在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩余时间的钴出口配 额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 其声明概述了各家公司在今年剩余时间内可以出口多少钴，并表示12月的配额将自动续期，作为明年的 月度配额。 洛阳钼业获得了2025年剩余时间内略高于三分之一的配额，预计其2026年将能够出口31200吨，这仅占 其刚果矿山去年总产量的27%。去年洛阳钼业的钴产量占全球总产量的40%以上。 尽管受到出口限制，该公司上半年的产量实际上略有增长。各家矿商一直在囤积钴，同时继续出口铜 ——这两种金属在刚果同时开采。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友 ...

这个中非国家已采取严格控制措施以遏制供应过剩。近年来，随着洛阳钼业在该国两座大型矿山的产量 增加，刚果钴产量大增，但价格也大幅下跌。 刚果战略矿产市场监管局周六在发送给媒体的声明中表示，配额将于10月16周六生效，大致根据一家公 司在截至2024年底的三年内的出口情况按比例计算。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 智通财经APP获悉，在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩 余时间的钴出口配额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友和盛屯也是矿端拿到了配额，其他国内冶炼厂均没有拿到配额； 2、现货原材料会极度紧张，未来洛钼只能拿配额来保供 ...

Group 1: Cobalt Export Quota in Congo - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota, effective from October 16, aimed at strengthening resource sovereignty and signaling a shift from a surplus to a shortage in the cobalt market, leading to a systematic increase in price levels [1] - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority stated that miners will be allowed to export slightly over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with annual export limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which is less than half of last year's production [1] - The quota distribution includes major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which received a quota of 31,200 tons (32.3%), exceeding some prior expectations [1] Group 2: Future Cobalt Supply and Demand - Institutions predict a cobalt supply gap in the next two years, with global supply expected to be 290,000 tons in 2024 (DRC 220,000 tons + Indonesia 28,000 tons) against a demand of 185,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of 105,000 tons; by 2026, supply is projected to drop to 180,000 tons (DRC 96,600 tons + Indonesia 40,000 tons) while demand will rise to 200,000 tons, leading to a shortfall of 20,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Stock Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 6.1%, with major U.S. stock indices also experiencing significant declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [3] - Notable declines were observed in large tech stocks, with companies like Broadcom and Tesla dropping nearly 6% and 5.06% respectively, reflecting broader market challenges [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Prices - Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an increase in rare earth concentrate prices for Q4 2025, with a projected 37.13% increase compared to Q3 [7] Group 5: Company Announcements - China Energy Construction signed three new energy EPC contracts worth approximately 27.45 billion USD (about 195.54 billion RMB) with Saudi companies [11] - Smoore International reported a record high quarterly revenue of approximately 4.1968 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 27.2% [12] - Kelun-Biotech's TROP2ADC drug received approval for a new indication, expanding its market potential in treating specific lung cancer cases [13] - Zhaojin Mining reported a net profit of approximately 2.117 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140.43% [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, driven primarily by rising copper prices, with a notable increase of 24% in stock price over a few trading days, reaching a historical high of 18 yuan per share [2][4][6]. Company Performance - Since April 9, 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has surged by 218%, increasing its market capitalization from 121 billion yuan to a peak of 384 billion yuan, and maintaining a market cap of 357.7 billion yuan as of October 10, 2023 [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2][11]. Market Dynamics - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum is closely linked to copper prices, which have risen from 9,154 USD/ton to 10,867 USD/ton since April 11, 2023, marking an increase of 18.7% [8]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the copper and cobalt markets, capitalizing on the growing demand driven by the global energy transition [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum has focused on acquiring high-quality mining resources, including significant stakes in world-class mines, which has established a long-term cost advantage [3][9]. - The company has adopted a "mining + trading" dual-driven model to maximize the value of its mining industry chain [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite strong performance, Luoyang Molybdenum faces challenges related to its dependence on cyclical industries and market volatility, particularly in the context of global supply chain uncertainties [2][4]. - The company is exploring new growth paths to reduce reliance on cyclical profits and ensure sustainable growth [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant drops in share prices of various companies [1] Company Summaries - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has seen a decrease of 10.44%, currently trading at 45.72 HKD [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) has dropped by 9.72%, with shares priced at 14.77 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) is down 7.18%, trading at 39.04 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) has fallen by 6.66%, currently at 16.4 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) has decreased by 4.36%, with shares at 36.42 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in stock price, with a 3.18% drop on October 10, 2023, and a total market capitalization of 357.13 billion yuan [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is engaged in the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals, including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus, and is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally [3][4]. - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is the largest tungsten producer, the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion yuan [9]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan in the last three years [10]. Production and Growth - The company has increased its focus on precious metals, with the revenue contribution from gold and silver products rising annually [4]. - In 2023, the gold production guidance from its NPM copper-gold mine in Australia is projected to be between 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [4]. Market Position - Luoyang Molybdenum ranks 34th in terms of market popularity in the A-share market [2]. - The company is classified under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in the industrial metals sector, with a focus on copper [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1][1][1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the US government shutdown [1][1][1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the rising dollar index and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][1][1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while there may be short-term price surges in basic metals due to supply disruptions and speculative trading, there is a risk of price corrections if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1][1][1] - Long-term expectations for domestic stimulus policies and ongoing supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a tightening supply-demand dynamic, which could further elevate basic metal prices [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the US [1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the strengthening dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while copper prices are currently leading gains among base metals, there is a need for caution regarding potential pullbacks if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1] - There are expectations of tighter supply and demand dynamics for copper, aluminum, and tin, which may lead to increased prices for base metals in the long term due to ongoing supply disruptions [1]