海底捞 20260119 摘要 2025 年海底捞餐厅收入略有下降，但集团整体收入因红石榴系列餐厅 和外卖业务的增长而小幅上升，全年平均销售价格（ASP）较 2024 年 略有上升。 2025 年下半年利润同比面临压力，主要由于原材料成本上升和翻台率 压力，导致利润率和绝对额均受到影响。 2026 年展望以稳定保守为主，门店数量小幅增加，并根据实际情况进 行闭店调整，翻台率以 25 年水平为基础稳定提升，继续推进红石榴计 划和智慧中台建设。 管理团队调整旨在推进红石榴计划和智慧中台建设，创始人张勇回归 CEO 岗位，不会改变公司长期战略或现有政策，对基础经营业务无短期 影响。 2025 年海底捞外卖业务收入和利润均实现 100%的提升，未来计划将 外卖作为卫星店独立运营，并增加 SKU，提高外卖业务利润率。 宴请烤肉品牌开店速度放缓，因市场竞争激烈、口味和产品缺乏独特性、 顾客对服务不满意等原因，不排除 2026 年开始关停表现不佳的门店。 海底捞通过加盟方式拓展新区域，特别是在下沉市场，加盟门店表现良 好，2026 年将继续探索与加盟商合作的模式，直营门店转为加盟或新 增加盟门店会对整体收入产生一定负面影响 ...

晚上10时30分的武汉武昌滨江天街6楼，新开业的海底捞大排档火锅店里人声鼎沸：顾客们推着小车穿 梭在菜品档口，挑选鲜切牛肉与海鲜；一家四口正为孩子庆祝生日，热气氤氲中满是欢声笑语；从黄冈 驱车百里前来的食客，也甘愿为这一口"酸爽"排队到深夜。 大排档火锅这一新业态，通过市集般的沉浸体验、扎实的食材质价比和满满的情绪价值，用一锅酸爽点 燃了深夜的胃，也撬动了广阔的情绪消费市场。业内专家表示，随着夜经济持续升温与消费需求不断升 级，武汉这场始于深夜火锅局的消费新浪潮，正为餐饮行业复苏注入鲜活动能。 新业态成市民夜消费新主力 位于武昌滨江天街6楼的这家海底捞大排档火锅店，是湖北首店，开业即吸引了众多市民前往消费。 ◎记者 丁鹏 "我们人均消费100多元，整体感觉食材确实不错。"晏升表示，平常的火锅店吃一份牛肉可能需要三四 十元，但这里的各种牛羊肉平均一盘只要十几元，虽然是小份，但可以尝到更多品类，顾客的体验感更 丰富。 虽然在高峰期需要排队，但很多人还是成了回头客。1月14日上午10时，家住武昌滨江天街附近的冯先 生已和妻子早早来到店外排队取号，他计划中午宴请哥哥和姐姐两家人。他表示，这家店刚开业的时 候，儿子儿媳 ...

Core Insights - The acceleration of consumer market iteration and increasing homogenization among brands necessitate a clear cognitive identity for market positioning [1] - Professional planning is essential for overcoming communication challenges and accumulating core assets for brands [1] Group 1: Brand Communication - The essence of brand communication is to enable consumers to quickly perceive value and establish memory associations [3] - The core strategy of the company, "recognizable at a glance, easy to say, irresistible to play," simplifies communication and addresses consumer needs, contributing to the success of major national brands like Haidilao and Mixue Bingcheng [3] - The "Brand Triangle" theory proposed during the eight-year collaboration with Haidilao includes product structure, discourse system, and symbol system, providing a core framework for global brand positioning [3] Group 2: Symbol and Role Creation - The company created a brand character "Xiao Laolao" based on the panda, integrating elements of Sichuan culture to enhance emotional connections with consumers [4] - The character serves as a cultural ambassador, promoting traditional skills like noodle performances and Sichuan opera globally through various engagement scenarios [4] - The discourse system emphasizes cultural confidence, promoting "hot pot" as "Huoguo" internationally and creating memorable phrases and songs to enhance brand recognition [4] Group 3: Practical Planning Approach - The company's planning practices focus on simplification rather than complex theories or packaging, basing strategies on consumer cognitive patterns [6] - Effective combinations of symbols, roles, and discourse facilitate efficient brand value transmission [6] - The approach indicates that accumulating brand assets does not require elaborate crafting but rather accurately meeting needs and simplifying communication processes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao is seen as a strategic move to address the company's challenges and revitalize its operations in a competitive market [2][3][10]. Management Changes - On January 13, 2024, Haidilao announced the resignation of several executives, including CEO Gou Yiqun, with Zhang Yong being appointed as CEO effective immediately [2]. - Zhang Yong's return marks a significant shift in leadership, as he was previously considered to have stepped back from day-to-day operations [3][9]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Zhang Yong's return, Haidilao's stock surged over 9%, reaching HKD 15.74 per share, the highest since May of the previous year, with a market capitalization of HKD 87.7 billion [3]. Historical Context - Zhang Yong had previously stepped down as CEO during a challenging period for Haidilao, which included a profit warning and significant losses in 2021 [5][8]. - The company had expanded rapidly in 2020, opening 544 new stores, which contributed to its financial difficulties [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan," aimed at incubating new restaurant brands, was initially led by Gou Yiqun and is expected to be a key focus for Zhang Yong [10][11]. - As of mid-2025, the "Pomegranate Plan" had successfully incubated 14 new brands, generating revenue of CNY 597 million, which accounted for 2.9% of total revenue [10]. New Business Developments - The launch of "Haidilao Dapaidang Hotpot" represents a shift in strategy, leveraging the Haidilao brand to reduce consumer decision-making difficulty and accelerate expansion [12]. - The new concept has already seen rapid growth, with nearly 10 locations opened or in preparation within a month of its debut [12]. Leadership Transition - The appointment of younger executives to the board indicates a shift towards a more dynamic management approach, focusing on various operational aspects [13]. - The challenges of balancing personalized consumer demands with scalable growth remain a critical focus for Haidilao as it seeks to establish a second growth curve [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao signals a strategic shift as the company faces challenges in its core hotpot business and seeks to diversify its operations [1][9]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong resumes the roles of Chairman and CEO effective January 13, 2026, marking the third CEO change in four years for Haidilao [1]. - The previous CEO, Gou Yiqun, transitions to a key role in the company's digital transformation [1]. - Four experienced managers are appointed as executive directors, indicating a focus on strengthening leadership [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao's revenue decreased by 3.7% to 207.03 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 13.7% to 17.55 billion yuan [9]. - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" has generated new brand revenue of 5.97 billion yuan, a significant increase of 227.0%, now accounting for 2.9% of total revenue [9]. - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 44.95 billion yuan, with a table turnover rate of 3.8 times per day [7]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao is diversifying its brand portfolio, launching new concepts such as Hi Lao Hotpot and other dining formats, including fast food and barbecue [6]. - The company has implemented various innovative services and new business models, such as night snacks and beauty services, to attract customers [6]. - Zhang Yong's return is accompanied by a renewed focus on addressing operational challenges and enhancing customer engagement through new offerings [10]. Group 4: Market Environment - The competitive landscape for hotpot restaurants is intensifying, with brands like Banou and Song Hotpot attracting customers through differentiated positioning [9]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards value and experiential dining, which poses challenges for Haidilao's traditional service model [9]. - The company is adapting by optimizing its main business operations and exploring new market opportunities [10].

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba Health (00241), and Alibaba Group-W (09988) ranked the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 2.012 billion, 1.440 billion, and 1.128 billion respectively [1][2] - China Mobile (00941), Haidilao (06862), and China Aluminum (02600) ranked the top three in net outflow of southbound funds, with net outflows of -756 million, -460 million, and -434 million respectively [1][2] - Shenzhen Expressway (00548), Jiangsu Nanjing-Hangzhou Expressway (00177), and Anhui Wanan Expressway (00995) had the highest net inflow ratios at 73.29%, 68.10%, and 64.90% respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The top ten stocks by net inflow included Tencent Holdings (20.12 billion), Alibaba Health (14.40 billion), and Alibaba Group-W (11.28 billion), with respective closing prices of 633.000 (+0.88%), 7.780 (+18.96%), and 169.000 (+5.69%) [2] - The top ten stocks by net outflow included China Mobile (-7.56 billion), Haidilao (-4.60 billion), and China Aluminum (-4.34 billion), with respective closing prices of 80.800 (-0.19%), 15.740 (+9.15%), and 13.440 (-1.18%) [2] - The top three stocks by net outflow ratio were Industrial Bank of China Southern (03167) at -100.00%, Yancoal Australia (03668) at -62.10%, and Zhengzhou Bank (06196) at -60.19% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao marks a significant shift in the company's strategy amidst a challenging industry landscape, reflecting the broader transformation of the hot pot sector from aggressive expansion to rational adjustment [1][2][12]. Company Summary - Zhang Yong's return comes after a 1414-day absence, during which Haidilao experienced two CEO changes and strategic shifts, leading to a market capitalization recovery to 877.35 billion HKD following the announcement [1][2]. - The company faced severe challenges during Zhang's absence, including a net loss of 3.8 billion CNY in 2022 and a drop in market capitalization from 1 trillion HKD to 300 billion HKD [3][4]. - Under the leadership of Yang Lijuan, Haidilao implemented the "Woodpecker Plan," closing over 300 underperforming stores and focusing on improving single-store profitability, resulting in a net profit of 4.495 billion CNY in 2023, a 227% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The new CEO, Gou Yiqun, focused on digital transformation and multi-brand strategies, but faced challenges in sustaining growth, with a 3.7% decline in revenue in the first half of 2025 [5][6][12]. Industry Summary - The hot pot industry has undergone a structural transformation, shifting from a growth phase to a competitive phase characterized by market consolidation and increased competition [7][8]. - Haidilao's market share decreased from 8.7% to 6.3% over four years, while competitors like Banlu and Xiaobai gained market share through innovative strategies [7][9]. - Consumer preferences have shifted towards health-conscious and experiential dining, with the average spending on hot pot declining from 86.7 CNY in 2022 to 77.1 CNY in 2025 [9][10]. - The supply chain has become a critical competitive advantage, with leading brands investing in digital integration and fresh supply chain management to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [11][12]. Strategic Challenges - Haidilao faces three main challenges: growth stagnation, intensified competition, and organizational complexity, which the previous management struggled to address [12][13]. - The company needs to enhance operational efficiency and innovate service offerings to attract the Z generation, while also adjusting pricing strategies to remain competitive in lower-tier markets [14][15]. - Zhang Yong's return is seen as a strategic move to leverage his experience and vision to navigate these challenges and redefine the company's competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market [12][15][16].

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of CEO and Executive Director Mr. Gou Yiqun, with founder and Chairman Mr. Zhang Yong taking over as CEO again after four years [1] - The company has initiated the "Woodpecker Plan" to systematically adjust its store network and organizational structure amid operational pressures from rapid expansion [1][2] - The new executive directors appointed have diverse backgrounds in regional operations, product and supply chain management, and strategic support, enhancing the board's diversity [2] Group 2 - The hot pot industry is facing challenges, with the number of hot pot restaurants in China decreasing to 462,000 as of August 2025, down from 529,000 at the end of 2024, and average consumer spending dropping to 76.7 yuan, a decline of 11.3% from Q1 2023 [2] - The company has launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan," which has introduced 14 restaurant sub-brands, generating an additional revenue of 597 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227% [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 43.8 billion yuan, 46.4 billion yuan, and 50.8 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.23 billion yuan, 4.74 billion yuan, and 5.39 billion yuan [3]

Group 1: Coca-Cola and Costa Coffee - Coca-Cola has reportedly abandoned the plan to sell Costa Coffee due to bidders' offers falling short of expectations, marking a "latest setback" for the company [1] - The expected price for Costa Coffee was around £2 billion (approximately ¥18.7 billion), which is about half of the £3.9 billion paid during its acquisition in 2018 [1] - Future plans for a potential sale of Costa Coffee may be revisited in the medium term [1] Group 2: Costa Coffee Financial Performance - Costa Coffee's revenue for 2024 is reported at £1.2 billion (approximately ¥11.2 billion), but the operating loss has more than doubled to £13.5 million (approximately ¥12.5 million) [2] - The company attributes the loss to weak foot traffic in commercial streets and pressure from low-cost competitors [2] Group 3: Haidilao Management Changes - Haidilao announced significant executive and board changes, with founder Zhang Yong returning as CEO effective January 13, 2026 [3] - The company aims to enhance management efficiency and decision-making through the promotion of intelligent and automated management processes [3] - New executive directors have been appointed to support innovation and long-term development [3] Group 4: Haidilao's Business Expansion - Since the launch of the "Pomegranate Plan" in 2024, Haidilao has introduced several new dining sub-brands, expanding its offerings beyond hot pot [4] - The company operates 14 restaurant brands with a total of 126 stores, in addition to its core hot pot business [4] Group 5: Hushang Auntie Profit Forecast - Hushang Auntie has issued a positive profit forecast for 2025, expecting net profits to reach between ¥495 million and ¥525 million, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60% [5] - The growth is attributed to a multi-brand development strategy and ongoing operational efficiency improvements [5] Group 6: Salia's Profit Growth - Salia reported a net profit of ¥1.3 billion for the September to November 2025 period, a 16% year-on-year increase, achieving a two-year high [6] - The company’s sales increased by 15% to ¥31.7 billion during the same period, despite rising raw material costs [6] Group 7: Alo Yoga's Expansion in China - Alo Yoga is set to open its first store in China in Shanghai's Jing'an Kerry Center in the second quarter, with a second store planned for Beijing [7] - The brand emphasizes high-quality yoga and sportswear, with a pricing strategy positioned in the premium segment [7] Group 8: Global Yoga Apparel Market Growth - The global yoga apparel market is projected to reach $28.84 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.31% [8] - Alo Yoga has appointed former Dior executive Benedetta Petruzzo as CEO to accelerate global expansion [8][9] Group 9: Dongpeng Beverage Profit Forecast - Dongpeng Beverage expects a net profit of between ¥4.34 billion and ¥4.59 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.46% to 37.97% [17] - The company continues to focus on channel management and product exposure to drive sales growth [17] Group 10: Moutai's Corporate Sales Strategy - Moutai has opened sales of its 1499 yuan per bottle Flying Moutai to qualifying corporate clients, focusing on existing customers for 2026 contracts [18] Group 11: San Yuan's Revenue Projection - San Yuan expects to achieve approximately ¥6.35 billion in revenue for the previous year, with a significant increase in net profit projected for 2025 [19] - The company maintains a leading market share in liquid milk in Beijing, with over 50% in low-temperature fresh milk [19] Group 12: Mammut Potential Acquisition - Swiss outdoor brand Mammut is considering a sale, with an estimated transaction value of up to €500 million, and Anta Group is seen as a potential buyer [20]