MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 金吾财讯 | 港股开盘向好，恒指高开0.73%，国企指数高开0.63%，恒生科技指数高开0.56%。 金吾财讯 | 港股开盘向好，恒指高开0.73%，国企指数高开0.63%，恒生科技指数高开0.56%。 汇丰控股(00005)涨2.23%，紫金矿业(02899)涨2.21%，中国平安(02318)涨1.65%，京东集团(09618)涨 1.5%。跌幅方面，新东方(09901)跌3.56%，海底捞(06862)跌0.75%，携程集团(09961)跌0.72%。 云知声(09678)高开10.56%，公司预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度内实现大模型相关业务收入合计约 为6.0亿元至6.2亿元人民币，相较截至2024年12月31日止年度录得的大模型相关业务收入5,187万元人民 币，同比增长约1,057%至1,095%。 中国黄金国际(02099)高开3.76%，公司发布其2026年年度产量指引。甲玛矿：预计铜产量约1.4亿磅至 1.49亿磅（约6.35万吨至6.75万吨），金产量约70,732盎司至75,554盎司（约2.2吨至2.35吨），银产量约 418万盎司至4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The restaurant industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a shift towards efficiency in operations and a focus on customized meal supply [6][32] - The report identifies three potential development paths for the restaurant industry: high-quality and affordable offerings, automation and smart technology, and a focus on niche markets to meet diverse consumer needs [32][33] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective on Restaurant Trends - China's residents primarily rely on wage income, leading to a lower consumption tendency compared to developed countries [9][13] - The overall consumption inclination is affected by significant income inequality, with the top 1% of the population holding a substantial share of wealth [13][15] - The restaurant industry's revenue growth is expected to slow down significantly by 2025, with a notable decline in average spending per customer [15][17] Population Dynamics - China's total population has entered a phase of negative growth, with a significant concentration of young people in economically vibrant cities [18][20] - The labor force participation rate is declining, while the dependency ratio is increasing, indicating demographic challenges for the industry [20][23] Opportunities in the Restaurant Sector - The report draws parallels with Japan's consumption evolution, suggesting that China's restaurant industry can learn from Japan's experiences [31] - The three identified paths for growth include offering high-quality products at lower prices, leveraging automation, and focusing on specific consumer segments such as single-person households and the elderly [32][33] Restaurant Supply Chain Insights - The restaurant supply chain is complex, involving multiple stages from raw material procurement to end-user sales [33] - The market for restaurant supply chains is projected to grow, with an expected market size of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase [35][36] Market Structure and Competition - The restaurant market is characterized by high closure rates and a fragmented landscape, with many small-scale chains dominating the market [37][38] - The supply side is marked by a lack of concentration, leading to weak bargaining power for suppliers [38] Labor Market Challenges - The restaurant industry faces rising labor costs and high turnover rates, with significant implications for operational efficiency [43][46] - The introduction of smart devices and semi-finished products is seen as a strategy to mitigate labor challenges and enhance efficiency [46][48]

第二增长曲线："红石榴计划"稳步推进 公司稳步推进多品牌发展战略，自"红石榴计划"提出以来，集团已孵化多个餐饮品牌，带动其他餐厅收 入同比明显增长。截至2025H1 末，除海底捞火锅之外，公司运营14 个餐饮品牌共计126 家餐厅，其中 运营"焰请烤肉铺子"70 家（2025H1 新开46 家）。2025H1，其他餐厅经营贡献收入6.0 亿元、同比增长 227%。 投资建议： 潜在顺周期高弹性催化： 我们认为，海底捞火锅相对中高价且直营占比高，若经营数据改善叠加可能的政策刺激催化可能会带来 业绩弹性。 我们看好公司经营企稳改善趋势，在创始人及新董事会团队带领下，火锅业务稳健发展，"红石榴计 划"构筑新增长曲线。基于25H1 业绩表现，我们调整盈利预测，预计25-27 年归母净利42.3/46.3/52.1 亿 元（此前25-27年盈利预测为53.0/58.6/65.3 亿元）、对应PE 分别为19/18/16X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：食品安全风险；同店修复不及预期；原材料价格上升风险等。 机构：天风证券 研究员：何富丽/李璇 经营企稳信号：元旦假期开门红，跨年消费升温2025H1 海底捞自营餐厅翻台率 ...

1月26日，旺顺阁连续21年的腊八爱心奉粥活动继续开展。受访者供图 旺顺阁腊八爱心奉粥活动在1月26日清晨开启，这也是旺顺阁集团连续第21年开展此项公益活动。据介绍，今年活动范围覆盖了超过北京10个社区、30余个 外卖配送站点，门店周边社区的居民、环卫工人、外卖小哥、赶路的上班族等，均可以就近喝到免费的腊八粥。"餐厅的大厨凌晨3时就到岗熬粥，腊八粥食 材包括了江米、紫米、红芸豆、红小豆、花生米、红枣、莲子、百合、葡萄干共9种原料，为了保证温度，特别定制了3000个保温焖烧罐及5000多个专用纸 杯。"此外，在腊八当天，在旺顺阁各门店消费的顾客也可以获赠一份腊八粥。 在护国寺小吃总店，一大早就有消费者排队，只为喝上一碗包括了莲子、瓜子、南瓜子、板栗、小枣、核桃仁、桂圆、百合、白芸豆等20余种粥料的腊八 粥。据护国寺小吃总店经理张猛介绍，熬制腊八粥每种原料的下锅时间都不一样，而且熬粥的"最后一小时"，师傅要不停地搅动上百斤的一锅粥，以保证其 均匀受热、不煳底，同时让粥料的各色香味完美融合。新京报记者了解到，从上周六开始，护国寺小吃总店、地安门店、西安门店等已经开启了腊八粥销 售。张猛预计，仅总店在腊八节当天的销量 ...

火锅巨头入局，糖水赛道"激战"局面进一步加剧。 海底捞似乎要对糖水"动真格"了。 近日，海底捞首家"糖水铺"特色主题店在上海亮相，选择在现有火锅店内以"店中店"的模式呈现，主打"每日鲜作"糖水。 从早期自助区的免费DIY糖水，到如今打造"火锅+糖水"的场景，海底捞正一步步将这道"餐后甜点"玩出新花样。 只是，在本就竞争激烈的糖水赛道，这位火锅巨头又能激起多大水花呢？ 9.9元起，海底捞开出首家"糖水铺"特色主题店 有人一进门先来一碗垫垫肚子，有人边涮毛肚边舀一勺解辣，也有人把它当作吃完火锅后的餐后甜品。 而如今，这碗糖水有了"专属舞台"。 据了解，海底捞首家"糖水铺"特色主题店位于上海虹桥南丰城四楼，由原等位区及奶茶档口改造而来，其中糖水铺面积约72平方米。店内糖水按碗单独售 卖，并设有独立就餐区域，营造沉浸式的糖水消费体验。 这也意味着，即便不吃火锅，顾客也能单独下单一碗海底捞的糖水。 目前，糖水铺共推出了13款鲜作糖水产品，涵盖西瓜雪酪、清补凉、榴莲白血糯米、木薯大满贯等经典和创意口味，定价在9.9-20元之间。其中清补凉价 格最低，只需9.9元/份，价格最高的是木薯大满贯和糖水仙草大满贯，均为20元/份 ...

田地 西部证券食品饮料分析师: 它现在就是盈利预测这块的话，我们给到 26 年大概就是 6 个点左右的收入的增速，然后 利润的增速大概 10 个点，我觉得这个是相对一个比较一个保保守的这个业绩预测。待会 这个具体的拆分后面会，我会再讲到，然后这估值的话对应 26 年大概就是个 15 倍左右的 估值。对，这个核心我们核心的推荐逻辑是要，然后后面我就重点讲一下这个就是对这公 司，就是设计，跟盈利预测相关的，包括跟这个刚才讲的几块业务拆分的，这个就是就几 块业务具体的拆分吧。 然后首首先就是我们也看一下那个怡海它的这个股价的复盘。就确实它从这个 16 年上市 之后吧，然后整个公司是经历了一波这个，从扩张，然后到这个可能，就是估值泡沫，然 后后面有这个估值修整，然后最后再到现在一个这样价值企稳的这个过程中。那我们能看 到，其实在大概，就 21 年的时候，公司的估值当时达到一个非常高的水平。然后那个时 候给了非常高的估值溢价，主要来自于几点，一个是这个海底捞。当时的一个很强的品牌 的溢出效应。然后第二个就是这个市场当时对这个公司的，比如说素素素食，还有包括副 条这些产品，然后包括这个赛道，就是都预期非，这个成长性预期非 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Industry**: Consumer Sector, specifically focusing on the restaurant and jewelry industries - **Companies Discussed**: Haidilao (restaurant), Laopuhuang (jewelry), and Proya (cosmetics) Key Points and Arguments Haidilao 1. **Performance Recovery**: Haidilao's performance is showing signs of stabilization, with a notable recovery in customer turnover rates in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, maintaining an average customer spend of around 100 RMB [2][6] 2. **Management Changes**: The return of Zhang Yong is expected to positively influence the company's operations, although specific growth targets have not been set. The potential for new store openings is contingent on stabilizing turnover rates [3][4] 3. **Brand Expansion**: Haidilao is exploring multi-brand strategies, with new concepts like barbecue and sushi being developed, which could enhance its market presence [4][5] 4. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is at a low point, particularly in the Hong Kong market, but there is potential for a rebound due to low expectations and valuations [1][6] 5. **Future Outlook**: For 2026, the revenue forecast is cautiously optimistic, with estimates suggesting a recovery in performance, potentially reaching 4.5 to 4.7 billion RMB [6][7] Laopuhuang 1. **Sales Momentum**: Laopuhuang is experiencing a surge in customer interest, particularly during the Valentine's Day season, with expectations of exceeding previous sales records due to rising gold prices and promotional activities [9][10] 2. **Brand Strength**: The brand's positioning and market presence have strengthened, with significant customer engagement observed during promotional events, indicating a robust demand outlook [11][12] 3. **Pricing Strategy**: There is anticipation of price increases following the Valentine's Day period, which could further enhance sales performance [10][11] 4. **Market Positioning**: Laopuhuang's strategy includes optimizing store locations and expanding its product offerings, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [12][13] Proya 1. **Valuation and Growth Potential**: Proya is currently undervalued, with a projected earnings multiple of around 15 times for 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][20] 2. **Management Changes**: Recent leadership changes are expected to bring new strategies and innovations, particularly in product development and market positioning [19][20] 3. **Product Innovation**: The introduction of new product lines, particularly in the skincare segment, is anticipated to capture market share and drive sales growth [20][21] 4. **Acquisition Strategy**: Proya is actively pursuing acquisition opportunities, particularly in the cosmetics sector, to enhance its market presence both domestically and internationally [22][23] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: The overall consumer sentiment remains cautious, but there are signs of potential recovery in spending, particularly in the restaurant and jewelry sectors [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Haidilao and Laopuhuang adapting their strategies to meet changing consumer preferences and market conditions [4][10] - **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of market trends and consumer behavior will be essential for assessing the performance of these companies in the upcoming quarters [24]

内容概要：烤肉品类所特有的"围炉共食"模式，深度契合中式社交的核心场景需求，从家庭团圆聚餐、 好友闲暇小聚到商务宴请等多元场景，该模式均能精准匹配不同群体的社交诉求，相较于其他餐饮品 类，烤肉消费的体验感尤为突出，其核心优势在于强互动性与高氛围感的双重加持，消费者愿意为这类 差异化的体验价值支付溢价，这也成为驱动烤肉行业持续增长的核心逻辑，据统计，2025年第四季度我 国烤肉门店数量达20.5万家，较2024年同期净增5.2万家；同期市场规模攀升至1060亿元，实现同比 1.0%的增长。 二、发展历程 2021年以来，在后疫情时代的消费复苏与消费分级背景下，烤肉行业呈现多元化、创新化的发展特征， 轻食烤肉、健康烤肉成为新趋势，品牌开始注重低油、低盐的烹饪方式，迎合健康饮食的需求；沉浸式 体验成为门店引流的关键，露营风烤肉、国潮风烤肉、主题式烤肉门店层出不穷，通过场景打造提升消 费者的体验感和传播性，此外，数字化运营深度融入行业，从食材溯源、智能点餐到会员管理，全链路 的数字化改造提升了门店的运营效率，行业竞争从产品、价格转向品牌、体验和供应链的综合实力竞 争。 中国烤肉行业的发展历程 三、市场政策 相关上市企 ...

一个公司的创始人，往往都是公司的灵魂人物，一般情况下都是公司出现了非常重要的问题，创始人才会出来力挽狂澜，这样的剧本相信很多人都已经非常 熟悉了，然而就在最近知名的火锅巨头海底捞的创始人再度出山，张勇的回归到底会给海底捞带来什么？ 一、海底捞创始人再出山 据蓝鲸新闻的报道，海底捞国际控股有限公司发布公告称，苟轶群辞去CEO，张勇接任。这是张勇时隔四年再次担任海底捞CEO。 2022年3月，张勇宣布卸任CEO职务，由有着"最牛服务员"之称的副首席执行官兼首席运营官杨利娟接任。2024年6月杨利娟辞任海底捞执行董事及首席执行 官，转向主导海底捞海外业务。海底捞将CEO更换为有财务背景的苟轶群。公告显示，苟轶群自2000年1月起为海底捞的关键成员，拥有逾24年的行业及管 理经验。在海底捞任职期间，曾担任首席财务官、信息技术负责人、供应链及采购管理负责人等多个职位。 苟轶群在任期间最亮眼的业绩莫过于"红石榴计划"。2024年苟轶群领导创新创业委员会，领导和推动新品牌及新业务的孵化与发展。同时海底捞五位高管组 成海底捞"运营五虎将"，聚焦创新创业项目和公司整体发展。"单一赛道的天花板、压力都会较大，要想让更多的海底捞员 ...

Core Insights - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao is driven by declining revenue and profit, with a 3.7% year-on-year revenue drop and a 13.7% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][3] - Key metrics such as customer traffic and table turnover rates have also decreased, with a loss of 10 million customers and a turnover rate dropping to 3.8 times per day, below the target of 4 times [1][3] Revenue and Customer Behavior - The average spending per customer has decreased from 110 yuan in 2020 to below 100 yuan, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards more cost-effective dining options [3][32] - Online discussions about cost-effective dining strategies at Haidilao have emerged, reflecting a trend where customers are seeking to maximize value [3][32] Business Strategy and Expansion - Haidilao has attempted various strategies to address these challenges, including transforming some locations into "nightclubs" and expanding into the children's meal market amid competitors' crises [5][9] - The company has launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to foster internal innovation and entrepreneurship, resulting in the incubation of 14 new brands and the opening of 126 new stores by mid-2025 [17][20] Market Position and Competition - Despite the impressive growth in "other restaurant income" by 227%, the revenue from these new brands is still significantly lower than that of the main Haidilao brand, indicating that these initiatives have not yet alleviated the financial pressures on the core business [23][30] - The competitive landscape has shifted, with consumers prioritizing price over brand loyalty, leading to increased pressure on Haidilao to adapt its pricing and service models [32][34] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - Haidilao's high labor costs, which account for approximately 30% of expenses, are significantly higher than many competitors, necessitating a focus on operational efficiency to maintain profitability [34][39] - The company is exploring ways to enhance efficiency through shared supply chains with its sub-brands, which has contributed to better performance in some new ventures [39][41] Consumer Trends and Expectations - Current consumer preferences indicate a strong desire for value, with many customers favoring substantial food quality over extravagant service or ambiance [32][37] - Haidilao is responding to these trends by launching new concepts that emphasize fresh ingredients and competitive pricing, such as the "Fresh Cut Beef Workshop" and "Seafood Workshop" [37][39]