Summary of Haidilao International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International - **Industry**: Restaurants - **Market Cap**: HK$98.2 billion / US$12.6 billion - **Shares Outstanding**: 5,574 million - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since September 2018 Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Revenue**: Rmb42.8 billion, up 3% YoY - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb4,708 million, up 5% YoY - **H2 2024 Revenue**: Rmb21.3 billion, down 6% YoY - **H2 2024 Net Profit**: Rmb2,670 million, down 19% YoY - **H2 2024 Net Margin**: 12.5%, highest since 2018 - **Dividend Payout Ratio**: 95% in 2024 Performance Analysis - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: 63.2% in H224, up 4.2 percentage points YoY - **SG&A Ratio**: 48.4%, 1.6 percentage points above expectations due to higher labor and rental costs - **Average Table Turn**: Improved to 4.1x per day in 2024, down from 4.3x in H2 2023 - **Average Spending per Customer**: Rmb97.5 in 2024, slightly down from Rmb99.1 in 2023 Store Network and Strategy - **New Openings**: 62 units opened (59 self-operated, 3 franchised) and 70 units closed in 2024 - **Franchise Strategy**: 70% of franchise applications from tier-3 and below cities - **Multi-brand Strategy**: Operates 74 stores under 11 small brands, with over 40 Yanqing Barbeque restaurants averaging Rmb0.8 million sales per store per month Future Outlook - **Store Opening Guidance**: Management maintains guidance to open a mid-single-digit percentage of new Haidilao stores in 2025, with contracts signed for 41 new stores as of February 2025 - **Price Target**: Raised to HK$20.66 from HK$19.35, with a "Buy" rating Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Deteriorating macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending - Rising commodity and labor costs - Food safety incidents - **Downside Risks**: - Cannibalization among restaurants due to aggressive expansion - Competition from local hotpot restaurants and supermarkets - Challenges in adapting to delivery and takeaway services Valuation Metrics - **P/BV (12/25E)**: 8.0x - **Forecast Stock Return**: 22.8% - **Forecast Dividend Yield**: 5.6% Conclusion Haidilao International shows a mixed performance with a solid revenue increase but challenges in net profit and store openings. The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy and expanding its franchise network while managing costs and risks associated with the restaurant industry. The raised price target reflects a positive outlook despite the challenges ahead.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan in 2024, exceeding expectations, with total revenue of 42.8 billion yuan (yoy +3%) and core operating profit of 6.2 billion yuan (yoy +19%) [1][3] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024, which is the highest since its listing, providing attractive shareholder returns with a current annualized dividend yield of about 5% [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a focus on enhancing customer spending and improving table turnover rates, which are projected to reach 4.1 in 2024, up from 3.8 in 2023 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth [1][11] - The core operating profit margin improved by 2 percentage points, with gross margin increasing by approximately 3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs [2] Growth Potential - The company is expected to open new stores at a moderate single-digit growth rate in 2025, supported by a high table turnover rate and the introduction of the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the development of new restaurant brands [1][3] - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to foster the growth of new dining brands, which has already resulted in 74 new stores by the end of 2024, enhancing long-term growth potential [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.2 billion yuan, 5.9 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10% [3][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential valuation premium due to the company's leading position in the industry [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Haidilao is launching the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate independent brands internally, aiming to address market saturation and consumer segmentation challenges while fostering employee entrepreneurship [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - By the end of 2024, Haidilao's other restaurant revenues reached 483 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [2]. - The company has already established 11 sub-brands, including "Yanjing BBQ," "Fire Flame Official," and "Little Hi Hot Pot," with a total of 74 stores [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan" encourages employees to manage multiple stores, allowing store managers to oversee both the main brand and incubated brands, thus promoting talent sharing [2][3]. - The plan symbolizes internal innovation and entrepreneurship, with a focus on project replicability and alignment with economic trends [3][5]. Group 3: Internal Structure and Evaluation - The internal "Entrepreneurship Committee" acts similarly to a venture capital entity, evaluating new projects based on their replicability, market trends, and integration of automation and digital operations [8][9]. - Projects may be voluntarily shut down by founders or based on data assessments by the company, with a structured review mechanism in place [9]. Group 4: Employee Engagement and Incentives - The incentive mechanism for the entrepreneurial teams includes equity incentives, profit sharing, and salary guarantees, aligning the interests of founders with the company's performance [9]. - Employees are excited about the potential for career advancement, seeing opportunities to manage new brands beyond just Haidilao [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved operating revenue and net profit of 42.755 billion and 4.708 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 3.14% and 4.65% respectively [7] - The increase in revenue was driven by improved table turnover rates, with the average daily turnover rate rising to 4.10 times per day [7] - The company has implemented a "Red Pomegranate" plan, resulting in the establishment of 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new outlets, contributing to a 39.6% increase in other restaurant operating income [7] - Cost optimization has led to a core net profit margin increase of 1.91 percentage points to 14.57% in 2024, with significant reductions in the proportion of raw materials and other costs [7] - The company expects continued profit improvement through enhanced supply chain and cost control capabilities [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 42.755 billion RMB, with a net profit of 4.708 billion RMB, and an EPS of 0.84 RMB [1][8] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.259 billion, 5.639 billion, and 6.167 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.01, and 1.11 RMB [1][8] - The P/E ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 16.44x, 15.33x, and 14.02x respectively [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue and net profit of 42.755 billion and 4.708 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 3.14% and 4.65% respectively. The second half of 2024 saw operating revenue and net profit of 21.264 billion and 2.670 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -5.78% and +19.14% [7] - The increase in revenue was driven by improved table turnover rates, with the average customer spending stabilizing. The total number of customers served increased by 4.47% to 415 million, while the average spending per customer decreased by 1.77% to 97.5 RMB [7] - The company's performance exceeded market expectations due to cost optimization, with the core net profit margin increasing by 1.91 percentage points to 14.57% [7] - The "Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the establishment of 11 new restaurant brands and 74 outlets, contributing to a 39.6% increase in other restaurant operating income [7] - The company is expected to continue strengthening its supply chain and cost control capabilities, which may lead to further profit improvements in the coming years [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts operating revenue of 45.612 billion, 48.793 billion, and 51.761 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.68%, 6.97%, and 6.08% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 5.259 billion, 5.639 billion, and 6.167 billion RMB, with growth rates of 11.69%, 7.22%, and 9.37% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.94, 1.01, and 1.11 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 16.44x, 15.33x, and 14.02x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. Core operating profit reached 6.23 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1]. - The company has initiated a franchise business, successfully launching 13 franchise restaurants in 2024, contributing 16.71 million yuan in revenue. Over 70% of franchise applications are from third-tier cities and below [4]. - The company has also launched the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the incubation and development of new restaurant brands, resulting in 11 new brands with a total of 74 stores, generating 480 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's restaurant system sales increased by 3% year-on-year, with same-store sales growing by 3.6% [2]. - The average table turnover rate for self-operated restaurants was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year [2]. - The overall average customer spending was 97.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, attributed to changes in the consumption structure [2]. Cost and Efficiency - The cost of raw materials accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year due to lower procurement prices. Employee costs increased to 33.0%, up 1.5 percentage points, reflecting higher wages and benefits [3]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.507 HKD per share, alongside an interim dividend of 0.391 HKD, resulting in an overall dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024 [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue optimizing store operating efficiency and expanding its franchise business, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.3 billion, 5.86 billion, and 6.53 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao reported a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.708 billion yuan for 2024, marking year-on-year growth of 3.14% and 4.65% respectively [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The table turnover rate increased from 3.8 times per day in 2023 to 4 times per day in 2024, reaching the company's internal threshold for expansion [1] - In 2024, Haidilao opened 62 new restaurants, re-opened 2 previously closed locations, and closed or relocated 70 restaurants [2] - The average table turnover rate for new restaurants in 2024 was 4.4 times per day, outperforming older locations [3] Group 2: Franchise Strategy - Haidilao launched its franchise model in 2024, with a total of 1,368 restaurants, including 13 franchise locations, of which only 3 were newly opened franchises [2] - The company established a three-round screening mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and operational capability, resulting in a low approval rate for applicants [2] - The franchise model is seen as a supplement to existing operations rather than a replacement, with 70% of franchise applications coming from third-tier cities and below [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The average customer spending decreased to 97.5 yuan in 2024, a drop of 1.6 yuan year-on-year, returning to levels seen eight years ago [3] - Despite the decline in average spending, there was a slight increase in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 yuan in the latter half [3] - Haidilao's takeaway business saw a revenue increase of 20.4%, rising from 1.0415 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.254 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the introduction of a "single meal" premium takeaway service [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao and raises the target price to HK$ 20.20, based on an 18x FY25E P/E, up from 16x due to faster expansion and sector re-rating [1][13]. Core Insights - FY24 results showed a small beat primarily driven by robust gross profit margin expansion, with sales increasing by 3% YoY to RMB 42.8 billion, although this was below estimates due to greater-than-expected store closures [1][13]. - The company is expected to experience a mild turnaround in FY25E, supported by potential store expansion acceleration and margin improvements, despite stable same-store sales growth (SSSG) [1][10]. - The "Red Guava" project aims to encourage current store managers to open new restaurants under different brands, with 74 stores already established under 11 new brands as of FY24 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 42,755 million in FY24 to RMB 44,607 million in FY25, reflecting a 4.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,700 million in FY24 to RMB 5,213 million in FY25, indicating a 10.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to remain stable at 62.1% for FY25, supported by improved supply chain capabilities and better input costs [11][16]. Store Expansion and Management - Haidilao opened 59 self-owned stores and 3 franchise stores in FY24, resulting in a net decrease of 19 stores due to 70 closures [10]. - For FY25E, the company expects a net increase of approximately 40 stores, equivalent to about 3% YoY growth, with management estimating around 60-70 new openings [10]. - The adoption of multi-store management and digitalization is expected to enhance operational efficiency and staff productivity [10][11]. Earnings Revision - The FY25E net profit forecast has been cut by 10% to RMB 5,192 million, reflecting greater-than-expected store closures and a more conservative outlook on SSSG [11][13]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in gross profit margin, which is expected to positively impact overall profitability [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) with a current price of HKD 17.62 [1] Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of HKD 427.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of HKD 47.1 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was HKD 212.6 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 26.7 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao's restaurant operations, takeaway business, seasoning products, and other sales generated revenues of HKD 403.98 billion, HKD 12.54 billion, HKD 5.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 20.4%, -27.1%, and 39.6% [5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times per day in 2023 [6] - The overall customer unit price for 2024 was HKD 97.5, slightly down from HKD 99.1 in 2023, but the second half of 2024 saw a recovery in unit price [6] Cost Structure - In the second half of 2024, the net profit margin improved to 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs, which accounted for 36.8% of revenue [6] - For the full year 2024, raw material costs accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 sub-brands, aiming to diversify its offerings and enhance customer engagement [8] - The company plans to increase the number of main brand stores (including franchises) in 2025, focusing on third-tier cities and below [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Haidilao are adjusted to HKD 53.55 billion and HKD 59.71 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 65.15 billion [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 17x, indicating a mature single-store model and strong brand momentum [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 19.1% to 2.67 billion yuan [4][5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, compared to 3.8 times in 2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] - The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 new restaurant brands, contributing to revenue diversification and growth [8] Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: restaurant operations generated 40.398 billion yuan, delivery services 1.254 billion yuan, seasoning products and other sales 0.575 billion yuan, and other restaurant operations 0.483 billion yuan [5] - The company experienced a net decrease of 6 stores in 2024, ending the year with 1,368 locations [5] Cost Structure and Profitability - In the second half of 2024, the cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an improved net profit margin of 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The overall net profit margin for 2024 was 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in the number of new stores in 2025, focusing on expansion in lower-tier cities [9] - The successful operation of the "Pomegranate Plan" and the expansion of the "Flame Grilled Meat Shop" brand are expected to drive further revenue growth [9] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.355 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 13.7% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x based on the current stock price [9][10]