Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The public fund sales fee reform has been smoothly implemented, with a focus on benefiting investors and addressing market concerns. The reform is expected to save approximately 51 billion CNY in investment costs annually, with a comprehensive fee rate reduction of about 20% [5]. - The new rules on redemption fees have been established to protect market liquidity while benefiting investors. The differentiation in redemption fees is aimed at encouraging long-term investment practices [5]. - The classification of products and supporting policies have been upgraded to create a more refined fee rate regulatory system, promoting the development of index funds and equity funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management institutions' service capabilities in the context of the growing equity fund market, suggesting a focus on companies like Huatai Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations on public fund sales fees, effective from January 1, 2026, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reduction process [5]. - The third phase of the reform is projected to provide approximately 30 billion CNY in annual benefits to investors [5]. Product Classification - The new regulations simplify redemption fee structures into three tiers and allow flexible arrangements for different types of funds, particularly benefiting individual investors in index funds [5]. - The maximum subscription fee rates have been refined, with specific caps for different fund types, encouraging the growth of index funds [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms and the anticipated growth in the equity fund market, including Huatai Securities (AH), CICC (H), Guotai Junan (AH), and CITIC Securities (AH) [5].

消息显示，美国总统特朗普预计将于1月宣布下一任美联储主席人选。目前来看，最终人选会在以下三人中选出，即白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 中国外汇交易中心发布公告，调整CFETS人民币汇率指数货币篮子的权重以及BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数的货币篮子和权重。新版指 数自2026年1月1日起生效。调降美元、欧元、日元在CFETS人民币汇率指数货币篮子的权重。 在年末美元走弱和集中结汇等因素共同影响下，人民币对美元汇率在2025年年末迎来大涨。展望2026年，短期内人民币有望保持强势， 中长期看人民币汇率或将维持温和走升的态势。 新华财经北京1月4日电（马萌伟）2026年第一个交易日（1月2日），离岸人民币兑美元延续了2025年以来的强势升值态势，逾两年半来 首次涨破6.97。 亚洲交易时段盘中，离岸人民币兑美元盘中涨超百点，一举升破6.97，最高触及6.9678。截至北美交易时段收盘，离岸人民币报6.9699。 统计数据显示，2025年，在岸人民币兑美元累计上涨3098个基点报6.989，涨幅约为4%；离岸人民币累计上涨约3600点，涨幅超过 4.93%；人 ...

记者丨 崔文静 编辑丨巫燕玲 当前，我国正加速迈向"金融强国"的新征程。作为资本市场的核心中介与关键枢纽，证券行业 被赋予更高期望：不仅要更高效地服务实体经济，还要在全球金融舞台上争取更大话语权。如 何平衡"立足本土"与"竞逐全球"这双重使命，成为券业发展的重要议题。 近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了中金公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁王曙光。他明确指 出， 服务国内实体经济与争夺全球金融定价权是"双向赋能"、协同共进的关系。唯有深耕本 土，才能锻造国际竞争的核心能力；同时，只有争取全球定价权，才能反哺国内高质量发展。 面向更宏伟的全球愿景，王曙光认为，中国投行跻身国际一流投行的当务之急在于"锻内功、 转思维"，转向价值创造，全力弥补在深度研究、协同服务、全球风控与高端人才等方面的关 键短板。 尤为值得关注的是，在王曙光看来，中国投行对全球金融秩序更深层次的贡献，并非简单的定 价权争夺，而在于将中国市场实践中形成的、强调金融与实体经济深度融合的"赋能型"发展范 式，以开放合作的姿态贡献于世界，推动全球金融治理体系朝着更加包容、均衡和可持续的方 向演进。这一系列判断，为理解中国券商在新时代的战略定位与转型方向提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suplay Inc. is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the collectible card market and cultural products, with a strong position in China and a unique global presence as a Chinese brand in the collectible card industry [2][8]. Business Overview - Suplay, established in 2019, integrates globally recognized intellectual properties (IPs) into its product lines and aims to promote Chinese culture through selected products [2]. - The flagship brand "卡卡沃" (Kakawo) holds a pioneering and leading position in China's collectible card market, ranking first in the collectible non-battle card segment by GMV in 2024, surpassing the combined total of the second and third-ranked competitors [2][8]. - Suplay targets adult consumers with strong purchasing power and a keen interest in cultural and entertainment content, with over 99% of its consumers aged 18 and above [2]. Product Positioning - Suplay's card products are positioned as high-end collectibles, with individual card prices exceeding RMB 10, employing a limited release strategy that emphasizes both artistic quality and collectible value [5]. - The value of collectible cards is anchored by international third-party grading institutions, with higher submission rates indicating greater collectible attributes compared to lower-priced cards [5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending December 31, 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025, Suplay reported revenues of RMB 145.725 million, RMB 280.504 million, and RMB 202.768 million respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 2.949 million, RMB 49.115 million, and RMB 35.544 million [12][13]. - The revenue breakdown shows collectible products generating RMB 47.946 million (32.9%) in 2023 and projected to grow to RMB 117.121 million (41.8%) in 2024, while consumer products are expected to decrease from RMB 97.779 million (67.1%) in 2023 to RMB 163.383 million (58.2%) in 2024 [6]. Shareholder Structure - Prior to the IPO, the major shareholder is Mr. Huang Wanjun, holding 72.86% of the shares, with other shareholders including Ms. Li Jing (3.11%) and MiHoYo (11.86%) [7][9]. Management Team - The board of directors consists of six members, including two executive directors: Mr. Huang Wanjun (Chairman and CEO) and Ms. Li Jing (CFO) [10]. - The management team includes operational and supply chain partners, indicating a diverse leadership structure [11]. Market Position - Suplay is recognized as one of China's most prominent collectible card brands and is the first to receive comprehensive certification from four major global grading institutions [8]. - The company has a high submission rate for grading, ranking first among Chinese collectible card brands and third globally in the non-sport collectible card category [8].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese securities industry underwent profound changes under the strategy of "cultivating first-class investment banks," marked by resource integration, technological empowerment, and ecological restructuring, signaling a new chapter for the industry. Group 1: Major Events - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025 established a new "dual leader" pattern in the industry, with the combined entity "Guotai Haitong" reporting a net profit of 22.074 billion yuan, closely following CITIC Securities' 23.159 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [4] - The first "three-in-one" integration in the industry is being planned by CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, which, if completed, will create a new model for industry integration with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.551734 trillion yuan by December 29, 2025, accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with a 288% year-on-year increase in new accounts opened in September 2025 [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and renamed the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" in 2025, focusing on guiding the industry to serve national strategies and enhancing professional capabilities [7] - AI applications in securities firms accelerated, with leading institutions showcasing advancements at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, enhancing capabilities in investment research and risk control [8] Group 3: Leadership and Talent Dynamics - Over 10 chief economists in the securities industry changed positions in 2025, primarily due to the merger wave, indicating a significant reshuffling of talent [9] - More than 50 securities firms experienced changes in leadership roles, with approximately one-third of firms undergoing a "leadership change," driven by factors such as retirement and shareholder changes due to mergers [10] Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - Despite the rising trend of "anti-involution," a price war among securities firms intensified, with commission rates dropping to as low as 0.01% and financing rates falling below 4%, highlighting the need for the industry to return to its core financial services [11] - Securities firms were first included as issuers of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds in May 2025, with total issuance exceeding 80 billion yuan since then, enhancing their competitive edge [12] - The wave of public fund business that began in 2022 receded in 2025, with several institutions withdrawing their applications for public fund qualifications, indicating a shift in business models [14]

Core Viewpoint - The ranking of financing service companies is based on a comprehensive evaluation of both hard and soft strength indicators, reflecting their market value and industry position [1][2]. Hard Strength Indicators - Hard strength indicators focus on data-driven market competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of quantitative metrics in assessing a company's performance [2]. Soft Strength Assessment - Soft strength evaluation considers service quality and innovation capabilities, highlighting the need for companies to provide unique and effective solutions to clients [2]. Top 4 Companies Overview - The top four companies have emerged as industry benchmarks due to their hard and soft strengths, effectively matching diverse financing needs of enterprises [2]. 1. Houxin Capital - Houxin Capital is a leading player in vertical financing for the education sector, focusing on comprehensive services including financing, mergers and acquisitions, IPO guidance, and value management [3]. - The company has a strong team with an average of over 10 years of industry experience, leveraging a global resource network to optimize financing costs and achieve capital goals [3]. - Successful case examples include assisting a vocational technical college in increasing profits from 2.65 million in 2023 to an expected 24 million in 2024 through strategic resource optimization [4]. 2. Guotai Junan - Guotai Junan specializes in capital operations for small and medium-sized enterprises, creating an ecosystem that combines sponsorship and direct investment [5]. - The company has a market share exceeding 15% in equity financing, demonstrating its strong market recognition [5]. - A notable case involved providing integrated services for a small enterprise, leading to significant growth in performance and stock price [6]. 3. Zhonghe Guarantee - Zhonghe Guarantee, backed by state capital, focuses on policy-based financing for small and micro enterprises, with a registered capital of 5.126 billion and a guarantee balance exceeding 80 billion in 2024 [7]. - The company offers competitive guarantee rates, significantly reducing financing costs for small enterprises [7]. - A key case involved providing credit guarantee services to a biotech company, enabling it to secure an 8 million loan for technology development [8]. 4. CICC International Department - CICC International Department is a leader in cross-border financing, with capabilities in underwriting for Hong Kong, US, and Chinese concept stocks [8]. - The department led the issuance of over 20 billion USD in overseas bonds for Chinese enterprises in 2024, showcasing its significant influence in the international bond market [8]. - A successful case included serving as the sole sponsor for a leading new energy vehicle company’s IPO in Hong Kong, raising over 5 billion HKD [8]. Financing Service Selection Guide - Companies should choose financing service institutions based on their specific needs and risk avoidance strategies [9]. - For startups needing less than 5 million, localized institutions are recommended for quick approvals [12]. - Growth-stage companies should consider full-license brokers or policy guarantee institutions to balance financing costs and capital operation planning [12]. - Large enterprises should rely on top institutions for complex financing needs [12]. Future Trends in Financing Services - The financing service industry is expected to accelerate towards specialization, verticalization, and intelligence by 2025, shifting competition from scale to comprehensive strength [13]. - The highlighted companies provide clear financing solutions tailored to different sectors and stages of development, emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the trading performance and financial metrics of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) as of December 30, with a slight decline in stock price and significant trading volume [1] - On December 30, CICC's financing buy amounted to 131 million yuan, with a net financing purchase of 31.27 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for CICC reached 3.08 billion yuan, with financing balance accounting for 2.99% of the market capitalization, indicating a high level of leverage compared to historical data [1] Group 2 - CICC, established on July 31, 1995, operates in various segments including investment banking, equity sales and trading, fixed income, wealth management, and investment management, with wealth management contributing the largest share of revenue at 32.58% [2] - As of September 30, CICC reported a revenue of 20.76 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.36%, and a net profit of 6.57 billion yuan, up 129.75% year-on-year [3] - CICC has distributed a total of 5.36 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.04 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, CICC had 118,900 shareholders, a decrease of 4.10% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 4.28% to 24,662 shares [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 123 million shares, an increase of 51.43 million shares from the previous period, indicating growing institutional interest [4] - The top four shareholders include various ETFs, with notable increases in holdings for the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange market, particularly the performance of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies during the year-end period of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - The US Dollar Index stabilized around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week. Despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations, concerns about the labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Non-USD currencies experienced gains, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and Canadian Dollar appreciating by 1.57%, 1.37%, 1.34%, and 0.95% respectively. The British Pound rose by 0.88%, while the Euro saw a modest increase of 0.5% [1][2]. - The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.75% following a dovish rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [1]. - The offshore Yuan broke the 7.0 mark, indicating a strong appreciation trend, influenced by a weak USD and increased year-end settlement demand [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights that the appreciation of the Yuan is supported by seasonal factors, but the pace of appreciation is limited by the central bank's policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate [5][6]. - The central bank's recent adjustments to the midpoint exchange rate and the highest recorded scale of counter-cyclical factor adjustments (301 pips) indicate a strong effort to manage the Yuan's appreciation rate [5]. - The report anticipates that after a short-term strong performance, the Yuan's appreciation rate may flatten out, with a potential stabilization around the 7.0 level in early 2026 [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases from both the US and China, including the FOMC minutes and China's PMI, are expected to influence market sentiment and the Yuan's trajectory [6]. Market Predictions - The forecast for the CNY/USD exchange rate for the upcoming week is set between 7.00 and 7.03, indicating continued appreciation [3]. - The Euro/USD exchange rate is predicted to range between 1.1750 and 1.1840, with potential for volatility based on economic performance and central bank policies [7][8]. Conclusion - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable as liquidity remains low during the holiday season. The focus will be on the Yuan's performance and the effectiveness of the central bank's stabilization policies as the year concludes [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating that the market has moved past its bottom phase and is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to experience a shift from valuation recovery to improved earnings expectations, with a projected overall profit growth of approximately 4.7% for 2026 [3][36]. - It highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors, including the restructuring of the global monetary order and the ongoing AI technology revolution, which are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets [2][12]. - The report suggests that the market may experience a balanced style shift, with a focus on sectors benefiting from high growth and innovation, as well as those poised for cyclical recovery [4][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The report discusses the ongoing restructuring of international order and its impact on China's industrial innovation, suggesting that the safety of dollar assets is being questioned, which may benefit Chinese assets [12][16]. - It notes that while domestic demand still needs repair, external demand shows resilience, with exports expected to remain stable due to China's manufacturing advantages [13][14]. Earnings Outlook - The report forecasts a positive earnings growth trajectory for 2026, with non-financial corporate earnings expected to grow by around 8.2%, driven by policy implementation and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [36][37]. - It highlights that the banking sector may see stable earnings, while the brokerage and insurance sectors could benefit from an active capital market, although growth rates may moderate due to high base effects [37][39]. Structural Analysis - The report identifies key investment opportunities in high-growth sectors such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to contribute positively to overall market performance [38][39]. - It emphasizes the importance of the capacity cycle, noting that many industries are approaching improvement points after a period of capital expenditure reduction, which could lead to enhanced earnings elasticity [39][40]. - The report also points out that overseas expansion remains a significant growth opportunity for companies, with an increasing share of revenue coming from international markets [40].

Core Viewpoint - The competition landscape among securities firms in the A-share IPO market has solidified with the successful listings of companies like Hengdongguang and Xinguoyi, marking the end of the 2025 A-share IPO season [1] Group 1: Overall Market Dynamics - Leading securities firms maintain a strong competitive edge, while smaller firms have made breakthroughs in niche segments. The top five firms account for nearly half of the total IPO projects in the market [2] - In 2025, the top five securities firms by IPO underwriting numbers are Guotai Haitong (19), CITIC Securities (17), CITIC Jianou (12), China Merchants Securities (10), and Huatai United (9) [3] Group 2: Differentiated Competition - The dual innovation board is a key platform for financing technology and emerging industries, raising a total of 633.71 billion yuan, which constitutes nearly half of the annual IPO fundraising total. This area is highly competitive among securities firms [4] - CITIC Securities leads the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an underwriting scale of 168.95 billion yuan, capturing over 44% of the market share. Notable projects like Moore Threads contributed significantly to this figure [4] - The top five firms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in terms of underwriting numbers are CITIC Securities (7), CITIC Jianou (3), CICC (3), Huatai United (2), and others [5] - For the Growth Enterprise Market, Guotai Haitong and China Merchants Securities have a notable lead with 6 and 4 projects respectively, and underwriting amounts of 57.61 billion yuan and 45.46 billion yuan [6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Association released the 2025 evaluation results for securities firms' investment banking business, indicating a focus on quality control and compliance. Twelve firms received an A rating, with five firms maintaining this rating for two consecutive years [9] - The dynamic optimization of the evaluation system reflects the ongoing trend of strict regulation and compliance in the securities industry [9] Group 4: Outlook for 2026 - The IPO market is expected to remain active in 2026, with a structural optimization characterized by stable volume and improved quality. The dual innovation sector is anticipated to see an expansion in financing and quality [10] - Hard technology companies in sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and biomedicine are expected to increase their presence in the capital market [10] - The competition among securities firms will intensify, focusing on serving technological innovation and industrial upgrades, with a continued evolution in the competitive landscape between leading firms and niche market leaders [10]