请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 总览: 收入增长稳健, 调整后利润率 5.9% 收入同比增长 23%,核心本地各业务均呈现稳建增长。202304,美团实现营业收入 737 亿元,同比增长 23%。按收入类型划分,本季度即时配送服务/交易佣金/营销服务收 入分别同比增长+11%/+33%/+41%。与去年同期相比，营销服务收入增速回升明显，主 要得益于到店酒旅需求复苏、以及外卖和闪购的货币化率提升,部分被到店酒旅的订 阅相关营销产品降价所抵消。 美团-W（03690.HK） 买入 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 买入(维持) | | 合理估值 | 125.00 - 144.00 港元 | | 收盘价 | 93.30 港元 | | 总市值/流通市值 52 周最高价/最低价 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 581698/5 ...

证券研究报告 核心本地商业稳健增长，新业务显著减亏 得益于本地商业的快速恢复，核心本地商业取得稳健增长 考虑到公司核心本地商业业务的稳健增长以及新业务板块的显著减亏，我 们上调了对公司收入及经调整净利润的预估，预计 2024-2026 年收入分别 为 3328/3907/4440 亿元，对应增速分别为 20.3%/17.4%/13.7%，经调整净 利润分别为 340/492/601 亿元，对应增速分别为 46.1%/44.9%/22.2%。考虑 到美团仍有较快增长，参考可比公司估值倍数，我们给予公司 2024 年 18 倍 PE（基于经调整净利润），则公司合理市值为 6114 亿元/6740 亿港元， 目标价 97.91 元/107.94 港元（汇率取 0.90706），维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：经济下行风险；本地生活业务竞争加剧风险；公司运营风险； 社会服务/本地生活服务 Ⅱ 增持（维持） 93.40 港元 107.94 港元 2024 年 03 月 27 日 美团-W(03690) 事件： 2023 年全年，公司核心本地商业分部的收入为 2069 亿元，同比增长 28.7%； 经营利润为 387 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improved competitive dynamics in core businesses and a narrowing loss in new businesses [15][19] Core Views - The company's 4Q2023 revenue increased by 22.56% YoY, with adjusted net profit surging by 427.62% YoY [19] - The company's 2023 revenue reached RMB 276.745 billion, a 25.82% YoY increase, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 13.856 billion, turning from a loss in the previous year [19] - The company's 4Q2023 gross margin rose by 5.75 percentage points, while the expense ratio increased by 2.84 percentage points [15][20] - The company's real-time delivery transactions in 4Q2023 grew by 25.2% YoY, with peak daily food delivery orders reaching 78 million [21] Business Performance Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 55.13 billion, with a YoY growth of 26.82% [1] - Core local commerce revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 206.91 billion, a 28.71% YoY increase [2] - Delivery services accounted for 39.77% of core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023, with a YoY growth of 10.90% [2] - Commission income grew by 32.73% YoY in 4Q2023, contributing 35.24% to core local commerce revenue [2] New Business - New business revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 18.57 billion, with a YoY growth of 11.46% [1] - New business revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 69.84 billion, a 17.98% YoY increase [2] - The new business segment reported an operating loss of RMB 20.17 billion in 2023, with a negative operating margin of 28.88% [2] Financial Metrics - The company's 2023 gross margin was 35.12%, up 7.04 percentage points YoY [20] - The company's 2023 expense ratio was 32.74%, with sales and marketing expenses accounting for 21.18% of revenue [20] - The company's adjusted EPS for 2023 was RMB 3.73, with a projected increase to RMB 9.32 by 2026 [23] - The company's 2023 ROE (diluted) was 9.12%, with a projected increase to 18.57% by 2026 [7] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 424.038 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 13.72% [23] - The company's adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 58.121 billion by 2026 [23] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 40.52% by 2026 [7] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The company's core local commerce business has shown stable competitive dynamics, with significant growth in delivery and commission income [2][19] - The new business segment is expected to focus on reducing losses, with a projected narrowing of losses in 2024 and beyond [15][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [13] Core Views - The report indicates that the home delivery business is expected to show steady growth, while the in-store profit margin is likely to stabilize. New businesses are anticipated to significantly reduce losses, driving profit release [24][25] - The forecast for non-IFRS net profit has been adjusted to 31.7 billion, 44.4 billion, and 61.6 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.4%, 40.0%, and 38.7% [14][15] Summary by Sections Home Delivery Business - The home delivery business is projected to maintain steady growth in order volume, although the average order value may decline due to macroeconomic factors. Profit margins are expected to slightly decrease, with future focus on consumer recovery to drive order growth and potential upward revisions in average order value [2][24] In-store Business - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the post-redemption GTV performance in the in-store business for 2024. Profit margins are expected to stabilize, and a clearer market structure may restore operational profit margins, boosting market confidence [2][24] New Businesses - The community group buying business will prioritize user experience over market share expansion, aiming to reduce losses through increased average order value and reduced subsidies. Other new businesses are expected to reach breakeven [2][24] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 327.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 31.7 billion, reflecting a 36.4% increase [15][14] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including diluted EPS of 5.1, 7.1, and 9.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 11.8, and 8.5 [15][14]

估值：考虑2024年到店业务的投入和社区团购刚开始减亏，我们认为2025 年公司业绩或能反映美团实际价值，我们给予2025年本地商业15倍市盈率 ，并考虑新业务0.5倍市销率，保守原则不考虑社区团购业务，折现2024年 目标价为111港元（原93港元），维持买入。 1年股价表现 资料来源: FactSet 3/23 7/23 11/23 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%3690 HK 恒生指数 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 图表 1: 2023年4季度财务状况摘要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------|-------------------------------|---------|---------|---------| | 财务数据一览 年结 12月31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of HKD 94, reflecting a potential upside of 7% from the current price of HKD 88.25 [29][39]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 737 billion for Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, surpassing market expectations by 1.2%. The gross margin improved by 5.7 percentage points to 33.9%, driven by changes in revenue structure and reduced delivery costs [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 44 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 29 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 5.9% [2]. - The company aims to narrow losses in new business segments, particularly focusing on improving user experience and reducing subsidies rather than solely expanding market share [13][29]. Financial Summary - For FY22, the company reported a revenue of RMB 219,955 million, which is projected to grow to RMB 276,745 million in FY23 and further to RMB 312,702 million in FY24E [3]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 2,827 million in FY22 to RMB 23,253 million in FY23, and reach RMB 29,722 million in FY24E [3]. - The operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 5,820 million in FY22 to a profit of RMB 13,415 million in FY23, and further to RMB 21,419 million in FY24E [3]. Business Performance - The core local business revenue grew by 26.8% year-on-year to RMB 551 billion in Q4 2023, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues increasing by 11%, 33%, and 41% respectively [22]. - The number of delivery transactions increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 6 billion, with daily average orders reaching 65.7 million [22]. - The new business segment reported a revenue of RMB 186 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11%, although the operating loss was RMB 48 billion [22].

美团-W（3690） 更新报告 收入和利润超市场预 期，交易笔数增长强劲 23Q4 收入达 737 亿元人民币（YoY+22.6%），经营利润 17 亿元，经营利润率 2.4%，净 利润 22 亿元，净利润率 3.0%，收入和利润均超市场预期，这得益于本地商业的快速恢 复 以 及 核 心 本 地 商 业 和 新 业 务 的 强 劲 表 现 。 全 年 看 ， 23 年收入 2767 亿 元 （YoY+25.8%），经营利润 134 亿元，经营利润率 4.8%，净利润为 139 亿元，净利润率 5.0%。 图表 1：公司营业收入（百万元） 第一上海证券有限公司 2024 年 3 月 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|------------------------ ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 美团-W（03690.HK） 到店竞争趋稳，关注 24 年减亏进展 风险提示 市价（港币）：88.250 元 0 5,000 62.00 77.00 92.00 107.00 122.00 137.00 152.00 230324230624230924231224 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 美团-W 恒生指数 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 港股公司点评 港股公司点评 特别声明： 若国金证券以外的任何机构或个人发送本报告，则由该机构或个人为此发送行为承担全部责任。本报告不构成国金证券向发送本报告机构或个人的收件人提供 投资建议，国金证券不为此承担任何责任。 2024 年 03 月 24 日 买入（维持评级） 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 2024 年 3 月 22 日，公司披露 2023 第四季度及全年业绩公告， 2023Q4 公司实现营收 737 亿元，同比+23%，Non-IFRS 归母净利润 44 亿元，同比+428%；2023 全年公司实现营收 2767 亿元，同比 +26%，全年 Non-IFRS 归母净利润 233 亿元，同比 ...

美团-W（03690.HK） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 220,076 | 276,850 | 329,724 | 366,755 | 400,274 | | 同比 | 22.86% | 25.80% | 19.10% | 11.23% | 9.14% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -6,686 | 13,856 | 26,064 | 40,697 | 54,029 | | 同比 | - | - | 88.11% | 56.14% | 32.76% | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 2,826 | 23,284 | 33,741 | 47,189 | 59,709 | | 同比 | - | 723.99% | 44.91% ...

2024 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2024/03/22 新业务及其他：2023Q4 新业务营收同比增长 11%至 186 亿元，经 营溢利-48 亿元（2022Q4 亏损 64 亿元），经营溢利率-26% （YoY+12pct），经营亏损率改善主要得益于业务经营效率提高。1） 美团优选业务：2023 年美团优选业务规模增长低于预期、行业竞争 证券研究报告 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；消费复苏不及预期；本地生活 和零售行业竞争加剧，行业增长不及预期；美团优选等新业务 UE 改 善不及预期等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2 2024年3月22日公司发布2023Q4财报，2023Q4实现营收737亿元（YoY+23%， QoQ-4%），营业利润 18 亿元（对应 2022Q4 亏损 7 亿元），净利润 22 亿元 （对应 2022Q4 亏损 11 亿元），Non-GAAP EBITDA 37 亿元（YoY+26%， QoQ-40%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润 44 亿元（YoY+428%，QoQ-24%）。 （1）业绩总览：2023Q4 实现 ...