11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会。申万宏源认为，2026年将是改革与发展全面发 力的一年，2026年年中A股行情可能全面启动，科技产业趋势和我国制造业全球影响力提升将是市场主 线。（中证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for reform and development in China's economy and capital markets, with a potential full-scale rally in A-shares expected by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of China's manufacturing global influence [1][5]. Economic Growth Drivers - New factors and assets are emerging as new drivers of economic growth, moving away from traditional reliance on investment and exports. The focus is shifting towards knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent as key growth enablers [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, emphasizing the importance of effective markets and proactive government [2][3]. Reform and Investment Opportunities - The upcoming reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are expected to be systematic and effective, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic governance and promoting self-reliance in technology [3][4]. - Key areas for potential investment include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, reforms in social welfare, financial and tax systems, and acceleration of green transformation [4]. A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is projected to experience a significant rally starting in mid-2026, supported by improvements in the fundamental economic cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in household asset allocation towards equities [5][6]. - The market is expected to transition through different phases, with technology growth stocks likely to see short-term rebounds before a broader market rally led by cyclical sectors and the technology industry [6]. Investment Themes for 2026 - Three major investment themes are highlighted for 2026: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical sectors such as basic chemicals and industrial metals 2. Technology sectors including AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Manufacturing sectors that enhance China's global influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [6].

2025年2月，证监会发布的《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》提出，积极发挥资本市 场功能，着力做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"。申万宏源 （000166）党委书记、董事长刘健在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，近年来，证券行业切实履行直接 融资"服务商"、资本市场"看门人"、社会财富"管理者"的职责，积极响应党中央重大决策部署，通过业 务转型与综合金融服务升级，逐步构建起服务实体经济的立体化网络，成为做好金融"五篇大文章"的重 要力量。 ● 本报记者 徐昭 林倩 刘健表示，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。申万宏源 作为国有金融企业，积极响应政策号召，将服务国家战略与自身发展相结合，继续在推动金融"五篇大 文章"落地、助力实体经济高质量发展中主动担当、积极作为，助力金融强国建设。 夯实发展基石 为高质量发展注入内生动力 一直以来，申万宏源始终夯实"治理、人才、文化"三大发展基石，将社会责任融入公司核心价值框架， 为高质量发展注入内生动力。 据刘健介绍，多年来申万宏源在甘肃省、新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区、贵州省等地开展 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by the "three new" concepts: new factor systems, new institutional frameworks, and new service systems [1] - The chief economist predicts that 2025 will be a year of recovering confidence, while 2026 will see comprehensive reforms and development, leading to atypical economic recovery and improved profitability [1] - The concept of "seeking dividends from reform" encompasses three meanings: accelerated reform progress presenting significant opportunities, short-term policies to boost domestic demand continuing under a long-term reform framework, and the breadth, depth, and strength of the "dividends" being closely tied to reforms [1] Group 2 - The "two-phase theory of rising markets" suggests that the technology-driven market in 2025 will represent "Phase 1.0," potentially peaking in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market phase "Phase 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2] - The "Phase 1.0" is expected to reach its peak in spring 2026, with the AI industry still showing growth potential, although A-share AI stocks are currently in a long-term low-value area [2] - In "Phase 2.0," it is anticipated that midstream manufacturing supply will clear, with capacity growth rates falling below demand growth, leading to improved stock selection success rates [2] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates that the "Phase 1.0" is at a high level, with one more opportunity for technology growth before spring 2026, while the transition to "Phase 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks [3] - The "Phase 2.0" will see cyclical stocks leading index breakthroughs, with technology industry trends and the global influence of manufacturing becoming the main themes [3] - Three structural clues to watch include recovery trades (basic chemicals, industrial metals), technology industry trends (AI industry chain, humanoid robots), and the enhancement of manufacturing influence (chemicals, engineering machinery) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to return to effectiveness, potentially triggering a "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2][4] Group 1: Market Outlook - The anticipated bull market may start in the second half of 2026, with a focus on the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" [2][4] - The "policy bottom" is likely to be validated around mid-2026, which could catalyze the start of the new bull market [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current phase of the bull market is characterized by a significant shift in asset allocation towards equities, indicating that the bull market is far from over [3] - The A-share market is expected to see a qualitative change in profit accumulation, leading to improved conditions for incremental capital inflow over time [3] Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is projected to be a key driver in the upcoming bull market, with a focus on areas such as humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [5] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks initially, followed by cyclical stocks and growth sectors [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast - A-share net profit growth is expected to show significant improvement, with forecasts of 7% and 14% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Annual Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan focused on exploring investment opportunities and market trends across various sectors, including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, and artificial intelligence [1] - The conference featured a main forum and 12 sub-forums, bringing together government officials, experts, corporate executives, and investors to discuss economic dynamics and investment strategies for the upcoming year [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan's Chief Economist Zhao Wei highlighted that 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic governance and technological self-reliance [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to play a crucial role in seizing opportunities in the AI industry and empowering various sectors [2][3] - Key areas for investment opportunities in A-shares include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the increasing influence of manufacturing [3] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan aims to align its services with national strategies, focusing on building a comprehensive financial service system that integrates research, investment, and investment banking to support the transformation of the real economy [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its professional service capabilities to contribute to the healthy development of the capital market and the high-quality growth of China's financial system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that 2026 will be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with a potential full-scale launch of the A-share market by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and New Drivers - New factors and assets are becoming the new drivers of economic growth, with knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent leading the way [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive reform, with 2026 marking the acceleration of these reforms [2][3]. - The nominal GDP recovery in 2026 is anticipated to improve corporate profitability, with service demand showing greater elasticity [2]. Group 2: Reform and Opportunities - The focus for 2026 will be on leveraging reforms for dividends, emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, particularly in the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [3]. - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, and reforms in social security and financial systems [3]. Group 3: A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant rally by mid-2026, with a potential peak in the spring of 2026 [4]. - Factors supporting this rally include cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [4][5]. - Investment focus areas for 2026 include basic chemicals, industrial metals, AI industry chains, and sectors related to manufacturing influence [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive deepening of reforms, with 2026 marking the beginning of accelerated reforms since the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Continuous deepening of domestic demand expansion policies will lead to improvements in corporate profitability during the nominal GDP recovery process [1] - Service demand within consumption is more elastic, making investment growth likely to show a "front low, back high" trend [1] Group 2: Reform Opportunities - The acceleration of reform processes is creating significant opportunities, with short-term domestic demand policies expected to strengthen under a long-term reform framework [1] - The breadth, depth, and intensity of the "dividend" from the era are closely related to the ongoing reforms [1] Group 3: Focus Areas for 2026 - Key areas to focus on in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, development of new productive forces, reforms related to social welfare, financial and tax system reforms, and accelerating green transformation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a cyclical peak in spring 2026, with a comprehensive market rally potentially triggered by the sequential emergence of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" around mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - By mid-2026, the supply in midstream manufacturing may clear, leading to a noticeable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The upcoming market rally will be supported by improvements in the fundamental cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, shifts in resident asset allocation towards equities, and the enhancement of China's global influence [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Before spring 2026, technology growth stocks may experience minor rebounds; from spring to mid-year, high-dividend defensive stocks are expected to outperform [1] - After mid-2026, a "cyclical foundation with growth leading" approach is anticipated, with the "policy bottom" catalyzing cyclical sectors to lead index breakthroughs, while the trends in technology industries and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence will be the main market themes [1] Group 3: Key Investment Themes - Three major structural themes to focus on in 2026 include: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI supply chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to the enhancement of manufacturing influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2]

刘健指出，近年来，中央政治局会议多次强调要活跃资本市场，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能。随着我国直接融资规模持续扩容，直接融资占比已超过30%，我国股票市场市值规模突破100万亿 元，证券化率提升至近80%的水平，沪深交易所新增融资规模持续居于全球交易所前列。 "在大力发展直接融资导向下，未来资本市场有望进一步提质扩容。同时，资本市场基础制度的改革将 显著提升市场包容性、适应性。从上市公司市值结构看，近年来A股市场吸纳优质资产的能力明显提 升。"刘健进一步指出。（智通财经记者 田忠方） 11月18日，申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健表示，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，中国经济和资本市场 都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。其中，资本市场作为资源配置的重要市场，在金融体系中的地位和作用 将进一步提升。 刘健是在申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会上作出的上述表述。 ...