Core Viewpoint - Beijing Sports Lottery has initiated a cross-industry collaboration with the well-known restaurant brand Haidilao, establishing over 20 co-branded sales outlets in Beijing since the end of 2023, successfully integrating sports lottery into the dining experience [3][5]. Group 1: Collaboration and Innovation - The "Sports Lottery + Haidilao" sales outlets have been developed as a new sales channel and brand image showcase, receiving significant attention [5]. - The collaboration has allowed for innovative approaches to combine sports lottery with dining, enhancing customer engagement [3]. Group 2: Training and Engagement - Beijing Sports Lottery organized an event for representatives of the "Sports Lottery + Haidilao" sales outlets to observe the lottery draw process, aiming to deepen their understanding of the lottery brand culture [5][10]. - Participants engaged in interactive games to test their knowledge about the lottery, demonstrating a strong commitment to understanding the brand [7]. Group 3: Brand Culture and Public Perception - Haidilao's lottery business head emphasized the importance of internalizing the lottery's brand culture, such as "Public Welfare Lottery, Happy Life" and "Responsible Lottery, Public Welfare First," into daily operations [8]. - Representatives expressed their intention to share their experiences of the lottery draw with customers, reinforcing the transparency and fairness of the lottery process [12].

Core Insights - The "Shanghai Summer" International Consumption Season in 2025 is actively promoting night economy as a key driver for domestic demand and consumption [1] - Haidilao is enhancing its night-time offerings with new products and experiences, including a celebrity endorsement from actor Zeng Shunxi [1][3] Product Innovations - Haidilao has launched new items for the night snack segment, such as the "Jumping Frog Fish Hotpot," featuring unique broth made from traditional pickled vegetables and self-brewed lager beer [3] - The ingredients are carefully selected, including A-grade bullfrogs and black fish from Hunan and Hubei, along with creative dipping items like waterfall squid slices and various vegetable combinations [3] - New refreshing drinks and desserts have also been introduced, such as guava berry avocado drinks and coconut grapefruit ice cream [3] Scene Innovations - In response to policies encouraging night scene innovation, Haidilao has opened nearly 30 night snack-themed stores nationwide [3] - These stores can switch to "night snack mode" during specific hours, incorporating elements like DJ dance floors and bar stations to create a lively social atmosphere [3] - Data shows that the customer flow at the first night snack-themed store in Shanghai increased by approximately 15% during peak hours after the transformation [3] Experience Enrichment - Haidilao is integrating cultural and entertainment elements into its dining experience, such as the "Tang Dynasty Poetry Contest" and collaborations with popular shows for themed events [5] - The company offers services like themed private rooms and sound equipment rentals for concert fans, positioning itself as a "second venue" for live events [5] - This combination of food, social interaction, and entertainment is continuously revitalizing the summer night economy [5]

Core Insights - The importance of the supply chain in the restaurant industry is emphasized, as it connects upstream agricultural products with downstream dining enterprises, directly affecting operational costs and food quality [1] - Haidilao has maintained high standards for its supply chain over its 30 years of operation, focusing on integrity and quality to provide high-quality products to consumers [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Management - Haidilao classifies suppliers into A, B, and C grades based on risk levels, with a focus on managing and supporting high-risk suppliers [1] - The company has conducted approximately 4,000 surprise inspections on food safety projects across its nationwide stores and over 500 flying audits on suppliers, testing nearly 2,000 batches of materials by November 2024 [1] Group 2: Product Quality Assurance - The company has partnered with four bullfrog breeding bases after thorough research in regions like Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui, implementing various improvement measures to standardize breeding practices [2] - Haidilao's winter 2024 new product "浓浓浓菌汤" has received positive consumer feedback, with its main ingredient, mushrooms, sourced from strictly vetted partner factories [2] Group 3: Supplier Support and Training - Haidilao has established a food safety learning ecosystem for suppliers, providing training on food safety and processing standards, along with customized solutions to enhance management and production efficiency [2] - The company ensures traceability in the entire food supply chain, from sourcing to the dining table, by strictly selecting suppliers and providing technical support and talent development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline and rebirth of major companies, drawing parallels to Nietzsche's "Twilight of the Idols," and emphasizes the importance of understanding the lifecycle of businesses [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The report analyzes 12 notable companies, focusing on their peaks and challenges, including Pinduoduo and Lululemon, which are rethinking their user base despite differing pricing strategies [2]. - Starbucks and Yonghui are examined for their slow business pace amidst fast-changing market conditions [2]. - Haidilao and Meituan are assessed on how they are adapting in a time when dining costs are rising [2]. - Mixue Ice City is highlighted for its performance in lower-tier markets during challenging times [2]. - Intel's competitive position against TSMC and NVIDIA is questioned regarding its future viability [2]. - Toyota's late entry into the electric vehicle market raises concerns about its competitiveness [2]. - Alphabet's advancements in AI are scrutinized for their impact on the company's intelligence and market position [2]. - The report questions whether Hongkong Land can regain its former glory and if Disney can continue to leverage its intellectual property [2]. Group 2: Report Features - The report is noted for its depth, providing insights from financial data to market trends, and strategic directions to corporate mindsets, making it a valuable resource for industry professionals [4]. - It is designed to save time, allowing readers to grasp essential data points efficiently, compared to traditional methods like reading annual reports [5]. - The report serves practical purposes, helping users understand future industry trends and evaluate the reliability of a company's strategy [6].

Group 1 - The third China International (Foshan) Pre-made Food Industry Conference was held, releasing the "Top 100 Pre-made Food Enterprises in China by 2025" list, with 100 companies from 17 provinces (cities, districts) included [1][2] - Guangdong leads the nation with 21 companies on the list, including Dongguan's Hongjun Catering [1][2] - The ranking is based on data from mainstream e-commerce platforms, corporate financial reports, consumer reputation, media evaluations, product innovation, and other metrics, using the iiMeval big data evaluation model [2] Group 2 - The top-ranked company is Shuanghui Group, followed by well-known brands such as Haidilao, Wens Foodstuff, and others in the top ten [2] - Hongjun Catering, established in 1998, specializes in providing group meal services, catering consulting, kitchen design, and agricultural product distribution, and is noted for introducing robotic operations and standardized management [5] - Dongguan's food industry is rapidly transforming, with over 226 large-scale food enterprises, and the total output value of the food industry expected to exceed 100 billion in 2024 [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list was released, providing insights into the latest development trends of China's largest companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. topped the list with a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 64% [2] - Sails ranked second, while Haidilao took the third position; Nongfu Spring, Moutai, and Pinduoduo ranked fourth to sixth respectively [2]

Company Overview - The company is currently focusing on optimizing customer and employee experiences, which may lead to short-term profit pressure, but it is expected that the peak summer season and operational improvements will drive recovery [1] - As of July, the table turnover rate has turned positive year-on-year, suggesting a need to continue monitoring the trend [1] Comments - The focus on enhancing customer and employee experiences has resulted in short-term profit margin pressure due to observed declines in internal operational management quality [1] - The company is implementing the "Different Haidilao" concept by creating diverse store environments, launching differentiated products, and restoring the supply of certain items, which may increase material costs [1] - Increased brand marketing investments, including celebrity endorsements and IP collaborations, aim to attract consumers [1] - Employee welfare investments have been increased since Q2 to enhance employee satisfaction and service quality, which may negatively impact short-term profit margins due to rising employee costs [1] Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the brand's table turnover rate is estimated to have declined by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year due to last year's high base, consumer environment pressures, and operational management quality issues [2] - However, the table turnover rate has shown positive growth since July, driven by the summer peak season and various adjustments [2] - The company has a strong organizational iteration capability and has historically managed to reverse difficult situations, indicating a positive long-term outlook [2] New Brand and Franchise Developments - The company is focusing on the "Pomegranate Plan" and franchise progress, with expectations of approximately 70 new "Yanqing" barbecue stores by the end of June and around 100 by year-end [2] - The company plans to enhance service quality at existing stores while moderating the pace of new openings [2] - The franchise business is steadily advancing, with an estimated 25 direct stores transitioning to franchises in the first half of 2025 and approximately 41 franchise stores by the end of June [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the short-term profit pressure from optimizing customer and employee experiences, the net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 17% and 12% to 4.15 billion and 4.81 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 17x and 15x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The target price has been lowered by 18% to 16 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 15% based on 20x and 17x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer (China/Hong Kong) - **Market Cap**: Rmb68,977 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$13.92 - **Price Target**: HK$17.50 Key Financial Metrics - **1H25 Revenue**: Expected to decline by 3.5% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb20.7 billion - **1H25 Net Profit**: Expected to decline by approximately 5% yoy to Rmb1.9 billion - **2025 Revenue Forecast**: Cut by 6-7% to Rmb43.1 billion - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Cut by 14% to Rmb4.6 billion - **Gross Margin**: Expected to decline to 60.4-60.6% for 2025-2027, down by 2 percentage points from previous estimates Core Insights - **Traffic-Driven Pressure**: The decline in revenue is primarily due to weak traffic and table turnover, exacerbated by competition from food delivery platforms [3][9] - **Self-Help Initiatives**: The company is investing in service enhancements and product offerings to attract customers, which is leading to increased overhead costs and margin pressure in the short term [4][21] - **Positive Outlook for 2H25**: Anticipated recovery in table turnover and revenue growth due to a lower base and self-help initiatives, with expectations of less competition from delivery platforms in the fourth quarter [5][12][31] Financial Performance - **1H25 Financials**: - Revenue: Rmb20.7 billion, down 3.5% yoy - Net Profit: Rmb1.9 billion, down 5% yoy - Gross Profit Margin: 60.0%, down from 61.0% in 1H24 [15] - **Cost Structure**: Increased staff costs and overheads are impacting gross profit margins, with staff costs expected to remain high in 2025 [22][25] Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: The company faces intense competition from delivery platforms, which is affecting dine-in demand, particularly in the mid-price segment [12][31] - **Long-Term Growth Prospects**: Despite short-term challenges, the company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and its expansion strategy into different restaurant formats [32][33] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Valuation**: The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 15x based on revised 2025 EPS estimates, which is considered attractive given the company's resilient cash flow and management capabilities [14][26] - **Investment Rating**: Overweight, with a target price of HK$17.50, reflecting a potential upside of 26% from the current price [7][26] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Prolonged weak consumption and potential store closures could negatively impact performance, with EPS potentially 20% lower than base case forecasts in a bear scenario [37][43] - **Upside Potential**: Faster recovery in dine-in activities and new store openings could lead to better-than-expected demand recovery [30][43] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd is navigating a challenging macro environment with a focus on enhancing service and product offerings. While short-term pressures are evident, the company is positioned for a potential recovery in the latter half of 2025, supported by its unique business model and management strategies.

Core Insights - The "Top 100 Pre-made Dishes Companies in China" list was released at the third China International (Foshan) Pre-made Dishes Industry Conference, highlighting the dominance of Guangdong in the pre-made dishes sector [2][4][5]. Group 1: Rankings and Performance - The list features the top 100 companies in the pre-made dishes production sector, with Guangdong leading with 21 companies, followed by Shanghai with 11, and Shandong, Zhejiang, and Hunan each with 9 [6][11]. - The top-ranked company is Shuanghui Group from Henan, followed by Haidilao and Wens Foodstuff Group [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Composition - The majority of companies on the list are in food processing, accounting for 57 out of 100, while 22 are in the restaurant sector and 20 in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry [15][16]. - Guangdong's representation includes 9 companies in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, 8 in food processing, and 4 in the restaurant sector [12][13]. Group 3: Evaluation Criteria - The rankings are based on data from major e-commerce platforms, company financial reports, consumer reputation, media evaluations, product innovation, and other metrics, using a big data evaluation model [21][23]. - The evaluation focuses on five key indicators: comprehensive strength, R&D capability, brand reputation, brand influence, and product competitiveness, with scores ranging from 0 to 100 [24][25]. Group 4: Regional Highlights - The top 20 Guangdong specialty ingredients list was also introduced, showcasing products from various cities, with Zhanjiang shrimp ranked first [31][36]. - The evaluation of specialty ingredients considers media exposure, export performance, cultural influence, and e-commerce market performance [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has downgraded its profit forecasts for Haidilao from 2023 to 2027 by 7% to 10%, with a target price reduced to HKD 16.2 [1] Financial Performance - Nomura expects Haidilao's mid-term revenue to decline by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 20.5 billion, primarily due to the impact on table turnover rates [1] - Despite improvements in average spending per order, restaurant operations are estimated to decrease by 6% year-on-year [1] - The growth in takeout and barbecue businesses may partially alleviate the decline [1] Profitability Metrics - The firm has lowered its profit margin forecasts, predicting a contraction in operating profit margin and adjusted net profit margin by 0.3% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Food cost ratio is expected to increase by 2.4% compared to the second half of last year [1] - Operating expense ratio is projected to rise by 0.4% year-on-year due to efforts to provide better value products [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to decline by 8% year-on-year to RMB 1.8 billion [1] Long-term Outlook - The downgrade in net profit forecasts for the company from 2023 to 2027 reflects higher-than-expected operating costs [1] - The target price has been revised from HKD 20.2 to HKD 16.2, while maintaining a buy rating [1]