Group 1 - The ICE dollar index has experienced a significant decline of nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since the Nixon era in 1973 [1] - Experts predict that the dollar index is likely to continue its downward trend for the next 6 to 7 years, with potential lows below 71.3 or stabilizing around 80, depending on the performance of other economies [1] - The weakening dollar is expected to lead to a "stable but rising" trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, which could attract more cross-border capital inflows and support the internationalization of the RMB [2][3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable trend of capital flowing out of the U.S., with many international stock markets outperforming U.S. markets this year, indicating a structural shift away from dollar assets [2] - The current global investment environment is characterized by uncertainty, with a focus on "de-dollarization" leading to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly in Asia [3] - The outlook for Chinese assets remains positive, supported by favorable fiscal policies and a low-interest-rate environment, which is expected to attract more capital into the stock market [3]

Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Bank and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council released the latest GBA Business Sentiment Index, indicating that businesses in the Greater Bay Area remain resilient despite the impact of U.S. tariffs following the "Liberation Day" [1][2] - Approximately 75% to 80% of businesses in the Greater Bay Area reported negative impacts from U.S. tariffs, primarily due to delays in business plans and logistics disruptions [1][2] - The overall outlook for businesses has become more cautious, with the expectation index dropping from 54.3 in Q1 to 52.0 in Q2, marking the lowest level since Q4 2022, although still above the neutral level of 50 [2] Business Impact - 41% of respondents indicated they would delay business plans due to U.S. tariffs, while 35% reported severe disruptions in logistics or customs processes [2] - 30% of businesses experienced customer loss as clients shifted to markets less affected by tariffs, and 32% planned to increase domestic sales as a common response to the tariff impacts [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has accelerated order fulfillment and production in Q2, alongside advancements in artificial intelligence [2] Economic Outlook - The cautious sentiment among Greater Bay Area businesses is attributed to unclear overall business prospects, especially regarding trade policy developments after the expiration of tariff exemptions [2] - Hong Kong's economy showed steady expansion in Q1, highlighting the significant impact of international trade and tariff policies on the local economy [2] - The largest declines in the expectation sub-indices were seen in financing scale (-5.1 points), finished goods/service prices (-4.8 points), and production/sales (-2.6 points) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].

（原标题：渣打银行展望下半年全球市场：美元走弱或推动新兴市场资产配置） 在美国经济"软着陆"的基本情境下，渣打认为股票仍有进一步上行空间，因此对股市的看好程度略超固 定收益。在固定收益方面，美元走弱预期有助于增加对新兴市场本币债的配置。渣打还预计，美国机构 按揭抵押证券的表现将持续优于发达市场投资级政府债。 针对中国市场，得益于财政政策支持及美元可能走弱，渣打看好科技、通信服务和非必需消费品行业， 并维持超配中国股票的建议。渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰表示，相较于A股，港股（H 股）更具吸引力，主要受益于更低的估值、外资回流预期及与全球市场的更高联动性。 渣打对关键资产的观点具体如下： 债券：收益率存在"拉锯战"，对美联储减息的预期抵消了对美国预算赤字的担忧。渣打将全球债券作为 投资组合核心配置，超配新兴市场本币政府债。基于估值高企及美国经济增长不确定性导致收益率溢价 扩大风险，渣打低配发达市场投资级公司债。同时，看好新兴市场亚洲本币债、未对冲外汇风险的英国 国债和美国国库抗通胀债券。 股票：渣打维持超配全球股票的建议。贸易紧张局势缓和且盈利增长稳健，尽管关税带来影响，但通胀 仍受控。渣打将亚洲（除 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年7月7日 | | 2,332,695,051 | | | 0 | | 2,332,695,051 | | 1). 購回股份 (股份購回並註銷) | ...

Macro Outlook - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released the "Global Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025," indicating that global central bank easing, a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, and a weaker dollar are favorable for risk assets, maintaining a positive outlook on global equities [1] - The bank expects a weaker dollar to benefit the euro, pound, yen, and 5-7 year U.S. dollar bonds, while upgrading emerging market local currency debt to overweight [1] Investment Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered, Zheng Zifeng, highlighted the current uncertain global investment environment, emphasizing the structural risks of "de-dollarization" and the influx of funds into emerging markets due to a weaker dollar [1] - The bank suggests that investors should diversify not only across asset classes but also geographically to maintain long-term superior returns [1] Fixed Income - Standard Chartered views the bond market as a core investment allocation, overweighting emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and risks associated with U.S. economic growth uncertainty [2] - The bank remains positive on emerging market Asian local currency bonds, UK government bonds (unhedged), and U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities [2] Equities - The bank continues to overweight global equities, citing easing trade tensions and robust earnings growth, despite the impact of tariffs [2] - Asian (excluding Japan) equities have been upgraded to overweight, driven by a weaker dollar attracting more funds into emerging markets [2] Currency Outlook - Standard Chartered anticipates a weaker dollar over the next 6 to 12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend, while the pound shows resilience [2] Commodities - In the gold market, if Middle Eastern tensions are controlled, short-term upside for gold may be limited, but it remains an important strategic hedge [3] - The bank raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,400 while maintaining a 12-month forecast of $3,500 [3] - For oil, Standard Chartered expects prices to stabilize around $65 per barrel in the next 3 to 12 months, with geopolitical risks potentially causing short-term spikes [3]

| 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已發行股份總數 | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | | | | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年7月4日 | | 2,332,695,051 | | 0 | | | 2,332,695,051 | | 1). 其他 (請註明) | | | | % | | GBP | 0 | | | 見B部 | | | | | | | | | | 變動日期 2025年 ...

Core Insights - Stablecoins serve as a "dual currency" between decentralized digital currencies and fiat currencies, offering advantages in payment convenience, privacy protection, and value stability, thus becoming a low-cost, high-efficiency payment tool [1] - The recent regulatory policies in the US and Hong Kong have initiated a new "currency war," positioning the stablecoin market as a critical battleground for maintaining US dollar hegemony and promoting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan [1] Group 1: Definition and Mechanism of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are special digital currencies issued by stablecoin developers, large e-commerce companies, and licensed financial institutions, combining the advantages of digital currencies and fiat currencies [2] - The core technology of stablecoins is based on decentralized distributed ledger technology within blockchain systems, enabling direct payment transactions without traditional banking intermediaries [2] Group 2: Types and Issuance Mechanisms of Stablecoins - The main issuance mechanisms for stablecoins include fiat currency collateralized issuance, cryptocurrency collateralized issuance, high liquidity commodity collateralized issuance, and algorithmic uncollateralized issuance, with fiat and cryptocurrency collateralized issuance accounting for over 99.8% of the market [3][4] - Fiat currency collateralized stablecoins are pegged to a single currency or a basket of fiat currencies, while cryptocurrency collateralized stablecoins use cryptocurrencies as collateral, often employing over-collateralization to mitigate market risks [3][4] Group 3: Market Value and Growth of Stablecoins - Since 2020, the stablecoin market has grown from 5 billion to 250 billion USD, with an annual growth rate exceeding 100%, and transaction volumes approaching 37 trillion USD [7] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape and Market Analysis - The regulatory frameworks in China, Hong Kong, and the US differ significantly, with China prioritizing financial sovereignty, Hong Kong focusing on market development, and the US emphasizing the control of underlying technologies to maintain dollar dominance [11][8] - The US stablecoin market is dominated by USDT and USDC, which together account for over 80% of the market share [10] Group 5: Recent Regulatory Developments - The US Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" on May 19, 2025, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to obtain licenses and maintain a 1:1 collateralization ratio with high liquidity assets [14][15] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance," effective August 1, 2025, introduces a licensing regime for stablecoin issuers, ensuring 100% reserve requirements and enhancing market transparency [16][17] Group 6: Applications in Cross-Border Payments and E-commerce - Stablecoins are positioned as a solution to the inefficiencies of traditional cross-border payment systems, significantly reducing costs and transaction times [32] - Major e-commerce giants like JD.com and Ant Group are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to enhance financial capabilities and streamline cross-border transactions [35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is centered around "Dollar Shift: Strategic Decision-Making," emphasizing the favorable conditions for risk assets due to global policy easing, a likely soft landing for the US economy, and a weakening dollar [1][4][21] - The report recommends an overweight position in global equities, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian (excluding Japan) stocks, while maintaining a positive outlook on US stocks due to strong earnings [1][4][21] - In the bond market, the report anticipates a weaker dollar and favors 5-7 year US dollar bonds, as well as an overweight position in emerging market local currency bonds, which are expected to benefit from a soft dollar and potential interest rate cuts by emerging market central banks [1][4][29] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests an increased probability of a soft landing for the US economy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, supported by loose monetary and fiscal policies [2][4][30] - Gold is highlighted as an important diversification tool, with central bank demand expected to support its price, especially when bonds may not perform well [2][30] - The report discusses various asset allocation models, multi-asset income strategies, and insights on client concerns, providing a multi-dimensional analysis of the global market [2][4][46] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dollar is expected to weaken over the next 6-12 months, benefiting the euro, yen, and pound, while the Swiss franc may remain range-bound [1][24][29] - Historical data suggests that a weak dollar typically supports stock performance, particularly for non-US equities, leading to a positive outlook for global stock markets [1][25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies, particularly in light of potential volatility and geopolitical risks [1][4][30]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 渣打集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年7月7日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前 ...