Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that as the mid-term dividend timing approaches for banks, there is an opportunity for the sector to catch up if market styles become more balanced. The bank expects cumulative revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks to grow by 0.4% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, showing an improvement from the mid-year report [1]. Revenue Analysis - The net interest income and commission income are expected to continue improving, with year-on-year growth rates recovering further compared to the mid-year report. However, other non-interest income is likely to face a significant decline due to bond market volatility and high base effects, potentially leading to a double-digit negative growth in a single quarter, which may slightly drag down the cumulative revenue growth for the first three quarters [1]. - The growth rate of interest-earning assets is expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% after peaking in Q2 2025. The new RMB loans added by financial institutions in Q3 2025 are projected to be 1.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of 920 billion yuan year-on-year, leading to a slowdown in growth for listed banks [2]. Profitability Insights - The asset quality remains stable, and credit costs are expected to decline, smoothing out profit fluctuations. The banks are likely to maintain a prudent operating style, with excess provisions made in the first half of the year to prepare for uncertainties. As the economy stabilizes in the second half, the space for reducing provisions will gradually be released, leading to a sequential increase in net profit growth throughout the year [3]. - The report anticipates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will remain stable compared to the mid-year report, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio. The credit cost is expected to decline year-on-year by approximately 4 basis points to 0.40% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that Smoore International (06969) has shown an upward trend in industry prosperity in Q3, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for the company, with expected net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%; excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Business Growth - The OEM and proprietary brand revenues both experienced growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with significant increases in HNB and vaping businesses [2] - In the HNB segment, the company supported strategic customers in global market expansion, resulting in a substantial increase in product shipments [2] - In the vaping segment, the company assisted more clients in launching new compliant electronic vaping products due to increased regulatory scrutiny in major global markets [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The traditional vaping business is expected to benefit from changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential increase in market share under compliant operations [3] - The new Glo Hilo product in the HNB segment has received positive feedback, with the company aiding clients in nationwide product promotion in Japan by September 2025 and plans to expand into more core markets in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company has developed multiple technology platforms to address various user pain points, and collaborative efforts to accelerate commercialization are ongoing, indicating a clear growth path for the business [3]

1. Report Date - The report is dated October 21, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,344.05, up 1.45%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 233,073 lots, an increase of 4,790 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 355,302 lots, an increase of 965 lots [4][5]. - The main contract of IM rose 1.83% to close at 7,182.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 161.25 points, up 18.73 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -13.66% [4][5]. 2.2 Main Seats - For IM2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 48,051 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 28,707 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 37,720 lots [18]. - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 [20][21] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,607.87, up 1.53%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 122,466 lots, an increase of 10,179 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 258,766 lots, an increase of 1,315 lots [22][23]. - The main contract of IF rose 1.63% to close at 4,577.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 30.27 points, up 1.15 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -4.02% [22][23]. 3.2 Main Seats - For IF2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,720 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 7,304 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 9,135 lots [36]. - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 [38][40] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,185.62, up 1.64%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 145,647 lots, an increase of 10,814 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 249,076 lots, an increase of 5,860 lots [42][43]. - The main contract of IC rose 2.08% to close at 7,052.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 132.82 points, up 27.62 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -11.46% [42][43]. 4.2 Main Seats - For IC2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,116 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 8,912 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 11,728 lots [60]. - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 [61][62] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,007.26, up 1.09%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 53,433 lots, an increase of 814 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 91,308 lots, an increase of 1,416 lots [64]. - The main contract of IH rose 1.19% to close at 3,004.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 2.46 points, up 2 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.5% [64][65]. 5.2 Main Seats - For IH2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,638 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 2,534 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 3,122 lots [75]. - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 [73][77]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has officially entered a new bull market starting from January 2024, marking the sixth complete bull-bear cycle since 2003 [2] Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Analysis - Historical small pullbacks in the Hong Kong stock market typically begin after profit-taking following market rallies, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) averaging a decline of 7% over 11 trading days [1] - In contrast, significant pullbacks during market downturns have seen the HSI average a decline of 17% over 53 trading days, often triggered by tightening liquidity or substantial negative shocks [4] - The average maximum decline during small pullbacks in bull markets is approximately 6.5% for the HSI and 8.8% for the Hang Seng Tech Index, with most small pullbacks lasting no more than 30 trading days [3] Group 2: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The recent adjustment in the Hong Kong market has shown significant declines and durations close to historical averages, suggesting that short-term disturbances do not alter the mid-term upward trend [1][5] - Positive signals such as the easing of US-China relations and proactive domestic policies are expected to support the market, with the technology sector remaining a key focus [5] - The optimism surrounding AI developments and the return of internet sector narratives are expected to enhance the overall performance of the Hong Kong market [5] - The potential for foreign capital inflow is anticipated to increase, especially with the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [5]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with a notable increase in apparent consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][3] - Despite the positive demand trends, profitability in the steel sector has declined, with significant drops in gross margins for key products, suggesting ongoing cost pressures [2] - The supply side is expected to continue its contraction, supported by government policies aimed at reducing production and promoting a balance between supply and demand [3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.7541 million tons, up by 1.2398 million tons week-on-week, with construction materials and sheet products also showing increases [1] - Total steel production was 8.5695 million tons, down by 0.0636 million tons, while total inventory decreased to 15.8226 million tons, down by 0.1846 million tons, maintaining a low level [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remained stable at 84.27%, while electric furnace operating rates increased slightly, indicating a mixed response in production capabilities [1] Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar fell to 111.6 CNY per ton, down by 34.3 CNY per ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it dropped to 21.6 CNY per ton, down by 67.6 CNY per ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies decreased to 55.41%, down by 0.87% week-on-week, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [2] Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but stable growth is anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may support overall steel demand [3] - The government has introduced policies to control production, aiming to phase out inefficient capacities and support advanced enterprises, which may lead to a quicker recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), are recommended for their competitive advantages [5] - Low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Shares (603995.SH) are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for upstream resource companies, recommending firms like Hebei Steel Resources (000923.SZ) and Erdos (600295.SH) due to their long-term advantages [5]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable screen product is expected to be released in 2026, showcasing extreme industrial design aesthetics with features such as no creases, ultra-thinness, and high durability, leading to a rapid increase in annual shipments [1][2] Group 1: Product Features and Material Usage - The use of titanium and titanium alloys is anticipated to significantly increase in foldable screens due to their high strength, corrosion resistance, and good surface texture [2] - The frame of the foldable phone must provide sufficient structural support while minimizing weight, making titanium alloy frames superior to aluminum in terms of bending resistance and lightweight properties [2] - The screen backing, which supports the flexible OLED screen, is likely to use pure titanium to balance weight, performance, and processing costs [2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Technological Advancements - The maturity of 3D printing and other forming processes is expected to enhance the penetration of titanium alloys in consumer electronics and aerospace sectors, with applications in products requiring extreme lightweight and structural strength [3] - As 3D printing technology matures, titanium alloys are projected to rapidly penetrate high-end consumer electronics such as foldable devices, AR/VR headsets, and drones [3] Group 3: Company Positioning and Market Opportunities - Domestic companies are actively positioning themselves in the titanium and titanium alloy industry chain, with Tian Gong International (subsidiary Tian Gong Co.) focusing on high-end titanium alloy wire and supplying several leading international consumer electronics companies [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the increased production of foldable devices by major clients [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The demand for titanium alloys in high-end consumer electronics, represented by Apple's foldable device, is expected to continue rising, alongside the growth of 3D printing applications [5] - Relevant investment targets include Tian Gong International (00826), Industrial Fulian (601138.SH), BYD Electronics (00285), and Jie Bang Technology (301326.SZ) [5]

Core Points - The stock of Shenzhen Taicheng Light Communication Co., Ltd. increased by 5.16% to 102.80 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.002 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 5.22%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.349 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on December 12, 2000, and listed on December 6, 2016, specializes in the research, production, and sales of optical devices, with 98.02% of its revenue coming from optical device products [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management holds a significant position in Taicheng Light, specifically the Guotai Junan CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A (015867), which reduced its holdings by 18,200 shares in the second quarter, now holding 130,600 shares, accounting for 0.88% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 34.15%, ranking 1165 out of 4218 in its category, and a one-year return of 46.53%, ranking 458 out of 3868 [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager Hu Chonghai has been in position for 3 years and 312 days, managing a total fund size of 8.512 billion CNY, with the best return during his tenure being 67.05% and the worst being -0.96% [3] - Co-manager Liu Sheng has been in position for 1 year and 62 days, managing a fund size of 1.536 billion CNY, with the best return of 78.09% and the worst return of -0.78% during his tenure [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.04% in its stock price, reaching 13.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 530 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.44%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 172.36 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on August 22, 2006, and listed on February 1, 2008, has its main business segments comprising coal business (81.03%), coal chemical business (12.48%), coal mining equipment manufacturing (6.24%), other businesses (6.00%), financial services (1.57%), and supplementary activities (0.63%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Guotai Asset Management has a significant position in China Coal Energy, specifically the Guotai Junan Dividend Quantitative Selection Mixed A Fund (021919), which held 213,700 shares, accounting for 1.73% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 147,500 CNY today [2] - The Guotai Junan Dividend Quantitative Selection Mixed A Fund was established on October 30, 2024, with a latest scale of 72.43 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 8.59%, ranking 5876 out of 8162 in its category [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of stock index futures positions, including the overall position changes and key changes in the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts on October 20, 2025 [1][5][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Overall Position Change**: On October 20, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 8,343 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 6,835 lots [5] - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,965 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 806 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,219 lots [6] - **Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,168 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,012 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,412 lots [8] IH (SSE 50) - **Overall Position Change**: On October 20, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 8,030 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 7,038 lots [12] - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,167 lots. Nanhua Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 98 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,599 lots [13] - **Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,778 lots. Everbright Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 104 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,561 lots [14] IC (CSI 500) - **Overall Position Change**: On October 20, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 3,371 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 4,998 lots [18] - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 37,773 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 210 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,972 lots [19] - **Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,092 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 135 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,814 lots [21] IM (CSI 1000) - **Overall Position Change**: On October 20, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 9,885 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 9,694 lots [25] - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 52,643 lots. Dadi Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 256 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,821 lots [26] - **Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 73,321 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 477 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,696 lots [28]

（编辑 姚尧） 证券日报网讯 10月20日晚间，国泰海通发布公告称，2025年半年度权益分派方案为A股每股现金红利 0.15元（含税），股权登记日为2025年10月27日，除权（息）日为2025年10月28日。 ...