Summary of the Conference Call for Mixue Group Company Overview - **Company**: Mixue Group - **Industry**: Tea Beverage Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first half of the year, Mixue benefited from the competitive delivery market, achieving a revenue growth of 39% and a profit growth of 44%. The strong cash inflow from operations supports long-term development [3][4][10]. 2. **Store Expansion**: The company is expected to reach nearly 40,000 stores by 2025, with potential for further expansion. The brand can open between 46,000 to 48,000 stores under a single brand [2][6][7]. 3. **Valuation**: The current valuation of Mixue is approximately 27 times earnings, with expectations of a decrease to around 25 times next year due to a projected 10% growth rate [2][5][11]. 4. **Market Environment**: The tea beverage industry is experiencing a high growth rate, with leading companies' valuations adjusting to a range of 20-25 times. Mixue's performance remains strong despite potential negative same-store sales growth next year due to high base effects [5][8]. 5. **Profitability**: Even with a modest revenue growth of 10%, profits could increase by 10%-20% due to sufficient production capacity and potential margin improvements [2][6][10]. 6. **Expansion Potential**: Mixue has not reached its expansion ceiling and can introduce new products like snacks and IP derivatives to leverage its existing store network [2][7][13]. 7. **International Expansion**: The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, successfully entering the Central Asian market and preparing to enter the Americas, supported by a strong supply chain [4][12][13]. 8. **Long-term Growth**: Mixue is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of at least 20% over the next three to five years, with a strong industry position and pricing power [10][11]. 9. **Market Dynamics**: The tea beverage market shows performance differentiation among brands, with Mixue and Gu Ming benefiting from centralized procurement and brand strength [4][14][17]. 10. **Future Outlook**: The company is well-positioned for future growth, with significant opportunities in untapped markets such as rural areas and tourist attractions [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Management**: The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points, while the expense ratio remained stable or increased marginally [3]. - **Franchise Dynamics**: The willingness of franchisees to join and the company's collaborative value proposition with franchisees are critical for sustained growth [15][16]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Other brands in the tea beverage sector may have lower valuations but could see growth if they introduce market-demanding products [17]. - **Impact of Luckin Coffee**: The return of Luckin Coffee to the Hong Kong market may enhance its visibility and liquidity, potentially affecting the competitive landscape [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance and global expansion strategy of Mixue Group, emphasizing its strong market position in the ready-to-drink beverage sector and its innovative approach to internationalization [5][6][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Mixue Group reported revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, with a gross profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 38.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.1% [5]. - The company maintains a competitive pricing strategy, with products priced around 6 yuan, solidifying its position as the "king of affordable ready-to-drink beverages" in China [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - Mixue Group leads the domestic ready-to-drink beverage market and has successfully expanded into international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it holds a market share of 19.5% in the ready-to-drink tea segment as of 2023 [7][8]. - By June 30, 2025, Mixue Group is expected to surpass Starbucks in total store count, with over 53,000 global stores, including 4,733 overseas locations [7][10]. Group 3: Globalization Strategy - The company has adopted a unique globalization strategy, focusing on strong supply chain management, the popular "Snow King" IP, and localized operations to enhance its international presence [12][21]. - Mixue Group has established a comprehensive supply chain that includes procurement, production, logistics, and quality control, allowing for cost advantages and product quality stability [13][14]. Group 4: Brand and Marketing - The "Snow King" IP has become a significant cultural symbol, contributing to brand recognition and customer loyalty, with over 54.2 billion views on Douyin [18][19]. - The company has effectively utilized its supply chain and IP to create a distinctive brand identity, which has been instrumental in its marketing efforts [19][33]. Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 19.8% from 2023 to 2028 in Southeast Asia [8]. - Mixue Group's successful experience in the beverage sector has laid the groundwork for its coffee brand, "Lucky Coffee," which is also expanding internationally [29][31].

Core Insights - Many listed restaurant companies have seen growth in their takeaway revenue during the first half of the year [2] - The increase in takeaway sales has led to higher operational costs, particularly related to delivery services [3][4] Group 1: Takeaway Revenue Growth - Yum China reported that takeaway sales accounted for approximately 45% of its restaurant revenue in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 7% [2] - In the same period, takeaway sales for KFC represented 45% of its revenue, while for Pizza Hut, it was 43%, with year-on-year increases of 7% and 5% respectively [2] - Green Tea Group's takeaway revenue reached 524 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 74.2% increase year-on-year, making up 22.9% of total revenue [2] - Small Garden's dine-in revenue was 1.647 billion yuan, growing by 2.2%, while takeaway revenue was 1.0574 billion yuan, up 13.7%, with takeaway accounting for 39% of total revenue [2] Group 2: Cost Increases and Operational Challenges - Green Tea's takeaway business expenses were 87.5 million yuan in the first half of the year, a 75.9% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising fees for third-party delivery platforms [2] - Yum China noted that the increase in takeaway sales has raised rider costs, with employee benefits accounting for 27.2% of sales, up 0.9% year-on-year [3] - Executives from various companies expressed caution regarding the aggressive competition in the takeaway market, emphasizing the importance of maintaining dine-in services [4] - The surge in takeaway orders has led to increased pressure on store staff, affecting service quality and customer experience [4]

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 14.875 billion and a year-on-year growth of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.693 billion, reflecting a 42.9% increase [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong sales in the beverage segment, particularly benefiting from the takeout market, with raw material revenue growth supported by increased cup volume and accelerated store openings [1] - The company maintained good cost control, with a gross margin of 31.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; the selling expense ratio remained stable at 6.1%, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9% [1][2] Store Expansion - The company accelerated its store openings, surpassing 53,000 global stores, with a net increase of 6,535 stores in the first half of 2025, including 6,697 new stores domestically and a decrease of 162 overseas [1] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the domestic and overseas store counts were 48,281 and 4,733, respectively [1][2] Market Distribution - The distribution of domestic stores as of the first half of 2025 was as follows: first-tier cities 4.9%, new first-tier cities 18.4%, second-tier cities 19.1%, and third-tier and below 57.6%, with slight year-on-year changes [2] - The company opened 7,721 new franchise stores and closed 1,187, with both opening and closing rates increasing compared to the first half of 2024 [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on steady domestic growth while accelerating overseas market adjustments and expansions, particularly in Southeast Asia, with successful entry into the Central Asian market by opening its first store in Kazakhstan [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 5.953 billion, 6.436 billion, and 7.183 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in merchandise sales and store expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.69 billion yuan, with a growth of 42.9% [1] - Gross margin stood at 31.6%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin improved to 18.1%, up by 0.5 percentage points [2] Business Segmentation - Merchandise sales accounted for 93.1% of total revenue, with a growth of 39.5% to 13.84 billion yuan [1] - Equipment sales contributed 4.4% of revenue, growing by 42.3% to 650 million yuan [1] - Franchise service revenue was 3.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 29.8%, making up 2.6% of total revenue [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 53,014, with 52,996 being franchise stores and 18 direct-operated stores [1] - The company added 7,721 franchise stores and closed 1,187, resulting in a net increase of 6,534 franchise stores [1] - The company is focusing on improving operational quality in Southeast Asia while continuing to expand in domestic markets [1] Geographic Distribution - The number of stores in mainland China and outside mainland China was 48,281 and 4,733, respectively, with net increases of 6,697 and a closure of 162 stores [1] - The company is exploring entry into Central Asia and the Americas while maintaining steady growth in Malaysia and Thailand [1] Market Dynamics - The company anticipates double-digit growth in same-store GMV, with new store openings contributing approximately 23.2% to revenue growth [2] - The company has launched 32 new products under the sub-brand Lucky Coffee, which has seen significant sales growth [3]

机构：中金公司 研究员：林思婕/陈文博/赖晟炜/方云朋 1H25 业绩略超出我们预期 公司H1 营收同比+39.3%至148.7 亿元，归母净利润同比+42.9%至26.9亿元，归母净利润率同比+0.5ppt 至18.1%。业绩略超出我们预期，主因单店收入增速超预期。公司H1 门店净增6,535 家至53,014 家（中 国内地门店净增6,697 家至48,281 家，内地以外门店净减少162 家至4,733 家；加盟店新开7,721 家、关 闭1,187 家）。1H25 毛利率同比-0.2ppt 至31.6%（其中商品和设备销售的毛利率同比-0.2ppt 至 30.3%），销售费用率同比持平至6.1%，行政开支费用率同比+0.3ppt 至2.9%。 发展趋势 我们认为虽然外卖补贴导致明年同店有下滑压力、回归稳态，但明年仍有望凭借稳健拓店及对盈利能力 较强掌控度实现双位数业绩增长。我们上调 25-26 年归母净利润预测9%/4%至59.3/67.4 亿元。当前股价 对应25-26 年27/23x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级。考虑今年外卖补贴带来明年高基数压力，维持目标价555 港元，对应25/26 年33/28 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong financial performance of the company, with a revenue of 14.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 39% and 44% respectively [1] - The net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3%, exceeding expectations primarily due to a higher-than-expected number of new store openings [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 from 5.2 billion yuan to 5.6 billion yuan, maintaining forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 6.2 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - The total number of global stores has surpassed 53,000, with a net addition of 9,796 stores in the first half of the year, including 9,668 in mainland China and 128 overseas [1] - The company is expanding steadily in overseas markets, with daily sales in Southeast Asia showing positive year-on-year growth and ongoing operational optimizations in Indonesia and Vietnam [2] - The Lucky Coffee brand complements the company's existing offerings, focusing on freshly ground coffee, while the main brand's coffee serves as a supplement to its tea menu [2] Group 3 - The company is preparing to enter the East and West coasts of the U.S., as well as Mexico and Brazil, initially adopting a direct sales model and transitioning to a franchise model in the medium term [2] - The rating for the company has been upgraded from "Overweight" to "Buy," reflecting confidence in its high cost-performance positioning and the robust supply chain it has built [2] - The company has signed over 10 stores in Kazakhstan, marking its entry into the Central Asian market [2]

Core Insights - In H1 2025, Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, with product and equipment sales contributing 14.495 billion yuan, up 39.6%, and franchise and related service income at 380 million yuan, up 29.8% [1] - The net profit for H1 2025 reached 2.718 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.1% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved a significant revenue increase driven by both product sales and franchise services, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [1] - The net profit growth outpaced revenue growth, suggesting improved cost management and operational leverage [1] Store Expansion Strategy - As of H1 2025, the total number of stores reached 53,014, with 52,996 being franchise stores; the number of stores in mainland China was 48,281, with a net increase of 6,697 stores year-to-date [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its "Mixue Ice City" brand in lower-tier markets while optimizing operations in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 31.64%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs and changes in revenue structure [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.27%, indicating enhanced profitability despite challenges in gross margin [2] Future Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 5.425 billion yuan, 6.586 billion yuan, and 7.670 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.28%, 21.40%, and 16.46% respectively [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 31.24, 25.73, and 22.09 for the respective years, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip and Mxue Group, while upgrading Mxue Group's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP operating profit of 4.7 billion yuan and a non-GAAP operating margin of 31%, exceeding expectations due to lower marketing expenses [2][7]. - Mxue Group's H1 2025 revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44%, driven by higher-than-expected store openings [2][8]. - Gu Ming's H1 2025 revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% year-on-year increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49%, attributed to higher store count and single-store revenue [3][9]. Summary by Sections Ctrip - Q2 2025 revenue increased by 16% to 14.9 billion yuan, with accommodation booking revenue up 21%, transportation revenue up 11%, and group travel revenue up 5% [2][7]. - International OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [2][7]. - The company has fully utilized its $400 million share buyback authorization and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion [2][7]. Mxue Group - H1 2025 revenue was 14.9 billion yuan, a 39% increase, with net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 44% [2][8]. - The company is expanding in Southeast Asia, with daily sales growth in Indonesia and Vietnam, and plans for new stores in the U.S. and Latin America [2][8]. - The Lucky Coffee brand complements Mxue's offerings, focusing on freshly ground coffee, enhancing supply chain advantages [2][8]. Gu Ming - H1 2025 revenue reached 5.7 billion yuan, a 41% increase, with adjusted core profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 49% [3][9]. - The company added 1,265 new stores, bringing the total to 11,179, with a significant increase in stores in lower-tier cities [3][9]. - The average daily GMV per store grew by 21% to 7,600 yuan, benefiting from substantial takeout subsidies [3][9]. Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies - Xinda Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.953 billion yuan, a 50.6% increase, with net profit turning positive at 834 million yuan [4][13]. - Kangfang Biologics achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a 37.8% increase, but reported a net loss of 588 million yuan [4][13]. - Rongchang Biologics reported H1 2025 revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, a 47.6% increase, with a reduced net loss of 450 million yuan [4][13]. Overseas Pharmaceutical Companies - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 obesity drug trial showed significant weight loss results, with the 36mg group achieving a 10.5% average weight reduction [5][16]. - BioArctic partnered with Novartis to develop a new CNS drug, receiving an upfront payment of $30 million [5][16]. - Regeneron announced positive results for its MG drug in a Phase III trial, achieving key endpoints [5][16].

证券研究报告 蜜雪集团 (2097 HK) 港股通 1H 高质量快步增长，龙头强者恒强 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 目标价 (港币) | 590.22 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 8 月 28 日) | 435.00 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 165,134 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 317.85 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 256.00-618.50 | | BVPS (人民币) | 55.98 | 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 590.22 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 zengjun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 股价走势图 (14) 41 95 150 204 Mar-25 May-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 (%) 蜜雪集团 ...