核心观点 ⚫ 考虑到宏观经济不确定性、广告货币化率提升、成本端优化及新业务减亏加速，我 盈利预测与投资建议 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------|----------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | 股价（ 2024 年 日） | 28 | 买入 | （维持） 111.1 港元 | | 目标价格 | | | 154.00 港元 | | 52 周最高价 / 最低价 | | 150/61.1 | 港元 | | 总股本 / 流通 H 股（万股） | | | 622,517/562,490 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | | | 691,616 | | 国家 / 地区 | | | 中国 | | 行业 | | | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | | 2024 年 06 | 月 29 日 | | | | | | | | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | 绝对表现 % | -6.64 | 14.77 | -12.59 | | 相对表现 % | -0.78 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 154.00 HKD [5][6][22]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached 733 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 25.0%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 690 billion CNY, primarily driven by better-than-expected core local business revenue [1][6]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2024 was 69 billion CNY, exceeding the expected 52 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 9.5%, improving from 7.5% in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q4 2023 [1][6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 27.4% year-over-year to 546 billion CNY, with adjusted operating profit of 97 billion CNY, also above the expected 84 billion CNY [1][6]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 733 billion CNY, with a 25.0% year-over-year growth, and adjusted net profit was 75 billion CNY, a net profit margin of 10.2% [1][6][21]. Core Local Business - Revenue from the core local business was 546 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 27.4% [1][6]. - The total orders for the delivery and flash purchase business reached 5.465 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.1% [1][6]. Delivery Business - The delivery business saw a significant increase in order volume, with a year-over-year growth of 24% [1][6]. - The average order value (AOV) saw a structural decline, but improved advertising monetization and optimized subsidies mitigated the negative impact on revenue [1][6]. Flash Purchase Business - Flash purchase orders grew nearly 60% year-over-year, with a significant increase in user purchase frequency and transaction numbers [1][6]. - The business is expected to continue high-speed growth in Q2 2024, driven by expanding supply categories and consumer demand for convenience [1][6]. New Business - New business revenue reached 187 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 18.5%, and operating losses narrowed to 28 billion CNY [1][6]. - The community group buying segment is focusing on operational improvements and high-quality growth, leading to a significant reduction in losses [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan, with a target price range of HKD 125-144 [136] Core Views - Meituan's local life business reorganization is expected to bring continuous optimization in operational efficiency, particularly through the integration of its home delivery, in-store, and platform businesses [2] - TikTok's local life business is facing challenges in achieving its annual GTV target, with a focus on post-cancellation GTV and profitability [9][10] - Meituan's strategy focuses on consolidating long-term competitive advantages rather than merely pursuing market share, with a shift from subsidy-driven growth to ROI-driven growth [42] Meituan's Local Life Business Progress - Meituan's local life business reorganization in early 2024 aims to integrate home delivery, in-store, and platform operations under a unified leadership, expected to enhance operational efficiency [2] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business strategy emphasizes expanding the merchant base, improving price competitiveness, and exploring low-tier cities through direct operations [34][36] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business has maintained stable market share through subsidies, with a focus on enriching product offerings and leveraging live streaming to drive impulse purchases [37][49] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business operating profit margin (OPM) declined from 48% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023 due to increased competition and subsidies, but showed a slight recovery to 31% in Q1 2024 [42][55] TikTok's Local Life Business Progress - TikTok's local life business GTV grew from RMB 77 billion in 2022 to nearly RMB 300 billion in 2023, but faces challenges in achieving its 2024 target of RMB 600 billion [9][42] - TikTok's local life business is focusing on post-cancellation GTV and profitability, with adjustments to sales compensation structures and a shift towards advertising as a key revenue driver [10] - TikTok's local life business has undergone organizational restructuring, with a focus on regional divisions to improve sales efficiency and merchant acquisition [13] - TikTok's local life business GTV growth is driven by increasing merchant coverage and category expansion, with GTV growth rates of 256% YoY in 2023, led by the hotel and travel sector [15] Competitive Landscape - Meituan and TikTok are adopting differentiated competitive strategies, with Meituan focusing on operational efficiency and TikTok leveraging its product strengths to explore new categories [42][129] - Meituan's core advantage lies in its evaluation system, which supports long-term merchant operations, while TikTok excels in short-term explosive growth through its product and marketing capabilities [81][95] - TikTok's local life business is more suitable for large KA merchants, while Meituan's strength lies in serving small and medium-sized merchants [97][101] Financial Projections - Meituan's in-store and hotel business is expected to achieve a 17% CAGR in operating profit from 2023 to 2025 under a neutral scenario [133] - Meituan's adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 36.6 billion, RMB 49.1 billion, and RMB 58.3 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19x, 14x, and 12x [136][151]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the stock, indicating that the company's stock performance is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 10% [158]. Core Insights - The report outlines the current development stage of Douyin's local life services and explores the differentiated competitive strategies between Douyin and Meituan this year [3]. - Douyin's local life service business has reached 4.5 million cooperative stores, while Meituan's active merchant count was approximately 9.3 million in 2022, growing over 60% to an estimated 14.88 million in 2023 [5][106]. - Overall, Douyin's GTV growth has been relatively weak this year, attributed not only to organizational adjustments but also to strategic decisions based on its development stage [12][166]. Summary by Sections 1. Meituan's In-store Travel Business Progress - Meituan's strategy focuses on consolidating long-term competitive advantages rather than merely pursuing market share [30]. - The company has adopted a subsidy strategy to stabilize its market share, with GTV growth of approximately 60% in Q1 2024 [34][39]. - Meituan's operating profit margin (OPM) has decreased from 48% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023 due to increased subsidies and operational costs [21][39]. 2. Douyin's Local Life Business Progress - Douyin's merchant coverage is estimated to be about 30% of Meituan's, with stable growth in restaurant merchants and ongoing development of new categories [26][144]. - The GTV growth in Douyin's local life services is driven by an increase in merchant coverage and category expansion, with a reported GMV growth of 256% in 2023 [105][86]. - Douyin's live streaming has become a new growth point for the travel industry, with significant increases in order volumes [112][129]. 3. Competitive Dynamics - The competition between Douyin and Meituan is characterized by a partial misalignment, with Douyin focusing on large chain merchants while Meituan caters to small and medium-sized businesses [51][56]. - Douyin's operational model is more suited for larger merchants due to higher costs associated with advertising and influencer marketing, while Meituan's model supports long-term operations for smaller merchants [60][77]. - Douyin is exploring differentiated new business opportunities rather than relying on price wars, with a focus on product innovation and category expansion [163][166].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 分析师声明 一般声明 特别声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------| | 投资评级声明 \n类别 说明 | | 评级 体系 | | | | | 买入 | 预期股价相对收益 20% 以上 | | | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 增持 | 预期股价相对收益 10%-20% | | 股票投资评级 | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 持有 | 预期股价相对收益 -10%-10% | | | | 卖出 | 预期股价相对收益 -10% 以下 | | | | 强于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 行业投资评级 | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 中性 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%-5% | | | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 弱于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 以下 | | --- | --- | ...

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | 股票数据 | | | T 月 ab 20 le 日 _S 收 t 盘 oc 价 k （ In 港 fo 元 ] ） | | | 周股价波动（港元） | 61.1-150.0 | | 总股本 / 流通股（亿股） | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） | 7464/6744 | [Table_AuthorInfo] 经营概况：（1）业绩：1Q24 实现收入 733 亿元，同比增 25.0%；1Q24 即时 配送交易笔数 54.6 亿单，同比增 28.1%；1Q24 经调整 EBITDA 81 亿元，截 至 2024 年 3 月 31 日，现金及现金等价物 333 亿元。 （2）运营数据：1Q24 即时配送交易笔数 54.6 亿单，同比增 28.1%。其中，① 美团闪购：配送服务及佣金的收入增长，部分被餐饮外卖及闪购业务平均客单 价下降所抵消；"闪电仓"超 7000 家，春节期间，酒水饮料、礼赠品类和日用 百货等品类的交易金额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The report highlights that Meituan's total revenue for Q1 2024 reached 732.76 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year growth of 25.0%, slightly above consensus expectations by 6.2% [9] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 74.88 billion HKD, with a year-over-year increase of 36.4%, exceeding consensus expectations by 24.8% [9] - The report anticipates that Meituan's revenue will reach 328.2 billion HKD, 377.8 billion HKD, and 434.0 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 19% and 15% [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 2024 core local business revenue was 546.26 billion HKD, up 27.4% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.8% [9] - The new business segment generated revenue of 187 billion HKD in Q1 2024, an increase of 18.5% year-over-year, with operating losses narrowing to 28 billion HKD [9][12] Business Segments - The report notes strong growth in the food delivery and instant purchase segments, with transaction volumes increasing by 28% year-over-year, reaching 5.465 billion orders [9] - Meituan is innovating based on current consumer trends, launching brand satellite stores to optimize cost structures for chain merchants and expanding the reach of its "Pinhai Fan" service [9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing its "extreme execution" in the retail sector [4][9] - The estimated reasonable stock price based on the SOTP valuation method is 152 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and slightly raises the SOTP target price from HKD 175.00 to HKD 180.00 due to improved earnings prospects [1] Core Views - The valuation for the food delivery business is set at USD 57 billion using a 15x 2024 P/E, reflecting a 60% discount compared to the industry average of 37.5x due to a smaller Total Addressable Market (TAM) [1] - The valuation for the in-store, hotel, and tourism business is set at USD 38 billion, also using a 15x 2024 P/E, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 19.2x, again due to a smaller TAM [1] - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x 2024 P/GMV, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 1.0x [17] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, food delivery revenue is expected to grow by 23% year-on-year, slightly below the 24% growth in order volume, with average order value (AOV) declining due to subdued consumer spending [5] - The adjusted EBIT for Q1 2024 is projected to be RMB 5,209 million, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase [10] - The adjusted net income for Q1 2024 is expected to be RMB 7,488 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [10] - The report forecasts total revenue growth of 18% for Q2 2024 and 19% for the full year 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.1% for Q2 2024 [16] Business Segment Insights - The new business segment's losses narrowed to RMB 2.75 billion in Q1 2024, with expectations of further reductions in losses in subsequent quarters [6] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to accelerate profit growth as competition stabilizes [5] - The food delivery and flash purchase business saw significant order volume growth, with flash purchase turning profitable in Q1 2024 due to high-margin product contributions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [15][19]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan achieved a revenue of 732.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.0%. The net profit was 53.7 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit of 74.9 billion CNY, up from 54.9 billion CNY in the same period last year [15][16]. - The core local business revenue reached 546.3 billion CNY, growing by 27.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services [16][19]. - New business revenue was 186.5 billion CNY, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in operational losses due to improved warehouse operations and marketing efficiency [16][19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2022A Revenue: 2199.5 billion CNY, 2023A Revenue: 2767.4 billion CNY, 2024E Revenue: 3186.7 billion CNY [7]. - 2022A Net Profit: -66.9 billion CNY, 2023A Net Profit: 138.6 billion CNY, 2024E Net Profit: 265.8 billion CNY [7]. - Operating Metrics: - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 52.1 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 7.1% [16]. - The gross margin improved to 35.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [16][19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the core local business and improvements in new business operations, with projected net profits of 265.8 billion CNY, 385.4 billion CNY, and 492.3 billion CNY for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [19].

美團-W（3690） 更新報告 為美團未來的利潤貢獻將會得到進一步釋放，新業務的 ROI 逐步提升，結合目前 港股互聯網企業普遍估值在 10-15 倍區間，分別給予美團外賣和到店酒旅業務 24 年扣稅利潤的 23 倍和 15 倍 PE 估值，得出 135 港元目標價，維持買入評級。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------------|-----------|-------| | 盈利摘要 \n截至12月31日止财政年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 股價表現 \n160 | | | | 总营业收入（人民币百万元） | 219,955 | 276,745 | 326,097 | 384,337 | 447,000 | 140 120 | | | | 变动(%) | 22.8% | 25.8 ...