消息面上，据证券时报报道，2026年春节脚步临近，团年聚餐热度逐渐攀升。目前全国海底捞已接到除 夕用餐预订超5万桌。同时，全国各地有十余家海底捞新店、新场景亮相，为春节增加多元化餐饮供 给。据介绍，为更好承接春节期间的聚餐需求，海底捞将有超过1000家门店在除夕正常营业，超过1200 家门店在大年初一开门迎客；从大年初二起，全国超过1300家门店将恢复正常营业。 海底捞(06862)午后涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.07%，报17.14港元，成交额2.48亿港元。 华创证券表示，政策发力下，春节消费有望超预期复苏。九部门"乐购新春"方案、以旧换新补贴等政策 持续落地，叠加9天超长春节假期，有望带动黄金零售、酒旅、餐饮等服务消费行情，港股中集中的相 关受益标的将迎来短期反弹机会，春节消费数据有望超预期。 ...

消息面上，据证券时报报道，2026年春节脚步临近，团年聚餐热度逐渐攀升。目前全国海底捞已接到除 夕用餐预订超5万桌。同时，全国各地有十余家海底捞新店、新场景亮相，为春节增加多元化餐饮供 给。据介绍，为更好承接春节期间的聚餐需求，海底捞将有超过1000家门店在除夕正常营业，超过1200 家门店在大年初一开门迎客；从大年初二起，全国超过1300家门店将恢复正常营业。 智通财经APP获悉，海底捞(06862)午后涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.07%，报17.14港元，成交额2.48亿港 元。 华创证券表示，政策发力下，春节消费有望超预期复苏。九部门"乐购新春"方案、以旧换新补贴等政策 持续落地，叠加9天超长春节假期，有望带动黄金零售、酒旅、餐饮等服务消费行情，港股中集中的相 关受益标的将迎来短期反弹机会，春节消费数据有望超预期。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index halting a three-day rally, closing at 27,032.54, down 0.86% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.65%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1% [1][2] Sector Performance Technology Sector - Major tech stocks saw significant declines, with Meituan and NetEase both dropping over 4%, and Baidu and Tencent falling more than 2% [2][4] - Other tech companies like Kuaishou, Xiaomi, JD.com, and Alibaba also reported losses [2][4] Financial Sector - Financial stocks, including banks, Chinese brokerage firms, and insurance companies, mostly declined, adding pressure to the market [2] Consumer Sector - The restaurant sector faced downturns, with Jiumaojiu falling over 5% and Haidilao dropping more than 3% [6] - The overall consumer demand in the restaurant industry is stabilizing, with expectations for improvement in 2026 [6] Entertainment Sector - The film and entertainment sector was weak, with Emperor Culture Industries dropping nearly 6% [7] Energy Sector - The power equipment sector showed strength, with Harbin Electric rising over 13% [9] - The oil sector was active, with China Petroleum and Sinopec both gaining over 2% [14] Heavy Machinery Sector - Heavy machinery stocks continued to rise, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Sany International both increasing over 5% [12] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks saw gains, with Tensun Zhixin and Zhaoyi Innovation both rising over 20% [10] Notable Stocks - Dipo Technology surged by 8.34%, reaching a market value of 29.707 billion HKD [16] - The stock has increased 2.46 times since its IPO price of 26.66 HKD [21]

Core Insights - The market tends to favor positive narratives, as evidenced by Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan," which reported a remarkable 227% year-on-year increase in subsidiary business revenue, leading to positive evaluations from multiple brokerage firms [2][5] - However, the closure of the first store of "Xiao Hai Hot Pot" in Beijing and the exit of "Hai Ni Beef Spicy Hot Pot" from the Hangzhou market highlight the challenges faced by Haidilao's new brands [3] - The return of founder Zhang Yong as CEO has initiated a profound reassessment of Haidilao's value [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao's subsidiary business revenue reached 597 million yuan, accounting for only 2.9% of total revenue, but its growth rate has attracted significant attention [5] - Overall revenue for Haidilao in the first half of 2025 was 20.703 billion yuan, a decline of 3.7% year-on-year, while net profit dropped by 13.7% to 1.759 billion yuan [11] - The table turnover rate decreased from 4.2 times per day in 2024 to 3.8 times in 2025, indicating a decline in brand attractiveness and operational efficiency [11] Strategic Developments - The "Pomegranate Plan" is seen as a necessary growth narrative for Haidilao, especially as the main business approaches saturation [6] - The internal entrepreneurship mechanism within the "Pomegranate Plan" aims to stimulate organizational vitality through employee incentives [6] - The company is expected to focus more resources on profitable sub-brands while addressing the decline in its main business [12] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Zhang Yong's return as CEO, Haidilao's stock price surged by 9.29%, reflecting market optimism about potential performance improvements [13] - Citigroup maintained a "buy" rating on Haidilao, while Goldman Sachs issued a "neutral" rating, both acknowledging the strategic shift towards enhancing store profitability [13]

Group 1 - The "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative is organized by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments to stimulate consumer spending during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday [1] - The initiative includes various sectors such as catering, home appliances, transportation, tourism, and retail, promoting special offers and activities to enhance consumer experience [1] - Specific activities include encouraging restaurants to offer New Year's Eve dinner packages, increasing transportation capacity, and supporting local cultural events [1] Group 2 - Data from Meituan indicates a surge in retail sales of traditional New Year goods, with significant increases in demand for beverages, electronics, gold jewelry, and clothing since the start of the lunar calendar [2] - The restaurant sector is experiencing high demand, with many establishments fully booked for New Year's Eve, and Haidilao reporting over 50,000 reservations for that day [2] - The cultural and tourism sector is also active, with around 30,000 cultural and tourism events planned across the country, promoting themes related to traditional customs and winter activities [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate consumption, the government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in subsidies, with an additional 10 billion yuan in prize money for consumers participating in a receipt lottery in 50 cities [3] - The "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative aims to convert the festive atmosphere into tangible consumer activity through synchronized policies and market responses [3]

Company and Industry Summary Company: Haidilao Key Points 1. **Bottoming Out**: The fourth quarter showed no decline in table turnover year-on-year, and the average customer spending remained stable [1][2] 2. **Management Improvement**: Zhang Yong has been appointed as CEO of Haidilao to enhance efficiency and effectiveness from decision-making to execution, while maintaining a consistent strategy for the main brand and iterating on the development plan for the subsidiary, Hong Shiliu [1][2] 3. **Cyclical High Elasticity**: As a relatively low-frequency, mid-to-high-priced dining option among listed restaurants, Haidilao is expected to experience higher elasticity due to data improvements and anticipated policy stimuli, alongside potential growth from improved internal and external environments [1][2] 4. **Hot Pot Business Outlook**: Signals of bottoming out are strengthening, with same-store sales recovering steadily. The opening of new stores is projected to grow by a single-digit percentage, and profits are gradually returning to historical peak levels, with an estimated profit of 4.7 billion in 2024, although current tax reductions are decreasing [2] 5. **Barbecue Business Outlook**: - **Store Openings**: The domestic barbecue market is expected to reach approximately 106 billion in 2025, with 205,000 stores. The low chain rate in the barbecue sector suggests a potential for 1,000 new stores based on a market share of 0.5% [2] - **Single Store Performance**: The average customer spending is around 100 yuan, with projected annual revenue per store of approximately 8 million. For the first half of 2025, the barbecue segment is expected to contribute around 200 million in revenue, with a profit margin of 12%, leading to an estimated profit of 960,000 per store [2] 6. **Investment Recommendations**: Expected net profits for the parent company are projected at 4.2 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.2 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 times. There is an emphasis on monitoring the company's progress in diversifying its business under strong incentives to build a new growth curve, with a "Buy" rating maintained in anticipation of bottoming out and management improvements by the end of 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is that Haidilao is preparing for the Spring Festival by ensuring high-quality service and catering to the increased demand for family gatherings, with over 5,000 reservations for New Year's Eve and extensive store operations planned [1][2] - Haidilao will have more than 1,000 stores open on New Year's Eve and over 1,200 stores welcoming customers on the first day of the Lunar New Year, with more than 1,300 stores returning to normal operations from the second day [1] - The demand for family-oriented dining experiences is highlighted, with local residents making up a significant portion of reservations, and many tourists opting for a "travel + reunion" approach during the holiday [1] Group 2 - To support its workforce during the holiday, Haidilao is implementing measures to stabilize employment, including increased recruitment and diverse staffing strategies to ensure adequate personnel for high-quality operations [2] - The company is organizing various activities for employees, such as group meals and celebrations, to foster a festive atmosphere and support those working away from home during the holiday [2] - Haidilao is also launching a "Warm Winter Camp" for the children of employees who are working during the Spring Festival, featuring activities that promote family bonding and engagement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The return of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao is a significant strategic move aimed at addressing the company's recent challenges, including declining revenue and profits in 2025, and revitalizing its growth trajectory [3][10][11]. Company History and Development - Haidilao started in March 1994 with four tables in Sichuan, where founder Zhang Yong emphasized service quality as a key differentiator in a highly competitive hot pot market [4]. - The company underwent rapid expansion after its 2018 IPO, reaching 320 restaurants by mid-2018, and Zhang's net worth soared to over 500 billion [5]. - However, aggressive expansion led to operational challenges, including a significant drop in turnover rates and revenue, prompting a strategic reassessment [5][9]. Recent Challenges - In 2025, Haidilao faced a downturn, with revenue falling to 20.7033 billion, a 3.7% decrease year-on-year, and core operating profit dropping by 14.0% to 2.4081 billion [9]. - The decline was attributed to reduced turnover rates and initial adjustments in product and service innovation, highlighting the need for a more diversified approach to meet evolving consumer demands [9]. Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong stepped down as CEO in March 2022, with Yang Lijuan taking over, who implemented significant restructuring and cost-cutting measures to stabilize the company [8][10]. - Yang's leadership saw the introduction of innovative strategies and a focus on employee engagement, which helped halt the financial decline [8]. Future Strategies - With Zhang Yong's return as CEO, Haidilao aims to enhance dining experiences and service capabilities while leveraging digital operations for efficiency [10]. - The company plans to pursue a diversified business strategy, including the "Red Pomegranate Plan" for multi-brand incubation and potential acquisitions to expand its market presence [10][11]. - Analysts believe Zhang's return could improve decision-making efficiency and resource allocation, crucial for navigating the competitive landscape of the restaurant industry [11].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes focus on the **restaurant industry** in China, particularly highlighting major players such as **Haidilao** and **Yum China** [1][2]. Key Insights 1. **Restaurant Sales Growth**: The growth rate of restaurant sales continues to exceed the overall retail sales growth. In October, November, and December of 2025, the restaurant sales growth rates were 3.8%, 3.3%, and 2.2% respectively, while the overall retail sales growth rates were 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% [1]. 2. **Recent Trends**: From January to April 2025, the growth rates of overall retail sales and restaurant sales were roughly equal. However, from May to September 2025, restaurant sales growth lagged behind overall retail sales growth, but began to surpass it again in October, indicating signs of recovery in restaurant consumption [1]. 3. **Impact of Holiday Season**: The data for January and February 2026 is expected to remain strong due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, which is likely to sustain the positive trend in restaurant sales [2]. 4. **Yum China's Performance**: In Q4 2025, Yum China's same-store sales growth was +3%, with KFC showing the highest growth rate among its brands at +3%, and Pizza Hut at +1%. Q4 was noted as the fastest quarter for same-store sales growth for KFC in 2025 [2]. 5. **Stock Performance**: The stock prices of leading restaurant companies like Haidilao and Yum China are gradually reflecting the trend of recovery in restaurant consumption. The expected valuations for 2026 are approximately 18x for Haidilao and 19x for Yum China, suggesting potential for valuation increases if recovery stabilizes [2]. Additional Recommendations - Attention is also recommended for other leading restaurant companies such as **Xiaocaiyuan** and **Dashihua** [3]. Risk Factors - A key risk highlighted is the potential for the recovery of mass consumption to fall short of expectations, which could impact the overall performance of the restaurant industry [3].

Group 1 - Chinese restaurant giants are collectively transforming pizza, integrating local flavors and cultural elements into the product offerings [1][14] - Tastin is applying its successful model from the "Chinese hamburger" sector to the pizza category, focusing on local ingredients and affordable pricing [2][20] - The company aims to capture a significant share of the rapidly growing pizza market, projected to exceed 50 billion yuan this year, with a pricing strategy that keeps individual pizzas under 30 yuan [4][19] Group 2 - Haidilao is leveraging its strong supply chain capabilities to explore a new fast-food model with its brand "Xiao Hai Ai Zha · Chinese Pizza," introducing regional flavors into its offerings [6][24] - The pricing strategy for Haidilao's pizzas is positioned at a moderate level, focusing on unique flavors rather than engaging in price wars [10][27] - Ziguangyuan, a century-old brand, has successfully attracted younger consumers by innovating traditional dishes into pizza formats, such as the "Milk Skin Roast Duck Pizza" [12][36] Group 3 - The pizza market in China is characterized by a large scale and low concentration, providing ample opportunities for innovation and growth [15][19] - The market is expected to surpass 60.8 billion yuan by 2025, with a significant portion of growth coming from lower-tier cities [18][19] - Established players are replicating their successful business models in the pizza sector, as seen with Tastin's approach [20][22] Group 4 - The trend of affordable dining is driving the pizza category to penetrate deeper into everyday fast food consumption [27][28] - The adaptability of pizza as a meal option aligns with the growing demand for convenient and shareable food [28][36] - The transformation of Western fast food into a localized format reflects a significant shift in market dynamics, with Chinese brands now defining the rules of the game [28][39]