申万宏源 2025年第二期次级债券11月19日起在深交所上市，其中品种一代码"524526"，简称"25申证 C3"，发行总额18亿元，票面利率2%，期限3年；品种二代码"524527"，简称"25申证C4"，发行总额7亿 元，票面利率2.15%，期限5年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan has launched the "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform," marking a significant upgrade in its custody operation business and setting a new benchmark for digital and intelligent transformation in the fund custody industry [1] Group 1: Platform Launch - The "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform" is the first co-developed custody operation service platform in the industry [1] - The platform signifies a comprehensive upgrade of Shenwan Hongyuan's custody operation business system [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The platform is driven by the core idea of "capability accumulation - intelligent driving - experience reconstruction" [1] - It achieves full-chain autonomy and intelligent collaboration from underlying architecture to user interface [1] - The platform is fully compatible with domestic chips, operating systems, databases, and middleware, enhancing technical security [1] Group 3: Long-term Development - The platform supports the long-term safe and sustainable development of the business through system self-evolution and service experience enhancement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and data as new driving forces for economic growth, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards new sectors and opportunities [3][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes technological innovation, which will lead to breakthroughs in industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and hydrogen energy [6]. - The conference suggests that the future growth of the Chinese economy will rely on new factors of production rather than traditional drivers, opening new spaces for capital market investments [7]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The research team at Shenwan Hongyuan proposed a "two-stage bull market" outlook, predicting that the first stage, driven by technological structure, will peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. - The team anticipates significant improvements in A-share profitability in 2026, marking the first time in five years that both non-profitability and net profit growth will show double-digit increases [8]. Group 3: Macroeconomic and Bond Market Insights - Chief Economist Zhao Wei noted that the reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on systemic effectiveness, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development [9]. - The bond market is entering a new phase where the core variables will shift towards price and capital flow, with a particular focus on inflation throughout 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a significant trend of long-term capital, represented by insurance funds, increasingly allocating to the banking sector, with a potential inflow space of approximately 600 billion yuan if 40% of new funds are allocated to bank stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Allocation - The unprecedented low interest rate environment is driving incremental capital towards dividend sectors, with the banking sector offering superior value. The current banking index dividend yield is about 4.3%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, making it an attractive investment option [1]. - Assuming that 40% of the new capital is allocated to OCI and 40% to bank stocks, this could lead to a potential inflow of around 600 billion yuan. Additionally, public fund reforms are expected to increase capital allocation to underrepresented sectors, with bank stock holdings in public funds dropping to a near ten-year low of 1.74% in Q3 2025, suggesting an additional potential inflow of over 370 billion yuan if allocations align with the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Expected Changes in Banking Fundamentals - The central bank has explicitly stated its support for stabilizing net interest margins, linking this to the expansion of monetary policy's counter-cyclical adjustment space. It is anticipated that by 2026, bank interest margins may reverse their downward trend and show a slight year-on-year increase, with banks that can improve deposit costs expected to perform better than their peers [3]. - The importance of "high provisioning" is becoming more pronounced as banks' provisioning capacity is gradually consumed. While systemic risks from real estate and platforms may ease, risks in retail sectors still require provisioning. Focus should be on banks with low non-performing loans and high loan-to-deposit ratios, as well as those with clear asset quality improvements [3]. - Some small and medium-sized banks may face revenue growth challenges due to high base pressures in their capital market operations, with reduced non-interest income growth and declining financial investment yields [3]. Group 3: Capital Focus and Investment Recommendations - Bank capital is becoming a focal point, with banks that have strong internal capital generation or substantial reserves being better positioned for stable lending and dividends. External financing remains challenging, making convertible bonds a scarce resource [4]. - The banking sector is entering a new cycle of stable profitability, with long-term capital inflows ongoing. If the macro environment sees a gradual recovery in PPI and marginal increases in long-term interest rates, this will create favorable operating conditions for banks. Even under economic pressure, banks with clear risk thresholds and stable dividend expectations remain attractive dividend assets [5]. - The report recommends focusing on a dual strategy of "leading banks (state-owned and China Merchants Bank) as the foundation" and "bottom-tier joint-stock banks and quality city commercial banks as the performers." Leading banks are expected to see valuation recovery, while quality small and medium-sized banks with improving fundamentals are likely to exhibit stock price elasticity in response to economic recovery [5].

1)强法治：金融法有望统领金融领域基础性、综合性法律，新《保险法》有望优化资本要求，完善中小 机构风险处置机制;2)严监管：分级分类监管态势预计将延续;3)化风险：聚焦化解利差损、中小机构风 险两大议题;4)促发展：推动负债端长期可持续增长，推动险资入市;人保集团财险业务"走出去"战略定 位升级，中资保险公司出海有望迈入新阶段。 负债："反内卷"政策持续推进，分红险有望接棒增额终身寿险 财产险方面，非车险综合治理步入落地期，通过优化考核机制、规范费率条款与费用管理，高风险险种 COR有望显著改善;人身险方面，个险"报行合一"正式落地，有助于压降负债成本、助力费差改善。居 民真实无风险利率明显回落，预定利率持续下调，资本市场预期改善态势下，将分红险作为核心产品推 动成为市场多数机构共识;同时，分红险的分红水平持续得到监管约束，有助于有效管控负债成本的浮 动部分。银保渠道作为头部机构的重要战略发展方向，机构竞争从渠道、产品竞争升级为多重资源竞 争。 资产：战略定位持续升级，险资入市仍将为26年关键趋势 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，3Q25 A股险企利润大增68%，投资业绩贡献前三季度税前利 润增量的7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that by the end of 2024, second-hand ship prices and new ship prices will peak and then decline, with second-hand ship prices stabilizing and surpassing their previous highs by 2025. [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - By September 2025, the second-hand ship price index is expected to cross above the new ship price index, which historically has occurred four times since 2000, with three instances leading to supercycle markets. [1][3] - The shipping sector's improved sentiment is gradually transmitting to the upstream shipbuilding industry, as seen in past trends where shipbuilding stocks lagged behind the shipping market by about four months. [1][2] Group 2: Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker charter rates are rising, indicating an increase in oil shipping market sentiment, which is expected to accelerate the transmission of this sentiment to the shipbuilding sector. [4] - The oil shipping market is anticipated to face a wave of old ships being retired, which could stimulate a recovery in the shipbuilding market, presenting opportunities for shipbuilding companies. [4] Group 3: Price Movements - The new ship price index saw a weekly increase of 0.03% to 184.86 points, primarily driven by a 0.15% rise in new oil tanker prices, reflecting the upward transmission of oil shipping market sentiment to shipbuilding. [5] - The second-hand ship price is expected to stabilize and exceed the previous high before the 2024 decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. [3] Group 4: Valuation - Shipbuilding companies such as China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China Ship Defense (00317) are currently undervalued, with their order book amounts at approximately 56 billion and 7 billion USD, respectively, and market capitalization to order ratio at historical lows. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform" by Shenwan Hongyuan marks a significant upgrade in the company's custody operation business, emphasizing technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development in the industry [1]. Group 1: Platform Features - The platform is built on six breakthrough highlights, creating an efficient, intelligent, and open custody operation service system [2]. - It reconstructs user experience by simplifying operational processes and enabling intelligent queries and real-time report generation, significantly enhancing business efficiency [2]. - The platform architecture has been upgraded from a monolithic structure to a microservices architecture, addressing industry pain points such as high module coupling and poor data synchronization [2]. - A unified data middle platform has been established to integrate data resources across all business modules, resolving the issue of data silos [2]. - The platform ensures a secure and controllable technical foundation that aligns with the requirements of the domestic innovation ecosystem while enhancing system performance [2]. - An open API interface platform has been created to facilitate rapid integration of internal and external systems, promoting ecological cooperation and business innovation [2]. - AI technologies, including machine learning and natural language processing, have been deeply integrated into the entire process of risk control, operations, and decision-making, reducing labor costs and operational risks [2]. Group 2: Core Business Upgrades - The platform has completed comprehensive upgrades in five core business scenarios: TA clearing, valuation accounting, investment supervision, fund transfer, and performance analysis [3]. - The share registration system achieves "automated clearing for single products," constructing a fully automated operation system centered on "single products" [3]. - The valuation accounting system utilizes high-frequency data collection and intelligent tools to digitize the entire process from valuation to reporting, improving efficiency and accuracy [3]. - The investment supervision system can complete compliance calculations for over ten thousand products within 30 minutes, significantly enhancing precision and efficiency [3]. - The fund transfer system has added features such as combination transfers and trajectory visualization, allowing for fund disbursement in as little as one minute, making operations more flexible and transparent [3]. - The performance analysis service has expanded its analysis models and indicator systems, introducing multi-dimensional indicators to support in-depth analysis [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 新浪财经讯，11月18日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办，申万宏源研究债券首席分析 师黄伟平发表申万宏源2026年债券策略投资展望，他认为， 2025年经济主要支撑在于：1）外需拉动；2）生产驱动，尤其制造业；3）财政扩张社会信用。 过去几年债市核心矛盾的切换：从信用收缩到资产配置再平衡。 2025年债市逻辑主线在预期差：Q1资金预期差、Q2中美关系预期差，Q3资产配置预期差（ 存款搬家 +股市风险偏好回升）、 Q4央行买债预期差。2025年信用周期的框架难以解析债市表现，进入低利率 环境资产配置的性价比开始深刻影响债市。 当前债市核心矛盾进入新阶段："物价+资金流向"开始受市场关注。经济转型进入新阶段，地产对经济 影响可能回到2015年附近，对经济影响不强。 • 化债解决了经济结构转型中的"历史遗留问题"，按照"6+4+2"的化债方案2026年化债进程 到"46%-70%"，资产荒压力进一步缓解。 • 居民存量财富再分配的逻辑开始受到市场重视。 • 利率进入低位后，波动性往往会增加。 百年未有之大变局遇上十五五规划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presented by Shenyin Wanguo's chief analyst suggests a two-phase bull market, with 2025 representing the "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and a potential transition to a broader bull market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 is characterized by a technology-driven structure, with expectations of a peak in the spring of 2026 [1] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0" [1] Group 2: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry trend is expected to continue evolving, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chain companies are currently in a long-term low cost-performance zone [1] - This situation is reminiscent of previous market phases, such as the early 2014 ChiNext, early 2018 food and beverage sector, and early 2021 new energy sector [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, markets often undergo a phase of skepticism before continuing with industry trend-driven rallies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by new factors and institutional reforms [1][2][3] Group 2 - The new factor system is expected to activate new engines for economic growth, with technology, data, and talent becoming key drivers, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and hydrogen energy [1][2] - The data factor will play a crucial role in transforming consumption patterns and enhancing efficiency in traditional industries through digitalization and intelligent transformation [2][3] Group 3 - A new institutional framework is being established to reshape the capital market, focusing on enhancing direct financing and improving market inclusivity and adaptability [2][3] - Reforms in the capital market, including the deepening of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the establishment of a comprehensive institutional system, aim to improve the identification and pricing mechanisms for technology innovation enterprises [3] Group 4 - A new service system is being developed to provide comprehensive capital services, including risk investment, mergers and acquisitions, and ESG consulting, tailored to meet diverse investor needs [4] - The company is enhancing its investment services by offering a wide range of products to cater to different risk preferences and improving the overall investor experience [4]