Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - On December 22, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The Jiangxi Yichun Mining Project's environmental impact assessment has been publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that the resumption of operations at the Yichun Jiangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities is anticipated to be delayed until the first half of 2026, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]

商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 22 日 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期 兑现 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 109,720 | 5,280 | 13,800 | 18,960 | 10,420 | 38,920 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 33,894 | -3,737 | -13,972 | -63,166 | -1,733,534 | -134,576 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 57,834 | -11,035 | -47,922 | -150,448 | -445,298 | -116,267 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continued to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, was publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities predicts that the resumption of operations at the Jiangxi Zhangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities may be delayed until the first half of 2026 due to the ongoing approval processes, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]

每经AI快讯，港股锂业股早盘继续走高。截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696.HK)涨6.01%，报52.75港元；赣锋 锂业(01772.HK)涨4.65%，报54港元。 ...

锂业股早盘继续走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业（002466）(09696)涨6.01%，报52.75港元；赣锋锂业 （002460）(01772)涨4.65%，报54港元。 消息面上，12月22日早，广期所碳酸锂主力合约再涨近5%，现报115300元/吨。据期货日报，江西省宜 春招标网发布《江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目环境影响评价第一次环评信息公 示》，对宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司的江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目进行第一次 环评信息公示。北京市京师律师事务所矿产资源法律事务部主任曹旭升表示，这是众多办证流程中的正 常审批环节之一，若想正常开采，后续还需办理一系列申请、审查、备案、审批等手续。 华创证券认为，宜春枧下窝锂矿复产进度或低于预期，枧下窝矿采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采 作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，随着环评公示的开展，以及后续审批手续的办理，复产 或将延后至2026年上半年，加剧了当前锂供应紧张的局面，锂价上涨获强势支撑。 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has been publicly disclosed, indicating that further approvals are needed for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that the resumption of operations at the Jiangxi Zhangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The ongoing environmental assessment and subsequent approval processes may delay the resumption of mining until the first half of 2026, exacerbating the current tight lithium supply situation [1] - The increase in lithium prices is strongly supported by the supply constraints in the market [1]

截至9月30日，天齐锂业股东户数31.01万，较上期增加14.52%；人均流通股4759股，较上期减少 12.68%。2025年1月-9月，天齐锂业实现营业收入73.97亿元，同比减少26.50%；归母净利润1.80亿元， 同比增长103.16%。 分红方面，天齐锂业A股上市后累计派现78.68亿元。近三年，累计派现71.37亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，天齐锂业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股6815.91万股，相比上期增加334.16万股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第五大流通股 东，持股2785.36万股，持股数量较上期不变。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第六大流通股东， 持股1758.00万股，相比上期减少81.68万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第七大流通股东，持股 1272.61万股，相比上期减少39.93万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第八大流通股东，持股949.62 万股，相比上期减少12.98万股。南方中证申万有色金属ETF发起联接A（004432）位居第九大流通股 东，持股842.56万股，为新进股 ...

根据2025年12月19日披露数据，狮腾控股（02562）、长飞光纤光缆（06869）、龙蟠科技（02465）港 股通持股占比增加值最大，分别增加3.23%、2.30%、1.42%；大唐新能源（01798）、山东墨龙 （00568）、天齐鋰业（09696）港股通持股占比减少值最大，分别减少-1.10%、-0.85%、-0.77%。 在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，红星美凯龙（01528）、狮腾控股（02562）、南方恆生科技 （03033）港股通持股占比增加值最大，分别增加5.73%、5.03%、3.63%；长飞光纤光缆（06869）、招 商证券（06099）、山东墨龙（00568）港股通持股占比减少值最大，分别减 少-6.95%、-4.28%、-2.73%。 具体数据如下（交易所数据根据T+2日结算）： 1、港股通最新日占比增持榜（前20名） | 公司名称 | 占比值变动 | 最新持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | | 狮腾控股(02562) | +3.23% | 42.11% | | 长飞光纤光缆(06869) | +2.30% | 53.77% | | 龙蟠科技(02465) | +1 ...

Group 1 - China Shenhua announced a merger and acquisition plan exceeding 130 billion yuan, intending to purchase stakes in China Energy Group and Guoyuan Power, along with other equity acquisitions [2][7] - The A-share market is seeing active mergers and acquisitions, with 32 listed companies disclosing restructuring progress this week [2][7] - Former Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB exchange rate against the USD may rise to around 6:1 in the next decade, which could enhance trade balance and economic development [2][7] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt their asset allocation accordingly, with about 19% of industries potentially benefiting from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [2][7] - Shanxi Province has lifted the ban on fireworks, transitioning from a complete ban to scientific restrictions, which may stimulate industry growth and related consumption [3][8] - Seven chief strategists from major brokerages forecast a likely upward trend for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026, driven by technology and overseas expansion [3][8] Group 3 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing positive developments, with Shengxin Lithium Energy signing a framework agreement for lithium salt product supply worth over 20 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [3][8] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project is set to reach an annual capacity of 2.14 million tons, ensuring raw material supply [3][8] - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week, covering tourism, new materials, and optical communication sectors [3][8] Group 4 - Several central banks, including those of Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile, have announced interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices, with silver reaching a historic high of over 67 USD per ounce [4][9][10] - The first L3-level autonomous driving special license plate has been issued to Changan Automobile, marking a shift from technology validation to mass production application [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are tightening, with capital expenditures on copper mines insufficient and frequent supply disruptions expected to lead to a shift from a tight balance to a shortage [4] - The aluminum market is characterized by a slight accumulation of domestic inventory, with prices remaining high due to stable demand and limited supply growth [4] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle as inventory continues to deplete [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply of raw materials, despite some easing of export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 64,000, also above forecasts [8] - The US retail sales for October were flat, and the CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.46% compared to a 0.03% rise in the index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is at 26.64 times, while the PB_LF valuation is at 3.29 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [19] 3. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.36%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.96% [24] - Copper inventories in London decreased by 3.32%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 7.18% [24] 4. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.37%, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.54% [36] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight increase in inventory, with production capacity nearing its limits [4] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 3.33% to 97,650 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 3.91% to 86,280 CNY/ton [78] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand continues to grow [4] 6. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt rose by 0.51% to 24.45 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.93% to 422,000 CNY/ton [90] - The supply of cobalt remains tight, with expectations for continued price increases [4]