证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 买入（维持） ◼ 业绩超预期：美团 24Q1 实现营业收入 733 亿元，同比增长 25%，彭博一致 预期为 690 亿元；经调整归母净利润 75 亿元，彭博一致预期为 60 亿元。 公司收入利润好于预期。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司 Q1 利润好于我们预期，我们将公司 2024- 2026 年经调整利润由 337/472/597 亿元上调至 377/515/609 亿元，对应 2024- 2026 年经调整 PE 为 17/12/10 倍，维持"买入"评级。 2024Q1 业绩点评：利润超预期，关注到店酒 旅变现率修复 2024 年 06 月 11 日 [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 即时配送单量增长亮眼，利润持续释放。24Q1 公司即时配送交易笔数同比 增长 28.1%至 54.65 亿笔，好于一致预期。1）餐饮外卖我们测算得 24Q1 单 量同比增长 24%，外卖交易用户数大幅增加，交易频次增长更快。Q1 公司 继续为消费者提供高性价比供给，如"品牌卫星店"模式中 KA 商家可更 精简的成 ...

隐证券 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 美团-W 恒生指数 分析、估值方法的局限性说明 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | | | | 上海 | 深圳 | | 地址：上海市浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号陆家嘴金控广场 1 号 | 地址：深圳市福田区金田路 2030 号卓越世纪中心 1 号 | | 楼 2-3 层 | 楼 45 层 | | 邮编： 200120 | 邮编： 518000 | | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | | 北京 | 西安 | | 地址：北京市西城区西直门外大街 18 号金贸大厦 C2 座 9 层 | 地址：西安市高新区锦业路 1 号都市之门 B 座 5 层 | | 邮编： 100044 | 邮编： 710065 | | 邮箱： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of HKD 121, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous target price [45][47]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, exceeding market expectations by 6.2%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 7.5 billion, surpassing market expectations by 29%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.2% [2][29]. - New business losses have significantly narrowed, with operational losses of RMB 2.76 billion, down from 32% to 14.8% year-on-year. Revenue from new businesses grew by 18.5% to RMB 15.7 billion [12][29]. - The core business saw a revenue increase of 27.4% to RMB 54.6 billion, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues growing by 25%, 27%, and 33% respectively. However, the operating profit only slightly increased by 2.7% [29]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY22, the company reported a revenue of RMB 219.96 billion, which is projected to grow to RMB 346.45 billion in FY24E and RMB 397.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 2.83 billion in FY22 to RMB 37.42 billion in FY24E and RMB 44.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The operating profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.82 billion in FY22 to a profit of RMB 28.19 billion in FY24E and RMB 36.12 billion in FY25E [49]. Market Expectations - The stock price as of June 6, 2024, was HKD 112.7, with a target price of HKD 121, indicating potential upside [5][35]. - The report highlights that the delivery transaction volume grew by 28.1% year-on-year, reaching 5.46 billion transactions, which is better than expected [29].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 港元 112.70 | 目标价 港元 129.00↑ | 潜在涨幅 +14.5% | 2024 年 6 月 7 日 | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | 利润超预期，现价对应 | 16 | 倍 2024 | 年市盈率，有上调空间 | | 收入：核心商业上调约 14 亿元（上调 0.6%），主要考虑外卖/闪购业务变 现率提升，尤其是商户广告投放意愿增强。新业务上调约 19 亿元（上调 2.3%），主要受小象超市/快驴等业务及优选 SKU 加价率提升拉动。 交银国际研究 业绩要点：1）外卖单量（+24%）同比增速略快于收入（+23%），广告变 现提升及补贴优化抵消 AOV 降幅>5%，估算 UE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Short-term macroeconomic factors have pressured food delivery growth, but Meituan's unit economics (UE) remain resilient, reflecting strong market competitiveness [1] - The boundary between Meituan and Douyin in the in-store and travel business is becoming clearer, with potential for gradual margin recovery [1] - Long-term competitive advantages are significant, with improving industry dynamics and attractive current valuation [1] - Adjusted earnings forecasts due to rapid loss reduction in new businesses, maintaining "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance Revenue - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 327 54 billion, +18 4% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 384 46 billion, +17 4% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 441 29 billion, +14 8% YoY [1] Net Profit - 2024E net profit forecast at RMB 28 11 billion, +102 8% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit forecast at RMB 45 15 billion, +60 6% YoY [1] - 2026E net profit forecast at RMB 55 85 billion, +23 9% YoY [1] Key Metrics - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 4 5 [1] - 2024E P/E ratio at 22 5x [1] - 2024E ROE at 15% [1] Business Segments Food Delivery - 24Q1 food delivery orders grew 24% YoY [1] - UE (unit economics) improved to RMB 1 18 per order in 24Q1 [1] - Flash delivery continues high growth, expected to be a key driver of revenue and profit growth [1] In-store & Travel - Competitive pressure from Douyin has eased [1] - 24Q1 operating margin reached 31%, up over 2 percentage points QoQ [1] - Market boundaries with Douyin are becoming clearer, supporting margin recovery [1] New Businesses - Community group buying business is in a rapid loss reduction cycle [1] - 24Q1 new business losses narrowed to RMB 2 77 billion, down 22 72% YoY and 20 76% QoQ [1] Valuation - Current market price: HK$110 4 [1] - Market capitalization: HK$688 35 billion [1] - 2024E-2026E P/E ratios: 22 5x, 14 1x, 11 5x respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [2][3][10] Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan's revenue grew by 25.01% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 59.86% [2][22] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 upwards by 20%, 8%, and 3% respectively, reflecting improved operational efficiency and a favorable competitive landscape [2][24] - The core business continues to perform well, with new business segments showing a rapid reduction in losses [2][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 73.28 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.07%, up 1.26 percentage points year-on-year [6][22] - The company's operating expense ratio decreased to 29.35%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year [6][22] Business Segments - The core local commerce segment generated 54.63 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 27.38% year-on-year, while the new business segment reported 18.65 billion yuan, up 18.55% [26] - Instant delivery transactions increased by 28.1% year-on-year, with the introduction of brand satellite stores contributing to growth in the food delivery business [22][23] Market Position - The competitive landscape for the core business remains stable, with significant improvements in operational efficiency and a focus on reducing losses in new business areas [2][22][25] - The company has expanded its instant delivery network, with approximately 7,000 lightning warehouses established by the end of Q1 2024 [22][23]

美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 营销服务收入增速明显，经调整利润同比增长 36%。2024Q1，美团实现营业 收入 733 亿元，同比增长 25%。按收入类型划分，本季度即时配送服务/交易 佣金/营销服务收入分别同比增长+25%/+27%/+34%。营销服务收入增速明显， 美团在传统货架模式的基础上提升了营销能力。毛利率、研发费率持续优化， 销售费率环比有优化。2024Q1，美团实现调整后净利润 75 亿元，同比增长 36%；调整后净利润率 10.2%，同比提升 0.9pct。毛利率同比提升约 1pct， 得益于社区团购等业务毛利率改善。费用端，销售费率为 19%，同比提升 1.2pct，但环比下降 3.7pct，同比上升主要因公司在用户端补贴和进行营销 推广活动增加。环比下降主要系公司补贴更精细化。 核心本地：外卖单均盈利环比提升，到店酒旅经营利润率环比回暖。 1）餐饮外卖：订单量同比增长 24%，测算外卖收入增速 23%，收入增速与单 量增速差距持续收窄。利润端，单均 UE 1.18 元，同比下降 0.1 元，主要由 于单均价下降以及骑手补贴影响。环比提升主要系广告变现能力提高和规模 经济，预计二 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11][26] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached 73.3 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 25% and exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 69 billion RMB [5][15] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 5.2 billion RMB, up 45% year-over-year, and net profit was 5.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 60% year-over-year increase [5][15] - The core local business revenue grew by 27% year-over-year to 54.6 billion RMB, driven by refined marketing and subsidy strategies [7][11] - The company is expected to achieve revenue forecasts of 329.8 billion RMB, 384.5 billion RMB, and 436.9 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11][26] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 Non-GAAP net profit was 7.5 billion RMB, a 36% increase year-over-year, surpassing the expected 5.8 billion RMB [5][15] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 35.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to improved margins in retail business [20][25] - The operating margin was 7.1%, and the net profit margin was 7.3%, both showing year-over-year improvements [20][25] Business Segments - The food delivery business saw a steady growth with a 24% year-over-year increase in order volume, reaching nearly 500 million active users [7][11] - The flash purchase business achieved a daily order volume of 8.4 million, with growth rates exceeding those of the food delivery segment [7][11] - The hotel and travel segment reported a GTV growth of over 60% year-over-year, with revenue growth of 33% [8][11] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects a target market value of 800.9 billion RMB for the company, with a target price of 128 RMB per share [11][26] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are 4.66 RMB, 6.44 RMB, and 8.42 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11][26]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [Table_Industry] 社会服务 证 券 研 究 报 告 新业务超预期减亏，到家、到店有望打通协同 [Table_Invest]评级：增持 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] :(港元) 110.40 美团-W(3690) [Table_Date] 2024.06.08 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------| | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | 52 周内股价区间 ( 港元 ) | 62.55-146.30 | | 当前股本 ( 百万股 ) | 6,235 | | 当前市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 688,350 | -49% -36% -22% -9% 5% 18% 2023/62023/72023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/6 52周内股价走势图 美团- ...

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