中金发表报告指，华润饮料上半年业绩符合该行预期，收入62.06亿元，按年下跌18.5%，净利润8.05亿 元，按年跌28.6%。业绩符合此前预告。 该行预计，下半年公司丰富产品矩阵、深化渠道变革的调整有望延续，认为短期调整是为长期发展蓄 力。该行预计进入饮料旺季后公司经营状况有所改善，7至8月包装水及饮料销量或均实现按年增长。考 虑渠道竞争持续激烈，预计下半年公司或将保持渠道及终端费用的高投入，以稳固市场份额。 考虑行业竞争加剧，该行下调华润饮料2025/2026年盈利预测18%/2%至10.9/15.3亿元，下调目标价29% 至12港元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 華潤飲料（控股）有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02460 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 100,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0000005 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 100,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0000005 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Resources Beverage will continue to push for channel reform, advance investments in new channels and products, and increase market share in packaged water in the second half of the year. This strategy may pressure short-term profits but is expected to achieve sustainable growth and business diversification in the long term [1] Financial Projections - The bank forecasts net profits of 1.08 billion yuan and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a 27% year-on-year rebound in 2026 due to sales recovery, leverage effects, and normalization of investment scale [1] - For the second half of this year, the bank estimates a net profit of 261 million yuan, a 48% year-on-year decline, attributed to increased upfront investments during the traditional off-season [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for the company has been revised down from 12.1 HKD to 10.5 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 805 million yuan, down 28.6% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Packaging Water Business - The packaging water business is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, with revenue declining 23.1% year-on-year to 5.25 billion yuan [2]. - Factors contributing to the decline include increased promotional competition, channel reform adjustments, and operational rhythm impacts from 1H24 [2]. - Despite the overall decline, the company's retail sales growth in packaging water outperformed the industry, with market share increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 19.3% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Beverage Business - Beverage revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year to 950 million yuan, driven by a focus on tea, juice, and sports drinks, and the introduction of 14 new SKUs in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is responding to consumer trends by implementing a large packaging strategy to alleviate price competition pressures [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Profitability - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.7%, primarily due to the underperformance of the packaging water business, while the beverage segment saw an improvement in gross margin [2]. - Selling expenses increased by 2.9 percentage points to 30.4% due to higher marketing and channel expenses to address intensified competition [2]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 13%, indicating pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue adjustments in product matrix and channel reforms in the second half of the year, which are seen as preparations for long-term growth [3]. - An improvement in operational conditions is anticipated during the beverage peak season, with expectations of year-on-year growth in both packaging water and beverage sales in July and August [3]. - Profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 18% and 2% to 1.09 billion yuan and 1.53 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price reduction of 29% to 12 HKD [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that China Resources Beverage's sales and profit margins in the first half of the year were negatively impacted by increased market investment and channel adjustments, with continued pressure expected in the second half due to ongoing marketing investments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The sales volume of bottled water has shown a gradual recovery to positive year-on-year growth during July and August [1] - The estimated net profit for China Resources Beverage in 2025 is projected to decline by 34% year-on-year to 1.07 billion [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecasts for China Resources Beverage for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 10% to 20%, now estimated at 1.074 billion and 1.451 billion respectively [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 14.2 to HKD 13.7, reflecting a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for the next 12 months [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - A turning point and recovery are anticipated for the company in the following year [1] - The rating for China Resources Beverage is maintained at "outperform the market" [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 805 million yuan, down 28.63% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, a decline of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.118 yuan per share on October 24, based on the shareholder register as of September 9 [1] Group 2 - The packaging water business faced pressure, with revenue of 5.25 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 23.1%, accounting for 84.6% of total revenue, down 5.1 percentage points [1] - The beverage segment showed growth, achieving revenue of 955 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 21.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 15.4% of total revenue, up 5.1 percentage points [1] - The company launched 14 new SKU products in H1 2025, including tea and juice varieties, to enhance its product portfolio [1] Group 3 - The company experienced an increase in expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 30.36%, 2.33%, and 0.24%, respectively, reflecting a rise due to decreased scale effects [1] - The company added one new packaging water production line and two beverage cooperative production lines in H1 2025, with plans to establish two more packaging water factories in H2 [1] - The company maintains a "buy" investment recommendation, citing resilience in operations and long-term industry potential despite current challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, primarily due to intensified competition and channel adjustments in the packaging water segment, while the beverage segment showed steady growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 805 million yuan, down 28.63% [1]. - The packaging water segment generated revenue of 5.251 billion yuan, a decline of 23.11%, while the beverage segment achieved 955 million yuan, an increase of 21.28% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by reduced revenue and increased sales expenses [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The packaging water business faced challenges with revenue from small, medium, and large-sized water products declining by 26.2%, 19.4%, and 1.5% respectively [1]. - The beverage business focused on product series such as "Benqingrun," "Moli Water," and "Honey Water," benefiting from nationwide distribution and targeted marketing efforts [1]. Group 3: Operational Adjustments - The company is addressing external competition by optimizing inventory and increasing investments to maintain market share, while also expanding the SKU range for packaging water [3]. - New beverage products were launched in H1, including "Benqingrun Stewed Pear Flavor" and upgraded "Moli Water," indicating a commitment to innovation [3]. - Production efficiency improvements are underway, with new production lines expected to enhance capacity and operational performance [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite current pressures, the long-term growth logic remains intact, with a recommendation to monitor operational adjustments and production efficiency improvements [4]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.62 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively [4]. - A target price of 15 HKD is set for the next year, reflecting a PE ratio of approximately 20X for 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [3][5] Core Insights - The beer sector shows stable performance during peak season, with slight revenue decline but consistent cost benefits contributing to profits [1][9] - The soft drink sector faces intensified competition, yet leading companies continue to demonstrate strong performance [2][17] Summary by Sections Beer Sector - The beer industry achieved total revenue of 879.3 billion CNY in 25H1, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit rose by 5.9% to 152.3 billion CNY [9] - The gross margin improved to 48.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin increased to 18.7%, up 1.2 percentage points [9][15] - The revenue decline is attributed to weak overall demand and diversified consumer preferences, while profit performance remains strong due to cost reductions and structural upgrades [9][10] - Key players like Yanjing and Zhujiang outperformed in revenue and profit growth, while Budweiser Asia faced challenges due to weak channel performance [9][10] Soft Drink Sector - The soft drink industry reported total revenue of 226.4 billion CNY in 25H1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, with net profit increasing by 1.7% to 39.5 billion CNY [17] - The gross margin for the sector was 41.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while net margin decreased to 17.5%, down 1.0 percentage points [17][22] - Despite fierce competition, leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Quanyuan maintained strong growth, while other companies experienced varying degrees of decline [17][18] - In 25Q2, the soft drink sector saw revenue rise to 107.1 billion CNY, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, but profit margins were pressured due to increased competition and spending [18][20] Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong single products and distribution channels, highlighting high-growth leaders and stable dividend or undervalued stocks [5][6]

Group 1: Company Performance - China Resources Beverage reported a revenue decline of 18.52% year-on-year to 6.206 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit drop of 28.63% to 805 million yuan [2] - The revenue from packaged drinking water and beverages was 5.251 billion yuan and 955 million yuan respectively, with a decline of 23.11% in water revenue and a growth of 21.28% in beverage revenue [2] - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.67%, impacted by a significant revenue drop and an increased proportion of lower-margin beverages [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall beverage market in China is still in a growth cycle, with a 4.7% increase in the domestic beverage market across all channels as of June this year [3] - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue increase of 15.6% year-on-year to 25.622 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with its packaged water sales growing by 10.7% to 9.44 billion yuan [3] - The performance disparity between Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage indicates an intensifying competition in the beverage market [4]

Summary of China Resources Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beverage - **Period**: First half of 2025 Key Financial Performance - **Net Revenue**: Increased by 21.3% year-on-year to CNY 6.206 billion [2][3] - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 28.7% year-on-year to CNY 0.823 billion, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: Decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.7% [2][3] - **Sales Cost**: Decreased by 14.3% year-on-year to CNY 3.309 billion [3] Industry and Market Dynamics - **Packaging Water Revenue**: Decreased by 23.1% due to industry consumption slowdown, changes in terminal formats, and intensified market competition [3][8] - **Beverage Revenue**: Increased by 21.3%, attributed to brand building, channel distribution, and new product launches [3][8] Strategic Initiatives Product Development - **New Products**: Launched 14 new SKUs across four categories, including large packaging water and pocket-sized drinks [2][5] - **Sustainability**: Developing de-plasticized packaging products to reduce carbon footprint [5] Marketing and Branding - **Sports Marketing**: Collaborated with the Chinese national team and major sports events to enhance brand visibility [7][15] - **Promotional Activities**: Engaged in various marketing campaigns, including partnerships with sports champions and themed events [7][15] Channel Optimization - **Sales Strategy**: Combined online sales, community services, and direct visits to increase consumer purchase rates [10] - **Distributor Model**: Shifted to a specialized distributor model, increasing the number of exclusive distributors by over 50% [10][21] Operational Efficiencies Cost Reduction - **Production and Logistics**: Implemented measures to enhance self-sourcing rates and optimize supply chain management, leading to significant cost savings [12] - **Capacity Expansion**: Planned to increase self-built capacity to over 60% by the end of 2025, with new factories in operation [11][17] Future Outlook - **Packaging Water**: Expected gradual recovery in sales growth in the second half of 2025, with increased channel investments [8][16] - **Beverage Business**: Plans to add three new beverage production lines by 2026 to further enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness [9][19] Challenges and Responses - **Market Competition**: Addressed challenges from intensified competition and profit pressure through promotional adjustments and resource allocation [12][20] - **Inventory Management**: Increased channel inventory to prepare for peak demand seasons, with expectations of normalization as demand stabilizes [18] Conclusion - **Long-term Strategy**: Focused on sustainable growth through product innovation, enhanced marketing efforts, and optimized distribution channels to navigate a competitive landscape [20][22]