Core Insights - The real estate companies have been focusing on core cities for land acquisition, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities in the first three quarters, despite an 8% decrease in transaction area [1][6][27] - In the third quarter, the land market cooled down as the supply of quality land in core cities slowed, with the average premium rate for residential land dropping to 5.8% and transaction area and transfer fees decreasing by 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1][6][27] - The top 20 cities accounted for 61% of the national residential land transfer fees in the first three quarters, although this proportion decreased by 7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year due to the slowdown in land supply in core cities [1][15] Land Market Trends - The fourth quarter is typically a peak period for land supply, with expectations of increased market supply, but the heat of land auctions will depend on the recovery of new home sales [1][27] - The average premium rate for residential land has shown a downward trend, dropping to 3.8% in September, the lowest monthly level this year [9][27] - The land transfer fees for 300 cities reached 1.86 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 3.1% year-on-year, while the third quarter saw a decline of 10.4% in transfer fees [6][7] City Concentration and Performance - The land transfer fees in first-tier cities have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% in the first three quarters, while second-tier cities also experienced growth, albeit at a lower rate [10][15] - The performance of third and fourth-tier cities remains weak, with both land supply and transaction metrics declining more than in first and second-tier cities [10][12] - The top cities for land transfer fees include Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in fees during the first three quarters [15][18] Corporate Strategies and Acquisitions - The top 100 real estate companies increased their land acquisition amounts by 36.7% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises being the primary players in the market [18][24] - Companies are advised to focus on core cities and avoid high-priced land to ensure the safety, liquidity, and profitability of new projects [1][27] - Recent trends show companies forming joint ventures to acquire quality land at lower costs, indicating a strategic shift towards consolidating resources [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900.HK) announced a project management service agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate, which is expected to enhance project quality without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management, a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Greentown China, providing project management services for a specific project [1] - The selection of Greentown Real Estate Construction Management as the service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring compliance with market practices and the company's commercial interests [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will leverage the company's expertise in property development and project management in China, thereby driving project construction and improving quality [1] - The terms and costs of the agreement were determined based on the bidding documents and are aligned with market norms [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900) has entered into a real estate development management agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate for project management services, enhancing its operational capabilities without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is set to commence on October 20, 2025, and involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management providing project management services for a construction project located in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province [1] - The total construction area of the project is approximately 90,711 square meters, intended for residential property development [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will allow the company to leverage its expertise in property development and project management in China, thereby improving project quality and construction efficiency [1] - The selection of the project management service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring that the terms and costs align with market practices and the company's business interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900) has entered into a real estate development management agreement with Hangzhou Zhongyi Jiangchen Real Estate for project management services, enhancing its revenue potential without significant capital investment [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is set to commence on October 20, 2025, and involves Greentown Real Estate Construction Management providing project management services for a residential property development in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, with a total construction area of approximately 90,711 square meters [1] - The selection of the project management service provider was conducted through a competitive bidding process, ensuring that Greentown Real Estate Construction Management was chosen based on comprehensive evaluation and comparison of multiple bidders [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board believes that this agreement will allow the company to leverage its expertise and experience in property development and project management in China, thereby improving the quality of the project while generating income without heavy capital expenditure [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 關連交易 提供項目管理服務 於2025年10月20日，綠 城 房 地 產 建 設 管 理（本 公 司 非 全 資 附 屬 公 司）與（其 中 包 括）杭 州 中 宜 江 晨 置 業 訂 立 該 協 議。根 據 該 協 議，綠 城 房 地 產 建 設 管 理 同 意 就 該 項 目 向 杭 州 中 宜 江 晨 置 業 提 供 項 目 管 理 服 務。 上市規則的涵義 於 本 公 告 日 期，中 交 集 團 及 其 附 屬 公 司 持 有733,456,293股 股 份，佔 本 公 司 已 發行股本約28.88%。因 此，根 據 上 市 規 則，中 交 集 團 為 本 公 司 的 主 要 股 東。 故 此，中 交 集 團 及 其 聯 繫 人（包 括 中 交 集 團 的 間 接 非 全 資 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for buying the stocks of New Town Holdings (601155), Greentown China (03900), and China Jinmao (00817) with target prices of 18, 11.7, and 2.1 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a year-on-year increase in transactions during the National Day holiday, marking the first positive growth since 2020. The total number of transactions in 30 major cities reached 4,304 units, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][13]. - There is a clear market differentiation, with first-tier and third-tier cities performing well, showing transaction increases of 18.3% and 24.0% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 25.9% [1][16]. - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, driven by increased supply in core cities and recovering demand in non-core cities, indicating a potential sales growth [12][30]. Summary by Sections 1. National Day Holiday Market Performance - The real estate market during the 2025 National Day holiday showed a slight improvement compared to 2024, with 4,304 transactions recorded, the first year-on-year increase since 2020 [1][13]. - First-tier cities recorded 1,492 transactions, a growth of 18.3% from 2024, while third-tier cities saw 1,514 transactions, up 24.0%. In contrast, second-tier cities experienced a decline to 1,298 transactions, down 25.9% [16][19]. 2. High-frequency Data and Market Heat - High-frequency data has limitations in accurately reflecting the real estate market's heat due to statistical discrepancies and data quality issues. Daily transaction data tends to be lower during holidays [22][23]. - New housing supply and the number of viewings for second-hand homes provide better insights into market demand and developer sentiment. In September, the approved pre-sale area for new homes reached 705 million square meters, the highest monthly figure for 2025 [2][26]. 3. Outlook for the Fourth Quarter - The report anticipates a recovery in new home sales driven by strong land acquisition by leading developers and the introduction of quality projects in core cities. Non-core cities are expected to benefit from price adjustments and lower mortgage rates, enhancing rental yield advantages [3][30]. - Key companies to watch include those reversing difficulties like Gemdale Corporation and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition strength such as Greentown China and China Jinmao [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a low valuation in the real estate sector, recommending to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate down by 2.3% and Hong Kong real estate down by 2.8% in the week of October 11-17 [1]. - The land market's premium rate is at a low level, with an average premium rate of 3% for residential land transactions in 300 cities [1]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 402 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 165% but a year-on-year decrease of 20% [2]. - The average opening sales rate for projects in September increased by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 39% [3]. - The new long-term loans for residents in September increased by 250 billion yuan, indicating a rebound in financing [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - A-share real estate sector ranked 15th with a decline of 2.3%, while Hong Kong real estate ranked 8th with a decline of 2.8% [1][17]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong fell by 2.4%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 3.7% [22]. Land Market - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 859 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26% but a year-on-year decrease of 46% [25]. - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to now is 32,117 million square meters, down 10.2% year-on-year [25]. New Housing Sales - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new housing sales in 47 cities totaled 402 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 165% but a year-on-year decrease of 20% [32]. - Sales in first-tier cities increased by 182% week-on-week but decreased by 31% year-on-year [35]. Second-hand Housing Sales - In the same week, second-hand housing sales in 22 cities totaled 266 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 182% but a year-on-year decrease of 18% [41]. - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 181% but a year-on-year decrease of 21% [41]. Financing Trends - The new long-term loans for residents in September amounted to 250 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200 billion yuan [4][14]. - The cumulative new long-term loans from January to September decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property stocks experienced a widespread decline on October 17, with notable drops in several major companies [1] Company Performance - Sunac China (01918.HK) fell by 3.85%, trading at 1.5 HKD [1] - Ronshine China (03301.HK) decreased by 3.31%, with a price of 0.175 HKD [1] - New World Development (01030.HK) saw a decline of 2.19%, priced at 2.23 HKD [1] - Greentown China (03900.HK) dropped by 2.05%, currently at 8.59 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China is experiencing a downturn, with major companies like Sunac China and R&F Properties seeing significant stock declines, while analysts express cautious optimism for recovery in core cities [1] Industry Summary - The current real estate cycle is in a "deep water zone," indicating a prolonged period of low performance, particularly affecting companies in the sector [1] - Analysts from Huatai Securities are optimistic about the recovery pace in core cities, especially first-tier cities, as the risks in the real estate chain may have been sufficiently digested [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts continued pressure on real estate companies' performance in Q3, primarily due to declining sales since 2021 leading to lower settlements and profit margins [1] Company Summary - Sunac China (01918) shares fell by 3.85% to HKD 1.5, while R&F Properties (03301) dropped 3.31% to HKD 0.175, indicating a broader trend of declining stock prices among major real estate firms [1] - New City Development (01030) and Greentown China (03900) also experienced declines of 2.19% and 2.05%, respectively, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] - Analysts expect a weak recovery in the sector's performance between 2025 and 2026, with increasing differentiation in performance among companies as profit margins stabilize and impairments are cleared [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the real estate sector in China is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in stock prices for major property companies [1] - Major property stocks such as Sunac China, Ronshine China, New City Development, and Greentown China have seen declines of 3.85%, 3.31%, 2.19%, and 2.05% respectively [1] - Huatai Securities suggests that the current real estate cycle is in a "deep water zone," but there is optimism for a recovery in core cities, particularly first-tier cities [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the performance of property companies will continue to be under pressure in Q3, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 leading to lower settlements [1] - The article notes that previous price cuts and promotions have negatively impacted profit margins, but there is an expectation for a weak recovery in the sector's performance from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The report highlights that the performance divergence among companies is expected to intensify as the industry stabilizes and profit margins reach a bottom [1]