美团-W（03690.HK） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 220,076 | 276,850 | 329,724 | 366,755 | 400,274 | | 同比 | 22.86% | 25.80% | 19.10% | 11.23% | 9.14% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -6,686 | 13,856 | 26,064 | 40,697 | 54,029 | | 同比 | - | - | 88.11% | 56.14% | 32.76% | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 2,826 | 23,284 | 33,741 | 47,189 | 59,709 | | 同比 | - | 723.99% | 44.91% ...

2024 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2024/03/22 新业务及其他：2023Q4 新业务营收同比增长 11%至 186 亿元，经 营溢利-48 亿元（2022Q4 亏损 64 亿元），经营溢利率-26% （YoY+12pct），经营亏损率改善主要得益于业务经营效率提高。1） 美团优选业务：2023 年美团优选业务规模增长低于预期、行业竞争 证券研究报告 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；消费复苏不及预期；本地生活 和零售行业竞争加剧，行业增长不及预期；美团优选等新业务 UE 改 善不及预期等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2 2024年3月22日公司发布2023Q4财报，2023Q4实现营收737亿元（YoY+23%， QoQ-4%），营业利润 18 亿元（对应 2022Q4 亏损 7 亿元），净利润 22 亿元 （对应 2022Q4 亏损 11 亿元），Non-GAAP EBITDA 37 亿元（YoY+26%， QoQ-40%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润 44 亿元（YoY+428%，QoQ-24%）。 （1）业绩总览：2023Q4 实现 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - No specific financial data or key metrics provided in the document [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific business line data or key metrics provided in the document [1] Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific market data or key metrics provided in the document [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific information on company strategy or industry competition provided in the document [1] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - No specific management commentary on the operating environment or future outlook provided in the document [1] Other Important Information - No other important information provided in the document [1] Summary of Q&A Session - No Q&A session content provided in the document [1]

核心本地商業分部的經營溢利由2022年第四季度的人民幣72億元增長至2023年同 期的人民幣80億元，經營利潤率由16.6%同比減少2.1個百分點至14.5%。經營溢 利的增加主要由於：(i)核心本地商業分部交易筆數增長，(ii)我們餐飲外賣及美團 閃購業務的單均配送相關成本下降，部分被(i)餐飲外賣及美團閃購業務的平均客 單價下降；及(ii)交易用戶激勵、推廣及廣告開支增加所抵銷。經營利潤率下降主 要是由於餐飲外賣及美團閃購業務的平均客單價下降，以及交易用戶補貼率及推 廣及廣告開支增加。 新業務分部的經營虧損由2022年第四季度的人民幣64億元收窄至2023年同期的人 民幣48億元，該分部的經營虧損率由38.2%同比收窄12.2個百分點至26.0%。經營 虧損及經營虧損率均有所改善乃主要由於我們努力改善運營效率。 應佔採用權益法列賬的投資之溢利╱（虧損） 應佔採用權益法列賬的投資之溢利╱（虧損）由2022年第四季度的虧損人民幣95.9 百萬元變為2023年同期的溢利人民幣705.5百萬元，主要由於我們的被投資方的財 務業績變動。 非國際財務報告會計準則計量： 經調整EBITDA 3,744,406 6,18 ...

Market Overview - China has nearly 400 million female consumers aged 20-60, controlling annual consumption expenditure of up to 10 trillion RMB, driving the booming "She Economy" [1] - The 38 Festival serves as a key consumption node for female consumers, with brands leveraging this period for commercial growth [1] Campaign Strategy - Meituan Waimai launched a 38 Festival campaign themed "Timely Love, Year-Round Care" in collaboration with 38 top brands to enhance female consumer experience and drive sales and brand reputation [1] - The campaign ran from March 4 to March 10, featuring a main event page and 38 super product sub-pages, offering discounts of up to 50% across categories like personal care, daily necessities, beverages, and snacks [2][3] - Meituan Waimai integrated in-app resources, live streaming, and community marketing to amplify the campaign's reach and engagement [3] Brand Collaboration - Meituan Waimai partnered with 38 renowned brands, including Unicharm, Kimberly-Clark, Ferrero, RIO, Henkel, Mondelez, Glico, Mars, Okamoto, Carlsberg, Unilever, Genki Forest, Coca-Cola, Kao, Liby, Nice, Blue Moon, PepsiCo, Nestlé, Wall's, Sensodyne, Tsingtao Beer, Johnson & Johnson, Budweiser, Yili, Haitian, Wyeth, Jingxing, Kars, Junlebao, Shanghai Jahwa, Hawley & Hazel, Lindt, Mengniu, Vinda, Totole, and Jissbon [3] - The collaboration aimed to provide year-round care for female consumers, leveraging Meituan Waimai's real-time delivery capabilities to meet immediate needs and build stronger emotional connections [3] Social Media Engagement - Meituan Waimai utilized social platforms like Weibo and Xiaohongshu to create buzz around the campaign, with a "Love Relay" initiative on Weibo and KOL-driven unboxing and giveaway events on Xiaohongshu [4][5][6] - The Xiaohongshu campaign achieved over 2.91 million impressions and 53,000 interactions, with KOLs promoting the "Love Container" giveaway to engage users and enhance brand perception [6] Innovation in Marketing - Meituan Waimai upgraded its "Super Brand Alliance" IP, transforming single-brand promotions into cross-category collaborations, redefining festival marketing with innovative content, consumer experiences, and emotional connections [7] - The campaign highlighted the potential of instant retail platforms like Meituan Waimai as a new growth avenue for brands, encouraging them to adopt innovative marketing strategies to engage consumers [7]

3月1日，由移动支付网发起的第十届“金松奖”金融科技行业评选结果正式揭晓。美团企业版凭借数字化+新场景在银行行业的最新应用成果，首次参选即在超过100份参评项目中突出重围，荣获本届“金松奖”方案/案例类重磅奖项“技术创新成果奖”。  “金松奖”是移动支付网主办的金融科技行业线上评选活动，旨在从企业、产品、方案和案例等多维度，全面展示过去一年金融科技产业创新成果。2023年度第十届“金松奖”金融科技行业评选，聚焦金融科技创新、数字人民币、支付数字化、合规科技、产业金融等领域，呈现最新应用成果。      美团企业版是适用于银行员工、银行对公/对私客户多场景的通用综合解决方案。基于美团外卖、到店、酒店、机票、买菜等优质供给，结合企业版线上管控能力，支付结算服务，提供内外部餐补福利、24小时线上餐厅，积分商城兑换、App会员体系、优惠券等多种形式，帮助内部员工、外部客户全面实现数字化用餐及管理服务。结合美团“食住行游娱购”等丰富场景、线上化管理能力、集中支付对账等一体化解决方案，打通银行内外部系统，帮助银行及背后服务客户全面实现线上、数字化订餐服务及用餐管理，充分满足银行智慧食堂及客户场景营销和活跃经营需求。 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 美团-W（03690.HK） 23Q4 业绩前瞻：预计业绩符合预期，期待 24 年柳暗花明 2024 年 02 月 25 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2021A | 2022A | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 179,128 | 220,076 | 275,477 | 327,598 | 385,759 | | 同比 | 56.04% | 22.86% | 25.17% | 18.92% | 17.75% | | 经调整归母净利润（百万元） | -15,574 | 2,826 | 21,724 | 30,037 | 43,737 | | 同比 | - | - | 668.58% | 38.27% | 45.61% | | EPS- 最新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan with a target price of **HKD 93**, implying a potential upside of **16.6%** [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's revenue is expected to grow by **17%** in 2024, driven by its strong position in the local services and food delivery sectors [1] - The company's core business is valued at **15x P/E**, with a conservative approach excluding the valuation contribution from new businesses [1] - Meituan's competitive environment is considered better than that of e-commerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, with higher user stickiness and growth potential [1][2] - The report highlights that Meituan's valuation should be between Alibaba/JD (8-10x P/E) and Pinduoduo (20x P/E) [1][13] Business Performance and Outlook Local Services and Food Delivery - Meituan's food delivery business remains stable, with a unit economics (UE) of **RMB 1.2 per order** in 2023, expected to maintain **RMB 1.15-1.2 per order** in 2024 despite AOV (Average Order Value) pressure [41][46] - The food delivery GTV (Gross Transaction Value) is projected to grow by **18%** in 2023, reaching **RMB 940 billion**, with **14%** and **12%** growth expected in 2024 and 2025, respectively [79] - Meituan's local services business is expected to grow by **35%** in GTV in 2024, with a **10%+** profit growth, despite increased competition [51][76] New Businesses - Meituan's new businesses, including community group buying, are expected to continue reducing losses, with a projected loss of **RMB 20.4 billion** in 2023, slightly higher than the initial estimate of **RMB 19.3 billion** [40][87] - The community group buying business has reached **490 million users** as of September 2023, but its contribution to the core business remains limited [87] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's market share in local services is estimated at **71%**, compared to Douyin's **21%**, with Meituan's scale being **3.4x** larger than Douyin's after considering redemption rates [76][78] - The report emphasizes that Meituan's user stickiness and merchant loyalty are stronger than Douyin's, with Douyin's local life services contributing minimally to its overall profitability [2][53] Valuation and Market Comparison - Meituan's valuation is considered reasonable at **15-20x P/E** for its core business, given its stable growth and competitive advantages [22] - The report compares Meituan's valuation with other internet platforms, noting that Meituan's PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio is below **1**, similar to Pinduoduo and Kuaishou [91] Industry Insights - The local services market is estimated to have a **RMB 10 trillion** traditional industry size, with significant growth potential as online penetration increases [76] - The report highlights that Meituan's non-standardized services and small-to-medium local merchants are less likely to be impacted by competition compared to standardized services like branded restaurants and entertainment [98]

智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研究报告称，维持美团-W(03690)“买入”评级，长期看好公司在即时配送领域的核心壁垒以及本地生活业务中的高韧性，考虑到短期外卖AOV增速以及到店酒旅版块OPM短期承压，基于谨慎性原则调整公司2023-2025年营收分别为2,757/3,287/3,836亿元，归母净利润分别为127/177/318亿元，Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为220/275/426亿元，对应摊薄EPS为2.0/2.8/4.9元;目标价110港元。 该行预计，美团2023Q4实现总营收726亿元(YoY+21%);核心本地商业营收544亿元(YoY+25%)，其中餐饮外卖业务预计营收381亿元(YoY+18%)，经营利润率11.6%;闪购业务预计营收48亿元(YoY+19%)，经营利润率-8%;到店酒旅业务预计营收113亿元(YoY+60%)，经营利润率28%;新业务预计营收183亿元(YoY+10%)。 ...

  在和抖音激战正酣、股价承压之际，美团宣布了组织与人员的大规模调整。这也是自 2021 年 9 月美团宣布「零售+科技」战略后，首次进行组织架构调整。 2 月 2 日，美团 CEO 王兴发布内部邮件，宣布了此次调整。一方面，美团对核心本地商业多项业务进行了重大整合；另一方面，美团进一步提升了科技与国际化等创新业务的优先级，王兴将直接管无人机、境外业务。 核心本地商业的具体调整如下：到家事业群、到店事业群、美团平台、基础研发平台等进行整合，共同向美团高级副总裁王莆中汇报；而大众点评、SaaS、骑行、充电宝等业务将由美团高级副总裁张川负责。其他组织保持不变。 美团高级副总裁王莆中。图源 | 视觉中国 一位美团员工对该调整表示惊讶，「川哥（张川）管的业务没有那么多了。」他对极客公园表示。 美团的组织架构主要分为两大事业群（到家、到店）、三大平台（美团平台、智慧交通平台、基础研发平台）、若干个事业部（优选事业部、快驴事业部、买菜事业部、点评事业部等）。 过去，王莆中和张川各管到家、到店两大事业群。前者主要包括外卖事业部、配送部、闪购业务部、团好货业务部、医药业务部、研发平台等；后者主要包括到店餐饮事业部、到店综合 ...