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国泰海通:反内卷或助力淡季减亏 建议逆向增持航空长逻辑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 22:54
2)因私需求较为旺盛。暑运亲子游与文旅展会旺盛,儿童与青年旅客占比明显提升。8月下旬客流仍维 持高位,高客座率倒逼裸票价回升并高于2024年同期低基数。 3)公商需求意外走弱,致临近收舱票价明显回落。观察此次公商需求回落较为陡峭,推测或为阶段性影 响。考虑9月初重大活动及10月重大会议影响,预计9月中下旬公商需求或将明显恢复,建议重点关注 11-12月公商务需求恢复持续性。 4)旺季大额盈利仍将可期。暑运航油价格同比下降近13%,估算扣油票价同比持平且客流增长,大额盈 利可期。 淡季展望:预计换季继续严控时刻,反内卷或助力淡季减亏。 中国民航空域瓶颈凸显且持续,过去数个航季中国民航局均严控时刻。中国民航将于2025年10月底换 季,该行预计局方将继续严控时刻增长,特别是协调机场时刻总量或继续保持稳定。考虑2025年机队低 速增长且周转提升空间有限,预计淡季国内供给将继续低速增长。2024Q4价格战或致航司明显亏损, 预计反内卷短期有望管控过度低价,中期有望政策引导航司干线市场收益管理改善。该行预计2025Q4 淡季航司将继续大幅减亏,2025全年将行业性扭亏为盈。 国泰海通发布研报称,重视航空长逻辑,建议逆向 ...
调研速递|深南电路接受国泰海通等超百家机构调研 业绩与产能亮点突出
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 15:42
Core Viewpoint - The recent investor relations activity of Shenzhen Sannuo Circuit Co., Ltd. attracted over a hundred institutions, focusing on the company's operational performance, business segment development, and capacity construction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 10.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.360 billion yuan, up 37.75% year-on-year [2] - The growth was driven by opportunities in AI computing power upgrades, a recovery in the storage market, and the growth of electric and intelligent vehicles [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The PCB business generated revenue of 6.274 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.21%, with a gross margin of 34.42%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points [2] - The packaging substrate business reported revenue of 1.740 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.03%, but with a gross margin of 15.15%, down 10.31 percentage points due to product structure adjustments and initial cost increases [2] Group 3: Capacity and Projects - The first phase of the Guangzhou packaging substrate project is set to begin mass production in Q4 2023, with ongoing development for higher-layer products [3] - The Thailand project, with a total investment of 1.274 billion yuan, has commenced trial production and will enhance the company's capabilities in high-layer and HDI PCB technologies [3] - The overall capacity utilization rate remains high, driven by demand in AI computing and automotive electronics, while the packaging substrate business has seen a significant increase in utilization due to growth in the storage sector [3] Group 4: Research and Development - In the first half of 2025, the company invested approximately 672 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 6.43% of revenue, with various projects progressing smoothly [3] - New capacity construction for PCB is expected to come online in Q4 2023, alongside ongoing technological upgrades to existing facilities [3]
国泰海通:国内智算加速布局 国产算力需求高企
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 08:47
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aims to improve the policy system for computing power layout and optimize the infrastructure layout to guide local intelligent computing facilities [1][2] - As of June 2025, China has 10.85 million standard racks in use for computing power centers, with an intelligent computing scale of 788 EFLOPS [2] - The integration of the national supercomputing internet and seven city computing centers has been successfully established, with over 30 backbone node computing centers connected [3] Group 2 - The official launch of the China Computing Power Platform includes the first batch of ten provinces and cities, such as Shanxi, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [3] - The initiatives are expected to accelerate the construction of local intelligent computing centers and drive the demand for domestic computing chips [2][3] - The integration of the computing power platform and the construction of an integrated computing network are anticipated to promote the development of the domestic AI industry [3]
中宠股份股价连续5天下跌累计跌幅5.75%,国泰海通资管旗下1只基金持1.03万股,浮亏损失3.72万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 07:23
8月27日,中宠股份跌1.09%,截至发稿,报59.14元/股,成交5.57亿元,换手率3.08%,总市值180.01亿 元。中宠股份股价已经连续5天下跌,区间累计跌幅5.75%。 资料显示,烟台中宠食品股份有限公司位于山东省烟台市莱山区飞龙路88号,成立日期2002年1月18 日,上市日期2017年8月21日,公司主营业务涉及主要从事犬用及猫用宠物食品的研发、生产和销售。 主营业务收入构成为:宠物零食62.89%,宠物主粮32.21%,宠物用品及其他4.90%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示,国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓中宠股份。国泰君安价值精选混合发起A(016382)二季度 减持1.23万股,持有股数1.03万股,占基金净值比例为4.58%,位居第二大重仓股。根据测算,今日浮 亏损失约6695元。连续5天下跌期间浮亏损失3.72万元。 国泰君安价值精选混合发起A(016382)成立日期2022年8月9日,最新规模925.76万。今年以来收益 5.23%,同类排名5740/8210;近一年收益17.18%,同类排名5059/7952;成立以来亏损4.99%。 国泰君安价值精选混合发起A(016382)基 ...
国泰海通:DeepSeek~V3.1加强智能体支持 与国产AI芯片协同创新
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 04:46
国泰海通发布研报称,DeepSeek V3.1在多项指标上性能大幅领先R1-0528,加强了智能体支持,独创性 使用UE8M0 FP8 Scale精度,与国产AI芯片协同创新。DeepSeek-V3.1加强了智能体支持,并且针对下一 代国产AI芯片设计;该行维持计算机板块"增持"评级。 国泰海通主要观点如下: DeepSeek-V3.1发布包含三大升级 ①编程智能体,在代码修复测评SWE与命令行终端环境下的复杂任务(Terminal-Bench)测试中, DeepSeek-V3.1相比之前的DeepSeek系列模型有明显提高。②搜索智能体,DeepSeek-V3.1在多项搜索评 测指标上取得了较大提升。在需要多步推理的复杂搜索测试(browsecomp)与多学科专家级难题测试 (HLE)上,DeepSeek-V3.1性能已大幅领先R1-0528。③思考效率提升,测试结果显示,经过思维链压缩 训练后,V3.1-Think在输出token数减少20%-50%的情况下,各项任务的平均表现与R1-0528持平。同 时,V3.1在非思考模式下的输出长度也得到了有效控制,相比于DeepSeek-V3-0324,能够在输出 ...
国泰海通:权益自营是券商板块重要选股思路 预计投资意义上的高弹性标的仍将不多
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 03:41
智通财经APP获悉,国泰海通发布研报称,当前券商主动权益蓄势,逐步走向适度弹性,但认为投资意 义上的高弹性标的仍将不多,需要股东方、管理层和执行部门形成合力。从权益自营弹性维度,推荐东 方证券(03958)、兴业证券(601377.SH),关注相关标的长江证券(000783.SZ)、长城证券(002939.SZ)。 1)从过去10年看,券商自营的发展呈现出"固收持续扩张,权益增长停滞"的现象。以自营类资产/净资本 净资本指标倒推,2015-2024年固收自营规模从9081亿元提升至4.5万亿元,而权益自营则从4497亿元下 滑至3992亿元(推算当前权益自营占投资资产比重仅8%),并且模式逐步向"OCI+多策略+主动权益"迭 代,实际上主动权益收缩比例更高。究其原因,除了外部市场环境波动、券商去方向化转型外,"短周 期的绝对收益考核"也是机制上的重要约束。2)当前该行观察到券商主动权益正在逐步蓄势,比如8月19 日中银证券董事会审议通过《关于提升权益类自营业务规模上限的议案》,提升权益自营授权。但该行 认为,券商主动权益的未来发展更趋向于从有限弹性走向适度弹性。虽然外部市场环境明显改善,但短 周期考核的机制约 ...
国泰海通:固态电池未来或为下一代电池 正负极往高电压高比容量方向发展
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 02:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that solid-state batteries exhibit superior energy density and safety compared to liquid batteries, positioning them as the next generation of lithium batteries [1] - The main electrolyte options for solid-state batteries include oxides, polymers, halides, and sulfides, with sulfides being the primary choice for all-solid-state batteries [1] - The positive electrode is evolving towards high voltage and high specific capacity, initially utilizing high nickel ternary materials, and later transitioning to lithium-rich manganese-based and ultra-high nickel materials [1] Group 2 - The theoretical specific capacity of lithium-rich manganese-based (LMR) materials can reach 320mAh/g, with a voltage platform of 3.7V to 4.6V, significantly surpassing traditional ternary and lithium iron phosphate materials [1] - The cost of raw materials for lithium-rich manganese-based materials is approximately 15-20% lower than that of ternary materials, with watt-hour costs approaching those of lithium iron phosphate [1] Group 3 - For the negative electrode, silicon-carbon composites are currently favored, while lithium metal is expected to become the mainstream material after energy densities exceed 400Wh/kg [2] - The theoretical specific capacity of lithium metal (3860mAh/g) is substantially higher than that of traditional graphite electrodes (372mAh/g), contributing to enhanced energy density [2] Group 4 - The development of current collectors is focused on porous copper foils and nickel-based collectors, which are compatible with solid-state battery systems [3] - Porous copper foils help suppress lithium dendrite growth, enhancing the safety and cycle life of solid-state batteries [3] - Nickel-based and stainless steel current collectors are considered suitable alternatives to address the corrosion of copper foils by sulfides [3]
基金分红:国泰君安安弘六个月定开债券基金9月1日分红
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 01:48
本次分红对象为权益登记日登记在册的本基金所有份额持有人,权益登记日为8月28日,现金红利发放 日为9月1日。选择红利再投资方式的投资者所转换的基金份额将以2025年8月28日基金份额净值为计算 基准确定再投资份额,红利再投资所转换的基金份额将于2025年8月29日直接划入其基金账户,2025年9 月1日起投资者可以查询。根据财政部、国家税务总局的财税字[2002]128号《财政部、国家税务总局关 于开放式证券投资基金有关税收问题的通知》,基金向投资者分配的基金收益,暂免征收所得税。本基 金本次分红免收分红手续费。选择红利再投资方式的投资者其红利所转换的基金份额免收申购费用。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成 投资建议。 证券之星消息,8月27日发布《国泰君安安弘六个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金分红公告》。2025年 第二次分红。公告显示,本次分红的收益分配基准日为8月8日,详细分红方案如下: | 分级基金简称 代码 | 電准日電金净值 | 分红方案 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元) | ( ...
淳中科技午后跳水跌停 国泰海通上海江苏路营业部净卖出7264.56万元
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-26 09:09
Group 1 - The stock of Chunz中科技 (603516) dropped by 10.00% today [1] - The trading volume reached 1.54 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.67% [1] - Post-market data indicates that the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect sold 18.699 million yuan, while Guotai Junan Securities' Shanghai Changning District branch net sold 72.6456 million yuan [1][1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities' Shanghai branch net sold 27.893 million yuan [1]
国泰海通:宠物健康引发关注 国产品牌创新力整体更强
智通财经网· 2025-08-26 08:34
Core Insights - The pet industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the upcoming Asia Pet Expo in 2025 expected to set new scale records. The focus on "precise segmentation" and "efficacy" in pet food products is becoming increasingly important [1][2] - There is a notable shift in pet brand innovation from merely pleasing pet owners to prioritizing pet health, with Chinese brands showing stronger overall innovation capabilities compared to their counterparts in the US and Japan [1][2] Industry Trends - The proportion of pet owners from the post-2000 generation is rising, with their share increasing from 10.1% in 2023 to 25.6% in 2024. This demographic is expected to drive growth in the pet industry, as they seek emotional support from pets at a low cost [3] - Average annual spending per pet is projected to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 3% for dogs and 4.9% for cats in 2024. Despite the growth in pet spending in China, it remains significantly lower than in the US and Japan, where spending is 4-6 times higher [3] Market Structure - The pet food industry in China is still in a fragmented stage, with leading brands like MaiFuDi and Royal Canin holding single-digit market shares. The market is expected to trend towards consolidation as brand loyalty increases due to the separation of buyers and users [4] - The demand for pet healthcare is rapidly increasing, driven by the aging of pets and advancements in medical technology and equipment. Pet owners are showing a greater willingness to seek veterinary care, leading to higher average costs for pet medical treatment [5]