Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao International Holding, with a target price of RMB 15.6 per share, corresponding to HKD 17.0 per share [4][9]. Core Insights - Haidilao reported a revenue of RMB 21.49 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.7% to RMB 2.04 billion, primarily due to changes in net exchange gains and losses and the cancellation of VAT deduction policy in Mainland China. The core operating profit increased by 13.0% to RMB 2.80 billion [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute RMB 1.94 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio of 95% and a dividend yield of approximately 3.1% [2][9]. - The revenue breakdown shows that restaurant revenue was RMB 20.41 billion, with significant growth in Tier-3 and below cities, while takeaway revenue grew by 23.3% to RMB 0.58 billion [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For 1H24, the total revenue was RMB 21.49 billion, with restaurant revenue contributing RMB 20.41 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. Revenue from Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 cities, and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan were RMB 3.59 billion, RMB 8.00 billion, RMB 8.16 billion, and RMB 0.70 billion, respectively [2][9]. - The average customer transaction value decreased by 5.3% to RMB 97.4, while the average seat turnover rate increased by 27.3% to 4.2 times per day [2][9]. Cost Structure and Management - Raw materials and consumables costs increased by 9.1% to RMB 8.39 billion, accounting for 39.0% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 24.0% to RMB 7.16 billion, making up 33.3% of revenue [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in depreciation and amortization costs by 11.1% to RMB 1.33 billion, which accounted for 6.2% of revenue [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in store openings, introducing a franchise model and implementing the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands [2][4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are expected to be RMB 45.433 billion, RMB 49.094 billion, and RMB 53.178 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 8.1%, and 8.3%, respectively [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price adjusted to HK$15.94, down from HK$21.52 [2][12]. Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 half-year performance was generally in line with expectations, showing a same-store sales growth rate of approximately 15%, despite a 10% decline in net profit due to higher-than-expected employee costs [6][17]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the second half of 2024, including macroeconomic pressures and high baseline comparisons, but potential growth could come from accelerated new store openings and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong performance in customer service and marketing, which has contributed to its superior same-store sales recovery compared to industry averages [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at HK$47,309 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1%. Net profit is expected to be HK$4,627.2 million, reflecting a slight increase of 2.4% [3][9]. - The report anticipates a gross profit margin improvement to 60.1% by FY24E, driven by lower raw material costs and enhanced supply chain efficiency [16][17]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with a focus on new brand development and operational efficiency [1][16]. Key Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 14.6x for FY24E and a dividend yield of 6.1% [2][3]. - The same-store sales growth rate for the first half of 2024 was supported by a 27% increase in table turnover, despite a 5% decline in average spending per table [6][17]. - The report notes that Haidilao's stock is currently trading at a P/E of 15x for FY24, which is considered reasonable given the attractive dividend yield [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$ 15.94, down from the previous target price of HK$ 21.52, reflecting a 20% upside from the current price of HK$ 13.28 [2][3][8]. Core Views - Haidilao's 1H24 results were roughly in line with expectations, showing a 14% year-on-year increase in sales, but net profit dropped by 10% year-on-year due to higher staff costs [6][2]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2H24, including macroeconomic pressures and high staff costs, but potential upside could come from new store openings and initiatives from the new CEO to improve margins [2][6]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSG), outperforming the catering industry, driven by superior customer service and effective marketing strategies [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,309 million in FY24E, representing a 14.1% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,627.2 million in FY24E, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 60.1% in FY24E, up from 59.2% in FY23A, aided by lower input costs and improved supply chain efficiency [7][11]. Earnings Revision - The report revises net profit forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E down by 7%, 1%, and up by 4% respectively, primarily due to higher staff costs but better gross profit margins [7][2]. - The diluted EPS for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 0.827, down from RMB 0.893, reflecting a 7.4% decrease [7][2]. Store Expansion and Initiatives - Haidilao aims to increase its number of stores by a mid-single-digit percentage in FY24E, with plans to open 400 to 500 stores under the new Yanqing Barbecue Shop brand over the next three years [2][10]. - The "Red pomegranate" project is highlighted as a key multi-brand development strategy, which is crucial for the company's future growth [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15x for FY24E, which is considered not too demanding, especially with a dividend yield of 6% [2][3]. - The report notes that Haidilao's P/B ratio is projected to be 3.3x for FY24E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.2% [3][8].

2024 年 9 月 2 日 海底捞（6862.HK） 核心净利润逆势增长 海底捞 2024 年上半年收入 215 亿/+13.8%，净利润 20.3 亿/-10%，核心净利润 28 亿 /+13%，实现逆势增长。截止 6 月底，门店数量 1343 家，上半年净减少 31 家。考虑 当下的环境，我们略微下调 24/25/26 年净利润至 46.3/51.2/54.2 亿元，对应每 EPS 收益为 0.91/1.01/1.07 港元。维持"买入"评级，下调目标价至 20.8 港元，较当 前股价有 58%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 上半年门店略有收缩，经营策略谨慎。截止 6 月份门店总是 1343 家，上半年新开 11 家，关闭 42 家，净减少 31 家，主要是公司关闭了部分经营效果不达预期的门店， 一线和三线的关店率稍高一些。上半年新增一家加盟店，未来公司也将持续探索加 盟业态，采用托管模式以保证海底捞品质的统一输出。 客流显著上升，表现远好于同行。24 年上半年门店整体翻台率为 4.2 次/天，较去 年同期提升 27%，经营成果令人惊叹。目前翻台率已经回到 19 年最巅峰时期的 87%， 而门店数量较当时增加了 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haidilao (6862) [2] Core Views - Despite weak demand and consumption downgrade trends, Haidilao's stable operations and superior dividend payout ratio justify a higher valuation multiple of 18x PE compared to the industry average of 13x PE [4] - The target price is revised downward to RMB 14.53 (-22%), equivalent to HKD 15.89, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [4] - Haidilao's H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 21.491 billion, a 14% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 9.7% to RMB 2.038 billion [4] - Excluding tax credits and exchange gains/losses (approximately RMB 400 million), core business profit is estimated to have grown 13% YoY, aligning with the company's disclosed Non-GAAP core operating profit growth [4] Operational Performance - Turnover rates continue to recover across all store tiers: Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall at 4/4.3/4.1/4.2/4.2, showing YoY increases of 18%/23%/28%/2%/24% respectively [4] - Same-store sales growth varies significantly by region: +11%/-48%/+20%/+2%/+15% for Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] - Average customer spending shows a downward trend across all regions, with overall spending down 5.3% YoY [4] - Store network strategy shifts towards Tier 2 and 3 cities, with net store openings of -12/+9/+13/+10/+1/+11 in Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Restaurant operations (+13.8%), other restaurants (+74.3%), delivery (+23.3%), and condiment/ingredient sales (-19.2%) [4] - Cost structure: Raw materials (39%), staff costs (33.3%), property rental (1%), depreciation (6.2%), and utilities (3.4%) [4] - Staff costs increased due to higher headcount per store (from 99 to 106 employees) and increased promotional activities [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts revised to RMB 4.5/5.0/5.4 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.81/0.90/0.98 [4] - Revenue projections: 2024E RMB 44.960 billion (+8.46%), 2025E RMB 49.071 billion (+9.15%), 2026E RMB 51.580 billion (+5.11%) [5] - PE ratios: 2024E 14.81x, 2025E 13.38x, 2026E 12.28x [5] Market Data - Current share price: HKD 13.12 [3] - 52-week price range: HKD 11.80-22.10 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 73.131 billion [6]

海底捞（06862.HK） 优于大市 核心经营利润率维持稳定， "红石榴"计划加码新品牌孵化 2024H1 核心经营利润 27.99 亿元，同增 13.0%。2024H1，公司实现营收 214.91 亿元/+13.8%；归母净利润 22.58 亿元/-9.7%，主要系汇兑损益变动和增值 税优惠政策取消（2024H1 净汇兑亏损 0.26 亿元，2023H1 收益 1.93 亿元； 2024H1 取消，2023H1 税项加计扣除 1.59 亿元而 2024 年取消）。若剔除相 关事项影响，实现核心经营利润 27.99 亿元/+13.0%，符合我们预期。 翻台改善明显、客单适应消费环境走低，下半年开店有望提速。2024H1， 公司整体翻台率 4.2 次，同比+0.9 次，其中一、二、三线及以下、港澳台 城市翻台率分别为 4.0/4.3/4.1/4.2 次，分别同比+0.6/0.8/0.9/0.1 次， 低线城市翻台恢复更为强劲。公司客单价下滑 97.4 元/-5%，系适应消费环 境推出更高性价比产品。截至期末，公司共 1343 家门店/-39 家，系调整存 量门店，新开 11 家仍较谨慎。考虑到新开门店成功率较高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862 HK) [4][6] Core Views - Haidilao's 2024 H1 revenue reached RMB 21 491 billion, up 13 8% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 9 7% YoY to RMB 2 038 billion [4] - The company's overall and same-store turnover rates improved to 4 2 times/day, up 0 9 and 0 8 times/day YoY respectively [4] - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" aims to open 400-500 new stores for its "Yanqing BBQ" brand within 3 years, representing a strategic shift in brand expansion [5] - The multi-store management model has been implemented, with over 100 store managers overseeing more than 200 stores as of July [5] Financial Performance - Haidilao's 2024 H1 gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, while employee costs increased as a percentage of revenue [5] - The company's net profit margin declined 2 5 percentage points YoY to 9 5%, impacted by unfavorable exchange rate movements and the expiration of tax incentives [5] - Revenue breakdown for 2024 H1: Haidilao restaurants (RMB 204 14 billion, +14% YoY), other restaurants (RMB 1 82 billion, +74% YoY), delivery (RMB 5 81 billion, +23% YoY), and condiments/ingredients (RMB 2 99 billion, -19% YoY) [4] Market Data - Haidilao's current market capitalization stands at HKD 68 783 billion, with a total of 5 574 billion shares outstanding [2] - The stock's 1-year performance shows a 37 10% relative decline and a 39 52% absolute decline [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to RMB 46 020 billion, RMB 50 494 billion, and RMB 54 284 billion respectively [7] - Net profit projections for 2024-2026 are revised to RMB 4 469 billion, RMB 5 106 billion, and RMB 5 565 billion [7] - The current PE ratio stands at 14x for 2024, with projected EPS of RMB 0 80, RMB 0 92, and RMB 1 00 for 2024-2026 [6] Operational Highlights - Haidilao operated 1,343 stores as of 2024 H1, with 1,320 in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4] - Same-store sales growth varied by region: tier 1 cities (+11%), tier 2 cities (+14%), tier 3 and below cities (+20%), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (+2%) [4] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 5 5 to RMB 97 4, with regional variations: tier 1 cities (-RMB 6 2), tier 2 cities (-RMB 5 0), tier 3 and below cities (-RMB 4 7), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (-RMB 7 8) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Haidilao (06862 HK) with a target price of HKD 17 32, compared to the current price of HKD 12 34 [1] Core Views - Haidilao demonstrated strong performance resilience in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 21 49 billion (yoy +13 8%) and core operating profit at RMB 2 799 billion (yoy +13%) [1] - The company maintained a high dividend payout, with an EPS of RMB 0 38 and a dividend per share of RMB 0 358 [1] - Haidilao continued to streamline its store network, opening 11 new stores and closing 43 stores, resulting in a total of 1,343 stores by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The company's same-store turnover rate improved significantly, with an overall rate of 4 2 times (up from 3 3 times in the same period last year) [2] - Despite a decline in average customer spending (RMB 97 4, yoy -5 3%), cost optimization efforts led to a reduction in food costs as a percentage of revenue (-1 7pct to 39%) [2] Financial Performance - Haidilao's operating income for 2024E is projected to be RMB 49 798 billion, with a yoy growth of 19 6% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 4 461 billion in 2024E, with a slight yoy decline of 0 9% [3] - The company's EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 0 80, with a P/E ratio of 14x [3] - Haidilao's gross margin for 2024E is estimated at 11 5%, while the net margin is projected at 9 0% [7] Operational Highlights - Haidilao's management focused on optimizing customer satisfaction and implemented a multi-store management model, allowing store managers to oversee multiple locations [2] - The company launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to develop new restaurant brands, resulting in the creation of 5 new brands in H1 2024, covering categories such as BBQ, hotpot, and Chinese fast food [2] - Same-store turnover rates improved across all city tiers, with tier-1 cities increasing by 0 6 times, tier-2 cities by 0 8 times, and tier-3 and below cities by 0 9 times [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Haidilao's EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0 80, RMB 0 92, and RMB 1 01, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x [2] - The target price of HKD 17 32 is based on a 2024E P/E multiple of 20x [2]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 25 20 15 10 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | 02/2024 05/2024 | | | 、浦银国际 | | | 扫码关注浦银国际研究 | | 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 | | 林闻嘉 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2024 年 8 月 28 日 海底捞（6862.HK）：品牌力与翻台率保持 强劲，但五大担忧令我们维持谨慎态度 在餐饮行业面临较大挑战的情况下，海底捞 1H24 翻台率同比大幅提升 至 4.2x，毛利率同比扩张 1.7 ...

港股通 1H24 翻台显著提升，多举措降本提效 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | 华泰研究 中报点评 | | | 2024 年 8 月 28 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 研究员 樊俊豪 SAC No. S0570524050001 fanjunhao@htsc.com SFC No. BDO986 +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 曾珺 SAC No. S0570523120004 zengjun@htsc.com SFC No. BTM417 +(86) 21 2897 2228 研究员 梅昕 SAC No. S0570516080001 meixin@htsc.com SFC No. BQE385 +(86) 21 2897 2080 1H24 营收增速符合预期，宣派中期股息增厚股东回报 海底捞 1H24 海底捞收入 214.91 亿/yoy+13.8%，收入端符合我们前瞻预期 （208-217 亿）；录得归母净利 20.38 亿，归母净利润 9.5%/同比-2.5pct， 主因受汇兑损益变动及 VAT 减免优惠政策取消 ...