend of US$0.35 per share[1] - The company has a remaining US$778.0 million available under its share repurchase program[45] - The company’s total equity increased from RMB 60.28 billion in 2023 to RMB 62.67 billion in 2024, a growth of 4.0%[64] - The number of shares outstanding decreased slightly from 804.72 million in 2023 to 798.62 million in 2024[64] Future Outlook - The company estimates industry growth for 2025 to be around 15%[7] - The company expects continued growth driven by the expansion of e-commerce in China and its scalable network partner model[60] - The company plans to enhance its logistics services and expand its market presence through strategic partnerships and technology investments[60] Management Insights - ZTO's management emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP measures like adjusted EBITDA for understanding operational performance[51]

Financial Performance - Revenues for 2023 reached RMB 38,418,915 thousand, a 8.6% increase from RMB 35,376,996 thousand in 2022[51] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 11,662,526 thousand, representing a 29.1% increase compared to RMB 9,039,275 thousand in 2022[51] - Net income attributable to ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. for 2023 was RMB 8,749,004 thousand, up 28.5% from RMB 6,809,056 thousand in 2022[51] - Basic net earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 10.83, an increase from RMB 8.41 in 2022[51] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, consolidated revenue reached RMB 44,280,720, an increase from RMB 38,418,915 in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 15.5%[56] - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 13,717,092, compared to RMB 11,662,526 in 2023, indicating a growth of about 18%[56] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 8,887,595, up from RMB 8,754,457 in 2023, representing a slight increase of approximately 1.5%[56] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 88,465,221 thousand, up from RMB 78,523,586 thousand in 2022, reflecting a growth of 12.4%[52] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 28,184,813 thousand, an increase from RMB 24,051,116 thousand in 2022, reflecting a growth of 17.7%[52] - As of December 31, 2024, total assets for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. amounted to RMB 92,340,330 thousand, an increase from RMB 88,465,221 thousand as of December 31, 2023[53][54] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 29,665,497 thousand in 2024 from RMB 28,184,813 thousand in 2023, indicating a slight increase of about 5.3%[53][54] - The company’s total liabilities and equity increased to RMB 92,340,330 thousand in 2024 from RMB 88,465,221 thousand in 2023, marking a growth of approximately 4.4%[53][54] Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2023 were RMB 12,333,884 thousand, compared to RMB 11,692,773 thousand at the end of 2022, indicating a 5.5% increase[52] - Net cash provided by operating activities for 2023 was RMB 13,360,967 thousand, a 16.4% increase from RMB 11,479,308 thousand in 2022[52] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB 11,429,436 thousand, an increase from RMB 13,360,967 thousand in 2023[58] - In 2024, net cash used in investing activities was RMB (5,980,724) thousand, compared to RMB (12,252,751) thousand in 2023, indicating a significant reduction in cash outflow[58] - The company reported net cash used in financing activities of RMB (4,995,180) thousand for 2024, a decrease from RMB (769,836) thousand in 2023[58] Market and Competition - The company faces intense competition from domestic express delivery companies, which may lead to downward pricing pressure and affect market share[76] - The company faces competition from major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, which may affect market share and total parcel volume[77] - The company’s growth is highly dependent on the development of the e-commerce industry and the emergence of New Retail in China[67] - More than 90% of the total parcel volume in December 2024 was attributable to e-commerce platforms, highlighting the company's reliance on the e-commerce industry[67] Operational Challenges - The company has experienced a decline in delivery service market prices historically, which may continue to impact revenue and gross margin[76] - Any service disruptions experienced by the company's sorting hubs or network partners may adversely affect business operations and customer satisfaction[76] - The company has experienced significant operational disruptions in 2022 due to COVID-19, resulting in delays and a lower-than-expected parcel volume[80] - Heavy rainfalls and floods in Hebei province in July and August 2023 caused temporary closures of facilities, sorting hubs, and service outlets[80] Regulatory and Compliance Risks - The company is subject to various PRC laws and regulations, including the requirement to obtain and maintain Courier Service Operation Permits, which could impact operations if not complied with[99] - The Interim Regulations on Express Delivery impose requirements such as timely filing records with local postal administrations and maintaining service quality, with non-compliance potentially leading to fines or business suspension[100] - The company is subject to significant compliance costs and potential penalties due to unethical or anticompetitive conduct within its network[155] - The company may face significant challenges in enforcing contractual arrangements with ZTO Express, which could lead to material adverse effects on business operations[182] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and service offerings[56] - The company intends to diversify its service offerings and expand its customer base to increase revenue sources, acknowledging potential risks and challenges associated with new initiatives[96] - The company plans to further expand its network in response to increasing customer needs, but may face challenges in integrating and optimizing a larger network[93] Human Resources - As of December 31, 2024, the company had a total of 24,471 employees, indicating a labor-intensive operational model[84] - Labor costs are expected to increase due to a competitive labor market, particularly during peak seasons[84] - The company may face challenges in attracting and retaining qualified personnel, which is critical for its operational success and expansion plans[120] Financial Instruments and Investments - The company has issued US$1 billion in convertible senior notes due 2027, bearing interest at 1.50% per year, with potential repurchase obligations starting September 2, 2025[150] - The company has made strategic investments, including a US$168 million investment for a 15% equity stake in Cainiao Post, aimed at enhancing delivery capacity[148] Currency and Economic Risks - Fluctuations in the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar could materially affect revenues and earnings, impacting the valuation of Class A ordinary shares and ADSs[209] - Limited hedging options in China may exacerbate currency exchange losses, affecting investment value[211] - Government controls on currency conversion may hinder the effective utilization of revenues and affect dividend payments to shareholders[212] Corporate Governance - Mr. Meisong Lai holds 206,100,000 Class B ordinary shares, representing 78.0% of the aggregate voting power, giving him decisive influence over corporate matters[239] - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under the NYSE Listed Company Manual, allowing it to rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements[240] Legal and Taxation Issues - The company may face uncertainties regarding reporting obligations and potential taxation in past and future transactions involving PRC taxable assets[224] - The PRC Company Law was amended on December 29, 2023, with new requirements for companies established in China, effective July 1, 2024, which could materially affect corporate structure and operations if not met[187]

专注高质量服务，24Q4 散单同比增长超 50%。量：公司 2024 年实现快递件量 340.1 亿件，同比+12.6%，市占率 19.4%，同比 -3.4pp，24Q4 看，单季度公司实现快递件量 96.7 亿件，同比+11%， 市占率 18.8%，同比-3.5pp，公司持续提升散件业务规模，24Q4 散件日均件量突破 700 万单，较 23 年同比增长近 50%。价：2024 年公司单票快递业务收入 1.20 元，同比+2.5%；从 24Q4 单季度看， 中通的直客结构优化抵消了单票重量下降及增量补贴增加的负面 影响，单票快递业务收入 1.24 元，同比+11%，快递核心单票收入 提升 0.13 元。成本：2024 年公司单票快递业务成本 0.68 元，同 比-6%；单季度看单票运输加分拣成本下降了约 6 分。 经营性现金流稳定，25 年包裹量增长同比预期超+20%。2024 全年公司实现毛利润 137.2 亿元，同比+18%，净利润 88.9 亿元， 同比+1.5%，实现调整后净利 101.5 亿元。单季度看，24Q4 实现 毛利润 37.6 亿元，同比+20.2%，净利润 24.5 亿元，同比+10. ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 若提振内需，量价有望上行 2018-19 年快递量价增速上行 2018 年 7 月-2019 年 9 月，美国对中国出口商品加征关税。在外需增长 受阻的情况下，中国扩大内需。快递服务于国内线上商品零售，受益于扩 大内需。2018 年底开始，快递行业收入增速大幅上升，快递价格从大幅 下滑转为增长，2019H1 快递单量增速也有所上升。2018 年底到 2019 年底，国内快递头部公司顺丰控股和中通快递的扣非归母净利润增速都有 所回升。 若提振内需，单量有望高增长 2025 年 4 月 8 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率 由 34%提高至 84%，税率远超 2018-19 年，对中国商品出口美国的影 响或将超过 2018-19 年。因此，中国可能加大内需刺激力度，推动国内 商品零售增长，尤其是线上零售增长，有望带动快递单量加速增长。由于 2025 年美国加关税幅度更大，刺激内需力度也要更大，才能对冲加关税 的负面影响，所以 2025 年下半年，国内快递单量增速的上行幅度，有可 能超过 2019 年。 快递价格跌幅大，或将回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand, which may lead to higher growth in delivery volumes and prices [1][2]. - The express delivery price decline reached 18% year-on-year in February 2025, but a recovery is anticipated as competition eases and demand increases [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered due to unexpected price declines, with projected net profits of 10.4 billion and 11.7 billion respectively, down from previous estimates [4]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The express delivery volume and price growth are expected to rise due to domestic demand stimulation in response to increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [2]. - The domestic express delivery market is projected to see significant volume growth, potentially exceeding the growth rates observed in 2019 [2]. Price Trends - A significant drop in express delivery prices has been noted, but a cyclical recovery is expected as market conditions improve [3]. - The competitive landscape may stabilize, leading to a narrowing of price declines, which would benefit profitability for express delivery companies [3]. Financial Projections - The report has adjusted the profit forecasts for ZTO Express, projecting net profits of 10.4 billion, 11.7 billion, and 12.4 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8, 8.8, and 8.3 [4].

颜惠萍认为，中国快递这张国家名片，不仅代表着中国形象和软实力，还展示了中国在快递领域的领先 地位——自动化分拣、智能仓储、大数据分析、无人机配送等技术取得显著进展，中国强大的制造业与 快速发展的电商行业也为快递企业出海提供产业支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，近年来，中国快递企业加速布局海外市场，越来越多中国快递企业出海成功。近 日，中通快递(02057)首席财务官颜惠萍作为中国企业女性高管代表之一，受邀出席巴西2025年洲际女 性论坛，介绍中国快递出海情况。 颜惠萍介绍，2024年中通快递全年实现包裹量340亿件，营收达442.81亿元。国际业务量7135.95万件， 营收32.24 亿元。国际跨境快递服务涵盖跨境进出口专线、集运、跨境冷链等，覆盖全球220多个国家和 地区。 中国快递出海底蕴十足 在颜惠萍看来，中国快递出海的信心在于规模效应、物流网络经验、技术升级、制造业与电商支撑、政 策支持和服务理念协同发展上。中国快递业务量连续多年位居世界第一，这种规模效应使得中国快递企 业具有显著优势。同时，企业积累的高效物流网络建设和管理经验可直接应用到海外市场，助其提升运 营效率和服务质量。 物流、仓储、运输、客服等 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen interconnection logistics shows a recent performance with a 1.53% increase over the past month, a 3.20% decrease over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 3.20% [1] - The index is based on the comprehensive index samples and the China Securities 500 Index samples, reflecting the overall performance of securities listed in the interconnection range across the three markets [1] - The index's top ten holdings include companies such as Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (9.37%), SF Holding (6.77%), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (5.95%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that railway transportation accounts for 18.28%, shipping for 17.98%, and express delivery for 16.64% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - In case of special circumstances, temporary adjustments to the index samples may occur, including the removal of companies that are delisted or undergo significant corporate changes [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.281 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 12.92 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes ZTO's leading market share in the express delivery industry, with a focus on maintaining and enhancing its competitive position [5][7] Financial Summary - In 2024, ZTO Express's adjusted net profit was 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 44.281 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s express delivery volume reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 12.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.4% [3] - The average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing an increase to 1.24 yuan, a rise of 11.0% year-on-year [4] - The average cost per package decreased to approximately 0.68 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [4] Operational Insights - ZTO Express aims to achieve a business volume of approximately 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces in 2025, targeting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on service quality, business volume, and profit as its three main priorities for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery industry, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.58%, 12.81%, and 14.73% [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on ZTO's strong market position and expected steady growth in volume and profit [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's strong market position, with a leading market share of approximately 19.4% in the express delivery sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5% [3][5] - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2][4] - ZTO Express is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected business volume for 2025 estimated between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 44.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, with a quarterly performance in Q4 showing a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [2][4] - The company’s single-piece express revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 1.20 yuan, with Q4 showing a more significant increase of 11.0% to 1.24 yuan [3][4] Operational Metrics - ZTO Express handled 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [3][5] - The company’s single-piece express cost decreased by 6.0% year-on-year to approximately 0.68 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [4] - The adjusted net profit per single piece remained stable at 0.30 yuan for the year, with Q4 showing an increase of 11.2% to 0.28 yuan [4] Market Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with an estimated industry volume growth of 10-15% in 2025 [7] - ZTO Express is well-positioned to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by its scale and management advantages [8] - The report anticipates that ZTO Express will achieve adjusted net profits of 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue growth of 15.3% year-on-year to RMB 44.28 billion for 2024, with a net profit of RMB 10.08 billion, reflecting a 12.0% increase [1][2]. - The company aims to refocus on volume and market share growth in 2025, expecting a volume increase of 20%-24%, which is above the industry growth rate [3][4]. - The company is likely to lower prices to gain market share, which may slow profit growth in the short term, but is expected to strengthen its market position in the long term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross profit of RMB 13.72 billion, with a gross margin of 31.0% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 10.08 billion, with a profit margin of 22.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package increased by 2.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.28, while the average cost per package rose by 1.9% to RMB 0.87 [2]. Market Position - ZTO Express handled 34 billion packages in 2024, marking a 12.6% increase, but its market share declined to 19.4%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year due to the abandonment of low-value packages [1][3]. - The company has seen a recovery in market share since Q3 2024 as it adjusts its operational strategies [1]. Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 8.2% to RMB 9.85 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.23 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 197.6 and USD 25.4, based on a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [4].