国泰海通发布研报称，维持农夫山泉(09633)25-27年EPS为1.35/1.62/1.91元，给予35倍PE(25E)，目标价 51.92港元/股(港元兑人民币0.91汇率计算)，维持"增持"评级。考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及聚酯 瓶片有利价格，继续看好25H2业绩良好表现。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 饮料的主要原材料以聚酯瓶片为主，从价格走势来看，参照wind，25H2(截止12/17)聚酯瓶片价格同比 下滑11.24%，环比下滑3.73%。因此该行预计持续下行的聚酯瓶片价格走势将有利于公司下半年的毛利 率表现。此外考虑到24年下半年巴黎奥运会期间公司东方树叶产品的品牌宣传活动带来的一次性销售费 用增加，而25年下半年公司没有相关大的品宣营销活动投入，因此该行对下半年盈利表现继续保持良好 信心。 新关联交易金额上限增速体现部分产品良好需求潜力 2025年12月17日公司披露《重续持续关联交易》公告。公司向养生堂集团采购部分瓶盖(例如尖叫)、养 生堂集团产品、以及部分水果原料、饮品原料并构成关联交易。参照公告，26-28年最新采购框架协议 中的上限金额分别为4.345/5.285/6.295亿元，若以2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持农夫山泉(09633)25-27年EPS为1.35/1.62/1.91元，给予35 倍PE(25E)，目标价51.92港元/股(港元兑人民币0.91汇率计算)，维持"增持"评级。考虑到旺季旺销，低 基数效应，以及聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好25H2业绩良好表现。 新关联交易金额上限增速体现部分产品良好需求潜力 2025年12月17日公司披露《重续持续关联交易》公告。公司向养生堂集团采购部分瓶盖(例如尖叫)、养 生堂集团产品、以及部分水果原料、饮品原料并构成关联交易。参照公告，26-28年最新采购框架协议 中的上限金额分别为4.345/5.285/6.295亿元，若以25年前10个月实际发生的3.228亿元关联交易额进行计 算，则26-28年关联交易额上限同比增速为34.60%/21.63%/19.11%。该行认为公司关联交易金额的良好 增速亦反映出公司下游部分产品未来旺盛需求的潜力。 饮料旺季集中在Q3且一般呈现旺季旺销特点，因此从22年以及23年历史业绩来看，公司下半年收入同 比增速均较上半年加速(24年由于网络事件影响导致销售节奏异常，不具备参考意义)。此外25H ...

Core Insights - The report by Guotai Junan highlights the advantages of IP fun food over IP toys, including lower price points and higher consumption frequency [1][2] Industry Growth - The Chinese IP food market is projected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2% [3] - The market for IP fun food is expected to increase from 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 19.6% [3] Consumer Demand - The growth in the IP fun food sector is driven by the emotional consumption trends among the younger generation, who seek identity recognition and emotional connection through IP stories and characters [3] - The supply side benefits from China's mature snack production and supply chain, which has been bolstered by the rise of bulk purchasing channels [3] Competitive Landscape - The core competitive advantage in the IP fun food industry lies in supply chain management and IP operation [4] - The differentiation of IP fun food products is primarily achieved through the inclusion of IP toy giveaways, which allow for higher pricing despite the low differentiation of the snacks themselves [4] - The market remains fragmented, with the leading company, Jintian Animation, holding a market share of 7.6% as of 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has launched the upgraded version of its AI-native intelligent APP, Lingxi APP 2.0, which aims to transform the wealth management industry by providing a comprehensive AI interaction experience and a full lifecycle companion service [1][2]. Group 1: Product Features - Lingxi APP 2.0 integrates a one-stop interface for monitoring, trading, dialogue, and live streaming, embedding AI capabilities throughout the investment decision-making process [2]. - The app introduces six different persona-based intelligent investment assistants that provide 24/7 companion services, marking a significant upgrade from a "tool" to a "partner" in investment [2]. - It features a dual-layout trading interface that balances user operation habits and trading efficiency, allowing for natural language queries and advanced trading functionalities [2]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - Guotai Junan is committed to its "All in AI" strategy, focusing on optimizing asset allocation for residents and leading a dual reconstruction in wealth management [1][3]. - The company collaborates with various AI platforms to expand service scenarios, promoting a shift towards intelligent, scenario-based, and ecological services [3]. - Guotai Junan aims to convert AI applications into tangible benefits for users, contributing to the high-quality development of the industry [3].

Group 1 - The total trading volume on the Longhu list has exceeded 60 trillion yuan, marking a growth of over 65% compared to the entire year of 2024, and setting a new historical record since the 2015 bull market [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Caifu Securities maintains its leading position with 7 branches in the top 100, achieving a total trading volume of 5119.37 billion yuan, with Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Branch ranking first at 1233.75 billion yuan [3] - Guotai Haitong Securities has the highest number of branches in the top 100, with 13 branches totaling 4099.43 billion yuan, and the Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road branch notably rising from 559th to 13th place [3] - Foreign securities firms have seen significant ranking improvements, with UBS Shanghai Huayuan Shiqiao Road branch moving from 69th to 9th, and Goldman Sachs (China) Shanghai Pudong New District Century Avenue branch rising from 19th to 10th [3] - Smaller securities firms are also active, with Kaiyuan Securities Xi'an Xida Street branch jumping from 27th to 4th place, increasing its trading volume nearly eightfold [3] - Hualin Securities Beijing branch made a remarkable leap from 2588th to 28th place, improving its ranking by over 2500 positions [3] Group 3 - The advantages of internet branches continue to be evident, with Guosen Securities Zhejiang Internet branch's trading volume surging by 300% compared to the entire year of 2024, now ranking 11th on the Longhu list [4]

12月18日，兆易创新涨5.06%，截至发稿，报212.41元/股，成交31.29亿元，换手率2.23%，总市值 1418.58亿元。 资料显示，兆易创新科技集团股份有限公司位于北京市海淀区丰豪东路9号院中关村集成电路设计园8号 楼,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1期19楼1915室，成立日期2005年4月6日，上市日期2016年8月18日，公 司主营业务涉及集成电路存储芯片的研发、销售和技术支持。主营业务收入构成为：存储芯片 68.55%，微控制器23.11%，传感器4.65%，模拟产品3.67%，技术服务收入及其他收入0.02%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 国泰海通中证A500指数增强A（022467）基金经理为胡崇海。 截至发稿，胡崇海累计任职时间4年5天，现任基金资产总规模136.84亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 64.94%， 任职期间最差基金回报-0.17%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓兆易 ...

智通财经APP获悉，财政部公布数据，2025年1—11月证券交易印花税1855亿元 同比增长70.7%。 银河证券认为，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标将持续定调证券板块未来走向，流 动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共同推动证券板块景气 度上行。当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展现出"健康牛"态势，财 富管理转型、国际业务拓展、金融科技赋能均有望成为行业提升ROE驱动力。当前板块估值处于历史低 位，防御反弹攻守兼备。建议关注综合实力强劲的头部券商，以及在财管、自营、跨境等业务领域具备 差异化竞争优势的券商。 中信建投研报称，证券方面，2026年政策利好驱动业绩持续增长，板块有望重新定价。2025年证券行业 进入新一轮增长周期，但券商股票因缺少独立催化、前两年悲观情绪的延续等原因而导致超额收益不 佳。当前"服务新质生产力+中长期资金入市+券商国际化机遇"三大核心利好逻辑尚未被市场充分定 价，其驱动的投行、资管、国际业务等新动能，有望在2026年后逐步兑现至行业基本面，为中长期业绩 弹性与韧性提供坚实支撑，无需担忧增长断层。 日前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has launched the upgraded version of its AI-native investment app, Lingxi APP 2.0, which aims to enhance user experience through full AI interaction and lifecycle support, marking a significant evolution in the brokerage industry's intelligent service model [1][17]. Group 1: AI Interaction and User Experience - Lingxi APP 2.0 features an integrated interface for monitoring, trading, dialogue, and live streaming, allowing AI services to be deeply embedded in the investment decision-making process [2]. - The app introduces six different AI investment assistants with various personas, providing 24/7 support and transforming AI from a tool into a partner for users [2][5]. Group 2: Advanced Dialogue and Understanding - The app's dialogue system has advanced to provide professional companionship throughout the investment journey, integrating vast financial databases and real-time market data [5]. - It utilizes a memory intelligence system to accurately capture user preferences and trading habits, enhancing the AI's ability to understand user needs [5][11]. Group 3: Comprehensive Investment Support - Lingxi APP 2.0 offers a full-cycle AI service that supports users before, during, and after investments, enhancing long-term investment success rates [11]. - The app combines market analysis with personal diagnostics and strategy tracking, providing a one-stop investment decision-making engine [11]. Group 4: Innovative Trading Features - The app introduces a dual-layout trading interface that improves user experience and efficiency, allowing for quick access to key information without navigating away [13]. - Users can execute trades using natural language commands, enhancing responsiveness and precision in a dynamic market environment [13]. Group 5: Ecosystem and Future Development - Guotai Junan is committed to an "open securities" philosophy, collaborating with various AI platforms to expand service scenarios and enhance user experience [16]. - The transition from version 1.0 to 2.0 has resulted in significant improvements, including a 135% increase in service scenario replacement rate and a 105% increase in the accuracy of AI responses [16].

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：王宇晴、梁中华 投资要点 11月美国就业市场或仍处于逐步放缓的紧平衡状态。一方面，虽然11月新增就业人数略超预期，但新增就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均仍呈回 落态势；另一方面，失业率超预期回升，边缘就业人群压力加大。但失业率的上行并未恶化到衰退概率显著增加的程度，美联储或仍有时间与空间选择暂 停降息。 11月非农：新增就业小幅回升。美国11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人。不过，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，主要受特朗普延期 辞职计划中员工集中结束任职影响，为一次性冲击。相比之下，私人部门新增就业水平总体维持稳健，但可能存在一定高估，后续或有下修风险。总体来 看，虽然11月新增非农就业人数看似超预期，但新增就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均水平持续回落，美国就业市场或仍处于放缓趋势。 失业率上行：需要担心吗？11月美国失业率回升0.2个百分点至4.6%，略高于市场预期的4.5%。不过，失业率的上升或主要受劳动参与率回升的影响，永 久失业人数的占比反而有所下降，一定程度上稀释了失业率上升的严重性。但U6失业率的大幅上升仍值得关注（8. ...

专题：美国11月非农就业人数增长超出预期 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美国就业：延续放缓——2025年11月美国非农数据点评（国泰海通宏观 王宇晴、梁中华） 来源：梁中华宏观研究 重要提示：《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施，通过本微信订阅号发布的 观点和信息仅供国泰海通证券的专业投资者参考，完整的投资观点应以国泰海通证券研究所发布的完整 报告为准。若您并非国泰海通证券客户中的专业投资者，为控制投资风险，请取消订阅、接收或使用本 订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 王宇晴 S0880525040119 梁中华 S0880525040019 ·投资要点 · 11月美国就业市场或仍处于逐步放缓的紧平衡状态。一方面，虽然11月新增就业人数略超预期，但新增 就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均仍呈回落态势；另一方面，失业率超预期回升，边缘就业人 群压力加大。但失业率的上行并未恶化到衰退概率显著增加的程度，美联储或仍有 ...