Group 1 - The popularity of Labubu and Dimoo in Thailand has led to significant demand, with reports of reselling at two to three times the original price during shortages, and limited editions reaching around 3000 RMB [1] - The trend of sharing unboxing videos on TikTok among Thai youth highlights the cultural impact and status associated with these collectible toys [1] - Bubble Mart plans to open a store in Central World, Bangkok, in the summer of 2025, indicating strong local interest, as evidenced by long queues for exclusive Thai editions [1] Group 2 - Labubu and Dimoo are recognized as "friendship ambassadors" between China and Thailand, with Dimoo receiving an honorary title for the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [2] - Bubble Mart's financial performance shows remarkable growth, with overall revenue increasing by 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3, and overseas revenue soaring by 365%-370% [2]

Core Insights - The annual words "Rage bait" and "brain rot" reflect how digital platforms reshape thoughts and behaviors, highlighting the significant role of emotions in driving interactions and commercial outcomes [1] - The concept of "emotional value" has gained prominence, influencing consumer behavior and brand perception, as seen in the success of products like LABUBU and the backlash against brands that misalign with public sentiment [2][3] Group 1: Emotional Value and Consumer Behavior - LABUBU's popularity illustrates a shift in consumer behavior, where emotional satisfaction and participation in trends become key drivers of success, especially in a context of economic slowdown [3][4] - The rapid rise and subsequent decline of LABUBU in the second-hand market indicate that once a product becomes ubiquitous, its appeal diminishes, emphasizing the need for uniqueness in consumer goods [4][6] - The term "emotional value" is often used to describe non-utilitarian satisfaction derived from products, but its vague nature necessitates deeper exploration to understand its various implications [6][7] Group 2: Media Influence and Public Sentiment - The rise of social media and algorithm-driven content has amplified emotional responses, particularly anger, which can lead to rapid dissemination of sentiments and potential backlash against brands [15][18] - The phenomenon of "old school" or "老登" reflects a societal shift towards critiquing traditional narratives and embracing micro-narratives, indicating a growing desire for authenticity and relatability in public discourse [10][12] - The decline of traditional media has resulted in a polarized public discourse, where the absence of neutral reporting exacerbates tensions and complicates brand management in the face of public scrutiny [26][27] Group 3: Brand Management and Public Relations - The emergence of entrepreneur IPs, characterized by relatable and down-to-earth personas, highlights the importance of authenticity in brand representation, though it carries risks if personal missteps occur [22][23] - Companies face challenges in managing public perception, especially in an environment where emotional responses can quickly escalate into crises, necessitating a more strategic approach to communication [24][26] - The lack of a mediating voice in public discourse can lead to increased pressure on brands and entrepreneurs, making it essential for companies to navigate the complexities of modern communication effectively [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand market prices for LABUBU, a popular IP under Pop Mart, have significantly declined, with some products selling below their official prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics from speculative investment to consumer-driven demand [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - On January 7, the resale price for the LABUBU 3.0 "Frontline High Energy" series dropped to 400 yuan for a set of six boxes, a notable decrease from the official price [1]. - The average transaction price for LABUBU products fell from 83.5 yuan on December 30, 2025, to 78.5 yuan by January 7, 2026 [2][3]. - Over 60% of users surveyed expressed a bearish outlook on the future price trends of LABUBU products [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the price decline to a rational market correction, moving away from the "investment" narrative back to the essence of "consumer goods" [1][6]. - Factors influencing this shift include market saturation, insufficient appeal of new products, and changes in the macroeconomic environment [6]. Group 3: Sales Strategy Adjustments - Pop Mart has adjusted its sales strategy, allowing direct purchases of certain LABUBU products online, with some series selling over 500,000 units [7]. - However, the "Frontline High Energy" series remains unavailable for direct purchase, indicating a disparity in product availability [7]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Strategy - Pop Mart is accelerating its global expansion, with overseas revenue growth reported at 365%-370% year-on-year for Q3 2025, including significant increases in various regions [9]. - The company is adopting strategies from the luxury goods sector, focusing on scarcity and cultural value to transition from blind box products to a luxury brand [10].

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，展望2026年，预期泡泡玛特(09992)在IP多元化、产品创新，以及 跨领域变现方面取得突破，以支持持续增长。维持"买入"评级，目标价415港元。 该行认为，更重要的是泡泡玛特IP的运营及变现能力，能否持续创造价值。公司的长期策略聚焦于产 品、内容、社群及IP保护，旨在将LABUBU打造成一个长青的IP。其多元化IP策略亦应有助于增强抵御 单一IP周期风险的能力，并激发新的需求。授权业务能深度连结所有消费细分领域，有望成为泡泡玛特 另一个收入增长引擎。 该行认为在2024至25年取得显著成功后，市场开始关注若LABUBU热潮减退，泡泡玛特的长期增长路 径如何，LABUBU的新鲜感或许已暂时见顶，需待下一个爆款出现方能突破。 ...

该行认为在2024至25年取得显著成功后，市场开始关注若LABUBU热潮减退，泡泡玛特的长期增长路 径如何，LABUBU的新鲜感或许已暂时见顶，需待下一个爆款出现方能突破。 花旗发布研报称，展望2026年，预期泡泡玛特(09992)在IP多元化、产品创新，以及跨领域变现方面取 得突破，以支持持续增长。维持"买入"评级，目标价415港元。 该行认为，更重要的是泡泡玛特IP的运营及变现能力，能否持续创造价值。公司的长期策略聚焦于产 品、内容、社群及IP保护，旨在将LABUBU打造成一个长青的IP。其多元化IP策略亦应有助于增强抵御 单一IP周期风险的能力，并激发新的需求。授权业务能深度连结所有消费细分领域，有望成为泡泡玛特 另一个收入增长引擎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Pop Mart's long-term strategy focuses on products, content, community, and IP protection, aiming to establish LABUBU as a sustainable IP [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The diversified IP strategy is expected to enhance the company's ability to withstand risks associated with single IP cycles and stimulate new demand [1] - Licensing business is anticipated to deeply connect with all consumer segments, potentially becoming another revenue growth engine for Pop Mart [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the company is expected to achieve breakthroughs in IP diversification, product innovation, and cross-sector monetization to support sustained growth [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 415 [1]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the collectibles and IP (Intellectual Property) market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$33.82 billion as of January 5, 2026 Key Points Sales Performance and Market Expectations - Pop Mart's North America (NA) sales in 4Q25 are expected to be 25-30% lower than 3Q25, with total sales for 2025 projected to be below Rmb7 billion [3][4] - The market consensus for NA sales in 2025 is likely too low, with estimates around low Rmb6 billion [9] - The company anticipates Rmb7.1 billion in NA sales for 2025, with expectations of a rebound in 2026 driven by new product launches and improved sales from non-Labubu products [4][9] Product and IP Development - Labubu, a key product line, is expected to see enhanced designs and more launches in 2026, contributing to sales growth [4] - Non-Labubu products have shown significant growth, with sales increasing by 131% in 1H25 and projected to rise by approximately 120% in 2H25 [16] - The company has launched around 200 products in 2025, with only about 10 being Labubu-related, indicating a diversification strategy [16] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 are estimated at Rmb47.88 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 are Rmb11.63, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.3 [6] - The stock is currently trading at HK$196.20, with a price target of HK$325.00, indicating a potential upside of 66% [6] Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to capture the growing global "kidult" market, which is valued at over USD100 billion [24] - Pop Mart's business model is asset-light with high return on equity (ROE), supported by direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and strong pricing power [25] - The shift back to offline sales is seen as a positive development, enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty [12] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include uncertainties related to new product launches, potential inability to maintain product quality, and the impact of counterfeits on brand value [29][30][33] - Pricing management is crucial, as raising average selling prices (ASPs) could alienate core customers [32] - The company must effectively convert strong consumer interest in Labubu into sales across other IPs to sustain growth [34] Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is viewed as a top pick due to its potential to evolve into a global IP collectibles platform, leveraging its unique business model and strong brand equity in China and Asia [35][37] - The company is expected to deliver strong earnings growth, driven by successful product launches and expansion into new markets [35][37] Conclusion - Pop Mart is well-positioned for future growth, with a strong focus on product diversification and market expansion. However, it must navigate various risks to maintain its growth trajectory and investor confidence.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market is overly focused on Pop Mart's high-frequency sales data in the North American market, significantly underestimating the company's true value [1] Group 1: North American Sales Expectations - The widely circulated credit card consumption data suggests that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be around 6 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 25-30% in Q4 compared to Q3 [2] - Morgan Stanley's analysis predicts that Pop Mart's North American sales in 2025 will be 7.1 billion RMB, with Q4 sales remaining close to Q3 levels [2] - The firm estimates that the average annual sales per store in North America will reach 45-50 million RMB, indicating strong demand as new stores can recover their investment in 1-2 months [2] Group 2: Online and Offline Sales Dynamics - In the first half of the year, online sales accounted for approximately 60% of Pop Mart's North American market, driven further to 60-70% in Q3 due to Labubu pre-sales [3] - Offline sales have a more diverse IP distribution compared to online channels, enhancing opportunities for new IP exploration and cross-selling [3] - The experience in China and the Asia-Pacific region shows that physical stores are essential for cultivating repeat customers, who exhibit more stable purchasing behavior than social media-influenced consumers [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers and IP Diversification - Morgan Stanley highlights that the market is overlooking Pop Mart's sales of older Labubu plush toys in the second half of 2025, with more new products expected in 2026 [4] - The firm identifies the restoration of quarter-on-quarter growth and evidence of IP diversification as key catalysts for improving market sentiment [5] - The company is expected to accelerate growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, driven by continuous store openings, new customer acquisition, and product launches [5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - Pop Mart is positioned to capture the growing demand for "kidult" IP products globally, evolving into a global IP collectibles platform [6] - The company's business model is asset-light with high ROE, aiming for long-term high-quality returns while leading the global kidult trend [6] - At the current valuation, Pop Mart trades at approximately 16 times the 2026 P/E ratio, with a 21% profit growth expectation, potentially dropping to 12 times if sales reach 60 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Labubu series by Pop Mart, once considered a "hard currency" in the trendy toy market, has seen a drastic price drop of over 80% within six months, indicating a significant market correction and a shift from "investment products" back to "ordinary consumer goods" [1][3][5] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - The price of Labubu collectibles has plummeted, with some items that were once valued at thousands now listed for a fraction of that on second-hand platforms like Xianyu, reflecting a severe revaluation in the trendy toy market [3][5] - The regular Labubu products, originally priced between 59 to 79 yuan, are now being sold for as low as 49 yuan with shipping included, indicating a collapse in the pricing structure [5][6] - The overall heat index for Labubu products has dropped from a peak of 9.2 to 6.5, showcasing a significant decline in market interest [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - A substantial increase in supply has been identified as a core reason for the price drop, with new Labubu products frequently available at retail prices, breaking the previous scarcity model [5][7] - The shift in consumer demographics, with younger buyers purchasing for personal enjoyment rather than investment, has altered the market dynamics, leading to a decline in speculative buying [6][7] Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Shifts - The failure of the artificially created scarcity model in the trendy toy industry has prompted a shift from an "investment logic" to a "consumer logic," emphasizing genuine consumer interest over speculative value [7][8] - Pop Mart's recent strategy includes reducing reliance on single IPs and increasing the variety of products, moving away from blind box sales and enhancing collaborations with artists to improve product value [8][10] - The current market adjustment is seen as a necessary step towards sustainable growth, as the industry transitions from being perceived as "financial products" to "cultural consumer goods" [10]

Core Viewpoint - The availability of Labubu blind box products has improved on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, although some items remain out of stock, indicating a mixed supply situation across different channels and product lines [3][7]. Supply Situation - Consumers have reported that previously hard-to-find Labubu products are now more accessible, with some items still facing stock shortages [3][7]. - The "Labubu Frontline High Energy Series" remains largely out of stock on major online channels, while the "Labubu Heart Code Series" is available for purchase [3][7]. - Official customer service from Pop Mart confirmed recent restocking efforts but noted that restocking times are random and quantities are not disclosed, suggesting uncertainty in future availability [3][7]. Secondary Market Trends - Recent reports indicate that the secondary market for Labubu products has seen significant price drops, with the average price of the "Labubu Sit Party Rubber Plush Series" falling from 1478 yuan to approximately 632 yuan, nearing its original price of 594 yuan [4][8]. - The "Labubu 3.0 Frontline High Energy Series" experienced a price surge to 2500 yuan upon release, but has since seen a decline, with recent average transaction prices around 518 yuan, below the official price [4][8].