Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Following the downgrade, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% on September 15, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion HKD, and its total market capitalization dropping below 350 billion HKD [1] - As of the report, Pop Mart's stock price was 259.2 HKD per share, reflecting a decline of over 6% [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential decline of Pop Mart's product craze, particularly with the fluctuating prices of its flagship product, Labubu, in the secondary market [3] - The average transaction price for Labubu has shown a downward trend, with more sellers expressing bearish sentiment [3] Group 3: Product Sales and Consumer Interest - The recent launch of the SKULLPANDA new product series saw minimal consumer interest, with only 10 people queuing for the release, contrasting sharply with previous launches that attracted thousands [6] - Sales data from Pop Mart's official flagship store indicated a volatile sales pattern for the new blind boxes, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 shortly after, likely due to high return rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan warns that Pop Mart's stock, which surged over 200% this year, has reached "perfect valuation," leading to a significant decline in entry price attractiveness and a rapidly deteriorating risk-reward ratio [1][3]. Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock dropped significantly, hitting a low of 252 HKD per share, the lowest since August 5, and down over 25% from its previous record high [1]. - Year-to-date, Pop Mart's stock has surged 209%, and over the past year, it has increased by 466%, far exceeding the Hang Seng Index's gains of 32% and 52% during the same period [3][6]. Rating and Target Price Adjustment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from 400 HKD to 300 HKD [4][6]. - The downgrade reflects concerns that the stock price has risen too quickly and too high, resulting in short-term risks outweighing potential returns [5]. Valuation Model Changes - The PEG ratio used by JPMorgan was adjusted from 1.5 to 1.1, indicating an increased focus on risk considerations at current high valuations [7]. Catalysts and Market Sentiment - Four out of seven previously identified catalysts for Pop Mart's stock performance have been realized, including strong performance reports and successful collaborations [8]. - However, three potential catalysts remain uncertain, including the release of the "Labubu & Friends" animation and new product launches [9][10]. Core IP and Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding the sustainability of the core IP Labubu's popularity have arisen due to declining resale prices in the secondary market, attributed to rapid production capacity expansion rather than a decline in IP popularity [11][12]. - The resale price of Labubu 3.0 in China dropped from a peak of 2284 RMB to 687 RMB, a decline of 70%, yet still maintains a 15% premium over retail price [12]. Long-term Investment Logic - Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan does not recommend "Underweight" and maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for Pop Mart, citing three key pillars: strong IP commercialization capabilities, a diversified IP portfolio, and successful global expansion [15][16][17]. - The company is recognized for its management quality and execution capabilities, ranking alongside top consumer goods companies in China [18].

港股泡泡玛特盘初跳水一度跌超8%，成交额超15亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The narrative of "Chinese manufacturing" is evolving into "Chinese brands," indicating a shift in international competitiveness and brand perception [1][3][10] - Chinese brands are increasingly recognized for quality and innovation, moving from low-cost products to high-end offerings in global markets [3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Chinese brands are experiencing a diversified and clustered ecosystem in international markets, with rising overseas revenue and improved profit margins [1][4] - In 2024, China led the world in generative AI patent applications, and cross-border e-commerce reached 2.63 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8% [1] - The number of Chinese companies participating in the IFA 2025 Berlin International Consumer Electronics Show reached approximately 764, accounting for about 38% of exhibitors [3] Group 2: Brand Performance - Pop Mart's LABUBU IP saw significant success, with a revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year, and overseas sales contributing nearly 40% of total revenue [4] - Chinese brands dominate the high-end market, particularly in products priced over $500, with significant pricing power in flagship categories above $800 [5] Group 3: Challenges in Brand Expansion - Companies face challenges in efficient budget allocation and effective marketing strategies, as traditional advertising methods are becoming less effective [6] - Localization remains a critical issue, with many brands focusing on sales volume rather than building brand narratives and understanding local cultures [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Consumer trust is shifting from price to innovation, with 89% of consumers trusting personal recommendations over advertisements [8] - The purchasing journey has become more complex, requiring brands to establish trust through local partnerships and community engagement [8][9] Group 5: Future Directions - The next phase for Chinese brands will involve building a cooperative network based on cultural resonance and value co-creation [10] - Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of strategic partnerships to enhance brand credibility and market penetration [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart experienced a significant drop, falling over 8% in early trading, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion HKD, and its total market capitalization has fallen below 350 billion HKD. Despite this, the stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 180% this year [1]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley analyst Kevin Yin downgraded Pop Mart International Group's rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," setting a target price of 300 HKD, which represents an 8.4% increase from the last quoted price [1]. - There are concerns in the market regarding the rational return of interest in Pop Mart's IP, especially following the recent launch of its gold series products [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Southbound funds have been consistently net selling Pop Mart, with a record net sell of 1.721 billion HKD on September 10, marking the highest historical outflow [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, with a drop of over 7% as of the latest report, prompting Morgan Stanley to downgrade its rating to neutral [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock initially fell sharply, with a decline reaching 8% at one point [1]. - As of the latest update, the stock price was reported at 257.400 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 19.400 HKD or 7.01% [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its rating for Pop Mart's stock to neutral, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the company [1].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月15日，港股泡泡玛特盘初跌超8%，摩根大通已将其对泡泡玛特股票的评级下调至中 性。 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down by 0.3% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.11% [1] - Pop Mart opened nearly 3% lower [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.04%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.16%, and China Shenhua (01088) at 67.97% [1] - Alibaba-W (09988), Horizon Robotics-W (09660), and Ping An of China (02318) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +14.898 billion, +1.834 billion, and +1.420 billion respectively [1] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include Pop Mart (09992) with a decrease of -2.561 billion, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with -2.531 billion, and Kangfang Biotech (09926) with -0.911 billion [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 72.04% with 10 billion shares [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.16% with 280 million shares [1] - China Shenhua (01088) has a holding ratio of 67.97% with 2.296 billion shares [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) increased its holdings by +14.898 billion, adding 98.598 million shares [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) increased its holdings by +1.834 billion, adding 17.948 million shares [1] - Ping An of China (02318) increased its holdings by +1.420 billion, adding 24.8703 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Pop Mart (09992) decreased its holdings by -2.561 billion, reducing 9.2515 million shares [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) decreased its holdings by -2.531 billion, reducing 45.9018 million shares [2] - Kangfang Biotech (09926) decreased its holdings by -0.911 billion, reducing 6.7244 million shares [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant investor sentiment and potential market movements [1][2][3] Short Selling Ratios - The top three stocks with the highest short-selling ratios are New World Development-R (80016) and Li Ning-R (82331) at 100.00%, followed by AIA Group-R (81299) at 92.90% [1][2] - Other notable stocks include BYD Company-R (81211) at 91.45% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation-R (80883) at 71.40% [2] Short Selling Amounts - Alibaba-SW (09988) leads in short-selling amount with 5.602 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings (00700) at 2.725 billion and Baidu Group-SW (09888) at 2.062 billion [3] - Other significant amounts include Meituan-W (03690) at 1.088 billion and Pop Mart International (09992) at 879 million [3] Deviation Values - Li Ning-R (82331) has the highest deviation value at 35.57%, followed by AIA Group-R (81299) at 28.24% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation-R (80883) at 27.47% [1][3] - Other notable deviation values include BYD Company-R (81211) at 25.22% and New World Development-R (80016) at 24.06% [3]