Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and slightly raises the SOTP target price from HKD 175.00 to HKD 180.00 due to improved earnings prospects [1] Core Views - The valuation for the food delivery business is set at USD 57 billion using a 15x 2024 P/E, reflecting a 60% discount compared to the industry average of 37.5x due to a smaller Total Addressable Market (TAM) [1] - The valuation for the in-store, hotel, and tourism business is set at USD 38 billion, also using a 15x 2024 P/E, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 19.2x, again due to a smaller TAM [1] - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x 2024 P/GMV, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 1.0x [17] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, food delivery revenue is expected to grow by 23% year-on-year, slightly below the 24% growth in order volume, with average order value (AOV) declining due to subdued consumer spending [5] - The adjusted EBIT for Q1 2024 is projected to be RMB 5,209 million, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase [10] - The adjusted net income for Q1 2024 is expected to be RMB 7,488 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [10] - The report forecasts total revenue growth of 18% for Q2 2024 and 19% for the full year 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.1% for Q2 2024 [16] Business Segment Insights - The new business segment's losses narrowed to RMB 2.75 billion in Q1 2024, with expectations of further reductions in losses in subsequent quarters [6] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to accelerate profit growth as competition stabilizes [5] - The food delivery and flash purchase business saw significant order volume growth, with flash purchase turning profitable in Q1 2024 due to high-margin product contributions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [15][19]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan achieved a revenue of 732.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.0%. The net profit was 53.7 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit of 74.9 billion CNY, up from 54.9 billion CNY in the same period last year [15][16]. - The core local business revenue reached 546.3 billion CNY, growing by 27.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services [16][19]. - New business revenue was 186.5 billion CNY, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in operational losses due to improved warehouse operations and marketing efficiency [16][19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2022A Revenue: 2199.5 billion CNY, 2023A Revenue: 2767.4 billion CNY, 2024E Revenue: 3186.7 billion CNY [7]. - 2022A Net Profit: -66.9 billion CNY, 2023A Net Profit: 138.6 billion CNY, 2024E Net Profit: 265.8 billion CNY [7]. - Operating Metrics: - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 52.1 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 7.1% [16]. - The gross margin improved to 35.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [16][19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the core local business and improvements in new business operations, with projected net profits of 265.8 billion CNY, 385.4 billion CNY, and 492.3 billion CNY for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [19].

美團-W（3690） 更新報告 為美團未來的利潤貢獻將會得到進一步釋放，新業務的 ROI 逐步提升，結合目前 港股互聯網企業普遍估值在 10-15 倍區間，分別給予美團外賣和到店酒旅業務 24 年扣稅利潤的 23 倍和 15 倍 PE 估值，得出 135 港元目標價，維持買入評級。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------------|-----------|-------| | 盈利摘要 \n截至12月31日止财政年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 股價表現 \n160 | | | | 总营业收入（人民币百万元） | 219,955 | 276,745 | 326,097 | 384,337 | 447,000 | 140 120 | | | | 变动(%) | 22.8% | 25.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [10][11][39]. Core Insights - The company's core local business has exceeded expectations, with new business segments accelerating their loss reduction. The report highlights strong revenue growth in the core local business and optimistic profitability in the instant retail sector [16][30][39]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.276 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 25.01%. The GAAP net profit was 5.369 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit margin of 7.3% [6][16]. - The report projects revenues of 331.2 billion yuan and 390.5 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 37.8 billion yuan and 53 billion yuan [39]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 54.63 billion yuan, up 27.38% year-over-year, with an operating profit of 9.699 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.69% increase [16][23]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 18.65 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.55%, with an operating loss of 2.757 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [16][29]. Business Segments - The instant delivery business showed strong growth, with a total of 5.465 billion orders in Q1, marking a 28.06% increase year-over-year. The report notes that the delivery service revenue reached 21.065 billion yuan [16][24]. - The community group buying business is experiencing accelerated loss reduction due to strategic optimizations, with revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [29][32]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's long-term business barriers and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook on the core local business and the potential for new business segments to contribute to overall performance [10][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from a more favorable competitive landscape in the local services market, particularly in the dine-in and travel sectors, as competition stabilizes [31][38].

财务数据 美团（3690.HK） 报告摘要 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 新业务减亏取得实质进展：优选业务减亏有实质突破，主要举措包括提高商品加 价率、优化用户补贴、关停低效率前置仓及自提点，聚焦自然留存及增长，减亏 趋势或在后续几个季度持续显现。 2024 年 06 月 11 日 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市 ...

财务数据 1 季度业绩超预期；外卖增速或回归常态化水平 美团 1 季度收入及经调整净利润超市场预期 6%/29%，即时配送订单同比增 28%， 到店酒旅经营利润率企稳回升。我们看好外卖业务兼具稳健性及敏捷性、到店 竞争格局好转、组织架构升级的潜在协同效应释放，给予外卖+到店酒旅业务 17 倍 2024 年市盈率估值，上调目标价至 131 港元，维持"买入"评级。 即时配送单量增长强劲：1）外卖：单量同比增 24%（日均单量 5,160 万），估 算收入增速为 23%，略低于单量增速，主要因 AOV 同比下降，用户及商户补贴 优化部分抵消影响。外卖年活跃用户增至约 5 亿人，高频用户的交易频次增速 快于平均。2）闪购：日均单量 840 万，维持强劲增长态势，交易用户数及频次 双提振，节假日高 AOV 订单占比增加及广告变现提升，带动 UE 转正。整体看， 即时配送经营利润同比增约 20%，反映平台运营适应宏观消费环境的敏捷度。 预测及估值：我们预计 2 季度收入同比增 18.5%，其中核心本地商业/新业务同 比增 17%/23%。考虑基数效应，预计 2 季度外卖单量增速放缓至 13%，AOV 下 降压力或将在下 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 买入（维持） ◼ 业绩超预期：美团 24Q1 实现营业收入 733 亿元，同比增长 25%，彭博一致 预期为 690 亿元；经调整归母净利润 75 亿元，彭博一致预期为 60 亿元。 公司收入利润好于预期。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司 Q1 利润好于我们预期，我们将公司 2024- 2026 年经调整利润由 337/472/597 亿元上调至 377/515/609 亿元，对应 2024- 2026 年经调整 PE 为 17/12/10 倍，维持"买入"评级。 2024Q1 业绩点评：利润超预期，关注到店酒 旅变现率修复 2024 年 06 月 11 日 [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 即时配送单量增长亮眼，利润持续释放。24Q1 公司即时配送交易笔数同比 增长 28.1%至 54.65 亿笔，好于一致预期。1）餐饮外卖我们测算得 24Q1 单 量同比增长 24%，外卖交易用户数大幅增加，交易频次增长更快。Q1 公司 继续为消费者提供高性价比供给，如"品牌卫星店"模式中 KA 商家可更 精简的成 ...

隐证券 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 美团-W 恒生指数 分析、估值方法的局限性说明 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | | | | 上海 | 深圳 | | 地址：上海市浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号陆家嘴金控广场 1 号 | 地址：深圳市福田区金田路 2030 号卓越世纪中心 1 号 | | 楼 2-3 层 | 楼 45 层 | | 邮编： 200120 | 邮编： 518000 | | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | 邮箱： research@kysec.cn | | 北京 | 西安 | | 地址：北京市西城区西直门外大街 18 号金贸大厦 C2 座 9 层 | 地址：西安市高新区锦业路 1 号都市之门 B 座 5 层 | | 邮编： 100044 | 邮编： 710065 | | 邮箱： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of HKD 121, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous target price [45][47]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, exceeding market expectations by 6.2%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 7.5 billion, surpassing market expectations by 29%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.2% [2][29]. - New business losses have significantly narrowed, with operational losses of RMB 2.76 billion, down from 32% to 14.8% year-on-year. Revenue from new businesses grew by 18.5% to RMB 15.7 billion [12][29]. - The core business saw a revenue increase of 27.4% to RMB 54.6 billion, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues growing by 25%, 27%, and 33% respectively. However, the operating profit only slightly increased by 2.7% [29]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY22, the company reported a revenue of RMB 219.96 billion, which is projected to grow to RMB 346.45 billion in FY24E and RMB 397.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 2.83 billion in FY22 to RMB 37.42 billion in FY24E and RMB 44.66 billion in FY25E [49]. - The operating profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.82 billion in FY22 to a profit of RMB 28.19 billion in FY24E and RMB 36.12 billion in FY25E [49]. Market Expectations - The stock price as of June 6, 2024, was HKD 112.7, with a target price of HKD 121, indicating potential upside [5][35]. - The report highlights that the delivery transaction volume grew by 28.1% year-on-year, reaching 5.46 billion transactions, which is better than expected [29].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 港元 112.70 | 目标价 港元 129.00↑ | 潜在涨幅 +14.5% | 2024 年 6 月 7 日 | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | 利润超预期，现价对应 | 16 | 倍 2024 | 年市盈率，有上调空间 | | 收入：核心商业上调约 14 亿元（上调 0.6%），主要考虑外卖/闪购业务变 现率提升，尤其是商户广告投放意愿增强。新业务上调约 19 亿元（上调 2.3%），主要受小象超市/快驴等业务及优选 SKU 加价率提升拉动。 交银国际研究 业绩要点：1）外卖单量（+24%）同比增速略快于收入（+23%），广告变 现提升及补贴优化抵消 AOV 降幅>5%，估算 UE ...