Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the stock, indicating that the company's stock performance is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 10% [158]. Core Insights - The report outlines the current development stage of Douyin's local life services and explores the differentiated competitive strategies between Douyin and Meituan this year [3]. - Douyin's local life service business has reached 4.5 million cooperative stores, while Meituan's active merchant count was approximately 9.3 million in 2022, growing over 60% to an estimated 14.88 million in 2023 [5][106]. - Overall, Douyin's GTV growth has been relatively weak this year, attributed not only to organizational adjustments but also to strategic decisions based on its development stage [12][166]. Summary by Sections 1. Meituan's In-store Travel Business Progress - Meituan's strategy focuses on consolidating long-term competitive advantages rather than merely pursuing market share [30]. - The company has adopted a subsidy strategy to stabilize its market share, with GTV growth of approximately 60% in Q1 2024 [34][39]. - Meituan's operating profit margin (OPM) has decreased from 48% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023 due to increased subsidies and operational costs [21][39]. 2. Douyin's Local Life Business Progress - Douyin's merchant coverage is estimated to be about 30% of Meituan's, with stable growth in restaurant merchants and ongoing development of new categories [26][144]. - The GTV growth in Douyin's local life services is driven by an increase in merchant coverage and category expansion, with a reported GMV growth of 256% in 2023 [105][86]. - Douyin's live streaming has become a new growth point for the travel industry, with significant increases in order volumes [112][129]. 3. Competitive Dynamics - The competition between Douyin and Meituan is characterized by a partial misalignment, with Douyin focusing on large chain merchants while Meituan caters to small and medium-sized businesses [51][56]. - Douyin's operational model is more suited for larger merchants due to higher costs associated with advertising and influencer marketing, while Meituan's model supports long-term operations for smaller merchants [60][77]. - Douyin is exploring differentiated new business opportunities rather than relying on price wars, with a focus on product innovation and category expansion [163][166].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 分析师声明 一般声明 特别声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------| | 投资评级声明 \n类别 说明 | | 评级 体系 | | | | | 买入 | 预期股价相对收益 20% 以上 | | | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 增持 | 预期股价相对收益 10%-20% | | 股票投资评级 | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 持有 | 预期股价相对收益 -10%-10% | | | | 卖出 | 预期股价相对收益 -10% 以下 | | | | 强于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 行业投资评级 | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 中性 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%-5% | | | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 弱于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 以下 | | --- | --- | ...

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | 股票数据 | | | T 月 ab 20 le 日 _S 收 t 盘 oc 价 k （ In 港 fo 元 ] ） | | | 周股价波动（港元） | 61.1-150.0 | | 总股本 / 流通股（亿股） | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） | 7464/6744 | [Table_AuthorInfo] 经营概况：（1）业绩：1Q24 实现收入 733 亿元，同比增 25.0%；1Q24 即时 配送交易笔数 54.6 亿单，同比增 28.1%；1Q24 经调整 EBITDA 81 亿元，截 至 2024 年 3 月 31 日，现金及现金等价物 333 亿元。 （2）运营数据：1Q24 即时配送交易笔数 54.6 亿单，同比增 28.1%。其中，① 美团闪购：配送服务及佣金的收入增长，部分被餐饮外卖及闪购业务平均客单 价下降所抵消；"闪电仓"超 7000 家，春节期间，酒水饮料、礼赠品类和日用 百货等品类的交易金额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The report highlights that Meituan's total revenue for Q1 2024 reached 732.76 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year growth of 25.0%, slightly above consensus expectations by 6.2% [9] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 74.88 billion HKD, with a year-over-year increase of 36.4%, exceeding consensus expectations by 24.8% [9] - The report anticipates that Meituan's revenue will reach 328.2 billion HKD, 377.8 billion HKD, and 434.0 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 19% and 15% [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 2024 core local business revenue was 546.26 billion HKD, up 27.4% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.8% [9] - The new business segment generated revenue of 187 billion HKD in Q1 2024, an increase of 18.5% year-over-year, with operating losses narrowing to 28 billion HKD [9][12] Business Segments - The report notes strong growth in the food delivery and instant purchase segments, with transaction volumes increasing by 28% year-over-year, reaching 5.465 billion orders [9] - Meituan is innovating based on current consumer trends, launching brand satellite stores to optimize cost structures for chain merchants and expanding the reach of its "Pinhai Fan" service [9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing its "extreme execution" in the retail sector [4][9] - The estimated reasonable stock price based on the SOTP valuation method is 152 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and slightly raises the SOTP target price from HKD 175.00 to HKD 180.00 due to improved earnings prospects [1] Core Views - The valuation for the food delivery business is set at USD 57 billion using a 15x 2024 P/E, reflecting a 60% discount compared to the industry average of 37.5x due to a smaller Total Addressable Market (TAM) [1] - The valuation for the in-store, hotel, and tourism business is set at USD 38 billion, also using a 15x 2024 P/E, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 19.2x, again due to a smaller TAM [1] - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x 2024 P/GMV, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 1.0x [17] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, food delivery revenue is expected to grow by 23% year-on-year, slightly below the 24% growth in order volume, with average order value (AOV) declining due to subdued consumer spending [5] - The adjusted EBIT for Q1 2024 is projected to be RMB 5,209 million, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase [10] - The adjusted net income for Q1 2024 is expected to be RMB 7,488 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [10] - The report forecasts total revenue growth of 18% for Q2 2024 and 19% for the full year 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.1% for Q2 2024 [16] Business Segment Insights - The new business segment's losses narrowed to RMB 2.75 billion in Q1 2024, with expectations of further reductions in losses in subsequent quarters [6] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to accelerate profit growth as competition stabilizes [5] - The food delivery and flash purchase business saw significant order volume growth, with flash purchase turning profitable in Q1 2024 due to high-margin product contributions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [15][19]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan achieved a revenue of 732.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.0%. The net profit was 53.7 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit of 74.9 billion CNY, up from 54.9 billion CNY in the same period last year [15][16]. - The core local business revenue reached 546.3 billion CNY, growing by 27.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services [16][19]. - New business revenue was 186.5 billion CNY, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in operational losses due to improved warehouse operations and marketing efficiency [16][19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2022A Revenue: 2199.5 billion CNY, 2023A Revenue: 2767.4 billion CNY, 2024E Revenue: 3186.7 billion CNY [7]. - 2022A Net Profit: -66.9 billion CNY, 2023A Net Profit: 138.6 billion CNY, 2024E Net Profit: 265.8 billion CNY [7]. - Operating Metrics: - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 52.1 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 7.1% [16]. - The gross margin improved to 35.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [16][19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the core local business and improvements in new business operations, with projected net profits of 265.8 billion CNY, 385.4 billion CNY, and 492.3 billion CNY for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [19].

美團-W（3690） 更新報告 為美團未來的利潤貢獻將會得到進一步釋放，新業務的 ROI 逐步提升，結合目前 港股互聯網企業普遍估值在 10-15 倍區間，分別給予美團外賣和到店酒旅業務 24 年扣稅利潤的 23 倍和 15 倍 PE 估值，得出 135 港元目標價，維持買入評級。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------------|-----------|-------| | 盈利摘要 \n截至12月31日止财政年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 股價表現 \n160 | | | | 总营业收入（人民币百万元） | 219,955 | 276,745 | 326,097 | 384,337 | 447,000 | 140 120 | | | | 变动(%) | 22.8% | 25.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [10][11][39]. Core Insights - The company's core local business has exceeded expectations, with new business segments accelerating their loss reduction. The report highlights strong revenue growth in the core local business and optimistic profitability in the instant retail sector [16][30][39]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.276 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 25.01%. The GAAP net profit was 5.369 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit margin of 7.3% [6][16]. - The report projects revenues of 331.2 billion yuan and 390.5 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 37.8 billion yuan and 53 billion yuan [39]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 54.63 billion yuan, up 27.38% year-over-year, with an operating profit of 9.699 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.69% increase [16][23]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 18.65 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.55%, with an operating loss of 2.757 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [16][29]. Business Segments - The instant delivery business showed strong growth, with a total of 5.465 billion orders in Q1, marking a 28.06% increase year-over-year. The report notes that the delivery service revenue reached 21.065 billion yuan [16][24]. - The community group buying business is experiencing accelerated loss reduction due to strategic optimizations, with revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [29][32]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's long-term business barriers and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook on the core local business and the potential for new business segments to contribute to overall performance [10][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from a more favorable competitive landscape in the local services market, particularly in the dine-in and travel sectors, as competition stabilizes [31][38].

财务数据 美团（3690.HK） 报告摘要 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 新业务减亏取得实质进展：优选业务减亏有实质突破，主要举措包括提高商品加 价率、优化用户补贴、关停低效率前置仓及自提点，聚焦自然留存及增长，减亏 趋势或在后续几个季度持续显现。 2024 年 06 月 11 日 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市 ...

财务数据 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市盈率估值，上调目标价至 131 港元，维持"买入"评级。 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 预测及估值：我们预计 2 季度收入同比增 18.5%，其中核心本地商业/新业务同 比增 17%/23%。考虑基数效应，预计 2 季度外卖单量增速放缓至 13%，AOV 下 降压力或将在下 ...