Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the travel demand is expected to increase significantly during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a search volume increase of over 20% year-on-year [1] - Flight bookings for both domestic and international routes show a notable recovery, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 3.26 million per day, up 26% year-on-year, and international bookings exceeding 1.16 million, up 15% [2] - High-quality hotel bookings are experiencing a surge, with a year-on-year increase of 58% for popular hotels and over 20% for high-quality hotels during the holiday period [3] Group 2 - The outbound travel market is benefiting from visa-free policies, with significant increases in travel to South Korea, the Middle East, and Africa, with outbound travel numbers up 130% year-on-year [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on OTA sectors such as Tongcheng Travel and Trip.com Group, as well as companies in the ice and snow industry like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya, and tourism retail companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with new stores planned in key locations in the United States and Brazil, indicating a strategic shift beyond Southeast Asia [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Expansion Strategy - The company is preparing to open its first store in the United States in Manhattan, New York, and its first store in Brazil in the Shopping Cidade São Paulo, both located in prime commercial areas [1]. - The expansion strategy has shifted from focusing solely on Southeast Asia to exploring multiple regions, including Central Asia, North America, and South America, to better understand market priorities and challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Potential - There is a significant growth opportunity for the company in overseas markets, particularly in Central Asia, North America, and South America, where there is a lack of mature tea supply despite a strong demand for tea products [3]. - The regions targeted for expansion are experiencing a demographic shift with a growing young population, which is expected to drive demand for tea products [3]. Group 3: Profitability Factors - The potential for profitability in overseas expansion will depend on two key factors: pricing strategies that affect per-cup profitability and competitive pricing, and the establishment of a robust supply chain that will influence the speed of store expansion and profit realization [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with new stores planned in the U.S. and Brazil, indicating a strategic shift beyond Southeast Asia [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Expansion Strategy - The company is preparing to open its first store in the U.S. in Manhattan, New York, and its first store in Brazil in the Shopping Cidade São Paulo, both located in prime commercial areas [1]. - The expansion strategy has shifted from focusing solely on Southeast Asia to exploring multiple regions, including Central Asia, North America, and South America, to better understand market priorities and challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Potential - There is a significant growth opportunity for the company in overseas markets, particularly in Central Asia, North America, and South America, where there is a lack of mature tea supply despite a strong demand for tea products [3]. - The regions targeted for expansion are experiencing a demographic shift with a growing young population, which is expected to drive demand for tea products [3]. Group 3: Profitability Factors - The potential for profitability in overseas expansion will depend on two key factors: pricing strategies that affect profit margins and competitive positioning, and the efficiency of supply chain development that influences store expansion and profit realization [4].

据智通财经，蜜雪冰城一家位于北京丰台万达广场门店的工作人员称："最近一段时间，有些门店柠檬水缺货，但有些门店有，有时候需要抢货，如果抢 不上的话，就没有了。" 此外，多家广州、苏州地区蜜雪冰城门店店员确认近一周柠檬断货，目前跟柠檬相关的饮品如柠檬水、柠檬奶等都无法制作。 据了解，近日部分门店原料波动，源于近期一批进口柠檬受天气影响延期到港。 每经编辑｜金冥羽 据红星资本局，近日，因主要原料黄柠檬短缺，多地蜜雪冰城的冰鲜柠檬水断货。 据悉，冰鲜柠檬水是蜜雪冰城的明星大单品。9月17日，上海一家蜜雪冰城的店员表示，从上周日开始，店里就订不到黄柠檬片了，目前店里没有冰鲜柠 檬水，暂不清楚何时可以补货。 四川地区的蜜雪冰城门店表示，目前店里没有冰鲜柠檬水，因为"最近公司供货供不上，我们这边都断货了。"同时，该店员表示，不清楚什么时候能再恢 复供货。 据蜜雪冰城微信号，其冰鲜柠檬水一年卖超10亿杯，被蜜雪冰城称为"镇店之宝"。按4元/杯的售价计算，这款产品年销售额40亿元，相当于蜜雪集团2025 年上半年收入的13%。 编辑|金冥羽 易启江 校对|陈柯名 同时，蜜雪冰城主要柠檬供给地——川渝地区的柠檬已经进入采摘期，因 ...

Company Overview - The company, established for 28 years, is a leading fresh beverage enterprise with two brands: "Mixue Ice City" and "Lucky Coffee," and has incubated the "Snow King" IP. It primarily generates revenue through a franchise model, selling store materials and equipment to franchisees. By the end of 2024, the total number of stores is expected to reach 46,479, with stable performance growth and improving profitability, ranking first in China and second globally in terms of cup output [1] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale end-to-end supply chain system, which includes global procurement networks, long-term partnerships with upstream suppliers, and cooperative planting bases to control supply costs and ensure quality. It operates five production bases and over 60 intelligent production lines, along with a self-operated warehousing and distribution system, with 54% of fundraising allocated to enhancing the supply chain in China [1] Industry Analysis - Emerging and affordable markets are experiencing faster growth. The Chinese and Southeast Asian markets show significant growth potential. In the domestic market, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the affordable market is projected to be 22.2% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing mid-priced and high-priced markets, aligning with the company's development positioning and indicating substantial growth potential [1] Future Growth Points - Future growth point one: "Mixue Ice City" is expected to densify its domestic market. Mid-term projections suggest an expansion potential of 11,000 to 18,000 additional stores based on three scenarios (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic) [2] - Future growth point two: "Lucky Coffee" is set to expand through franchising. By June 2025, provinces like Henan (1,127 stores), Hebei (413 stores), and Shandong (411 stores) are expected to see a potential increase of 9,000 to 17,000 stores, considering only store density improvements [2] - Future growth point three: The Southeast Asian market is anticipated to continue expanding, with a projected CAGR of 19.8% from 2023 to 2028. The market is highly fragmented with low chain rates, and "Mixue Ice City" is the largest fresh tea beverage brand in Southeast Asia. 12% of fundraising is allocated to enhancing the overseas supply chain to support international business expansion [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 32.694 billion, 37.823 billion, and 43.037 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 15.7%, and 13.8% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5.861 billion, 6.781 billion, and 7.716 billion, with growth rates of 32.1%, 15.7%, and 13.8%. Corresponding PE valuations are 24x, 20.7x, and 18.2x, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy-A" [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading beverage enterprise with a strong market position, operating under the brands "Mixue Ice City" and "Lucky Coffee," and has a significant expansion plan through a franchise model [4][5]. - The company has a robust supply chain system that serves as a competitive barrier, ensuring cost control and quality assurance [4][69]. - Future growth opportunities include expanding the "Mixue Ice City" brand domestically, increasing franchise locations for "Lucky Coffee," and expanding into Southeast Asian markets [5][6]. Company Overview - The company has been established for 28 years and has achieved a stable growth trajectory, with a total of 46,479 stores by the end of 2024, making it the largest beverage company in terms of cup output in China and the second largest globally [4][38]. - The business model focuses on franchising, with over 99% of stores being independently operated franchises, generating significant revenue from product sales [29][30]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the rapid growth of the affordable beverage market, particularly in emerging markets like China and Southeast Asia, where the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [5][6]. - The company’s supply chain is described as the largest in the Chinese beverage industry, providing a competitive edge through vertical integration and digitalization [69][71]. Future Growth Points - The company anticipates significant expansion potential for "Mixue Ice City" with an estimated 11,000 to 18,000 new stores possible [5]. - For "Lucky Coffee," there is a projected expansion of approximately 9,000 to 17,000 new stores based on regional density adjustments [5]. - The Southeast Asian beverage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% from 2023 to 2028, presenting a substantial opportunity for the company [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 32.694 billion, 37.823 billion, and 43.037 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 15.7%, and 13.8% respectively [6][8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.861 billion, 6.781 billion, and 7.716 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 32.1%, 15.7%, and 13.8% [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][11][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main reasons for optimism regarding the company's future growth: 1) The competitive landscape of the ready-to-drink tea industry, where brands rely heavily on external IP collaborations for customer acquisition, while the company leverages its proprietary "Snow King" IP to break through traffic barriers; 2) The company's supply chain achieves end-to-end control, creating a strong competitive moat that enables extreme cost optimization, product standardization, and stable, efficient operations; 3) The growth potential of the company, with the brand showing dual-driven potential for domestic and international expansion, focusing on a "high-quality and affordable" strategy domestically and localizing research and supply chain centers abroad to replicate the Chinese model [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates two core brands, Mixue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, focusing on a "high-quality and affordable" product philosophy, targeting the mass consumer market. It has established a strong supply chain system, with over 60% of beverage ingredients produced in-house and 100% of core ingredients sourced internally. The company primarily generates revenue by selling raw materials, equipment, and services to franchisees [8][20][35]. Market Potential - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with China and Southeast Asia showing the most potential. The ready-to-drink tea market in China has formed a multi-tiered consumption structure, with affordable and mass-market products leading the industry. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth through its pricing strategy and market penetration [9][60][70]. Competitive Advantages - The company's "Snow King" IP creates a unique traffic barrier, while its industrial-grade supply chain supports its high-quality and affordable strategy. This supply chain allows the company to maintain low pricing while ensuring quality and profitability for franchisees. The company has a strong market penetration capability, particularly in lower-tier cities, transforming occasional consumption into a daily necessity [10][49][70]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 57.12 billion, 68.17 billion, and 76.51 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027. The report emphasizes the company's strong revenue growth driven by store expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.86% in revenue and 32.44% in net profit from 2021 to 2024 [4][11][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [1][2] - The company's store network continues to expand, with a total of 53,014 stores as of mid-2025, representing a net increase of 6,535 stores compared to the end of 2024 [3][4] - The company is focusing on both domestic and overseas markets, with strategies tailored to different regions, including aggressive expansion in the domestic market and optimization of existing stores in Southeast Asia [3][4] Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in 25H1 was driven by the expansion of the store network and an increase in average store sales, with the average single-store contribution to sales reaching 278,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales, equipment sales, and franchise-related services contributing 13.84 billion, 650 million, and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.5%, 42.3%, and 29.8% [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities, while also expanding the "Lucky Coffee" brand, which has seen a significant increase in store numbers [3][4] - The operational strategy for the domestic market focuses on steady expansion and improving store operational quality, while the overseas strategy emphasizes deepening market presence in Southeast Asia [4] Profitability - The gross margin for 25H1 was 31.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3% [5] - The company maintains a stable cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining relatively unchanged [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 32.81 billion, 37.40 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, 14.0%, and 14.5% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 5.81 billion, 6.67 billion, and 7.69 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.9%, 14.8%, and 15.3% [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the industry, leading restaurant companies are showing signs of recovery in revenue and net profit [1][3][5] - Among 29 listed restaurant companies, 17 reported year-on-year revenue growth, with Gu Ming leading at a growth rate of 41.26% [3][5] - The overall trend shows an increase in profitable companies, with notable improvements in profitability for several firms [5][6][7] Group 2 - The challenges include a weak consumer environment, policies like alcohol bans, and competition from food delivery services, which necessitate exploration of new growth avenues [2][10][11] - Companies like Da Shi and Wei Qian have shown significant profit increases, with Da Shi's net profit growing by 504.4% year-on-year [6][7] - Some companies, such as Dao Xiang Holdings and Tang Gong China, have transitioned from profit to loss due to various market pressures [10][11] Group 3 - The restaurant industry is experiencing uneven recovery, with some segments like casual dining performing better than traditional high-end dining [11][12] - Fast food brands are generally faring well, with companies like Da Shi and Ba Bi Food achieving revenue and profit growth [12][13] - The trend of closing underperforming stores is evident, as companies aim to enhance operational efficiency [13][22] Group 4 - The shift towards delivery services is becoming increasingly important, with companies like Nai Xue's Tea reporting that nearly half of their revenue comes from delivery [32][36] - Traditional dining establishments are also adapting by exploring delivery options and new business models to remain competitive [39][40] - Many companies are diversifying their offerings by launching sub-brands and entering new markets, such as coffee and light meals [41][44][46]

Core Insights - The current state of the ready-to-drink tea industry shows significant revenue growth among major players, with Mixue Group leading the market with a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [3][6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying due to aggressive subsidy wars initiated by delivery platforms, impacting various brands differently [7][9] - The overall performance of the industry is mixed, with some brands like Nayuki experiencing a decline in revenue, while others like Mixue and Gu Ming continue to grow [4][6] Revenue and Growth - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, up 39.3%, with a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 44.1% increase [6] - Gu Ming achieved a revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 119.8% [6] - Bawang Tea Ji generated 6.725 billion yuan in revenue, a 21.61% increase, with a net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, up 6.8% [6] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a surge in store openings, with the top five brands adding nearly 9,000 new stores in the first half of the year [3] - Nayuki is the only major brand to report a revenue decline, with a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, down 14.4% [4][6] - The competitive environment is characterized by a price war, with some brands opting out of aggressive discounting strategies [7][10] Strategic Responses - Brands are diversifying their offerings, with many entering the ready-to-drink coffee market as a new growth avenue [16][18] - Mixue's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, aims to expand to over 10,000 stores, with significant investments in the coffee supply chain [16] - Gu Ming has equipped over 8,000 stores with coffee machines to enhance its coffee product offerings [17] International Expansion - The overseas expansion of brands is accelerating, with Bawang Tea Ji opening 39 new stores abroad in the second quarter [19] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming crowded, prompting brands like Mixue to optimize existing stores [20] - North America is emerging as a new battleground for Chinese tea brands, with Bawang Tea Ji and others making significant inroads [21]