金吾财讯 | 小鹏汽车(XPEV)盘前跌超4%，截至发稿，报20.380美元。 金吾财讯 | 小鹏汽车(XPEV)盘前跌超4%，截至发稿，报20.380美元。 中国银河证券发研报指，国家发展改革委、财政部近日发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策的通知。国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿人民币(下同)超长期特别国债支 持消费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 中国银河证券发研报指，国家发展改革委、财政部近日发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策的通知。国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿人民币(下同)超长期特别国债支 持消费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 汽车补贴限制有所提升：补贴上限不变，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴。消费者报废更新，购 买新能源乘用车补贴车价的12%(最高不超过2万元)、购买2.0升及以下排量燃油乘用车补贴车价的10% (最高不超过1.5万元)。消费者置换更新，购买新能源乘用车补贴车价的8%(最高不超过1.5万元)、购买 2.0升及以下排量燃油乘用车补贴车价的6%(最高不超过1. ...

| | 分野 多日 19 5分 159 30分 60分 日 周 月 通停 | F9 盘前盘后 最加 九轮 阅读 工具 () ( > | | 小鹏汽车 | | XPEV | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22,40 | XPEV/小壁汽車109/45 � 20.115 液肤 -1.165(-5.47%) 约价 20.244 域交量 2.4万 ×8交盒额 49万 | 2025/12/31 WindASh 第15名 | | 20.115 | | -1.165 -5.47% | | | | | | NYSE USD 9:45:44 | | ADR 26-22 14 | | 22,200 | | | 4.717 % | 20(9868) | 79350(-0.94%) H/U:- 1.35% | | | | | | | 盘前线 | 20 430 涨幅 ** | -3.99% | | 000722 | | | 1763 | 流时 | 0.850 盘前暨 | 19.03万 | | 21.800 | | | 2,000 | 177 | 20,120 | 625 | ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.2% on Wednesday, indicating a decline in popular Chinese concept stocks [1] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) dropped by 6%, while Li Auto (LI.US) fell by over 4% [1] - Niu Technologies (NIU.US) and New Oriental Education (EDU.US) both experienced declines of over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of power batteries has eased by the end of 2025, but the shortage of energy storage batteries remains severe, leading to increased prices across the lithium battery supply chain [1][3][4]. Group 1: Battery Supply and Demand - Several car manufacturers have experienced delivery delays due to battery supply shortages, particularly affecting models like Li Auto's i6 and NIO's new ES8 [3][15]. - Reports indicate that from September to November 2025, some car companies sent personnel to battery manufacturers to secure battery supplies, highlighting the competitive nature of the market [3][17]. - The demand for power batteries surged during the traditional peak season, exacerbated by the need for manufacturers to stock up before year-end sales and the upcoming tax changes in 2026 [4][18]. Group 2: Energy Storage Battery Market - The energy storage battery market is facing a more severe shortage compared to power batteries, with many companies operating at full capacity and requiring prepayments for orders [5][19]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target for new energy storage installations to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which is expected to drive significant investment [5][19]. - Predictions indicate that global battery demand will exceed 2.5 TWh in 2026, with energy storage demand expected to grow by over 60% year-on-year [5][19]. Group 3: Price Trends in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - The prices of lithium carbonate have surged, with futures exceeding 120,000 yuan per ton, marking a more than 100% increase from July's lows [6][22]. - The entire lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, including key components like anode and cathode materials, separators, and copper foil [6][22]. - Companies are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to rising raw material costs, with some battery manufacturers announcing price hikes for their products [6][23]. Group 4: Company Performance and Strategic Partnerships - CATL's energy storage battery system revenue reached 28.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for nearly 16% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 25.52% [6][21]. - Major automotive companies are increasingly focusing on energy storage as a growth area, with BYD ranking third globally in energy storage system shipments [6][21]. - Strategic partnerships have been established between several car manufacturers and CATL, with agreements lasting up to 10 years to ensure stable supply chains [4][18].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has increased by 1% [1] - Baidu Group has seen a rise of nearly 6% [1] - NIO has surged over 5% [1] - XPeng Motors and WeRide have both increased by over 3% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on globalization, intelligence, and high-end market opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition in the domestic market while witnessing significant growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][3]. - The overall vehicle sales are projected to remain stable in 2026, with a notable increase in NEV sales driven by favorable policies and consumer demand [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end vehicles and intelligent driving technologies as key growth areas for automotive companies [5][14]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Review: Intensified Domestic Competition, High Growth in NEV Exports - Total vehicle sales in China for January to November 2025 reached 20.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% in retail and 11.2% in wholesale [2]. - Domestic sales showed slight growth, heavily influenced by policy changes, while exports surged, particularly in the NEV segment, which saw a 19% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The NEV penetration rate reached 40.8% in exports, with significant contributions from plug-in hybrid vehicles [19]. 2. 2026 Outlook: Stability Expected, Acceleration in Globalization and Intelligence - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are expected to reach 22.03 million units in 2026, with NEVs projected to grow by 12% year-on-year [3][4]. - The high-end vehicle segment is anticipated to perform better due to a shift in consumer preferences and the increasing market share of domestic brands [4]. - NEV exports are expected to reach 6.73 million units, with a 34% increase in NEV exports alone, driven by improved product quality and market maturity [4]. 3. Investment Strategy: Favorable Opportunities in Globalization, Intelligence, and High-End Markets - The report highlights the potential for automotive companies that excel in international markets, high-end product offerings, and advanced intelligent driving technologies [5][13]. - Companies like BYD, Geely, and Li Auto are identified as key players likely to benefit from these trends due to their strong export capabilities and innovative products [5][13]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the AI driving sector, predicting that leading companies will leverage their technological advancements to gain competitive advantages [14][15].

Core Insights - The Chinese intelligent driving industry is experiencing both expansion and contraction, with rapid adoption of assisted driving features in mass-produced vehicles, while financing for some companies is slowing down, leading to exits from mainstream competition [1][2] - The competition in the intelligent driving sector has shifted towards large-scale delivery, cost efficiency, and long-term service capabilities, with opportunities concentrating on a few companies that can prove their value [2][4] - The industry is entering a mature phase, as evidenced by significant orders from conservative automakers like Toyota, indicating a shift from vague to definite market demand [5][6] Industry Dynamics - The competition is no longer about validating technology but about scaling delivery and maintaining cost efficiency, with survival becoming a pressing issue for mid-tier companies [2][4] - The leading companies in the assisted driving sector include Horizon, ZhiYu, Huawei, and Momenta, which have successfully transitioned from technology validation to large-scale delivery [4][5] - The gap between leading companies and newcomers is estimated to be 3 to 5 years, primarily due to data accumulation advantages and algorithm iteration capabilities [4][5] Market Trends - The assisted driving market is seeing a push towards lower-cost models, with major players like Horizon and Momenta targeting vehicles priced under 100,000 yuan, which account for nearly half of China's passenger car sales [8][9] - The competition is intensifying around cost control, as companies strive to keep the cost of assisted driving features within 3% to 5% of the vehicle's price to ensure market acceptance [9][10] - The trend towards self-developed chips is debated, with some companies believing it can lead to differentiation and lower system costs, while others see it as economically challenging [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The intelligent driving sector is unlikely to see a "winner-takes-all" scenario until the L4 or L5 stages of automation, as the current market remains fragmented with multiple strong players [8][11] - Companies that can continuously iterate, validate their solutions through mass production, and respond to market demands will be the ones to secure future growth [11] - The supply chain strategies of automakers suggest that the assisted driving market will not favor a single dominant player, as diverse needs for customization and differentiation persist [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Technology Index achieved a remarkable annual increase of 23.45% in 2025, marking its best performance since 2020, with 22 out of 30 constituent stocks rising [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Among the 30 constituent stocks, notable performers included Hua Hong Semiconductor, which surged by 243.19%, Horizon Robotics with a rise of 140.56%, and SMIC increasing by 124.69% [1] - Other significant gainers were JD Health at 97.51%, Alibaba-W at 77.50%, Xpeng Motors-W at 70.10%, Baidu Group-SW at 59.01%, and Tencent Music-SW at 58.44% [1][2] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The first tier of investment preference is in semiconductor manufacturing (Hua Hong, SMIC) and core AI chips (Horizon Robotics), reflecting a strong focus on hard technology and domestic substitution logic [1] - The second tier includes growth sectors such as smart electric vehicles (Xpeng, Li Auto), AI applications (Baidu, SenseTime), and digital health (JD Health), which benefit from industry trends but still face competitive and profitability uncertainties [1] - The third tier consists of value recovery in platform internet giants (Alibaba, Tencent) and mature applications (NetEase, Kuaishou, Tencent Music), with gains primarily driven by profit realization and value reassessment through dividends and buybacks, categorized as "high-quality mature assets" [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of stock recommendations from various brokerages, with 10 brokerages achieving over 50% returns in 2025, showcasing their ability to identify and recommend stocks early in the market cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Brokerage Performance - The highest cumulative return was achieved by Guoyuan Securities at 83.73%, followed by Northeast Securities and Kaiyuan Securities with returns of 67.47% and 67% respectively [2]. - Other brokerages such as Dongxing Securities, Huaxin Securities, and China Merchants Securities also reported returns exceeding 60%, while Everbright Securities, Dongguan Securities, Guotai Junan, and Changcheng Securities had returns above 50% [2]. Group 2: Stock Selection Strategy - The success of these brokerages is attributed to their strategy of identifying stocks at low points and consistently recommending them, which has led to significant gains [4][5]. - For instance, Kaiyuan Securities recommended Xinyisheng for four consecutive months, resulting in a total increase of 440% from May to August [6]. Group 3: Popular Stocks - Tencent Holdings emerged as the most recommended stock, being favored by around seven brokerages each month, making it the most popular stock of the year [7]. - The report indicates that the most popular stocks varied throughout the year, with technology stocks dominating in the first quarter, consumer stocks in the second, financial stocks in the third, and a return to technology stocks in the fourth quarter [7].

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced a new policy to support the automotive industry through a large-scale vehicle replacement and trade-in program set to be implemented in 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles [1][2] - The subsidy for scrapping a vehicle includes 12% of the purchase price (up to 20,000 yuan) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [1] - For vehicle trade-ins, the subsidy is 8% (up to 15,000 yuan) for new energy vehicles and 6% (up to 13,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the trade-in program, aiming to stimulate consumer demand during peak seasons [2] - From January to November this year, the trade-in program has generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people, with over 11.2 million vehicles traded in, accounting for over one-third of total vehicle sales [2] - The automotive market is expected to see positive growth in early 2026, driven by the continuation of supportive policies and a favorable economic environment [3] Group 3 - The automotive market in China is experiencing significant growth, with production and sales of passenger vehicles reaching 27.4 million and 27.3 million units respectively from January to November 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 12% and 11.5% [2] - Chinese automakers are gaining global market share, with BYD ranking 6th, Geely 8th, and Chery 10th among the world's top 10 automakers [2] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification, with some international brands losing market share while Chinese brands continue to thrive [2] Group 4 - BYD reported a production of approximately 4.12 million new energy vehicles from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.29%, with sales of about 4.18 million units, up 11.3% [4] - Geely's total vehicle sales for the first 11 months reached 2.79 million units, a 42% increase year-on-year, with November sales of 310,400 units, up about 24% [4] - NIO delivered 277,900 vehicles in the first 11 months, a 45.6% increase year-on-year, with November deliveries of 36,300 units, up 76.3% [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved cumulative deliveries of 391,900 vehicles in the first 11 months, a 156% year-on-year increase, with November deliveries of 36,700 units, up 19% [5]