证券时报网讯，中金公司研报指出，基准情形下，港股仍没有完全摆脱震荡格局，原因在于估值和风险 溢价空间不大，盈利改善又需要更大刺激，所以在指数层面上更强的期待需要以更大的压力为前提，这 也是在"应激式"政策思路下，更大规模刺激出台的条件。 不过，港股估值和仓位出清更彻底，盈利结构更好，都使其在合适的催化剂下更易反弹。 因此"反弹是间歇，结构是主线"，在低迷的左侧逐渐布局，在亢奋的右侧适度获利转向结构，似乎是一 个较为有效的策略。 在整体震荡格局的基准假设下，"在低迷的左侧逐渐布局，在亢奋的右侧适度获利"转向结构，似乎是一 个较为有效的策略。 行业上，建议重点关注三类结构：一是行业自身供给和政策周期出清的板块，如果还有边际的需求改善 效果会更好，互联网等部分消费服务、家电、纺服、电子；二是政策支持方向，如以旧换新下的家电、 汽车，以及及自主科技领域的计算机、半导体等产业趋势；三是稳定回报，如国企高分红。 中长期看，关注符合消费新趋势，以及出海破局下的alpha机会，如中端制造（乘用车、工程机械、电 池、电气机械、纺织机械等）、传媒、新零售。 校对：姚远 ...

证券时报e公司讯，中金公司2025年A股展望指出，底部可能已过，2025年投资者风险偏好有望整体好 于2024年，结构性机会进一步增多。 展望2025年，仍需正视宏观范式转变对经济基本面的挑战，但市场中期底部或已在2024年出现，会否实 现趋势反转取决于政策能否最终扭转低通胀环境、改善投资者预期。 2024年市场驱动力主要体现为估值修复，2025年能否由估值驱动成功切换至基本面驱动至关重要，同时 不可忽视A股经历长周期回调后，国内居民资产和全球资金的配置需求或有更积极的边际变化。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，中金公司研报认为，针对A股市场而言，本次化债方案基本符合市场预期，但本周A 股市场已出现较大涨幅并且部分指数临近前期高点，反映市场对于政策预期相对较高，未来市场难免波 动加大，但短期波动不改变市场向好趋势。 此前我们强调了政策信号的重要性，9月底政策信号初步显现，而本次财政方案的落实则是政策信号进 一步明确，而且前期财政部提及的多项工作仍在研究和审议中，明年工作方向也逐渐明确，未来政策落 实仍然值得期待。 此外，近期对市场影响较大因素还包括资金面，当前A股市场资金面处于相对活跃状态，近期两市日均 成交额保持在2万亿元以上，上交所公布的10月A股新增开户数达685万户，较9月环比大幅提升，为历 史单月第三高的水平；两融余额快速修复至1.77万亿元，在前期政策预期改善之后，场外增量资金情绪 较高成为市场表现韧性的重要支持因素。 展望后市，当前投资者政策预期偏高，预期修正或导致市场短期面临一定波动，但结合政策信号基本形 成，以及当前资金面相对积极状态，对于市场后市表现不宜悲观，短期波动后市场有望延续震荡上行态 势，中期的空间则取决于基本面修复预期能否实质性改善。 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was significantly impacted by foreign exchange losses, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 40% YoY to RMB 630 million [2] - The proprietary trading business showed significant improvement, with Q1-Q3 2024 income reaching RMB 7.46 billion, up 7% YoY [2] - The investment banking business continued to face pressure, with Q1-Q3 2024 income down 21% YoY to RMB 2.06 billion [2] - The asset management business saw a 12% YoY decline in Q1-Q3 2024 income to RMB 840 million [2] - The brokerage business revenue fell 27% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024 to RMB 2.56 billion, with Q3 revenue down 22% YoY to RMB 790 million [2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 total operating income decreased by 23% YoY to RMB 13.449 billion [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company dropped by 37.97% YoY to RMB 2.858 billion [1] - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 10% YoY to RMB 4.539 billion [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 40% YoY to RMB 630 million [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net interest expense increased by 44% YoY to RMB 1.193 billion [2] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 4.484 billion, RMB 5.548 billion, and RMB 5.934 billion respectively [2] - 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be RMB 0.93, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.23 respectively [2] - Current market value corresponds to 2024-2026 PB (H) valuations of 0.68x, 0.63x, and 0.59x respectively [2] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 14.38 [4] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 7.81/24.65 [4] - P/B ratio: 0.78x [4] - HKD market capitalization: RMB 27.375 billion [4] Fundamental Data - Net asset per share (RMB): 18.52 [5] - Asset-liability ratio: 83.35% [5] - Total shares outstanding: 4.827 billion [5] - Tradable shares: 1.904 billion [5] Business Segments - Proprietary trading: Q3 2024 income reached RMB 3.21 billion, up 26% YoY and 34% QoQ [2] - Investment banking: Q3 2024 income was RMB 780 million, up 24% YoY but down 6% QoQ [2] - Asset management: Q3 2024 income was RMB 280 million, down 5% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - Brokerage: Q3 2024 income was RMB 790 million, down 22% YoY and 16% QoQ [2]

证券研究报告 金融公司|公司点评|中金公司（601995） 业绩表现承压，自营尚待修复 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月01日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 中金公司发布 2024 三季报，2024 前三季度公司累计实现营业收入 134.49 亿，yoy-23.00%； 归母净利润 28.58 亿，yoy-37.97%；加权平均 ROE 2.64%，较去年同期减少 2.20pct。其中 2024Q3实现营收45.39亿元，yoy-10.03%/qoq-9.91%;归母净利润6.30亿元，yoy-39.82%/qoq36.30% |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 耿张逸 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 金融公司|公司点评 2024年11月01日 glzqdatemark2 中金公司(601995) 业绩表现承压，自营尚待修复 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------| | | | | 行 业： | 非银金融/证券Ⅱ | ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 截至月份: 2024年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 中國國際金融股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2024年11月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03908 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was below expectations, with significant declines in both revenue and profit [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from capital market reforms in the future, although the recovery of performance remains uncertain in the short term [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.86 billion yuan, down 38.0% year-on-year [4][6]. - The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.64%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions from various business segments for the first three quarters of 2024 were as follows: proprietary trading (55.5%), brokerage (19.0%), investment banking (15.3%), asset management (6.2%), and other businesses (12.7%) [6]. - The proprietary trading business showed a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, while brokerage revenue decreased by 27.1% [6]. Brokerage and Investment Banking - The brokerage business faced continuous pressure, with net income of 2.56 billion yuan, a decline of 27.1% year-on-year [6]. - The investment banking segment also struggled, with a significant drop in IPO fundraising, down 88.4% year-on-year, and a net income decrease of 21.4% to 2.06 billion yuan [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging opportunities in key industry mergers and acquisitions to enhance market share and performance recovery [6]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 4.91 billion yuan, 5.27 billion yuan, and 5.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.02, 1.09, and 1.18 yuan [6][8].

证券时报e公司讯，中金公司研报称，2024年前三季度A股盈利同比下滑0.4%，房地产、新能源及钢铁 影响仍大。 三季度我国经济增长动能边际放缓，物价水平持续偏弱，全A/金融/非金融前三季度净利润同 比-0.4%/+8.0%/-6.9%，其中单三季度全A/金融/非金融净利润同比+4.9%/+25.3%/-10.0%。 非金融方面，前三季度营收同比进一步放缓至-1.7%（一季度及上半年分别为0.8%/-0.4%），多数行业 营收增长出现放缓，其中PPI同比降幅走阔导致能源和原材料营收增速放缓明显，叠加费用率的上升和 利润率的下滑，非金融净利润同比降幅相比上半年（-6.2%）小幅走阔，其中三季度房地产、钢铁和电 源设备三个行业单季度亏损影响7.1个百分点的业绩下滑幅度。 金融板块三季度盈利增长明显改善，季度末市场大幅上涨带动非银板块投资收益改善，银行仍有息差压 力但投资收益改善支持盈利反弹，三季度保险/证券盈利同比分别+460.2%/+39.6%。 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to 1.05x PB for 2024 [4] Core Views - Light capital business pressure and exchange rate fluctuations have dragged down performance [3] - The company has long-term advantages in internationalization and specialization, benefiting from the construction of a world-class investment bank [3] - Revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 13.45 billion and RMB 2.86 billion, down 23.0% and 38.0% YoY respectively [4] - Q3 single-quarter profit was RMB 630 million, down 39.8% YoY [4] - Weighted average ROE decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 2.64% [4] - Adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) declined due to contributions from wealth management/brokerage (-24%), investment banking (-14%), asset management (-3%), net interest (-9%), investment (+12%), and other business income (-62%) [4] - The decline in other business income was mainly due to a net exchange loss of RMB 90 million in the first three quarters, compared to a net exchange gain of RMB 2.06 billion in the same period last year [4] - The company's international and professional capabilities are expected to consolidate business advantages and build a world-class investment bank [4] - Wealth management business continues to improve asset allocation and investment advisory services, while investment banking business innovates fixed-income products and enhances M&A service capabilities [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 20.65 billion, with a YoY growth of 9.15% [7] - Net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 5.44 billion, with a YoY growth of 31.92% [7] - PE ratio for 2024E is 11.73, and PB ratio is 0.67 [7] Market Data - 52-week stock price range: HKD 7.87 to HKD 24.45 [5] - Current market capitalization: HKD 69.42 billion [5]

中国国际金融股份有限公司 关于中巨芯科技股份有限公司 股东向特定机构投资者询价转让股份的核查报告 上海证券交易所： 中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"组织券商"）受中巨芯科技股份有限公司 （以下简称"中巨芯""上市公司"）股东深圳远致富海十一号投资企业（有限合伙） （以下简称"远致富海"或"转让方"）委托，担任本次中巨芯股东向特定机构投资者 询价转让（以下简称"本次询价转让"）的组织券商。 经核查，组织券商就本次询价转让的股东、受让方是否符合《上海证券交易所科创 板上市公司自律监管指引第 4 号——询价转让和配售》（以下简称"《询价转让和配售 指引》"）要求，本次询价转让的询价、转让过程与结果是否公平、公正，是否符合《询 价转让和配售指引》的规定作出如下报告说明。 一、本次询价转让概述 （一）本次询价转让转让方 截至 2024 年 10 月 25 日，转让方所持公司股份的数量、比例情况如下： | 序号 | 参与转让的股东名称 | 截至 2024 年 | 10 月 25 | 日收 | 持股比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 盘持股数量（股） | | ...