Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for Bilibili-W (09626, BILI.US) by 2.6% to HKD 240 and by 2.7% to USD 30.8, maintaining a "Buy" investment rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Bilibili's Q3 performance and management comments during the non-deal roadshow (NDR) reaffirm Goldman Sachs' investment thesis [1] - Revenue forecasts for Bilibili from 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 0%-1%, reflecting better-than-expected advertising and other income [1] - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 5% [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth Potential - Bilibili is maintaining a high-quality content community with strong user engagement [1] - The company is leveraging higher advertising conversion rates and artificial intelligence (AI) technology for traffic monetization [1] - New gaming projects are expected to offer significant growth potential until 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 0.5% on November 17, 2023 [1] - Major ETFs, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), followed the index's downward trend, with leading stocks like Trip.com, Lenovo, Baidu, and BYD Electronics underperforming, while Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, and Alibaba showed gains [1] - A number of technology companies, including Baidu, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Netease, and Xpeng Motors, are set to release their latest financial results this week, with key earnings announcements scheduled for November 17 and 18 [1] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, the recent earnings reports from leading internet companies like Tencent and Bilibili exceeded market expectations, and there is a recommendation to focus on the upcoming financial results from Xiaomi, Trip.com, Kuaishou, and Netease [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook on the revaluation of AI in China, suggesting attention to platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing resources, model capabilities, and application scenarios, such as Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Meituan [1] - As of November 14, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) had a latest valuation (PETTM) of 22.47 times, which is lower than other major global tech indices, indicating that the index remains in a historically undervalued range [2]

Summary of Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili Inc. (BILI) - **Market Cap**: $11.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $8.8 billion - **Industry**: Games, Entertainment & Healthcare Tech Key Points Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: Bilibili's results indicate solid user engagement and advertising strength, maintaining a quality content community with strong user engagement [1][2] - **Revenue Estimates**: Revised revenue estimates for 2025E and 2026E increased by 1% to Rmb 30,162.6 million and Rmb 33,406.2 million respectively [20][21] - **EBITDA Growth**: Projected EBITDA for 2025E is Rmb 4,687.3 million, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6][12] - **EPS Forecast**: Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be Rmb 6.05 in 2025E, up from a loss of Rmb 0.05 in 2024 [12][21] Advertising Growth - **Advertising Revenue**: Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a 28% increase expected in 2025E [22][24] - **eCPM Growth**: The effective cost per mille (eCPM) has shown an upward trajectory, with a 16% year-over-year increase in 3Q25 [3][28] - **Ad Load**: Current ad load is at 7%, with potential for increase as it remains lower than peers [3][28] User Engagement and Community - **User Demographics**: Over 75% of new users are under 22 years old, indicating a strong appeal to younger demographics [27] - **Content Quality**: The community ecosystem supports high-quality user-generated content (UGC), with diversified monetization methods for creators [27][28] - **Traffic Growth**: Bilibili is focusing on video podcasts, contributing to user traffic growth [27] Gaming Strategy - **Upcoming Game Releases**: The planned launch of "Sanguo: Ncard" in 1Q26 is expected to drive gaming revenue growth in 2026E [2][19] - **Seasonality Effects**: The gaming strategy includes seasonal launches, with two planned for 1Q26, which may impact revenue [28] - **Game Selection**: Management emphasized the importance of selecting games that cater to a young audience and have long-term operational potential [26][28] Margin and Capital Allocation - **Operating Margin Target**: Bilibili aims for a mid-term operating margin of 15% to 20%, supported by operating leverage and disciplined cost management [2][28] - **R&D Investment**: Increased R&D expenses are anticipated due to investments in self-developed games and AI initiatives [20][28] Market Position - **Competitive Landscape**: Bilibili's advertising growth is one of the fastest among peers, with a focus on diversifying its revenue streams [2][3] - **Market Share**: Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to reach Rmb 9,939 million in 2025, positioning it favorably within the Chinese media landscape [22][24] Additional Insights - **Management's Confidence**: Management remains optimistic about the company's growth trajectory, particularly in advertising and gaming sectors [1][2] - **Community Engagement**: The emphasis on community and content quality is seen as a key driver for future growth [27][28] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Bilibili's recent conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, advertising growth, user engagement, gaming strategy, and market position.

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili's Q3 total revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, reaching 7.69 billion yuan, aligning with market consensus expectations [1] Revenue Performance - Adjusted operating income for Bilibili was 688 million yuan, surpassing the 272 million yuan from the same period in 2024 and exceeding market expectations by 6% due to effective control of sales and marketing expenses [1] Future Outlook - For Q4, the forecast indicates a continued 5% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily driven by strong advertising business [1] - The company is expected to see a 1 percentage point increase in gross margin quarter-on-quarter due to operational leverage and cost control [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustment - The revenue forecast for Bilibili for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 0% to 3%, reflecting solid advertising performance and better-than-expected results from games like "Escape from Duckkov" [1] Valuation Update - The valuation window has been extended to the fiscal year 2026, with the target price based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method slightly increased from $30 to $31, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a non-typical economic recovery in 2026, driven by confidence rebuilding and policy support, with a potential for profit improvement in the latter half of the year [9][10] - Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of US-China tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving economic benefits, suggesting that 2026 will mark a significant acceleration in reform efforts [9][10] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The report outlines a two-phase bull market strategy, with 2025 characterized as "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and 2026 potentially entering "Bull Market 2.0" with broader market participation [10][11] - It predicts that 2026 will see a rebound in profitability across the A-share market, with expected growth rates of 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 for net profits [10][11] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" is expected to be marked by a shift towards cyclical stocks and a resurgence in technology-driven sectors [10][11] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market outlook for 2026 suggests a low-interest environment with ongoing asset allocation adjustments, although the attractiveness of bond assets may be limited [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of timing in duration strategies, with a focus on credit certainty as a key investment theme [12][13] - Potential risks include a shift towards a more bearish market due to inflationary pressures and fiscal policy changes [12][13] Group 4: Shipping and Shipbuilding Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, driven by rising second-hand ship prices surpassing new build prices, signaling a potential supercycle [20][21] - Historical trends show that improvements in shipping market conditions typically lead to delayed increases in shipbuilding stock prices, suggesting a similar pattern may occur [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil tanker rental rates and their impact on shipbuilding market dynamics [20][21] Group 5: Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable municipal environmental profits, improved cash flows, and adjustments in water pricing, highlighting opportunities in environmental assets [19][21] - The report suggests that the dual carbon goals and AI integration will drive growth in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies involved in waste management and renewable energy [19][21] - The focus on municipal environmental projects is expected to enhance the attractiveness of certain stocks within the sector [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili (Nasdaq: BILI, 09626.HK) continues to show strong performance across multiple business segments, achieving profitability and significant user growth in Q3 2025 [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Bilibili reported total net revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2] - The company achieved a net profit of 469 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 79.8 million yuan in the same period last year, marking a successful turnaround [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 786 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 233% [2] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at 12.101 billion yuan, up 18.07% year-on-year, indicating strong financial health [2] Business Segments - Revenue from value-added services reached 3.02 billion yuan, a 7% increase, driven by growth in paid memberships and other services [2] - Advertising revenue surged to 2.57 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 23%, attributed to improved advertising infrastructure and product offerings [2][3] - Mobile gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan, primarily due to high performance in the previous year from a successful game launch [3] - Revenue from IP derivatives and other businesses grew by 3% to 582 million yuan, maintaining stable growth [3] User Engagement and Community Growth - Bilibili's daily active users reached 117 million, and monthly active users hit 376 million, both setting new historical highs [1][5] - The average daily usage time increased to 112 minutes, reflecting enhanced user engagement [1][5] - The number of monthly paying users grew by 17% year-on-year to 35 million, indicating rising consumer willingness to spend [1] Content Ecosystem - The platform's content ecosystem is thriving, with video playback time for content over five minutes increasing by nearly 20% [5][6] - Game content playback time rose by 22%, solidifying Bilibili's position as a key platform for game publishers [5] - AI-related content saw a nearly 50% increase in playback time, with active AI-related creators reaching nearly 100,000 [6] - New content categories, such as automotive and parenting education, also experienced significant growth in playback time [6] Shareholder Returns - Bilibili has issued over 100 million USD in stock in 2025 and has a board-approved stock buyback plan with approximately 83 million USD remaining [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in advertising revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 23% in Q3 2025, reaching 25.7 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 7.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 233% [6] - The company's monthly active users (MAU) grew by 8% year-on-year to 376 million, while daily active users (DAU) increased by 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user engagement [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 76.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company reported a net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 0.88 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Business Segments - Mobile gaming revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.11 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [7] - The advertising segment's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in sectors such as gaming, e-commerce, and automotive, with AI-related advertising revenue increasing by nearly 90% [8] - Live streaming and value-added services generated 30.23 billion yuan in revenue, a 7% year-on-year increase, with paid user numbers reaching 35 million [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.16 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding adjusted net profit of 2.5 billion yuan [11] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 109.1 billion yuan, with a target price of 259 yuan per share [11]

Aviation Industry - China Southern Airlines' C919 aircraft successfully arrived at Dubai Al Maktoum International Airport on November 14, preparing for the Dubai Airshow from November 17 to 21, 2025. The C919 has received over 1,000 domestic and international orders, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation industry development [1] - Boeing predicts that the Middle East will require 3,000 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at over $500 billion. China's fleet is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.4%, with a projected total of 9,323 jet aircraft by 2043, making it the largest single aviation market globally [1] Animation Industry - Bilibili held an online launch event for 40 domestic animation works for 2025-2026, including new titles and updates on various IP sequels. The return of "The King's Avatar" TV animation and the announcement of "Chinese Folktales 2" set for January 1, 2026, were highlighted [2] - Since 2018, Bilibili has launched over 3,000 domestic creations, with nearly 970 million hours of viewing time in the past year. The platform's user base reached 330 million, with a 104% year-on-year increase in viewing time for domestic content in Q3 [2] Robotics Industry - CITIC Securities reported the completion of the IPO guidance for Yushu Technology Co., which is positioned to strengthen its industry-leading status in humanoid robotics. The company is noted for its continuous technological and product iterations [3][7] - The demand for domestic production of key systems like aviation engines is expected to drive the expansion of the domestic aviation market and upgrade the industry chain [1] Commercial Space Industry - Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket successfully launched on November 13, marking its second flight and the first successful sea recovery of its first stage, making Blue Origin the second company globally to master orbital rocket recovery technology after SpaceX [4] Satellite Internet - The Chinese Academy of Sciences conducted a successful high-rate communication experiment, achieving data transmission rates of 6.0 Gbps in the X-band and 20 Gbps in the Ka-band, indicating significant technological advancements in satellite communication [5] - The satellite communication market is currently valued at approximately 40-50 billion yuan, with projections to exceed 200-400 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10%-28% [5] Quantum Technology - IBM announced significant progress towards achieving quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029, introducing its most advanced quantum processor, "Quantum Nighthawk," expected to be delivered by the end of 2025 [6] - China's "Zuchongzhi 3" superconducting quantum computer has successfully manipulated 105 qubits, becoming the highest-performing superconducting quantum computing prototype globally [6] Physical AI - Yushu Technology's founder emphasized that AI technology will enable robots to truly "understand the world" in the next decade, with their humanoid robots capable of performing most work actions through offline pre-learning and real-time imitation [7] - The emergence of Physical AI aims to enhance autonomous machines' capabilities in real-world physical interactions, bridging the gap between virtual and embodied intelligence [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (9626.HK) [4] Core Insights - Bilibili's Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 7.69 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5%, and adjusted net profit of 790 million RMB, up 233% year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 22% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its strategy of "self-developed quality products and global distribution," with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue: 76.9 billion RMB, gross profit: 28.2 billion RMB, adjusted operating profit: 6.9 billion RMB, adjusted net profit: 7.9 billion RMB [1] - Q3 2025 advertising revenue: 25.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 23%, accounting for 33% of total revenue [3] - Q3 2025 value-added services revenue: 30.2 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7% [3] - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 29.9 billion RMB, 32.7 billion RMB, and 35.9 billion RMB, respectively [5] User Metrics - Q3 2025 daily active users (DAU): 117 million, year-over-year increase of 9%; monthly active users (MAU): 376 million, year-over-year increase of 8% [1] - The number of creators earning revenue reached nearly 2.5 million, with average income per creator increasing by 22% year-over-year [1] Game Development Insights - Mobile game revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.1 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 17% due to high base effects from the previous year [2] - Upcoming game releases include "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" expected in Q1 2026 [2] Advertising and Marketing Trends - The advertising budget is expected to continue increasing, with significant growth in AI and education sector advertising [3] - During the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the number of new customers increased by over 100% year-over-year [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in profit margins. The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 786.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 233%, and the adjusted net profit margin reached 10.2%, up from 3.2% in the same period last year [9] - The advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 2.57 billion, a 23% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by improved advertising product offerings and effectiveness. The company expects to continue gaining market share in the advertising business [3][10] - The company has adjusted its forecast for net profit for 2025-2027, now expecting RMB 2.602 billion, RMB 3.593 billion, and RMB 4.685 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on advertising and gaming revenue [10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 7.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The gross profit was RMB 2.82 billion, with a gross margin of 36.7%, up from 34.9% in Q3 2024 [9] - The company’s mobile game revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 1.51 billion, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [3] - The value-added services revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 3.02 billion, a 7% increase year-on-year, mainly due to growth in paid memberships and other services [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 6.18, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.06 based on the current stock price [1][10] - The forecasted total revenue for 2025 is RMB 30.195 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [1]