Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to focus on long-term quality growth while actively managing inventory levels, leading to a projected revenue of 70.67 billion yuan for 2024, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a challenging second half of 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 16.5% to 29.34 billion yuan, driven by a decrease in sales volume and a slight increase in price per ton [1][2]. - The company is strategically simplifying its product lines, particularly in the high-end segment, to stabilize market prices and ensure long-term development [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For 2024H2, the company expects a revenue of 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5%, and a net profit of 5.72 billion yuan, down 22.9% [1]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 58.44%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the release of self-owned production capacity and a focus on high-margin products [3]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased to 22.44%, down 0.92 percentage points, primarily due to increased management expenses related to depreciation and amortization [3]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on a dual-channel growth strategy, enhancing its presence in key markets while optimizing its organizational structure to support high-end product development [2][4]. - The company plans to adjust its product offerings to emphasize mid-range and high-end price points, aiming to capture changing consumer demands [4]. - The company has increased its number of distribution partners and retail outlets, indicating a commitment to expanding its market reach [2]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 73.28 billion yuan, 81.00 billion yuan, and 87.86 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the ongoing industry adjustment [4]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.25 billion yuan, 18.20 billion yuan, and 23.05 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.5, and 9.9 [4].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 珍酒李渡（06979） 证券研究报告 24H2 着眼长线主动降速，25 年高质量增长可期 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润 分别为 70.67/13.24/16.76 亿元（同比+0.5%/-43.1%/+3.3%），其中 2024H2 公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润分别为 29.34/5.72/6.58 亿元（同比 -16.5%/-22.9%/-19.8%）。 24H2 主动去库保证渠道良性，高端聚焦主品结构阶段承压。2024H2 公司 实现营收 29.34 亿元（同比-16.46%），销量/吨价分别同比-16.79%/+0.40%。 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 必需性消费/食物饮品 | | 6 个月评级 | 买入（维持评级） | | 当前价格 | 7.26 港元 | | 目标价格 | 港元 | 分品牌看，2024H2 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑营收分别为 17.77/6.38/3.50/1.13 亿元（同比-21.95%/+2.91%/-10.64%/-31.02%）。 分价格带看，2024H2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Zhenjiu Lidu reveals a significant decline in net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the current liquor industry cycle and highlighting issues with brand performance and market positioning [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu reported an operating income of 7.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 43.1% to 1.324 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in the fair value of non-operating financial instruments [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit stood at 1.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1]. - The overall net profit margin decreased from 33.10% in 2023 to 18.73% in 2024 [3]. Brand Performance - The core brand, Zhenjiu, generated revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, and has seen a continuous decline in sales for four consecutive years, with sales dropping to 12,284 tons [3][5]. - The Lidu brand, however, achieved revenue growth of 1.313 billion yuan, an 18% increase, attributed to market expansion beyond Jiangxi [3][5]. - The other brands, Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, focused on the Hunan market, with revenues accounting for 11.4% and 4.8% respectively, and Kaikouxiao's revenue decreased by 12% due to a sluggish wedding market [3][5]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from high-end products accounted for approximately 24% of total revenue, with a decline of nearly 11% to 1.709 billion yuan; mid-range and below products generated about 2.36 billion yuan, with a minimal growth of 0.1% [5]. - The company has implemented various strategies to enhance its high-end offerings, including launching new premium products and hosting experiential events, but faces ongoing challenges in achieving higher market positioning [5]. Inventory and Operational Challenges - The inventory turnover days increased significantly to 854.95 days in Q4 2024 from 679.64 days at the end of Q3, indicating rising inventory pressure [7]. - Despite expressing confidence in future growth and aspirations to become a world-class brewing enterprise, the company faces numerous uncertainties and challenges in navigating the current adjustment period in the liquor industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes high-quality development and long-term strategic planning, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term aggressive expansion [1][11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, up 3.3%, marking four consecutive years of double growth [2][5]. - The gross profit margin improved to 58.6% in 2024, reflecting a steady increase from previous years, indicating enhanced profitability [5][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin reached 23.7%, also showing a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, further demonstrating the company's improved financial health [5][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement rigorous team building, top-notch quality management, immersive experiences, and continuous brand awareness expansion as part of its 2025 strategy [1][13]. - The company is committed to maintaining a stable product structure without pursuing aggressive volume growth, focusing instead on quality and channel optimization [12][14]. Market Positioning - The company is actively adapting to the competitive landscape of the liquor industry, viewing the current adjustment period as an opportunity for brands prepared for steady development [7][8]. - The company has diversified its operations across three subsidiaries, effectively mitigating market volatility risks and capturing new growth opportunities [8][9]. Cash Flow and Returns - In 2024, the company's operating cash flow reached 780 million yuan, a significant increase of 116.3%, indicating a more robust financial position [5]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of 712 million Hong Kong dollars, a 16.7% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio nearing 40%, marking a historical high [10].

Core Insights - The 112th National Spring Sugar and Wine Fair provided a window for observing the white liquor industry, indicating a stabilization in channel sentiment despite a lack of significant recovery in the off-season after the Spring Festival [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with leading brands consolidating their market position while some second-tier brands face challenges during the adjustment period [1] Group 1: Market Stability and New Product Strategies - Channel feedback during the Spring Sugar Fair shows a "bottom stabilization" characteristic in the industry, with the price of Feitian Moutai stabilizing above 2200 yuan, providing a confidence anchor for profitability expectations [2] - New product strategies emerged as a highlight, with Yanghe launching the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan, enhancing its high-end positioning through upgraded base liquor and packaging [2] - The overall production of large-scale white liquor enterprises is expected to decline by 1.8% in 2024, while sales revenue and profit are projected to grow by 5.3% and 7.76% respectively, reflecting a "volume reduction and price increase" trend [2] Group 2: Brand Differentiation and Market Challenges - Recent financial reports highlight brand differentiation, with Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue slightly increasing by 0.5% in 2024, but its core brand "Zhenjiu" experiencing a 2.3% decline in sales [3] - The market's collection progress is increasingly divergent, with brands like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu experiencing slower collection rates, while Moutai maintains a 40% collection rate due to its strong brand power [3] - The industry is entering a verification period for policy effects, where high-end liquor companies with strong brand moats are expected to benefit first from a macroeconomic recovery, while brands facing price pressure may encounter further risks [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB for the year 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 2.93 billion RMB, down 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end and next-high-end products, with revenue from high-end products decreasing by 11% to 1.71 billion RMB, while next-high-end products saw a 9% increase to 3.00 billion RMB [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.3% increase [1]. - The second half of 2024 experienced a revenue drop to 2.93 billion RMB, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% [1]. Operational Analysis - Revenue by product for 2024: Zhenjiu 4.48 billion RMB (-2%), Lidou 1.31 billion RMB (+18%), Xiangjiao 800 million RMB (-4%), and Kaikouxiao 340 million RMB (-12%) [2]. - The company adjusted its market expansion strategy, slowing down the growth of Zhenjiu and focusing on high-end products, which still showed double-digit growth [2][3]. Financial Quality - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.6 percentage points to 58.6%, with adjusted net profit margin rising to 23.7% [3]. - The company reported a year-end balance of 6.9 billion RMB in accrued rebates and 1.75 billion RMB in advance customer payments, showing a slight increase and decrease respectively compared to the previous year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a revenue growth of 3.0% in 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 17.1% to 1.55 billion RMB [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0X for 2025, 13.3X for 2026, and 10.6X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,066,784 thousand, representing a 0.5% increase from RMB 7,030,467 thousand in 2023[7] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,143,040 thousand, up 1.5% from RMB 4,079,948 thousand in 2023[7] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year decreased by 43.1% to RMB 1,323,622 thousand from RMB 2,327,083 thousand in 2023[7] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) increased by 3.3% to RMB 1,676,275 thousand from RMB 1,622,602 thousand in 2023[7] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 116.3% to RMB 781,003 thousand from RMB 361,226 thousand in 2023[7] - The gross margin improved to 58.6% in 2024 from 58.0% in 2023, while the net margin decreased to 18.7% from 33.1%[10] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 1,323.6 million for the year, compared to RMB 2,327.1 million in 2023, a decline of 43.2%[96] - Total revenue for the year 2024 reached RMB 7,066,784,000, a slight increase from RMB 7,030,467,000 in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 0.5%[106] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 1,894,332,000 for 2024, down from RMB 2,885,682,000 in 2023, representing a decline of 34.4%[113] Brand Performance - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, contributed approximately 63.4% of the company's revenue as of December 31, 2024, maintaining its position as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China[20] - Revenue from the brand Zhenjiu decreased by 2.3% to RMB 4,479.7 million, primarily due to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in lower-margin products[59] - Revenue from the brand Lidu increased by 18.3% to RMB 1,312.9 million, driven by the growth of core products and expansion into markets outside Jiangxi Province[59] - Revenue from the brand Xiangjiao decreased by 3.7% to RMB 802.5 million, with a decline in sales of the strong aroma series partially offset by growth in the Longjiang series[59] - Revenue from the brand Kaikouxiao decreased by 12.3% to RMB 337.4 million, impacted by a sluggish wedding market and a reduction in low-margin product sales[59] Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to expand into new consumption scenarios and explore cross-industry collaborations, particularly in business and tourism sectors[13] - The company plans to expand its sales channels and high-end customer base, with a focus on developing diverse consumption scenarios and cross-industry collaborations[17] - The company is strategically expanding its market presence beyond Jiangxi Province while continuing to enhance its product matrix with more mid-to-high-end offerings[26] - The company aims to support the application for the inclusion of Chinese liquor in the World Cultural Heritage tentative list, collaborating with other leading liquor enterprises[25] - The company is expanding its brand presence internationally, with events in Hong Kong and Japan to promote the Li Du brand[47] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched new product lines in 2024, including the 2013 True Vintage Liquor and Qianli Tiaoyi, enhancing its market penetration in the high-end segment[22] - The company launched upgraded versions of its main product lines, including the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and 1975, and successfully introduced a high-end product, Li Du Sorghum 1308, which won the Grand Gold Medal at the ISGC 2024 International Spirits (China) Awards shortly after its launch[26] - The company has established strategic partnerships with several universities and research institutions to enhance product R&D capabilities, including a strategic cooperation agreement with Guizhou University in 2024[32] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and expanding its mid-range and above product lines to adapt to market demand[61] Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a modern equity incentive plan post-IPO to maximize team effectiveness and has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency[4] - A comprehensive digital management system has been implemented to streamline operations and improve overall profitability through data analysis[38] - The company launched a quality management system in 2024, covering all aspects of production quality, which enhances batch quality management and traceability[39] - The company developed a channel management platform to enhance transparency and efficiency in the distribution process, allowing distributors to manage procurement and inventory effectively[40] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to ESG initiatives, including replacing ceramic bottles with glass bottles to reduce energy consumption and improve sustainability[48] - The company aims for over 50% of its energy consumption to come from renewable sources by 2024, as part of its sustainability initiatives[49] - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind Information and was included in the top 100 ESG best practices list in China[50] - The company is committed to improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption intensity across various resources, contributing to significant cost savings[49] Financial Management - The company has sufficient base liquor inventory to support rapid growth in its mid-range and premium product lines, enhancing competitiveness in the market[33] - The number of distribution partners increased from 2,938 in 2023 to 3,204 in 2024, while retail partners rose from 3,143 to 3,334, indicating a robust expansion of the distribution network[37] - Cash generated from operating activities was approximately RMB 781.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, after adjustments for non-cash and non-operating items[84] - As of December 31, 2024, bank deposits and cash amounted to RMB 6,202.2 million, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023, while bank and other borrowings increased to RMB 510.2 million from RMB 36.6 million[85] Employee and Organizational Structure - The company had 11,380 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase from 10,956 employees as of June 30, 2024[93] - The total employee costs for the year amounted to approximately RMB 2,224.4 million, reflecting the company's investment in workforce development[93] - The product development team consists of 252 employees, with a significant majority holding bachelor's degrees or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 78 renowned liquor experts[30] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring corporate governance compliance[153] - The audit committee has reviewed the audited financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming consistency with the financial statements[148] - The company is registered in the Cayman Islands and was established on September 24, 2021[150] - The company’s shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023[151]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth over the past 15 years, with total sales revenue increasing by 300 times and tax contributions growing by 340 times since its restructuring in 2009 [2]. - The company aims to become a world-class liquor enterprise in the next 50 years, leveraging its strong brand heritage and innovative product offerings [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on dual-channel marketing, targeting both traditional and emerging markets to enhance brand influence among high-net-worth individuals [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,856 million yuan in 2022 to 9,254 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 2,327 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 1,592 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 2,414 million yuan by 2026 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.30 yuan in 2022 to 0.71 yuan in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [1]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.9 in 2022 to 10.6 by 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [1]. Industry Insights - The report notes a turning point in the liquor industry, particularly in the sauce-flavored liquor segment, with a projected reduction in overall production capacity by approximately 100,000 tons in the upcoming production seasons [4][9]. - Despite the overall adjustment in the liquor market, the sauce-flavored liquor segment is expected to continue growing, capturing a larger market share [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it is implied that the company is positioned for potential growth in the future [38]. Core Insights - The sauce liquor industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on brand concentration and market expansion, particularly in the mid to high-end segments [5][6]. - The overall revenue of the sauce liquor industry reached approximately 230 billion yuan in 2023, with profits of around 94 billion yuan, accounting for 30% and 40% of the total liquor industry, respectively [7]. - The company has established a robust channel management system, leveraging a dual-driven model of distribution and group purchasing, which enhances its market presence and operational efficiency [21][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The sauce liquor industry has high entry barriers due to factors such as production cycle length and brand investment, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands [6]. - The demand for sauce liquor has been driven by rising consumer wealth and a shift towards quality consumption since 2016, with brands like Moutai leading the market [7]. Market Dynamics - The market for sauce liquor is expected to continue expanding, with significant growth potential in provinces with high consumption levels, such as Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong [9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of business demand and the maturation of its sales and marketing strategies [17][57]. Financial Analysis - The company's gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase expected in the coming years, while expenses are anticipated to improve gradually as operational efficiencies are realized [45][47]. - The company has implemented a rigorous inventory management system, which allows for better control over stock levels and sales performance [28][60]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to navigate through the current market adjustments effectively, leveraging its strong channel management capabilities to capture market opportunities as demand recovers [57]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity in the sauce liquor sector is projected to reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 kiloliters by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [25].

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。考虑 24H2 起白酒进入产业调整期，中 高档及以上价位带面临压力，下调公司 2024-26 年经调整 EPS 至 0.49 元（前值 0.59 元）、0.52 元（0.73 元）、0.55 元（0.89 元），当 前股价对应 2024 年 12X PE。 Q3 行业降速，公司坚持品质经营。24Q3 及国庆白酒大盘动销平淡， 公司注重结构和盈利，主动放慢渠道进度。其中主品牌珍酒通过升 级、扩产等实现优能优品的战略导向，珍十五再度获得专业赛事认 可并将推出升级后的四代珍十五，品质和知名度的提升有助于推动 消费场景和客群不断扩张；珍三十独立事业部运营后将以流通渠道 开发为目标，推进速度受次高端价位带白酒运行情况影响；高档酒 定位独特、渠道竞争相对较小，预计仍保持较快增长。第二品牌李 渡当前仍处于省内拓价位带、省外做市场阶段，预计延续此前趋势、 增速快于集团整体。 强化品牌力，拔高市场形象。公司致力于品牌培育，体验式营销是 重要抓手，2024 年在品鉴会、回厂游等的基础 ...