Meituan (3690.HK) Equity Research 1 December 2025 | 6:18AM HKT 3Q25 Review: Sustaining GTV scale leadership; reframing bull/bear narratives; Buy 3690.HK 12m Price Target: HK$120.00 Price: HK$102.50 Upside: 17.1% Meituan reported narrower-than-expected 3Q losses with adj. operating loss of -Rmb17.5bn (vs. GSe of -Rmb18.8bn), where we estimate food delivery+instashopping losses of -Rmb19bn (GSe) came slightly better than expected, and new initiatives adj. operating loss came in better at -Rmb1.3bn (vs. GSe/VA ...

在美团公布 2025 年 3 季度业绩后，我们持谨慎态度，认为投资者应 保持观望，同时密切关注三个关键领域的进展：外卖领域的竞争、到 店业务利润率的可持续性以及海外扩张的执行情况。这些业务均面临 显著不确定性——从外卖领域补贴大战的激烈程度和持续时间，到到 店业务利润率企稳的速度，再到海外投资的资本密集度和回报周期— —这些因素共同削弱了财务能见度，并加剧了盈利波动风险。我们将 2025 年 4 季度盈利预测下调 31%，以反映到店业务盈利能力下降； 同时我们认为该股的估值上行空间有限，直至有更明确的证据表明其 利润率走势的可预测性增强、核心外卖业务的竞争趋于理性，以及海 外扩张节奏更加审慎。 在外卖领域，我们认可美团仍在中高价订单市场占据主导地位，但需 注意的是，该领先地位正面临日益激烈的竞争环境，尤其是来自阿里 的竞争。我们认为，阿里巴巴逐步抢占此类高价值及高频消费用户心 智的风险正在上升，继而或将在中长期引发消费者钱包份额从美团向 外迁移。我们认为，这一风险解释了美团近期加大会员权益投入的举 措，我们认为这是其捍卫和深化其核心用户群忠诚度的战略部署，而 非简单的促销策略。我们还强调，阿里巴巴同时也在持续 ...

12月首个交易日，恒指、恒科指小幅高开，港股AI盘中走强，截至发稿，阿里巴巴-W涨超3%，腾讯控股、快手-W涨逾1%，美团-W水下拉升翻红，早盘一 度跌超2%。港股AI核心工具——港股互联网ETF（513770）场内价格现涨0.9%，站上5日线。 消息面上，美团-W上周五盘后发布三季报，单季度本地市场业务亏损约141亿元，主要受外卖行业非理性竞争影响。美团表示，外卖亏损在三季度已经达 峰。阿里巴巴此前也透露对其闪购业务补贴放缓的信号，"外卖大战"告一段落。 | 十大权重 | | | | 中新日期: 2025-11-10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 中证一级行业分类 | 中证二级行业分类 | 权重(%) | | 9988. HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 可选肖费 | 幸喜业 | 18.89 | | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 通信服务 | 传媒 | 17.01 | | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 电子 | 10.05 | | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 可选消费 | 消费者服务 | 8.24 | | 661 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券国际发布研报称，美团-W(03690)今年第三季新业务运营利润超预期。该 行认为，股价已反映美团为捍卫市场份额所做的增量投资，随着竞争趋向理性化，料其2026年预测盈利 复苏前景可期。暂维持目标价139港元及"增持"评级。该行预测，第四季集团闪购保持良好增长势头， 到店酒旅维持两位数增长，同时预测新业务于第四季增速将加快至同比增19%。展望2026年，该行预计 美团核心本地商业收入同比增12%，运营利润则达180亿元人民币，新业务收入同比增18%。 ...

招商证券国际发布研报称，美团-W(03690)今年第三季新业务运营利润超预期。该行认为，股价已反映 美团为捍卫市场份额所做的增量投资，随着竞争趋向理性化，料其2026年预测盈利复苏前景可期。暂维 持目标价139港元及"增持"评级。该行预测，第四季集团闪购保持良好增长势头，到店酒旅维持两位数 增长，同时预测新业务于第四季增速将加快至同比增19%。展望2026年，该行预计美团核心本地商业收 入同比增12%，运营利润则达180亿元人民币，新业务收入同比增18%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend on the first trading day of December, with significant movements in AI-related stocks, particularly Alibaba and Tencent, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index opened slightly higher, with Alibaba-W rising over 3% and Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou-W increasing by more than 1% [1]. - Meituan-W, after initially dropping over 2%, managed to turn positive during the early trading session [1]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) saw a price increase of 0.9%, surpassing the 5-day moving average [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Meituan reported a significant loss of approximately 14.1 billion yuan in its local market business for the third quarter, primarily due to irrational competition in the food delivery sector [2]. - Alibaba indicated a slowdown in subsidies for its flash purchase business, suggesting a conclusion to the intense competition in the food delivery market [2]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) passively tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, which is heavily weighted towards leading internet companies, with Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W comprising the top three holdings [3]. - The ETF's latest scale exceeds 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 600 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity and support for intraday T+0 trading [3]. - The index has shown a significant performance variation over the past five years, with a notable increase of 23.04% in 2024, following declines in previous years [5].

12月1日，截至发稿时，美团港股微跌1%，报每股99.3港元，总市值6068.74港元。 | 101.400+ | 100.00 101.600 今 开 100.100 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 最低 | 99.050 昨 收 102.500 | -1.100 -1.07% | | 亏损 总市值 6 6197.08亿 | 11.71亿 市盈率TTM | 成交额 | | 1170.89万股 市盈率(静) | 16.03 总股本 61.12亿 | 成交量 | | 0.19% 市净率(i) == = | 3.38 流通值 6197.08亿 | 换手率 | | 189.600 委 比 | 61.12亿 | 52周最高 | | 94.050 量 比 | 2.49% | 52周最低 | | 460.000 股息TTM | ------- 股息率TM - | 历史最高 | | -- 股息率LFY | 40.250 股息LFY - 10.250 -- | 历史最低 | | 100股 Beta (1 | 99.970 每 手 1.607 | 平均价 | | < | | | | ADR换算价 1 100 ...

来源：估值之家 11月28日周五收盘，美团(03690.HK)公布了2025年三季度财报，公司于2025Q3实现营业收入955亿元， 同比增长2.0%；实现经调整EBITDA亏损148亿元，实现经调整净利润亏损160亿元。 | | 截至下列日期止三個月 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年9月30日 2024年9月30日 | | | | | | | | 佔收入 | | 估收入 | | | | 金額 | 百分比 | 金額 | 百分比 | 同比筹動 | | | (人民幣千元,百分比除外) | | | | | | 收入 | 95.488.113 | 100.0% | 93.577.319 | 100.0% | 2.0% | | 經營(虧損)/ 溢利 | (19.759.350) | (20.7%) | 13.685.176 | 14.6% | 不瘦用 | | 期内(虧損)/ 溢利 | (18,632,088) | (19.5%) | 12.864.954 | 13.7% | 不瘦用 | | 非國際財務報告會計準則計量!: | | | | ...

Core Insights - The competition in the food delivery sector is not over; it has merely shifted in strategy, moving from a subsidy and volume battle to an ecological and systemic competition [2][3][8] - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com have collectively burned over 100 billion yuan in the food delivery business within a short period, indicating the high stakes involved [4][6] - Meituan reported its largest loss since going public, with a core local business segment loss of 14.1 billion yuan, while Alibaba and JD.com also faced significant profit declines [6][7] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q3 revenue fluctuated, resulting in a significant operating loss of 16 billion yuan, with sales and marketing expenses reaching 34.3 billion yuan, up 183% year-on-year [6][7] - Alibaba's operating profit dropped from 35.2 billion yuan to 5.4 billion yuan, with sales and marketing expenses increasing by 340 billion yuan [6][7] - JD.com reported a loss of 15.7 billion yuan in new businesses, including food delivery, with marketing expenses rising by 110.5% to 21.1 billion yuan [6][7] Strategic Shifts - The competition is transitioning to a more sustainable and rational phase, focusing on long-term ecological strategies rather than aggressive price wars [8][17] - Alibaba's management indicated a focus on optimizing order structures and logistics costs, leading to improved unit economics in its food delivery segment [9][11] - Meituan is increasing direct subsidies in the restaurant sector while also expanding its overseas operations [13][14] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Alibaba gaining a strategic advantage in the food delivery market, while Meituan is under pressure due to its reliance on food delivery as a primary traffic source [19][21] - The long-term implications of this competition may lead to a more integrated ecosystem that encompasses food delivery, e-commerce, and other online travel agency (OTA) services [21][22] - The entry of competitors like Douyin and Pinduoduo into the market adds further complexity to the competitive dynamics, as they seek to capture a share of the growing instant retail market [21][22]

我们专注于服务增长的提升以及行业健康发展，这使得我们可以在充满活力的市场中游刃 有余的强化以消费者为导向的思维模式，进一步巩固我们在这一领域的领先地位。在现在 的竞争中，我们有非常多的创新模式，包括拼好饭、神枪手和品牌卫星店等等。我们进一 步深化与高质量商家的合作，拓展全价格带高质量产品的覆盖范围。 基于我们平台上的真 实数据，我们能够筛选出最优质的餐饮商家的为高价值餐饮外卖用户匹配最为精准的优质 供应商。此外，我们推出准时宝和一对一送等高质量服务，以强化我们在履约侧的核心竞 争力，提升消费者的配送体验。 1、餐饮外卖 日活和月交易用户数在 2025 年第三季度均创下历史新高。除此之外，我们还扩大用户结 构优势，核心用户规模同比实现稳健增长。更多中低频次用户开始跃迁，消费频次和粘性 均有明显的提升，消费场景也更加多元化。 未来，我们将继续专注于改善供应结构以及履 约能力，推动核心消费进一步的提高频次。我们要让核心用户消费频次和粘性进一步提升。 对于整个生态，我们一直是非常重视。我们希望能够有非常好的举措来建设生态。对于骑 手的福利，我们从 11 月会将骑手养老保险补贴计划扩大至全国范围，并将职业伤害保险 覆盖 ...