本文源自：金融界AI电报 春节假期临近，港股市场餐饮股逆势上涨，其中，百胜中国涨超7%，翠华控股涨超4%，九毛九、海底 捞涨近4%，上海小南国涨近3%。 ...

与此同时，餐饮市场与冻品市场开启"披萨大战"模式。在餐饮市场上，海底捞、紫光园、塔斯汀等餐饮品牌纷纷涌入披萨赛道，与必胜客、达美乐开启混 战模式；冻品市场，速冻披萨产品内卷升级，行业进入发展深水区…… 餐饮惊现"披萨大战" 近段时间，比格披萨递交上市申请，剑指"中国自助披萨第一股"。该事件一出便引发了行业内外的广泛关注。 作为自助披萨产业的品牌代表，比格披萨的上市申请让更多人把目光放到了披萨这个细分品类上。传统披萨是来自于意大利的"舶来品"，这几年却在餐饮 市场上迅速走红，成为了西式快餐市场的重要品类之一。 从餐饮市场来看，2025年11月14日，海底捞旗下披萨品牌"小嗨爱炸·中国披萨"在沣西吾悦广场开出西安首店。主打本土风味创新，推出贵州风味金汤软 哨梅肉披萨等特色产品，以海底捞的供应链与运营能力为依托，探索小业态、多场景模式披萨赛道。 塔斯汀作为"中式汉堡"品牌，近期也瞄准了"中国披萨"赛道，开出"塔斯汀·中国披萨店"，首店位于泉州晋江。产品包括披萨、意面、汉堡、牛排等以及鸡 块、虾球等小吃，单个8寸披萨价格为18-28元，颇具性价比。 比格披萨递交上市申请， 餐饮、冻品"披萨大战"， 卷出新高度！ 日前 ...

消息面上，近日，海底捞管理层发生重要人事调整，创始人张勇重新担任公司首席执行官职位。同时四 位在公司工作多年、实战经验丰富的年轻骨干获任为执行董事。兴业证券指出，海底捞和颐海国际为兄 弟公司关系，张勇先生夫妇亦为颐海国际的大股东，同时两个公司的管理团队和经营相互独立。 智通财经APP获悉，颐海国际(01579)再涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.45%，报15.27港元，成交额6494.25万 港元。 招商证券发布研报称，海底捞创始人张勇回归，对海底捞人员士气、内部管理都有提振，同时强调红石 榴计划更加积极，创造增量。其孵化品牌的调味料以颐海供应为主，未来颐海关联方业务有望充分享受 新品牌成长红利。此外，海底捞对品质管理更加严格，颐海作为关联方供应商，未来预计提供更加优质 产品，并在供应体系中扮演更重要的角色，与海底捞实现双赢。 ...

严宁馨 兴业证券分析师: 各位投资人，大家下午好，欢迎参加我们的这个海外消费系列会议。那么我们今天跟大家 汇报的是这个海底捞的。一个个股的情况，我们会对公司做一个具体的拆解，包括也会更 新一下我们的近期的一个整体观点，会比较细致的对这个公司的一些基本面做一些分析。 那整体来看的话，我们从结论上来说的话，还是对这个公司持以一个积极的态度。那首先 我们如果回顾一下 25 年，这个公司的一个基本面的情况来说，那实际上它的一方面是从 电销端来看，是呈现出来了一个前低后高的一个走势。 那么看到在上半年的话，公司的整体翻台也好，或者是同店的翻台的表现也好，实际上都 是有所承压的。那可能是有一些同比的一个下降，但是到了三季度、四季度以来，那一方 面的确也是有基数性的一个原因，同时的话，从总部层面来看，也有加强一些管理。那也 逐步的开始把张总的一些战略等等更集中的嫁接进公司的这个前线的一线体系里面来。再 加上包括像是去年下半年的三季度是暑期旺季，再到四季度又是冬天的一个火锅旺季，所 以到下半年来看的话，翻台是逐步的变好的，看到像在去年三季度的翻台，不管是同店还 是整体。 它是同样的一个走势，就是从降得比较多，逐步地看到一个降 ...

Core Insights - The retail industry is facing significant challenges as companies attempt to learn from successful models like Fat Donglai, but many are failing to replicate its success [2][15][20] Group 1: Performance of Retail Companies - Yonghui Supermarket, once a leader in the retail sector, has reported continuous losses, with a projected net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses [2][8] - The company has closed 381 stores in 2025, averaging over one store closure per day, leading to direct losses of 1.174 billion yuan due to store renovations and closures [9][10] - Other retailers, such as Meitoh and Bubu Gao, have also struggled after attempting to adopt the Fat Donglai model, with significant declines in net profits [12][14] Group 2: Learning from Fat Donglai - Many retailers, including Yonghui, have attempted to learn from Fat Donglai's operational model, but most have failed to achieve satisfactory results, often resulting in increased losses [15][20] - The core issue lies in the inability of these companies to fundamentally restructure their business models and supply chains, leading to superficial imitation rather than genuine transformation [15][20] - Fat Donglai's success is attributed to its unique supply chain, employee welfare, and customer trust, which are difficult for larger, publicly traded companies to replicate due to their existing profit structures and shareholder pressures [16][19] Group 3: Financial Metrics - Yonghui's total revenue for 2024 was 67.57 billion yuan, down from 78.64 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross profit of 13.82 billion yuan [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yonghui reported a net loss of 709.8 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's loss of 77.87 million yuan [9] - Bubu Gao's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.201 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 26.45%, but its net profit dropped to 225.5 million yuan, down nearly 90% from the previous year [12][13]

2026年1月13日，海底捞一纸公告，瞬间成为餐饮业、资本市场乃至商业财经的热闻：公司创始人、董事会主席张勇，重新出任CEO。 第二天，海底捞股价应声大涨，单日狂飙超9%。 2020年4月，张勇就曾通过公司内部邮件宣布，自己将在10至15年内退休。因此，此举也被外界视为是他提前培养接班团队，为彻底退休做准备。 但事情的发展显然超出他的预计。 此后四年时间里，海底捞非但没有让他更容易彻底退休，反倒陷入罕见的换帅动荡之中，变得更加需要他。 曾被誉为"最牛服务员"的杨利娟，仅在帅位上坚持了两年零三个月，于 2024年6月转而负责海底捞海外业务；杨利娟的继任者苟轶群，更是仅仅干了一年 半便匆匆卸任。 四年三换CEO背后，是海底捞的业绩持续承压。 2025年上半年，海底捞营收同比下降3.7%至207亿元，净利润同比下滑高达13.7%。 许多人都认为，这标志着，海底捞将打响一场大力度的反击战了。 重回一线 55岁的张勇重回一线，距离"退居二线"才不到四年。 2022年3月，张勇在承认"对趋势判断错误"，并为激进扩张导致的巨额亏损负责后，将CEO一职交到了自己最得力的干将杨利娟手上。 更令市场揪心的是核心指标的失守，其直营 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

以下文章来源于红餐网 ，作者红餐编辑部 红餐网 . 做餐饮，上红餐 ！一个有温度的餐饮产业服务平台。 这是 海底捞 首次 以 "店中店" 的形式 试水糖水业务 。 火 锅 巨头 入局 ， 糖水 赛道 " 激战 " 局面 进一步 加剧 。 本文由红餐网(ID：hongcan18)原创首发，作者：周沫；编辑：倩君。 海底捞似乎要对糖水 " 动真格 " 了 。 近日，海底捞首家 "糖水铺"特色主题店在上海亮相，选择在 现有火锅店内 以 "店中店" 的 模式 呈现 ， 主打 "每日鲜作"糖水 。 从早期自助区的免费 DIY糖水，到如今 打造 "火锅+糖水"的 场景 ，海底捞 正 一步步将这道 "餐 后甜点"玩出 新花样 。 只是 ， 在 本 就 竞争激烈 的糖水赛道 ， 这位 火锅巨头 又 能激起多大 水 花 呢 ？ 9.9元起，海底捞开出首家"糖水铺"特色主题店 在海底捞吃糖水， 不是 什么 新鲜事 。 但这一次，玩法 有了 明显 升级 。 过去， 消费者 大多是 在 小料台 见到 糖水 —— 它作为 自助小料的 一部分， 就摆在麻酱、香 油、蒜泥旁边， 包含在小料费内。 客人可以根据个人喜好自由搭配 ， 还能无限 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].