智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，重申贝壳-W(02423)"跑赢大市"评级，但将H股目标价由56港元下 调至46港元，此调整基于采用2026年预期每股盈利计算的23倍前瞻市盈率。 报告中称，贝壳2025年第三季非公认会计原则(non-GAAP)净利润胜预期10%。尽管2025年第四季及 2026年营收展望弱过预期，但相应的利润率指引仍优于市场所担忧情况。该行认为目前股价水平呈现出 具吸引力的战术性买入机会。另将2025至2027年每股盈利预期下调19至37%，以反映2025年第四季及 2026年交易总额增长弱于预期的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beike-W (02423), is a leading real estate brokerage with scale effects and management advantages, actively expanding into diversified businesses such as home decoration and rental services. However, the company faces short-term performance pressure due to a continuously stabilizing real estate market, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while adjusted net profit was 1.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% [2]. - The total transaction volume remained stable at 736.7 billion yuan, showing no significant year-on-year change. Revenue increased, but profit margins declined, with gross margin at 21.4% (down from 22.7% YoY) and net margin at 3.2% (down from 5.2% YoY) [3]. Group 2: Business Segments - The home decoration and rental services segments achieved profitability at the city level for two consecutive quarters. In Q3, the home decoration business generated revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, contributing a profit margin of 32.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The rental service managed over 660,000 units, generating revenue of 5.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, with a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 3: AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency in rental services, with AI-driven organization and resource management leading to a 13% increase in efficiency for property acquisition. Additionally, AI-enabled management and targeted marketing have resulted in annual savings exceeding 100 million yuan [5]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns - In Q3, the company repurchased approximately 280 million USD worth of shares, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, marking a two-year high. The total repurchase amount for the year up to Q3 reached about 680 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, representing about 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beike-W (02423), is a leading real estate brokerage with scale effects and management advantages, actively expanding into diversified businesses such as home decoration and rental services, but faces short-term performance pressure due to a stagnant real estate market, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while adjusted net profit was 1.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% [2] - The total transaction volume remained stable at 736.7 billion yuan, with revenue growth but a decline in profit margins, resulting in a gross margin of 21.4% (down from 22.7% year-on-year) and a net margin of 3.2% (down from 5.2% year-on-year) [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The home decoration and rental services achieved profitability at the city level for two consecutive quarters, with home decoration revenue of 4.3 billion yuan and a profit margin of 32.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; rental services managed over 660,000 units, generating revenue of 5.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, with a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 3: AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency in rental services, with AI-driven organization and resource management leading to a 13% increase in efficiency for property acquisition, and AI smart management and targeted marketing saving over 100 million yuan annually [5] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - In Q3 2025, the company repurchased approximately 280 million USD worth of shares, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, marking a two-year high; the total repurchase amount for the year to date reached approximately 680 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, representing about 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [6]

Core Insights - Beike (2423.HK) saw a 3.97% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 43.98 during trading [1] - For Q3 2025, Beike reported revenue of CNY 23.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The company's NON-GAAP net profit was CNY 1.29 billion, while the total transaction value (GTV) remained stable at CNY 736.7 billion compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - Beike's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, indicating the company is on the right track [1] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to 7% next year, driven by a nearly CNY 2 billion reduction in agent and store costs year-on-year [1] - Non-transaction service business has shown continuous profitability for two consecutive quarters, with expected contributions of CNY 800 million and CNY 1.3 billion in profits over the next two years [1] Market Outlook - Citigroup raised Beike's H-share target price from HKD 61.4 to HKD 63, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company's growth is supported by advancements in artificial intelligence, innovation, and ecosystem development [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The brokerage business remains robust, and the profitability of emerging businesses is improving. The company has a strong platform barrier and is enhancing its brokerage framework while securing housing resources [7] - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to a noticeable decline in transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets, which may impact brokerage revenue [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates revised to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan - 2025E: 94.606 billion yuan - 2026E: 94.464 billion yuan - 2027E: 100.799 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan - 2025E: 3.585 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.361 billion yuan - 2027E: 6.371 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.04 yuan - 2026E: 1.55 yuan - 2027E: 1.84 yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 231 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while adjusted net profit was 12.86 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [7] - The total transaction volume remained stable at 736.7 billion yuan, but the decline in profit margins led to a decrease in net profit, with gross margin dropping to 21.4% from 22.7% in the same period last year [7] - The home decoration and rental services segments achieved profitability at the city level for two consecutive quarters, with home decoration revenue of 4.3 billion yuan and a profit margin of 32.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has increased shareholder returns, spending approximately 280 million USD on share buybacks in Q3, a 38.3% increase year-on-year, marking a two-year high [7] - The company is actively expanding its diversified businesses, including home decoration and rental services, despite facing short-term performance pressure due to a sluggish real estate market [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 77.777 billion yuan in 2023, 93.457 billion yuan in 2024, 97.986 billion yuan in 2025, 106.438 billion yuan in 2026, and 110.849 billion yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 28.20% in 2023 and declining to 4.14% by 2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 9.798 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 5.790 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 8.308 billion yuan in 2027 [6] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 14.08 in 2023, increasing to 23.82 in 2025, and then decreasing to 16.60 by 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for new homes and indicates a significant decline in second-hand home transactions year-on-year [2][33]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has seen a 0.2% decline in the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry sectors [9][30]. - New home transaction volume in 20 monitored cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, with a total area of 159 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 22.7 million square meters per day [21][24]. - Second-hand home transactions in 11 monitored cities also fell by 29% year-on-year, with a total area of 186 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 26.6 million square meters per day [24][29]. Industry Overview - **Basic Data**: The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,183.334 billion yuan [3]. - **Relative Index Performance**: The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -1.6%, 16.8%, and -8.9% respectively, while the relative performance is -3.3%, -5.3%, and -23.3% [4]. Policy Developments - Local policies include the implementation of "current housing sales" in Pingjiang County, Hunan, and the promotion of industrialized construction in Guangzhou, aiming for a total output value of 500 billion yuan by 2030 [14][15]. Sales Performance - The report highlights a significant drop in both new and second-hand home sales, with new home sales down 31% week-on-week and second-hand home sales down 6% week-on-week [21][24]. - Cumulative data shows that new home sales in 20 cities have decreased by 11% year-to-date, while second-hand home sales in 11 cities have increased by 7% year-to-date [21][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances in the week were by local state-owned enterprises, with Guang'an Holdings issuing the largest scale of 2 billion yuan [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product differentiation and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, highlighting firms such as Beike-W, Greentown China, and China Resources Land as potential investment opportunities [33].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Beike's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, suggesting the company is on the right track with projected net profit margin improvement to 7% next year driven by various factors [1] Financial Performance - Beike's Q3 performance surpassed expectations, with a significant reduction in agent and store costs by nearly 2 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The non-transaction service business has shown continuous profitability for two consecutive quarters, expected to contribute 800 million yuan and 1.3 billion yuan in profits over the next two years [1] - The company is projected to achieve a 14% year-on-year increase in profits to 6.5 billion yuan next year [1] Strategic Drivers - Key drivers for profit growth next year include margin and cost control [1] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence, innovation, and ecosystem development as part of its growth strategy [1] Target Price Adjustment - Citigroup has raised its target price for Beike, increasing the ADR target price from $22.1 to $22.6 and the H-share target price from HKD 61.4 to HKD 63, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - Beike Holdings reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion RMB, with total revenue of 23.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Net profit decreased by 36.1% to 747 million RMB, while adjusted net profit fell by 27.8% to 1.286 billion RMB [1] - The number of active stores reached 59,012, up 25.9% year-on-year, and the number of active agents increased by 11.4% to 471,501 [1] Business Segments Existing Home Business - The GTV for the existing home business reached 505.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - The implementation of the "tenant separation" mechanism in Shanghai improved agents' property maintenance and marketing capabilities, increasing the property turnover rate from 2.6% to over 3% [1] New Home Business - The GTV for new home business grew approximately 11% year-on-year, with Q3 GTV reaching 196.3 billion RMB [1] - A new light operation model product "B+" is being piloted in four cities, with plans to expand to over 30 cities by the end of 2025 [1] Rental Services - The number of managed rental properties exceeded 660,000, generating revenue of 5.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 45.3% [2] - The profit margin for rental services reached 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, with profitability achieved at the city level for two consecutive quarters [2] Home Decoration and Furnishing - The net income from the home decoration and furnishing business was 4.3 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 32%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The business achieved profitability at the city level for two consecutive quarters [2] Research and Development - Beike increased its R&D investment, totaling 1.865 billion RMB, with Q3 R&D expenses at 648 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - AI technology has been further integrated into core business processes, driving efficiency improvements [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423.HK) shares rose over 3% following its earnings report, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's performance [1] Group 1 - The stock price increased by 3.07%, reaching HKD 43.6 [1] - The trading volume was HKD 146 million at the time of reporting [1]