Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [10][11][39]. Core Insights - The company's core local business has exceeded expectations, with new business segments accelerating their loss reduction. The report highlights strong revenue growth in the core local business and optimistic profitability in the instant retail sector [16][30][39]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.276 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 25.01%. The GAAP net profit was 5.369 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit margin of 7.3% [6][16]. - The report projects revenues of 331.2 billion yuan and 390.5 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 37.8 billion yuan and 53 billion yuan [39]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 54.63 billion yuan, up 27.38% year-over-year, with an operating profit of 9.699 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.69% increase [16][23]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 18.65 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.55%, with an operating loss of 2.757 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [16][29]. Business Segments - The instant delivery business showed strong growth, with a total of 5.465 billion orders in Q1, marking a 28.06% increase year-over-year. The report notes that the delivery service revenue reached 21.065 billion yuan [16][24]. - The community group buying business is experiencing accelerated loss reduction due to strategic optimizations, with revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [29][32]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's long-term business barriers and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook on the core local business and the potential for new business segments to contribute to overall performance [10][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from a more favorable competitive landscape in the local services market, particularly in the dine-in and travel sectors, as competition stabilizes [31][38].

财务数据 美团（3690.HK） 报告摘要 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 新业务减亏取得实质进展：优选业务减亏有实质突破，主要举措包括提高商品加 价率、优化用户补贴、关停低效率前置仓及自提点，聚焦自然留存及增长，减亏 趋势或在后续几个季度持续显现。 2024 年 06 月 11 日 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市 ...

财务数据 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市盈率估值，上调目标价至 131 港元，维持"买入"评级。 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 预测及估值：我们预计 2 季度收入同比增 18.5%，其中核心本地商业/新业务同 比增 17%/23%。考虑基数效应，预计 2 季度外卖单量增速放缓至 13%，AOV 下 降压力或将在下 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 买入（维持） ◼ 业绩超预期：美团 24Q1 实现营业收入 733 亿元，同比增长 25%，彭博一致 预期为 690 亿元；经调整归母净利润 75 亿元，彭博一致预期为 60 亿元。 公司收入利润好于预期。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司 Q1 利润好于我们预期，我们将公司 2024- 2026 年经调整利润由 337/472/597 亿元上调至 377/515/609 亿元，对应 2024- 2026 年经调整 PE 为 17/12/10 倍，维持"买入"评级。 2024Q1 业绩点评：利润超预期，关注到店酒 旅变现率修复 2024 年 06 月 11 日 [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 即时配送单量增长亮眼，利润持续释放。24Q1 公司即时配送交易笔数同比 增长 28.1%至 54.65 亿笔，好于一致预期。1）餐饮外卖我们测算得 24Q1 单 量同比增长 24%，外卖交易用户数大幅增加，交易频次增长更快。Q1 公司 继续为消费者提供高性价比供给，如"品牌卫星店"模式中 KA 商家可更 精简的成 ...

隐证券 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 美团-W 恒生指数 分析、估值方法的局限性说明 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | | | | 上海 | 深圳 | | 地址：上海市浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号陆家嘴金控广场 1 号 | 地址：深圳市福田区金田路 2030 号卓越世纪中心 1 号 | | 楼 2-3 层 | 楼 45 层 | | 邮编： 200120 | 邮编： 518000 | | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | | 北京 | 西安 | | 地址：北京市西城区西直门外大街 18 号金贸大厦 C2 座 9 层 | 地址：西安市高新区锦业路 1 号都市之门 B 座 5 层 | | 邮编： 100044 | 邮编： 710065 | | 邮箱： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of HKD 121, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous target price [45][47]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, exceeding market expectations by 6.2%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 7.5 billion, surpassing market expectations by 29%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.2% [2][29]. - New business losses have significantly narrowed, with operational losses of RMB 2.76 billion, down from 32% to 14.8% year-on-year. Revenue from new businesses grew by 18.5% to RMB 15.7 billion [12][29]. - The core business saw a revenue increase of 27.4% to RMB 54.6 billion, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues growing by 25%, 27%, and 33% respectively. However, the operating profit only slightly increased by 2.7% [29]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY22, the company reported a revenue of RMB 219.96 billion, which is projected to grow to RMB 346.45 billion in FY24E and RMB 397.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 2.83 billion in FY22 to RMB 37.42 billion in FY24E and RMB 44.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The operating profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.82 billion in FY22 to a profit of RMB 28.19 billion in FY24E and RMB 36.12 billion in FY25E [49]. Market Expectations - The stock price as of June 6, 2024, was HKD 112.7, with a target price of HKD 121, indicating potential upside [5][35]. - The report highlights that the delivery transaction volume grew by 28.1% year-on-year, reaching 5.46 billion transactions, which is better than expected [29].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 港元 112.70 | 目标价 港元 129.00↑ | 潜在涨幅 +14.5% | 2024 年 6 月 7 日 | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | 利润超预期，现价对应 | 16 | 倍 2024 | 年市盈率，有上调空间 | | 收入：核心商业上调约 14 亿元（上调 0.6%），主要考虑外卖/闪购业务变 现率提升，尤其是商户广告投放意愿增强。新业务上调约 19 亿元（上调 2.3%），主要受小象超市/快驴等业务及优选 SKU 加价率提升拉动。 交银国际研究 业绩要点：1）外卖单量（+24%）同比增速略快于收入（+23%），广告变 现提升及补贴优化抵消 AOV 降幅>5%，估算 UE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Short-term macroeconomic factors have pressured food delivery growth, but Meituan's unit economics (UE) remain resilient, reflecting strong market competitiveness [1] - The boundary between Meituan and Douyin in the in-store and travel business is becoming clearer, with potential for gradual margin recovery [1] - Long-term competitive advantages are significant, with improving industry dynamics and attractive current valuation [1] - Adjusted earnings forecasts due to rapid loss reduction in new businesses, maintaining "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance Revenue - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 327 54 billion, +18 4% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 384 46 billion, +17 4% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 441 29 billion, +14 8% YoY [1] Net Profit - 2024E net profit forecast at RMB 28 11 billion, +102 8% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit forecast at RMB 45 15 billion, +60 6% YoY [1] - 2026E net profit forecast at RMB 55 85 billion, +23 9% YoY [1] Key Metrics - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 4 5 [1] - 2024E P/E ratio at 22 5x [1] - 2024E ROE at 15% [1] Business Segments Food Delivery - 24Q1 food delivery orders grew 24% YoY [1] - UE (unit economics) improved to RMB 1 18 per order in 24Q1 [1] - Flash delivery continues high growth, expected to be a key driver of revenue and profit growth [1] In-store & Travel - Competitive pressure from Douyin has eased [1] - 24Q1 operating margin reached 31%, up over 2 percentage points QoQ [1] - Market boundaries with Douyin are becoming clearer, supporting margin recovery [1] New Businesses - Community group buying business is in a rapid loss reduction cycle [1] - 24Q1 new business losses narrowed to RMB 2 77 billion, down 22 72% YoY and 20 76% QoQ [1] Valuation - Current market price: HK$110 4 [1] - Market capitalization: HK$688 35 billion [1] - 2024E-2026E P/E ratios: 22 5x, 14 1x, 11 5x respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [2][3][10] Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan's revenue grew by 25.01% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 59.86% [2][22] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 upwards by 20%, 8%, and 3% respectively, reflecting improved operational efficiency and a favorable competitive landscape [2][24] - The core business continues to perform well, with new business segments showing a rapid reduction in losses [2][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 73.28 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.07%, up 1.26 percentage points year-on-year [6][22] - The company's operating expense ratio decreased to 29.35%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year [6][22] Business Segments - The core local commerce segment generated 54.63 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 27.38% year-on-year, while the new business segment reported 18.65 billion yuan, up 18.55% [26] - Instant delivery transactions increased by 28.1% year-on-year, with the introduction of brand satellite stores contributing to growth in the food delivery business [22][23] Market Position - The competitive landscape for the core business remains stable, with significant improvements in operational efficiency and a focus on reducing losses in new business areas [2][22][25] - The company has expanded its instant delivery network, with approximately 7,000 lightning warehouses established by the end of Q1 2024 [22][23]

美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 营销服务收入增速明显，经调整利润同比增长 36%。2024Q1，美团实现营业 收入 733 亿元，同比增长 25%。按收入类型划分，本季度即时配送服务/交易 佣金/营销服务收入分别同比增长+25%/+27%/+34%。营销服务收入增速明显， 美团在传统货架模式的基础上提升了营销能力。毛利率、研发费率持续优化， 销售费率环比有优化。2024Q1，美团实现调整后净利润 75 亿元，同比增长 36%；调整后净利润率 10.2%，同比提升 0.9pct。毛利率同比提升约 1pct， 得益于社区团购等业务毛利率改善。费用端，销售费率为 19%，同比提升 1.2pct，但环比下降 3.7pct，同比上升主要因公司在用户端补贴和进行营销 推广活动增加。环比下降主要系公司补贴更精细化。 核心本地：外卖单均盈利环比提升，到店酒旅经营利润率环比回暖。 1）餐饮外卖：订单量同比增长 24%，测算外卖收入增速 23%，收入增速与单 量增速差距持续收窄。利润端，单均 UE 1.18 元，同比下降 0.1 元，主要由 于单均价下降以及骑手补贴影响。环比提升主要系广告变现能力提高和规模 经济，预计二 ...