Core Insights - The report highlights three core trends in the consumer services industry: "New Recovery, New Ecology, and New Supply" [6] - Structural factors are aiding certain sectors in stabilizing and improving operations, indicating a gradual recovery from the bottom [7] - The integration of online platforms with offline operations is reshaping the industry ecosystem, enhancing competition and operational efficiency [8] Industry Overview - The consumer services sector has seen a slight revenue increase of 2.57% year-on-year, totaling 183.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 12.7% decline in net profit [20][22] - The sector's performance has been mixed, with tourism and education sectors showing significant growth, while the hotel and restaurant sectors faced slight declines [16][19] New Recovery - The hotel industry is experiencing a rebound due to increased tourism demand and a stabilization in average daily rates (ADR), with occupancy rates showing signs of improvement [31][57] - The Macau gaming market has shown strong recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching 24.086 billion MOP in October 2025, driven by non-gaming attractions [32][44] - The duty-free market is benefiting from policy optimizations, with sales in Hainan reaching 2.425 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a 34.86% year-on-year increase [32][38] New Ecology - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are competing in the instant retail space, each leveraging their strengths to enhance online and offline integration [42] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a shift towards standardized and professional supply chains, with the chain restaurant rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024 [46][48] New Supply - The tourism sector is transitioning from a "sightseeing + ticket" model to one focused on content innovation and immersive experiences, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Haichang Ocean Park leading this change [50][53] - The sports industry is evolving to combine spectator and participatory sports, creating new social engagement opportunities through digital platforms [54] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading hotel chains like Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, and monitoring companies with strong supply chain advantages in the restaurant sector [6][8] - The report suggests that innovative companies in tourism, sports, and education sectors, particularly those utilizing AI and content innovation, are worth attention for potential growth [8][50]

社会服务/本地生活服务Ⅱ 美团-W（03690.HK） 2025 年 12 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 102.50 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 189.60/94.050 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 6,264.31 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 6,264.31 | | 总股本(亿股) | 61.12 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 61.12 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 61.86 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 美团-W 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 业绩不及预期，行业激烈竞 争预计延续—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2025.8.29 《加大海外及 AI 投入，待宏观环境复 苏驱动利润上修 —港股公司信息更 新报告》-2025.3.23 《短期业绩增速预期波动，整体利润 上行趋势不变 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.12.2 2025Q3 业绩不及预期，待竞争格 ...

11月28日晚上发布的美团财报，备受关注。12月1日，高盛发布最新报告，维持美团"买入"评级。高盛 认为，尽管美团面临着前所未有的激烈竞争和短期盈利压力，但其核心业务的领导地位、强大的执行能 力以及已经大幅回调的股价，使其在当前价位上依然具备投资价值。 第三季度，国内外卖战争可以用"惨烈"来形容，参与各方先后都提交了亏损的业绩。不过，在激烈的竞 争中，美团也展现了自己的优势。 用户侧，美团交易用户数突破8亿大关，美团APP的DAU(日活跃用户数)同比增长超过20%，餐饮外卖月 交易用户数也创下历史新高。经营侧，美团用比同行亏损额少一半的支出，维持了中高价订单市场 GTV的领先地位。同时，美团的闪购、AI、Keeta等业务也在第三季度全面发展。 "外卖价格战本质上是低质量低水平的恶性竞争，我们坚决反对。过去六个月已证明这种竞争无法为行 业创造真实价值，且不可持续。"美团创始人王兴在财报电话会上称，美团将聚焦做好正确的事：拓展 优质供给、保障快速可靠配送、保持价格实惠。在捍卫市场地位的同时，为整个行业创造更大价值。 战损比优势显著 过去半年，外界对于美团的最大疑问是，在烧钱式补贴的外卖大战中，美团能否守住自己的基 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 美团-W（03690.HK） 2025Q3 业绩点评：业绩低于预期，继续关注 竞争动态变化 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 276,745 | 337,592 | 364,534 | 415,409 | 478,472 | | 同比（%） | 25.82 | 21.99 | 7.98 | 13.96 | 15.18 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 13,856 | 35,807 | (21,574) | (3,982) | 19,631 | | 同比（%） | 307.23 | 158.43 | - | - | - | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 23,253 | 43,772 | (14,168) | 1,168 | 24,645 | | 同比（%） | 722.48 | 88.24 | - | - | 2,009.22 | | E ...

如果把今年夏天视为外卖与即时零售补贴大战的升级引爆点，那么三季度就是其后第一个完整被财报记 录下来的季度。 对美团来说，这份答卷并不轻松：收入955亿元，同比增长2%，经调整净亏损160亿元，其中最核心 的"核心本地商业"从去年的盈利，转为经营亏损141亿元。 在竞争对手宣称投入数百亿资源的背景下，美团不得不迎战，亏损数字直观反映了这场商战的惨烈程 度。 市场对这份成绩单已经有一定的预期，当前显然更关心的是未来： 亏损的底线在哪里？美团的投入产出比如何？以及，在激烈竞争下，美团的长期价值锚点是否依然牢 固？ 141亿亏损，买来的究竟是什么 站在财报的切面看，大额亏损是这场战役最直观的代价。 细拆成本端，更能看出这场战役的烈度。三季度，美团销售成本由568亿元跃升至703亿元，占收入比重 从60.7%抬升到73.6%；销售及营销开支则几乎翻倍，从180亿元激增至343亿元，在收入中的占比从 19.2%抬升至35.9%。 这背后，对应的是大幅提升的骑手补贴、配送成本和用户激励，表明美团正在用利润为用户体验和运力 保障"让路"。值得一提的是，美团一直在强化骑手和商家端的长期投入：10月，骑手养老保险补贴计划 推广至 ...

格隆汇研究院发布美团(3690.HK)3Q25更新报告《竞争呈正常化迹象，市场份额防御成焦点》。 美团于2025年11月29日港股盘后公布3Q25业绩，整体略低于预期，但管理层预计核心本地生活(CLC)经营亏损将在 4Q25收窄。3Q25收入同比增2%至955亿元，略低于市场预期；CLC收入同比降2.8%至674亿元(预期持平)，新业务收入 同比增16%至280亿元。CLC经营亏损141亿元(预期亏损130亿元)，经营利润率-21%；新业务经营亏损13亿元(优于预期 亏损23亿元)。非国际会计准则下净亏损160亿元(预期亏损140亿元)。 外卖业务继续在中高客单价订单中保持领先：AOV超过15元的订单GTV市占约2/3，而超过30元的订单市占逾70%。双 十一后竞争有所缓和，公司市占回升。闪购业务推出品牌卫星店闪电仓，双十一期间品牌销售增长约300%，本季度订 单量同比增长约30%。到店酒旅受高德"扫街榜"和抖音流量冲击，3Q25 GTV同比增18%，预计4Q仍承压。 Keeta全球化加速：香港业务已于10月实现盈利；卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋等中东市场持续扩张；巴西市场潜力突出。 管理层预计2026财年新业务亏 ...

Keeta accelerates global expansion in Hong Kong, Middle East, and Brazil. Management highlighted that Keeta turned profitable in Hong Kong in Oct 2025, only 29 months after launch—faster than originally expected. Profitability is expected to continue improving QoQ. In the Middle East, Keeta is expanding rapidly across Saudi Arabia and newly launched regions including Qatar (Aug 2025) and Kuwait/UAE (Oct 2025). Management sees substantial opportunities given the region's diverse cultures and under-penetrated ...

12月1日，港股股指早盘冲高回落，随后震荡走高，截止午盘，恒生指数涨0.81%报26068.05点，恒生科 技指数涨0.99%报5654.62点，国企指数涨0.64%报9188.61点，红筹指数涨1.14%报4241.22点。 盘面上，大型科技股多走高，阿里巴巴涨3.3%，腾讯控股涨0.82%，京东集团涨1.29%，小米集团跌 2%，网易涨2.15%，美团跌1.46%，快手涨0.96%，哔哩哔哩跌0.19%；有色板块大爆发，五矿资源、中 国黄金国际涨幅领先；苹果概念股、半导体芯片股、港口及海运股普遍上涨；中兴通讯大涨超11%表现 抢眼。另外，中国央行首次重磅定调稳定币，加密货币概念股多数走低，欧科云链跌近9%，新火科技 控股跌逾7%，雄岸科技跌近5%；泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、沪上阿姨等新消费概念股走低。 企业新闻 美团(03690.HK)：三季度实现营收955亿元，同比增长2%；核心本地商业经营利润转负，亏损141亿 元。 中国燃气(00384.HK)：发布截至2025年9月30日止六个月业绩，收入344.81亿港元；盈利13.34亿港元。 颖通控股(06883.HK)：发布截至2025年9月30日止六个月业绩， ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market debate regarding Meituan has shifted from "when will losses peak" to a deeper concern about "how much of Meituan's competitive moat remains" [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Meituan's adjusted operating loss for Q3 was 17.5 billion RMB, better than Goldman Sachs' expectation of an 18.8 billion RMB loss [2] - The market's initial reaction was negative due to cautious comments about future performance, despite some positive signals [2] - The basic scenario suggests a 17% upside potential, with a target price of 120 HKD, reflecting concerns over long-term profitability [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market has shifted focus from short-term subsidy wars in the food delivery business to evaluating Meituan's defensive capabilities against strong competitors like Alibaba and Douyin [2][3] - Meituan's unit economics are superior, with an estimated loss of 2.6 RMB per order compared to Alibaba's 5.2 RMB per order [3][6] - The competition is expected to intensify, with concerns that if rivals continue to invest heavily, Meituan's profit margins could be pressured [2][6] Group 3: Future Scenarios - The optimistic scenario suggests a potential price target of 152 HKD, contingent on verifying several conditions [4] - The pessimistic scenario indicates a potential drop to 77 HKD due to ongoing competitive pressures and losses [4] - Meituan's strong cash position allows it to endure prolonged competition, while rivals may face significant financial strain [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Meituan's market share is expected to recover as irrational subsidy wars normalize, allowing it to regain lost market share in low-ticket orders [3] - The long-term EBIT expectation for Meituan's food delivery business has been revised down from 0.8 RMB to 0.7 RMB per order due to increased competition [3] - The long-term profit margin expectation for the in-store, hotel, and tourism (IHT) business has been reduced from 30% to 27% due to competitive pressures from Douyin and Gaode Map [3]

Meituan (3690.HK) Equity Research 1 December 2025 | 6:18AM HKT 3Q25 Review: Sustaining GTV scale leadership; reframing bull/bear narratives; Buy 3690.HK 12m Price Target: HK$120.00 Price: HK$102.50 Upside: 17.1% Meituan reported narrower-than-expected 3Q losses with adj. operating loss of -Rmb17.5bn (vs. GSe of -Rmb18.8bn), where we estimate food delivery+instashopping losses of -Rmb19bn (GSe) came slightly better than expected, and new initiatives adj. operating loss came in better at -Rmb1.3bn (vs. GSe/VA ...