Core Insights - Morgan Stanley projects New Oriental (EDU.US, 09901) to achieve a 13% year-over-year growth in core revenue (in USD) for Q4 2025, with core operating profit margin (OPM) expected to increase by over 1 percentage point, aligning with management guidance [1] - The upcoming shareholder return plan may act as a short-term catalyst, with a target price set at $48, corresponding to a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 16 times for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting a reasonable valuation considering a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings from 2026 to 2029 [1] Q4 2025 Outlook - Management maintains guidance for core revenue growth of 13% year-over-year in USD, or 15% in RMB, with overseas revenue up 8%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 9%, high school business revenue up 16-17%, and new business revenue up 32-35% [1] - Core operating profit margin is expected to increase by over 1 percentage point due to low base effects and cost control measures [1] FY 2026 Outlook - Management reiterates guidance for core revenue growth of 14-15% year-over-year in RMB, with overseas revenue projected to grow 0-5%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 10%, high school business revenue up 11-13%, new business revenue up 25-30%, and tourism business revenue up 15-20% [2] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow by 12%, with core operating profit margin expected to expand due to strict cost control [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit is projected at $581 million (operating margin of 10.7%) and non-GAAP net profit at $509 million (net margin of 9.3%) [2] Shareholder Return Expectations - It is anticipated that New Oriental will announce a regular shareholder return plan no later than the performance report for Q4 2025, with flexibility between cash dividends and stock buybacks [2] AI One-on-One Teaching Application - Revenue from the AI one-on-one teaching application will be included in the "Smart Books" category of K9 new business, set to launch on July 2 in New Oriental's live store, with pricing yet to be announced [2]

Group 1 - Beijing's 2025 college admission minimum control scores have been announced, with the ordinary undergraduate score set at 430 points and special type admissions at 519 points [1] - The distribution of scores for the 2025 college entrance examination in Beijing shows that 113 students scored above 698 points, while 11,883 students scored above 600 points [2] - A technology company in Beijing is under investigation for illegal advertising related to "college volunteer planning teacher" fast-track training, misleading potential students about job prospects [3] Group 2 - BOSS Zhipin plans to raise approximately HKD 22.613 billion through an IPO in Hong Kong, offering up to 30 million new shares at a price range of HKD 78 per share [4] - Sheng Tong Co. announced the cancellation of repurchased shares, reducing its registered capital from 538 million yuan to 533 million yuan, following the expiration of unused repurchased shares [5] - Keda Xunfei has updated its AI learning machine with three core functions and introduced a new self-developed curriculum system, enhancing its educational offerings [6] - New Oriental has established a new intelligent technology company, focusing on AI application software development and educational consulting services [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that New Oriental's revenue for Q4 FY25 is expected to be $1.186 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [1] - The education business, including cultural tourism, is projected to generate $1.034 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - Other businesses, primarily Oriental Selection, are expected to see revenue decline to $152 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The study anticipates that the overseas examination training and consulting business will generate $298 million in revenue for Q4 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%, but a slowdown compared to previous periods [1] - The company is adjusting its high-end one-on-one training model to a one-to-many format to lower class prices and is expanding its youth overseas examination training services to enhance growth resilience [1] Group 3 - New business revenue, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, is expected to grow by 34% year-on-year to $311 million in Q4 [2] - The number of teaching outlets is projected to increase to 1,251, a year-on-year growth of 22%, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The company is implementing cost control measures and operational efficiency improvements, leading to an expected Non-GAAP operating profit margin expansion to 3% in Q4 [2] Group 4 - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly adjusted downwards to $4.84 billion, $5.8 billion, and $7.03 billion, respectively, due to slower growth in the overseas study business [3] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY25-FY27 have been revised upwards to $467 million, $575 million, and $710 million, respectively, reflecting improved cost control [3] - The DCF target price has been raised to $76.3, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.1 for FY25 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's education business is expected to see a recovery in profit margins, and regular share buybacks may enhance its valuation [2][8] - The projected revenue for Q4 FY25 is $1.186 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with the education segment (including cultural tourism) contributing $1.034 billion, a 13.3% increase [5] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $51 million, a 39.2% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.3%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points [5][7] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a slowdown in the growth of the study abroad business, projecting a revenue of $298 million for Q4 FY25, a 5% increase, which is a deceleration of 12.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 34% year-on-year to $311 million in Q4 [6] - The company is expected to improve its Non-GAAP operating profit margin to 3% in Q4, reversing the decline seen in Q3 [7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY25 to FY27 have been slightly adjusted to $4.84 billion, $5.8 billion, and $7.03 billion respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY25 to FY27 have been raised to $467 million, $575 million, and $710 million respectively [8] - The DCF target price has been increased to $76.3, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.1 for FY25 [8]

Group 1: Fusion Industry Insights - The high-temperature superconducting material company Shanghai Superconductor has received approval for its IPO, indicating that China's technology in high-temperature superconducting tape is nearing or has reached international standards, with continuous capacity expansion [11] - The company aims to raise 1.2 billion yuan to build a second-generation high-temperature superconducting tape production facility, which is expected to add 6,000 kilometers of production capacity annually once fully operational [11] - Investment from China National Petroleum Corporation into Kunlun Capital for fusion projects highlights the financial backing for the fusion industry [11] Group 2: New Oriental Education Performance Forecast - New Oriental is expected to report revenue of $1.186 billion for Q4 FY25, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with the education segment (including cultural tourism) projected to generate $1.034 billion, up 13.3% [12] - The company anticipates a Non-GAAP net profit of $51 million, reflecting a 39.2% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.3%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points [12] - The growth of the study abroad business is slowing, with a forecasted revenue of $298 million for overseas exam training and consulting, representing a 5% increase, which is a slowdown compared to previous periods [12][13] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - New Oriental has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 to $4.84 billion, $5.7 billion, and $7.03 billion, respectively, due to the slowdown in study abroad business growth [13] - The company has increased its Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period to $467 million, $575 million, and $710 million, respectively, due to cost control measures and improved operational efficiency [13] - The DCF target price has been raised to $76.3, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.1 for FY25, indicating a positive outlook for the company's market valuation [13]

The second trading day of the week was a good one for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU 13.07%) shareholders. On the back of an analyst's recommendation upgrade, their stock surged more than 13% higher in price. That absolutely crushed the S&P 500's (^GSPC 1.11%) 1.1% increase.Inexpensive and attractive, says prognosticatorThat move was made by J.P. Morgan, in the person of analyst DS Kim. That morning, Kim changed his recommendation on New Oriental to overweight (buy, in other words) from his ...

Group 1 - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially rose by 0.8% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains: Li Auto up 8.1%, New Oriental up 5.3%, Xpeng up 4.5%, Yum China and Xiaomi both up over 2%, NetEase up 1.3% [1] - Other notable stocks like Pinduoduo, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, and Alibaba rose by up to 0.8%, while WeRide fell by 0.5% and Pony.ai dropped by 3.9% [1] Group 2 - Chinese concept ETFs performed well, with YINN rising by 4%, DRAG and CQQQ up over 1.2%, and KWEB increasing by 1% [1]

Core Insights - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of June 20, 2025, highlighting their respective valuations in billions of dollars [1]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Rankings - The top three companies by market capitalization are: 1. Alibaba: $1,000.00 billion 2. Tencent: $900.00 billion 3. Baidu: $290.62 billion [3][4]. - Other notable companies in the top 10 include: - Kuaishou: $308.94 billion - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC): $403.59 billion - JD.com: $459.34 billion [3][4]. Group 2: Additional Rankings - Companies ranked from 11 to 20 include: - Ideal Automotive: $282.81 billion - Beike: $217.69 billion - Xpeng Motors: $177.13 billion [3][4]. - The rankings continue with companies like: - New Oriental: $76.78 billion - Vipshop: $75.79 billion - Kingsoft: $70.42 billion [4][5]. Group 3: Valuation Trends - The article indicates a competitive landscape among Chinese tech firms, with significant valuations reflecting their market positions and growth potential [1]. - The data is based on the latest exchange rates, converting values from Hong Kong dollars to US dollars [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the education sector [2] Core Insights - The education industry has two core functions: academic advancement and employment, leading to various sub-sectors. K12 education is characterized as a long-term growth sector with strong underlying demand and a long user lifecycle [3] - The K12 education market has previously reached valuations exceeding 1 trillion RMB, with leading companies like TAL Education, New Oriental, and Gaotu achieving peak market caps of 349.3 billion, 235 billion, and 217.8 billion RMB respectively [3] - The report highlights that the education sector is currently in a recovery phase post "Double Reduction" policy and pandemic, with structural investment opportunities still present [3] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Favorable policies such as birth subsidies are expected to improve education consumption expectations, while K12 education is undergoing normalized regulation [6] - The population trend indicates a decline in the number of elementary school students starting in 2024 due to decreasing birth rates, although the demand for high school education remains strong [11][13] - There is a persistent strong desire for higher education, with the expansion of ordinary undergraduate degrees continuing [17][18] Market Performance - From January 1 to June 12, 2025, the education sector index rose by 5.04%, outperforming the broader market by 5.50 percentage points [24] - The report notes significant stock performance differentiation within the sector, with companies like China Oriental Education leading in vocational training due to a reassessment of blue-collar skill training value [30] Sub-sector Analysis - K12 Education: The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for K12 education despite regulatory challenges, with a focus on high-quality educational institutions benefiting from favorable demographic trends [30] - Vocational Education: The demand for vocational skills training is expected to grow, particularly as the labor market evolves [30] - AI in Education: The report highlights the rapid development and integration of AI in educational products, with traditional education companies accelerating their AI product offerings [22][24]

金十图示：2025年06月11日（周三）中国科技互联网公司市值排名TOP 50一览 | 排名 | 公司 | 市值(亿美元) | 排名变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 台棋电 | 11019.29 | | | 2 | 拼多多 | 1453.58 | | | 3 | 科大讯飞 | 155.41 | 14 1 | | 4 | 新东方 | 79.51 | 19 4 | | 5 | 恒生电子 | 69.79 | 20 1 | | 6 | 卫宁健康 | 29.45 | 57 1 | | 7 | 拉卡拉 | 25.78 | 60 1 | | 8 | | 朗新集团 | 23.67 | 68 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | e Hualu | 易华录 | 21.81 | 74 ↑ | | 10 | PNG | 掌趣科技 | 20.47 | 82 1 | | II | PNG | 新华网 | 16.93 | 92 ↑ | | 12 | PNG | 贵广网络 | 14.69 | 116 1 | | 13 | PNG | 创业慧康 | 11. ...