Core Insights - Greentown Management Holdings Limited, known as the "first stock in construction agency," reported a revenue of 3.441 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The company's gross profit was 1.706 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, Greentown Management has established construction agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China [2] - The total contracted project area reached 12.56 million square meters, an increase of 5.0% from the previous year [2] - The area under construction was 53.96 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects was 720.1 billion yuan, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Commercial construction agency services were the largest source of revenue and profit for Greentown Management, generating 2.753 billion yuan, a rise of 17.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - Government construction agency revenue reached 626 million yuan, making up 18.2% of total revenue [2] New Project Development - In 2024, Greentown Management expanded its new project contracted area to 36.5 million square meters, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4% compared to 2023 [3] - The estimated construction fees for new projects were 9.32 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The company noted that despite a 5% decline in new contract area across the construction agency industry, it managed to maintain positive growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that private enterprises are gradually regaining confidence in the real estate market, as evidenced by a 10% increase in land acquisition share over the past three years and the initiation of over nine major projects in the construction service sector [1][4][8] - In the recent land auction, private real estate companies have shown a strong presence, with local firm Dongyu Development acquiring residential land in the Leiliu East Expansion Area, indicating a trend of private enterprises returning to the market [1][4] - The data shows that from 2022 to 2024, the number of land acquisitions by private enterprises in the city has increased significantly, contributing to the innovation of residential products in Foshan [1][4] Group 2 - The private sector is not only active in land acquisition but is also making strides in the emerging construction service sector, with seven out of nine recent projects being awarded to private firms, highlighting their dominance in this area [4][5] - Green City Management has emerged as the leading company in terms of the number of projects won in the construction service sector, reflecting the growing trend of private enterprises engaging in this business model [4][5] - The construction service model is seen as a light-asset development approach that helps private firms mitigate market cycle pressures, with a net profit margin of over 25% compared to the traditional real estate development model's average gross profit margin of around 10% [5][8] Group 3 - The real estate market in Foshan is showing signs of recovery, with a peak in transactions in March that surpassed last year's "golden September" levels, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [8][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17% increase in land supply in Foshan, with high-quality land parcels being made available, which could lead to the development of high-premium products [8][11] - Current real estate policies are favorable, with adjustments in down payment ratios and public housing loan policies, creating a conducive environment for market growth [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Management maintains its leading position in the industry with strong performance in new project expansion, total order reserves, delivery scale, and construction income, while optimizing its order structure to enhance risk resilience [1][3]. Group 1: Project Expansion and Order Structure - In 2024, Greentown Management's newly expanded construction projects totaled 36.49 million square meters, a slight increase of 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a significant lead over the second-largest competitor by 2.3 times [3][6]. - The order structure has shifted, with private enterprises becoming the largest client group for the first time, accounting for 33.2% of new projects, a year-on-year increase of 7.9 percentage points [10][7]. - The total area under management reached 125.6 million square meters, with a 5% year-on-year increase, and the company has a solid order reserve of 932.1 billion yuan [15][17]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Greentown Management achieved a revenue of 3.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.21%, primarily driven by commercial construction income [4][26]. - The net profit for 2024 was 791 million yuan, a decline of 19.4% year-on-year, reflecting increased competition and challenges in profitability [4][31]. - The overall gross profit margin decreased to 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to a significant drop in the gross margin of government construction projects [28][4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company has implemented various reforms leading to a 7.6% reduction in sales and management expenses, while the per capita construction output value increased to 840,000 yuan per person [3][21]. - The delivery scale for 2024 reached 16.56 million square meters, a 3% increase year-on-year, maintaining the top position in the industry [21][4]. - The liquidity ratio improved to 1.68, indicating a recovery in short-term solvency, despite a decrease from the previous year [33][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93.2 亿 元（-10.1%），新拓单价 255 元/平方米（-13.1%）。虽然新拓金额、单价下 滑，但公司 2024 年新签市占率 22.1%，继续保持代建市场龙 ...

1、一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 | ◎ 克而瑞研究中心 | | --- | | PART1 榜单发布 | 新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 0 2 2、新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 3、超过半数企业新拓面积同比增长，呈现"头部稳健、腰部发力"格局 4、品牌传播力保持强者恒强，AI、科技赋能代建业务成各家企业突破口 一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 0 1 PART2 榜单解读 2025年一季度，代建新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面4534万平方米，同比增加6%，较2024年全行业17% 的增速进一步放缓，竞争仍十分激烈，代建项目获取难度不断增加。 按一季度新增建面分布来看，绿城管理仍然以"断层"优势保持龙头地位，一季度新拓面积几乎是第二名2 倍。有3家企业新增建面超过300万平方米，分别是旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团，基本以政府代建项目 新拓为主，其中旭辉建管一季度政府代建比例达到56%，润地管理政府新签规模约301万平方米。另，有6 家房企新增建面位于200-300万区间，包括 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 18% to 800 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and credit impairment provisions of approximately 100 million yuan [1][3][9] - The company has seen a 17% increase in commercial construction revenue, which now accounts for 80% of total revenue, while government construction revenue has decreased by 21% [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, with commercial and government construction margins at 51% and 40%, respectively [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18% [1][3][4] - The gross margin is projected to be 49.6%, with a decrease in both commercial and government construction margins [1][9] Market Position and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operates in 130 cities with a total contracted construction area of 130 million square meters, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][13] - The new signed construction area for 2024 is 36.49 million square meters, with a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Due to the shrinking demand for government construction and increased competition in the construction industry, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 3.6 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, and 800 million yuan for both years, respectively [3][18] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.7 and 6.5 times [3][18]

作为"代建第一股"，绿城管理保持着行业龙头位置。 根据绿城管理发布的业绩报告，2024年，其继续保持房地产代建服务领域行业第一，代建行业市占率22.1%，较2023年进一步提升1.7个百分点，连续9年 保持20%以上的代建行业市占率。 营收小幅增长，多项盈利指标下滑 作为代建行业当之无愧的"一哥"，绿城管理2024年的成绩单可谓喜忧参半。 2024年，绿城管理实现收入34.41亿元，较上年同期33.02亿元增长了4.2%；毛利为17.06亿元，同比下降1.0%。 看似稳健增长，实则暗藏隐忧。在盈利方面，绿城管理年内利润7.91亿元，同比下降了19.40%；归属于公司拥有人的净利润为8.01亿元，同比下降 17.7%。这组数据也体现了绿城管理"增收不增利"的尴尬。 细看这份成绩单，轻资产模式依然是绿城管理的"护城河"。49.6%的综合毛利率虽然较上年下滑2.6个百分点，但仍远远高于开发板块。 但问题在于，这条护城河正在遭遇"价格战"的冲击。拆解绿城管理的收入结构，商业代建依然是该公司最大的收入和利润来源，2024年的收入约27.52亿 元，占总收入比例80%，同比增加17.3%。不过，来自政府代建收入约6.26 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, with a focus on financially stable and well-performing leading companies [2]. Core Views - Recent government policies have been implemented to support the real estate market, including the cancellation of sales restrictions in Nanjing and adjustments to down payment ratios in Tianjin, which are expected to stimulate demand [7][17]. - The real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales show slight resilience [7][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Mixc Life [7][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.37%, indicating that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.47% [3][13]. - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,034.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 995.5 billion yuan [8]. Industry Fundamentals Primary Market Analysis - In the week of March 28 to April 3, a total of 31,221 new homes were sold across 38 key cities, representing a year-on-year decline of 33.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [5][21]. - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.821 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9% [5][21]. Secondary Market Analysis - During the same week, 22,398 second-hand homes were sold in 16 key cities, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [32]. - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 2.178 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% [32]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.291 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a depletion cycle of 156.6 weeks [45][52]. Land Market Analysis - In the week of March 24 to March 30, land supply reached 21.186 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the average supply price was 2,715 yuan per square meter, up 223.2% year-on-year [53]. - Land transactions totaled 23.359 million square meters, with a transaction amount of 62.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.4% [53].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction management industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the top 30 companies showing a total contracted area of 914 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23% [1][10] - The top 30 construction management companies added a new signed area of 19.3 million square meters, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has decreased by 20 percentage points compared to 2023 [12] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable performance among leading companies, with the top three being Greentown Management, Blue City Group, and Jindi Management [7][8] Summary by Sections Ranking Release - The report lists the top 30 construction management companies in China, highlighting their rankings and names [2][3] Ranking Interpretation - The top companies exhibit stable performance, with Greentown Management maintaining a market share of over 20% since 2016, while Blue City Group and Jindi Management also show strong competitive advantages [7] - New entrants in the market are rapidly expanding, with companies like Xuhui Construction Management and Longfor Longzhizao emerging as significant players [8][9] - Private enterprises dominate the top 30 list, accounting for 63%, while state-owned enterprises and mixed ownership companies make up 17% and 20%, respectively [9] Market Data - The total contracted area for the top 30 companies reached 914 million square meters, with nine companies experiencing over 50% growth in their contracted scale [10] - The concentration of new contracts remains high, with the top five companies accounting for 46% of the total contracted area and new contracts [12] Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified competition, prompting companies to adopt strategic transformations and innovations to adapt to market changes [17] - Many companies are extending their service chains to offer comprehensive service models, while diversifying their business areas beyond traditional residential construction [17][18]